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By Chris Bambery
Something momentous is happening in the current British general election and its taking place in Scotland, that rebellious land to the north of England.
Since the Second World War Britain has been governed by either the centre right Conservative Party (most famous leader during those years: Margaret Thatcher) or the centre left Labour Party (most famous leader during those years: Tony Blair).
True from 2010 until now the Conservatives under current Prime Minister David Cameron were only able to take office in coalition with the smaller of the three established parties, the Liberal Democrats, who claim to sit in the centre of British politics.
The British general election currently looks set to produce no overall winner. Either the Conservatives or Labour will either have to try and form a coalition with other parties, or rely on less formal deals with them to secure their votes for the incoming government’s programme (read out by the Queen at the start of the parliamentary session).
This is a big change for a country used to one party government. Tony Blair, for instance, led Labour to three election victories, two of which were landslides in which he won a huge majority in parliament).
Scots face ‘seismic change’
But there is another seismic change taking place. In Scotland, where Labour has ruled the roost for decades and the Conservatives have just one MP, the pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP) looks set to sweep the board.
Currently opinion polls have the SNP winning 30 to 50 of the 59 Scottish seats in the British parliament. The first figure is too low, the latter probably too high. Most of those will be seats Labour has taken for granted for years past.
Such losses in Scotland are one reason why Labour is unlikely to achieve an outright majority following the 7 May election.
This was not supposed to be. Last September the pro-independence side lost a referendum on whether Scotland should quit Great Britain. The British elite threw everything into achieving a No vote in the final weeks after polls showed the Yes side might won. Business leaders threatened they’d pull of out Scotland, the normally sober “Financial Times” claimed supermarkets would hike up food prices in an independent Scotland and the head of the European Union stated Scotland would not be allowed to remain part of it (something that was false as he knew).
The Labour Party spearheaded the No campaign with the former prime minister, Gordon Brown, taking charge in the final days, and scaring older people into believing they would lose their state pension if they voted No.
The possibility of Scotland going independent matters to the British elite. Having lost an Empire to lose Scotland would still further Britain’s great power status, endangering its permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council. US President Barack Obama chimed in calling for a No vote, reflecting worries in Washington about Britain, a key ally, loosing prestige and power.
So when the No vote won with 55 percent last autumn, there was mighty relief in ruling circles. That was what they thought: Scotland’s place in the British state was guaranteed. But oh no, it was not.
A similar sense of panic is now greeting the seemingly unstoppable rise of the SNP. Their new leader, Nicola Sturgeon, has proved a hit in England following her appearance on TV debates between party leaders with her anti-austerity message and her opposition to nuclear weapons – based in Scotland and with the British state ready to spend a fortune it can’t afford in replacing.
In Scotland, an increase in the numbers involved in debates and discussions
What is happening in Scotland? First of all the independence debate last year meant a sudden increase in the numbers involved in debates and discussions, across the land and particularly in working class communities Labour had ignored, taking their support for granted. The majority of those who voted Yes did so to escape government by the Conservatives, whom few vote for in Scotland, austerity and for more democracy than on offer from a British parliament stuck in the 19th century.
These people turned on Labour for allying with the Conservatives in support of a No vote and they have not forgiven Labour. Scotland’s major city, Glasgow, voted Yes. Labour have run it since the 1930s but all the polls suggest they have lost it in this election.
Many of those Labour voters who voted No were scared into doing so or accepted the promise from Gordon Brown that he would ensure greater powers for the Scottish parliament (Scotland has a degree of autonomy within Britain like Catalonia in Spain or Quebec in Canada). That has not happened and people feel cheated.
But above all Labour finds itself being attacked from the left by Sturgeon and the SNP, something beyond its ken. Labour in Scotland accepted the strategy of Tony Blair that it had to move rightwards and embrace the free market with vigour. The SNP saw its chance and began to adopt the old social democratic rhetoric Labour had just dumped.
In the 2007 Scottish parliamentary elections it overtook Labour and formed a minority government and in 2010 they won a complete majority. In truth the left wing rhetoric of the SNP is often in contrast with what they do in office but it’s what most Scots want to hear because the Conservatives are hated in large parts of the land.
In this election campaign Labour has been unable to land a serious blow on the SNP. Its leader in Scotland, Jim Murphy, supported the 2003 invasion of Iraq and is a loud supporter of Israel. He has been unable to turn things around and Labour fears he will lose his seat.
CB/HSN
Analyst Chris Bambery is a leading member of the International Socialist Group in Scotland. The Scottish political activist and commentator is the author of A People’s History of Scotland and The Second World War: A Marxist History. (4) Comments
[sciaccadana]
As an American, i'm shocked to learn that T. Blair is Labour left center. He's still acting as a neocon. Was he a sleeper thrown in from the beginning? Politicians in the UK as in the US are all the same when it comes to foreign policy: Hegemony. sciaccadana
[Aberamsay]
Labour vs Conservative is smoke and mirrors for fooling the audience. Democracy has never existed in the UK and never will. There is one ruling party and that's the royal family, and there is another family that owns the country and decides everything and that's Rotschilds. The rest is theater of absurd.
[Milorad Crni]
Scotland should join Scandinavia.