Donald Trump Is Shocking, Vulgar and Right
And, my dear fellow Republicans, he's all your fault. About 15 years ago, I said something nasty on CNN about Donald Trumps hair. I cant now remember the context, assuming there was one. In any case, Trump saw it and left a message the next day.
Its true you have better hair than I do, Trump said matter-of-factly. But I get more pussy than you do. Click.
At the time, Id never met Trump and I remember feeling amused but also surprised hed say something like that. Now the pattern seems entirely familiar. The message had all the hallmarks of a Trump attack: shocking, vulgar and indisputably true.
Not everyone finds it funny. On my street in Northwest Washington, D.C., theres never been anyone as unpopular as Trump. The Democrats assume hes a bigot, pandering to the morons out there in the great dark space between Georgetown and Brentwood. The Republicans (those relatively few who live here) fully agree with that assessment, and they hate him even more. They sense Trump is a threat to them personally, to their legitimacy and their livelihoods. Idi Amin would get a warmer reception in our dog park.
I understand it of course. And, except in those moments when the self-righteous silliness of rich people overwhelms me and I feel like moving to Maine, I can see their points, some of them anyway. Trump might not be my first choice for president. Im not even convinced he really wants the job. Hes smart enough to know it would be tough for him to govern.
But just because Trump is an imperfect candidate doesnt mean his candidacy cant be instructive. Trump could teach Republicans in Washington a lot if only they stopped posturing long enough to watch carefully. Heres some of what they might learn:
He Exists Because You Failed
American presidential elections usually amount to a series of overcorrections: Clinton begat Bush, who produced Obama, whose lax border policies fueled the rise of Trump. In the case of Trump, though, the GOP shares the blame, and not just because his fellow Republicans misdirected their ad buys or waited so long to criticize him. Trump is in part a reaction to the intellectual corruption of the Republican Party. That ought to be obvious to his critics, yet somehow it isnt.
Consider the conservative nonprofit establishment, which seems to employ most right-of-center adults in Washington. Over the past 40 years, how much donated money have all those think tanks and foundations consumed? Billions, certainly. (Someone better at math and less prone to melancholy should probably figure out the precise number.) Has America become more conservative over that same period? Come on. Most of that cash went to self-perpetuation: Salaries, bonuses, retirement funds, medical, dental, lunches, car services, leases on high-end office space, retreats in Mexico, more fundraising. Unless you were the direct beneficiary of any of that, youd have to consider it wasted.
Pretty embarrassing. And yet theyre not embarrassed. Many of those same overpaid, underperforming tax-exempt sinecure-holders are now demanding that Trump be stopped. Why? Because, as his critics have noted in a rising chorus of hysteria, Trump represents an existential threat to conservatism.
Let that sink in. Conservative voters are being scolded for supporting a candidate they consider conservative because it would be bad for conservatism? And by the way, the people doing the scolding? Theyre the ones whove been advocating for open borders, and nation-building in countries whose populations hate us, and trade deals that eliminated jobs while enriching their donors, all while implicitly mocking the base for its worries about abortion and gay marriage and the pace of demographic change. Now theyre telling their voters to shut up and obey, and if they dont, theyre liberal.
It turns out the GOP wasnt simply out of touch with its voters; the party had no idea who its voters were or what they believed. For decades, party leaders and intellectuals imagined that most Republicans were broadly libertarian on economics and basically neoconservative on foreign policy. That may sound absurd now, after Trump has attacked nearly the entire Republican catechism (he savaged the Iraq War and hedge fund managers in the same debate) and been greatly rewarded for it, but that was the assumption the GOP brain trust operated under. They had no way of knowing otherwise. The only Republicans they talked to read the Wall Street Journal too.
On immigration policy, party elders were caught completely by surprise. Even canny operators like Ted Cruz didnt appreciate the depth of voter anger on the subject. And why would they? If you live in an affluent ZIP code, its hard to see a downside to mass low-wage immigration. Your kids dont go to public school. You dont take the bus or use the emergency room for health care. No immigrant is competing for your job. (The day Hondurans start getting hired as green energy lobbyists is the day my neighbors become nativists.) Plus, you get cheap servants, and get to feel welcoming and virtuous while paying them less per hour than your kids make at a summer job on Nantucket. Its all good.
Apart from his line about Mexican rapists early in the campaign, Trump hasnt said anything especially shocking about immigration. Control the border, deport lawbreakers, try not to admit violent criminals these are the ravings of a Nazi? This is the ghost of George Wallace that a Politico piece described last August? A lot of Republican leaders think so. No wonder their voters are rebelling.
Truth Is Not Only A Defense, Its Thrilling
When was the last time you stopped yourself from saying something you believed to be true for fear of being punished or criticized for saying it? If you live in America, it probably hasnt been long. Thats not just a talking point about political correctness. Its the central problem with our national conversation, the main reason our debates are so stilted and useless. You cant fix a problem if you dont have the words to describe it. You cant even think about it clearly.
This depressing fact made Trumps political career. In a country where almost everyone in public life lies reflexively, its thrilling to hear someone say what he really thinks, even if you believe hes wrong. Its especially exciting when you suspect hes right.
A temporary ban on Muslim immigration? That sounds a little extreme (meaning nobody else has said it recently in public). But is it? Millions of Muslims have moved to Western Europe over the past 50 years, and a sizable number of them still havent assimilated. Instead, they remain hostile and sometimes dangerous to the cultures that welcomed them. By any measure, that experiment has failed. Whats our strategy for not repeating it here, especially after San Bernardinoattacks that seemed to come out of nowhere? Invoke American exceptionalism and hope for the best? Before Trump, that was the plan.
Republican primary voters should be forgiven for wondering who exactly is on the reckless side of this debate. At the very least, Trump seems like he wants to protect the country.
Evangelicals understand this better than most. You read surveys that indicate the majority of Christian conservatives support Trump, and then you see the video: Trump on stage with pastors, looking pained as they pray over him, misidentifying key books in the New Testament, and in general doing a ludicrous imitation of a faithful Christian, the least holy roller ever. You wonder as you watch this: How could they be that dumb? Hes so obviously faking it.
They know that already. I doubt there are many Christian voters who think Trump could recite the Nicene Creed, or even identify it. Evangelicals have given up trying to elect one of their own. What theyre looking for is a bodyguard, someone to shield them from mounting (and real) threats to their freedom of speech and worship. Trump fits that role nicely, better in fact than many church-going Republicans. For eight years, there was a born-again in the White House. Howd that work out for Christians, here and in Iraq?
Washington Really Is Corrupt
Everyone beats up on Washington, but most of the people I know who live here love it. Of course they do. Its beautiful, the people are friendly, weve got good restaurants, not to mention full employment and construction cranes on virtually every corner. If you work on Capitol Hill or downtown, its hard to walk back from lunch without seeing someone you know. Its a warm bath. Nobody wants to leave.
But lets pretend for a second this isnt Washington. Lets imagine its the capital of an African country, say Burkina Faso, and we are doing a study on corruption. Probably the first question wed ask: How many government officials have close relatives who make a living by influencing government spending? A huge percentage of them? OK. Case closed. Ouagadougou is obviously a very corrupt city.
Thats how the rest of the country views D.C. Washington is probably the richest city in America because the people who live there have the closest proximity to power. That seems obvious to most voters. Its less obvious to us, because everyone here is so cheerful and familiar, and were too close to it. Chairman so-and-sos son-in-law lobbies the committee? That doesnt seem corrupt. Hes such a good guy.
All of which explains why almost nobody in Washington caught the significance of Trumps finest moment in the first debate. One of the moderators asked, in effect: if youre so opposed to Hillary Clinton, why did she come to your last wedding? It seemed like a revealing, even devastating question.
Trumps response, delivered without pause or embarrassment: Because I paid her to be there. As if she was the wedding singer, or in charge of the catering.
Even then, Ill confess, I didnt get it. (Why would you pay someone to come to your wedding?) But the audience did. Trump is the ideal candidate to fight Washington corruption not simply because he opposes it, but because he has personally participated in it. Hes not just a reformer; like most effective populists, hes a whistleblower, a traitor to his class. Before he became the most ferocious enemy American business had ever known, Teddy Roosevelt was a rich guy. His privilege wasn't incidental; it was key to his appeal. Anyone can peer through the window in envy. It takes a real man to throw furniture through it from the inside.
If Trump is leading a populist movement, many of his Republican critics have joined an elitist one. Deriding Trump is an act of class solidarity, visible evidence of refinement and proof that you live nowhere near a Wal-Mart. Early last summer, in a piece that greeted Trump when he entered the race, National Review described the candidate as a ridiculous buffoon with the worst taste since Caligula. Virtually every other critique of Trump from the right has voiced similar aesthetic concerns.
Why is the Party of Ideas suddenly so fixated on fashion and hair? Maybe all dying institutions devolve this way, from an insistence on intellectual rigor to a flabby preoccupation with appearances. It happened in the Episcopal Church, once renowned for its liturgy, now a stop on architectural and garden tours. Only tourists go there anymore.
He Could Win
Of all the dumb things that have been said about Trump by people who were too slow to get finance jobs and therefore wound up in journalism, perhaps the stupidest of all is the one you hear most: Hell get killed in the general! This is a godsend for Democrats! Forty-state wipeout! And so it goes mindlessly on.
Actually and this is no endorsement of Trump, just an interjection of reality thats a crock. Of the Republicans now running, Trump likely has the best chance to beat Hillary Clinton, for two reasons:
First, hes the only Republican who can meaningfully expand the pie. Polls show a surprisingly large number of Democrats open to Trump. In one January survey by the polling form Mercury Analytics , almost 20 percent said theyd consider crossing over to him from Hillary. Even if thats double the actual number, its still stunning. Could Ted Cruz expect to draw that many Democrats? Could Jeb?
Its an article of faith in Washington that Trump would tank the partys prospects with minority voters. Sounds logical, especially if youre a sensitive white liberal who considers the suggestion of a border wall a form of hate speech, but consider the baseline. In the last election, Romney got 6 percent of the black vote, and 27 percent of Hispanics. Trump, whos energetic, witty and successful, will do worse? I wouldnt bet on it.
But the main reason Trump could win is because hes the only candidate hard enough to call Hillarys bluff. Republicans will say almost anything about Hillary, but almost none challenge her basic competence. She may be evil, but shes tough and accomplished. This we know, all of us.
But do we? Or is this understanding of Hillary just another piety we repeat out of unthinking habit, the political equivalent of, you can be whatever you want to be, or breakfast is the most important meal of the day? Trump doesnt think Hillary is impressive and strong. He sees her as brittle and afraid.
He may be right, based on his exchange with her just before Christmas. During a speech in Grand Rapids, Michigan, Trump said Hillary had been schlonged by Obama in the 2008 race. In response, the Clinton campaign called Trump a sexist. Its a charge Hillary has leveled against virtually every opponent shes faced, but Trump responded differently. Instead of scrambling to donate to breast cancer research, he pointed out that Hillary spent years attacking the alleged victims of her husbands sexual assaults. That ended the conversation almost immediately.
It was the most effective possible response, though more obvious than brilliant. Why was Trump the only Republican to use it?
Republican primary voters may be wondering the same thing. Or maybe they already know. They seem to know a lot about Trump, more than the people who run their party. They know that he isnt a conventional ideological conservative. They seem relieved. They can see that hes emotionally incontinent. They find it exciting.
Washington Republicans look on at this in horror, their suspicions confirmed. Beneath the thin topsoil of rural conservatism, they see the seeds of proto-fascism beginning to sprout. But thats not quite right. Republicans in the states arent dangerous. Theyve just evaluated the alternatives and decided those are worse.