•This is a rather interesting interview of Richard Maybury by the DailyBell. It highlights what I have been saying about a coming global currency crisis and the return to asset backed (gold backed) currencies. Richard Maybury on the Collapse of the Anglo-American Empire and What It Means for You
Introduction: The former Global Affairs editor of MONEYWORLD, Richard Maybury is one of the most respected business and economics analysts in America. His articles have appeared in major publications. Books include “Whatever Happened to Penny Candy?” “Whatever Happened to Justice?” and “Evaluating Books: What Would Thomas Jefferson Think of This?” His current interest is “The Fall of the U.S. Empire”. His writings have been endorsed by top business leaders, and is a consultant to numerous investment firms in the U.S. and Europe. He is Editor of the newsletter, Richard Maybury’s U.S. & World Early Warning Report For Investors.
Daily Bell: We last interviewed you in 2009. Has the world’s economic picture gotten worse?
Richard Maybury: As far as production is concerned, I think that things have improved but the essential problem is the malinvestment that was created by the Federal Reserve counterfeiting dollars since 1913, and almost all that malinvestment is still out there and needs to be shaken out. The pain we have been going through since August of 2007 has essentially been for nothing because the federal government stopped the malinvestment, or most of it, from being shaken out, and that traumatic experience is yet to come. So, anybody who thinks we are getting to the end of this thing is dreaming.
Daily Bell: What’s the worst problem America is suffering from?
Richard Maybury: I think ethics. Nearly the entire population has been raised in schools that are under the control of government agencies and they have been taught that the government doesn’t need to obey ethical principals such as, “Thou shall not steal”. So, this has become part of the American culture. I don’t see any long-term solution for America or any of the rest of the world until they start accepting the fact that government has to be ethical, just like individuals.
Daily Bell: Is America essentially bankrupt?
Richard Maybury: America isn’t but the federal government sure is. I don’t think I need to get into statistics, but the federal government is about as hopeless as we have ever seen in history. I can’t think of any other government that ever got into this much trouble, but the country and the government are not the same things. Some individuals are bankrupt, some are prosperous, it varies from one person to the next, but most assuredly the federal government is a real financial basket case.
Daily Bell: How can America recover?
Richard Maybury: Well again we go back to ethics. We have to go back to obeying the rule of “Thou shall not steal”. The American founders went through all this two centuries ago. I am doing an article on this in the Early Warning Report. Thomas Jefferson for instance, in his first inaugural address laid out 16 principles for how the government should be run ethically. I think the time has come where we have to start re-learning what those principals are and the country is supposed to be about. I have become very optimistic when I look at the protests that are going on in the United States now, and there is a lot of focus on the constitution and the writings on the American founders. I think the American people are beginning to realize that there’s a lot they were not taught in school and they need to now learn what the country is supposed to be like. That’s a wonderful development and I hope it continues. We have to rediscover our origins, and a lot of people are beginning to do that.
Daily Bell: What will happen to the dollar?
Richard Maybury: I think the dollar, as we know it is dead or pretty close to it. Obviously it’s not dead yet but it’s another great big version of Tulipmania. This demand for not only the dollar but for all paper currency, fiat currency, it’s just Tulipmania. It’s been going on since 1971 when all currencies were converted to fiat currencies. So now we are seeing the process of the world bringing this calamity to an end. So the dollar and all other fiat currencies will no longer be fiat. They will be tied to something real, perhaps gold, perhaps a basket of commodities that includes gold, I don’t know, but the whole world is clearly a lot more interested now in holding real assets than fiat currencies. I think we are in the beginning of a great revolution of currencies where we are going to go back to the type of money that can’t be created without limits out of thin air.
Daily Bell: Will the EU be able to salvage the PIGS?
Richard Maybury: I would politely disagree with the phrasing of the question. It should be, Will Germany be able to salvage the PIGS? The answer is probably not in the long run because you can bleed the Germans for a while, but they will probably end up going broke if they try to keep bailing out the PIGS. And there are going to be more PIGS. There are many countries out there operating as welfare states and they are inherently unsound. So if the question were, will the German’s bail them out, I would say for a while, but then the Germans will be dragged down too.
Daily Bell: Let’s continue with some geopolitical questions. Is the euro going under?
Richard Maybury: Yes, I think the euro is going under but I don’t know when. It’s a fiat currency like the rest of them. It’s going to be wiped out too, or replaced by some form currency that cannot be created in unlimited quantities.
Daily Bell: Ireland just started printing its own euro notes. Is this a significant crack in the dike?
Richard Maybury: Yes, sure. Any time you give any human being the privilege of counterfeiting money, he’s probably going to do it, and do a lot. The Irish are just as human as the rest of us and they will succumb to the temptation to inflate the euro.
Daily Bell: Will the EU itself survive?
Richard Maybury: I hope not and I don’t think so. If you look back, say, 45 years, when the various countries in Europe were much more independent and they had their own currencies tied to gold, the choice that they had among currencies was a wonderful thing. Let’s say if you lived in France, and you saw your government counterfeiting francs in an irresponsible fashion, you could move your wealth into Swiss Francs or into German Marks, and I think before this Great Monetary Calamity is over, the Europeans are going to realize that those were nice choices to have and they are going to go back to that. I think they will break up into much more independent countries than they are now and the less power a central government can have… well that’s always a good thing because it means more liberty for the individual. I think they will move in that direction because they have tried the opposite and it’s not working so well.
Daily Bell: China is considered an economic powerhouse. For some two years we’ve been writing that China is the in the grip of an inflationary bubble. Is China headed for a hard landing?
Richard Maybury: Yes I think absolutely. Whenever you have someone counterfeiting money, whether it’s a government or a private individual, that money does not descend on the economy in a uniform blanket. It goes into specific areas. Those areas become hot spots and they attract businesses and investors and these businesses and investors create malinvestment. The Chinese government has been creating yuan in large quantities and creating these spots of malinvestment all over China and that has to be shaken out. Then you take a look at Chinese history. The Chinese have a history of violence and political upheaval that is just astounding. It’s probably the bloodiest history in the world when it comes to political upheaval. They may escape that but I don’t think that’s the way to bet. I think they will follow their heritage and there will be some terrible amount of bloodshed in China from the shake out of the malinvestment.
Daily Bell: What will this mean for the rest of the world?
Richard Maybury: There’s no way to know because you are asking what these individual Chinese politicians will decide to do and we don’t know what that is. They are like all politicians everywhere – they change their mind pretty much every day and when the bloodshed starts they’re surely going to change their minds every day, maybe every hour. There’s no way to know what they will do but it’s a good guess they will try to direct their population’s attention toward outside enemies. Then they may start picking fights with people and getting in wars. It’s just impossible to say. We also don’t know how many of them will survive but historically in these situations a lot of Chinese politicians end up hanging from lamp posts and so the smart ones will get out of China when the trouble starts. The dumb ones will stay and be killed and we don’t know who will survive or how they will behave.
Daily Bell: Will the powers-that-be use a worldwide depression to set up a new currency? Will it be the bancor?
Richard Maybury: As I remember the bancor was not based on anything real. It was just another fiat currency. It was Keynes’ attempt to create a fiat currency. When all this turmoil is over with the world is not going to want a fiat currency of any kind and the people will demand that whatever currency they accept is backed by something real – like gold or something else. So, as to your question, will the powers that be set up a new currency, I think they will try. They may try many times. And we may go through various successive issues of new currencies. A currency may rise and then be rejected and then a new fiat currency may emerge and then that will be rejected and so on. In the end, people will no longer accept fiat currency of any kind regardless of what you call it.
Poster Comment:
First and foremost, above everyone else, I listen to Richard Maybury. For one thing, he understands China is going to collapse.