As Russian planes bombard Syrian rebels, debate over anti-aircraft missiles returns
SYRIA-CONFLICT
Rebel fighters monitor the sky holding an FN-6 man-portable air-defense system, or MANPAD, in the Syrian village of Teir Maalah, on the northern outskirts of Homs, on April 20, 2016. (MAHMOUD TAHA / AFP/Getty Images) Nabih Bulos and Brian BennettContact Reporter
It has been a difficult month for the Syrian air force and its Russian allies. In April alone, rebel forces claimed to bring down three aircraft: two Syrian jets and one Russian helicopter. Each incident sparked a frenzy of speculation about whether the opposition had obtained anti-aircraft missiles that could bring down planes, known as Man-Portable Air Defense Systems, or MANPADS.
The rebels had obtained a limited supply of the missiles from Syrian army depots and from the government of Qatar earlier in the war. They have long been asking the West to supply them with more.
As President Bashar Assad’s government and the Russians step up their airstrikes on rebel-held areas -- and civilian casualties mount – those calls have gained renewed urgency. But new technology might make MANPADS ineffective against Russian planes, while the risk that the weapons could ultimately be turned against the West remains.
See the most-read stories this hour >>
The U.S. has been reluctant to give MANPADS to the rebels, for fear the weapons could fall into the hands of extremist groups and be used against civilian airliners or Western military aircraft in other conflict zones. Critics have pointed to the caches of antitank missiles that made their way to hard-line and Islamist factions in Syria after the CIA gave them to select rebel factions. “It only takes one stray MANPAD to sneak into Turkey and that would be a very bad thing,” a U.S. official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal concerns about supplying the weapons.
Despite Syrian truce, Aleppo residents live in 'state of terror'
Russia has been conducting more frequent airstrikes in northern Syria in recent days, particularly around the country's largest city, Aleppo. The country has said it is targeting positions held by the Al Qaeda affiliate in Syria, Nusra Front, but U.S. intelligence officials believe Russia is targeting forces opposed to the Syrian government.
The pressure on the U.S. and its allies in the region to provide heavier weapons to opposition militias will increase if Russian-backed Syrian forces fully break the ceasefire, which has held in most of Syria for six weeks, the official said. Last month, the Wall Street Journal reported that the CIA is preparing a “Plan B” in case the ceasefire completely crumbles that involves supplying vetted moderate rebel fighters with MANPADS.
NEWSLETTER: Get the day's top headlines from Times Editor Davan Maharaj >>
Gulf countries that have supplied the rebels with missiles, such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar, say that with Russia’s entry into the war on the side of Assad’s forces in September, the introduction of the weapons would swing the tide of the war in the rebels’ favor. “We believe that introducing surface-to-air missiles in Syria is going to change the balance of power on the ground,” said Saudi Foreign Minister Adel Jubair in an interview with Der Spiegel. “It will allow the moderate opposition to be able to neutralize the helicopters and aircraft that are dropping chemicals and have been carpet-bombing them, just like surface-to-air missiles in Afghanistan were able to change the balance of power there.”
“That place is awash in MANPADS,” Director of National Intelligence James R. Clapper told reporters in Washington on April 25. “The regime had them, there are active procurement networks, black markets, whatever,” he said.
Click for Full Text!
Poster Comment:
Sending Stinger missiles to Afghanistan shifted the balance of power to the rebel forces who were fighting the Soviet occupation. It could do the same in Syria with MANPADS.