This Model Has Predicted Almost Every Election Since 1916 – Here’s Who It Says Will Win In 2016 Screen Shot 2016-04-04 at 11.24.49 AM
The entire election cycle leading up to the 2016 elections is one of the most bizarre in recent memory.
Who would have ever thought that Clinton, dogged by allegations of illegal conduct and a dereliction of duty, would still be a viable candidate this late in the game?
Or who could have predicted a socialist Senator from Vermont would be giving her a serious run for her money?
And then who would have expected one of the leading GOP candidates would be a wealthy Real Estate tycoon with zero political experience?
Or that a freshman Senator from Texas would be right there with him, neck and neck to the finish line?
It’s been a crazy year indeed.
Conservatives are worried based on what’s happening inside their party they might need to prepare for the eventuality of a Democrat president being elected. However, according to several economic models which have successfully predicted almost every election since 1916 it’s an unfounded fear.
As The Hill writes:
Republicans are expected to win the White House under two economic models that have accurately forecast presidential elections for decades.
‘As economists this is a very unusual election and there’s a lot more uncertainty introduced this time around that could upset the balance and the historical relationship of how marginal voters vote,’ said Dan White, an economist with Moody’s Analytics who oversees the firm’s monthly election model.
…
Ray Fair, a Yale professor who launched his model in 1978, told The Hill that while all elections include unruly features that an economic model can’t pick up “this one seems particularly unusual.”
‘If there’s any time in which personalities would trump the economy it would be this election,’ Fair said.
Fair’s model has correctly forecast all but three presidential races since 1916, but was wrong in 2012, when it predicted a narrow loss for Obama to Mitt Romney.
It relies on just three pieces of information: per capita growth rate of gross domestic product in the three quarters before the election, inflation over the entire presidential term and the number of quarters during the term when growth per capita growth exceeds 3.2 percent.
Given the sluggish economy, his model doesn’t show enough growth under Obama to predict a Democratic win in the election. In his most recent forecast from January, his model predicts a 45.66 percent share of the presidential vote for the Democratic candidate — less than the 49 percent it predicted in 2012.
Now it should be noted a competing model has the Democrats winning in 2016.
The model cites the improving favorability of voters feelings towards Obama as a reason this will happen.
Poster Comment:
Trump for President.