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Title: How to Poke the Russian Bear in 3 Easy Steps
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Published: Oct 20, 2014
Author: Greg Guenthner
Post Date: 2014-10-20 16:53:53 by BTP Holdings
Keywords: None
Views: 39
Comments: 7

I see you’re interested in buying the dip in Russian stocks this morning.

But before you do, let me try to knock some sense into that skull of yours...

Late last week, I reminded you why we bid farewell to the big Russian bear back over the summer. At the time, Russia was one of the cheapest markets in the world. But cheap can always get even cheaper—and Russia is certainly no exception. With comic book supervillain Vlad Putin manning the controls from his secret Siberian lair, the Market Vectors Russia ETF (NYSE:RSX) has dropped a cold 20% since registering its late June highs.

Market Vectors Russia ETF

So you’re still looking to take a shot at Russian stocks?

Why? Because of a rapidly-plummeting ruble? Or the chance that these beaten-down names just might be finished with their largest declines?

Perhaps this reader can enlighten me…

“RSX is a very good choice for current purchase,” insists a value-minded reader. “It dipped below $21 [late last week]. It may not be the top-performing market over the next year, but it will likely gain more than most others, and because it's so strongly disliked it has very little additional potential downside. Therefore, it's a good choice even for relatively conservative investors. RSX has also formed several higher lows in 2014 which is a common precursor to a more extended uptrend. The very powerful media negativity toward Russia is serving as a strong confirming buy signal.”

OK… where to begin?

First of all, I’m not seeing those higher lows you’re talking about. In fact, RSX appears to be trading right near its year-to-date lows as I type. And as you already know, I also like to see strong negative sentiment when it comes to a potential turnaround trade. While that’s a point in your favor, negative sentiment alone isn’t a flawless “buy” signal.

Ideally, I’d like this nasty-looking chart to bottom out a little more before scooping up shares. However, if you really want to take a stab at an ultra-cheap market like Russia, here are the three steps you need to take: 1.Buy a small position. And by small, I mean small enough so you won’t miss the money. Don’t mortgage your house here… 2.Don’t look at RSX. At all. Buy your shares and close your eyes. Turn off any price alerts. Consider throwing your TV out the window—or maybe just block the major news networks 3.Wait 5 years. Put your chips on the table and let ‘em ride. Sixty months later, you could have yourself some serious profits…

If you can stick to this strategy, you have a shot at walking away from a Russian value trade without blowing up your brokerage account.

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#1. To: BTP Holdings (#0)

Anyone here who's in equities is asking for a fiscal hosing, imo.

“The most dangerous man to any government is the man who is able to think things out... without regard to the prevailing superstitions and taboos. Almost inevitably he comes to the conclusion that the government he lives under is dishonest, insane, intolerable.” ~ H. L. Mencken

Lod  posted on  2014-10-20   18:33:59 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#2. To: Lod (#1)

Anyone here who's in equities is asking for a fiscal hosing

No kidding. Equities are for the rich man to contend with. I am no such thing.

Right now the IRS is threatening to attach some of my disability pay for back taxes. They are indeed the bane of liberty in the U.S. There is no law that says one must pay the income tax. The IRS is merely the collection agency of the FED. ;)

"When bad men combine, the good must associate; else they will fall, one by one." Edmund Burke

BTP Holdings  posted on  2014-10-20   18:45:03 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#3. To: BTP Holdings (#2)

Do you have Cracking the Code by Peter Hendrickson? Supposedly it's the definitive manual on de-fanging the irs.

I've not tried it, yet.

“The most dangerous man to any government is the man who is able to think things out... without regard to the prevailing superstitions and taboos. Almost inevitably he comes to the conclusion that the government he lives under is dishonest, insane, intolerable.” ~ H. L. Mencken

Lod  posted on  2014-10-20   18:59:53 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#4. To: BTP Holdings (#0)

Sixty months later, you could have yourself some serious profits…

Could???

Love that.

Cynicom  posted on  2014-10-20   19:37:05 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#5. To: Lod (#3)

Do you have Cracking the Code by Peter Hendrickson? Supposedly it's the definitive manual on de-fanging the irs.

Nope.

There is no better method than the one used by Gemini Investments Research Group.

First, you need to become the Secured Party. Then, your claim takes priority over all others. You must file your Security Agreement with the Secretary of State of your State. (Call to find out the filing fee. In Missouri it is $27)

My Security Agreement is on file with them right now. Then you can have an Assignment of Account made up for you. This will "pay" any claim the State Tax Agency may have, plus it works with the IRS. And, you can even use it to "pay" traffic fines in Court. I've used it and it works like a charm. If they "dishonor" your presentment, they (the clerk of the court) must pay a default judgment. This means they owe treble damages.

Here is the number for the conference call. The call is held on Thursday at 8 PM Eastern time. 857-232-0158 PIN 889303

The cost to have your Security Agreement made up for you is $400 in the form of four totally blank Postal Money Orders of $100 each. I will PM you the address if you are interested.

This is the best way I know of to beat them at their own game. ;)

"When bad men combine, the good must associate; else they will fall, one by one." Edmund Burke

BTP Holdings  posted on  2014-10-20   20:59:14 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#6. To: BTP Holdings (#5)

So why is irs trying to take your disability payments? if you have this "disclaimer" in place?

I don't get it.

Thanks.

Keep us posted, please.

“The most dangerous man to any government is the man who is able to think things out... without regard to the prevailing superstitions and taboos. Almost inevitably he comes to the conclusion that the government he lives under is dishonest, insane, intolerable.” ~ H. L. Mencken

Lod  posted on  2014-10-20   21:04:38 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#7. To: Lod (#6)

So why is irs trying to take your disability payments? if you have this "disclaimer" in place?

The IRS had liens against me in Laclede county. I had some lawyers challenge them, and they could not prove I owed the tax. They were forced to withdraw the liens.

Now, I need to find out how much they say I owe. Then I can get an Assignment of Account made up and it will "pay" the tax.

The filing is not a disclaimer. It is simply a legal filing in the UCC that gives your claim priority over all others. It is simple to comprehend.

"When bad men combine, the good must associate; else they will fall, one by one." Edmund Burke

BTP Holdings  posted on  2014-10-20   21:12:45 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


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