Want... By increasing the country's military budget every year, China's government is moving closer to challenging the US-led strategic status quo in the Asia-Pacific since 1945, writes Benjamin Herscovitch, a researcher from the Centre for Independent Studies, an Australian libertarian think tank based in St Leonards, in a commentary written for the Business Spectator on March 11. During the annual meeting of China's National People's Congress last week, NPC spokesperson Fu Ying said that the budget for the People's Liberation Army is expected to increase by 10% this year. To ease concerns of policymakers in Tokyo, Taipei, Manila and Washington DC, it was pointed out that this is the smallest percentage increase to the defense budget in five years. This may be of little comfort however to China's neighbors feeling the pressure of Beijing's aggressive expansion in the East and South China seas.
"A radical rewrite of the globe's military hierarchy is under way, and China will likely end up on top," Herscovitch wrote. China's real military spending in 2013 was approximately US$188 billion, according to a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. This figure was roughly equivalent to 2% of the national GDP. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the levels of US and Chinese military spending averaged 4% and 2% of GDP, Herscovitch said.
The author said however that the Global Economy Watch Projections will eventually see the US defense budget expand to approximately US$1.7 trillion by 2050, with Chinese military spending rising to US$1.1 trillion if military spending as a percentage of GDP remains constant in the coming decades. This is likely to constitute a massive military power shift in China's favor. China's leadership may even be encouraged to push for much higher levels of military spending under this trend, he said.
Even though this year's 10% rise in the Chinese defense budget is "modest" compared to previous years, it is still well above the country's expected GDP growth rate of 7% for 2015. China has made its designs on the resource-rich South China Sea known with massive land reclamation activities aimed at establishing military bases. Beijing has not renounced the possible use of force to take Taiwan and is equally uncompromising in its claims to territory administered by India and Indonesia.
The author said that India and Indonesia are likely to become two of the world's top five economic and military powers by 2050. With its economic and strategic interests growing worldwide, China needs to take up the responsibilities of a great global power, Herscovitch said. More military operations may be needed to maintain peace in South Sudan and Gulf of Aden. Under this scenario, Herscovitch believes that China will eventually spend at least 4% of its GDP on the military and possess the world's largest armed forces by 2050.