Bold Jose Quintana trade addresses Cubs' biggest need, creates more options
Sporting News
Ryan Fagan
3 hrs ago
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Hey there, Chicago. That was fun.
Baseball’s Windy City rivals made one heck of a fascinating deal on Thursday, kicking off what should be a thoroughly entertaining trade season. The White Sox sent lefty ace Jose Quintana to the Cubs for a solid four-player package of prospects, headlined by Eloy Jimenez, the outfielder who was ranked as the No. 5 prospect in the sport by Baseball America in its midseason update, and right-hander Dylan Cease, who was No. 83 on that same list.
Yeah. Hefty stuff.
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Prospects always carry an inherent element of risk, of course, but on paper this is a very good haul for the White Sox (Jimenez and Cease were the only two Cubs prospects on that BA list, btw).
Right now, though, let’s talk about what this means for the Cubs and the 2017 season.
They were in a bit of a predicament. The Cubs won the World Series last year — obviously, you knew that — and returned the top four pitchers from that rotation. That group, which was stellar in 2016 and had similar expectations this season, has been mediocre (and that’s being kind) in 2017.
That’s a difficult situation, especially considering three of those guys — veterans Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta and John Lackey — have been rotation regulars all season. Their production has just taken a hit. Lester’s ERA has gone from 2.44 to 4.25, Arrieta’s from 3.10 to 4.35 and Lackey’s from 3.35 to 5.20. Kyle Hendricks just returned from the DL, but he went from an NL-best 2.13 ERA last year to 4.09 in his 11 starts in 2017.
It’s easy to make changes when injuries knock a guy out of the rotation long-term, or if a less-than-established youngster/journeyman has a couple of rough outings. But we’re talking about three established, respected veterans and last year’s NL ERA leader. You don’t just dump those pieces out of a rotation easily.
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But the truth is, we’re three-and-a-half months into the season, and it’s pretty clear that, without some sort of unforeseen revival, that rotation wasn’t good enough to make the playoffs. And it certainly wasn’t good enough for the Cubs to repeat as World Series champs, which is pretty much the only goal that matters at this point.
Enter Jose Quintana.
He’s a 28-year-old lefty with a career 3.41 ERA entering this season. Quintana struggled early in 2017, but has a 2.70 ERA in seven starts since the beginning of June. The reason the price was so steep is Quintana’s contract situation is very team-friendly; he’s under club control through 2020, should the club kick in no-brainer options for 2019 and 2020 (both $10.5 million per).
He’s probably the Cubs’ best starter at this point, though you won’t see an official acknowledgment of that by the team, not with veterans Lester and Arrieta mostly sharing that nod. As long at Hendricks throws well in his return, Quintana’s arrival probably means Lackey is out of the playoff equation, should the Cubs get there.
They’ve been talked about as if they’re still the favorites in the NL Central because they’ve only been a game or two back of the Brewers, but they enter the second half five-and-a-half back. And it’s well past time to admit that Milwaukee is a legitimately good team — the Brewers have 50 wins, which is close to the 52 the NL East-leading Nationals have.
Something else to keep in mind. Lackey’s a free agent after the season, and if he’s not part of the playoff equation — he’s probably behind fifth-starter options Eddie Butler and Mike Montgomery, too — maybe the Cubs try to trade him and get something for beyond 2017. It won’t be much, but anything is more than they’d get when he walks as a free agent (assuming a qualifying offer isn’t remotely likely).
Another thing to consider: This probably signals the end of Arrieta’s time with the Cubs. He’s a free agent after the season, and his up-and-down 2017 might make the club hesitant to give him the money and the years he certainly will ask for (he’ll be 32 next spring). It’s not that they can’t, it’s that they could conceivably choose not to, especially with Quintana in the fold through 2020.
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So if he’s not in the long-term plans, maybe he’s not in the short-term plans, either. This is pure speculation and it’s probably not going to happen, but it’s not inconceivable to imagine a scenario in which the Cubs trade Arrieta to another contender looking to make a playoff push. If they get the right return — more than the compensation value of what they’d get when he leaves as a free agent — that helps replace the prospects lost in the Quintana deal.
The Quintana deal helps the Cubs for 2017 and for the longer term. Dealing Arrieta would allow them to address the longer term, too, and it would be far from the most stunning deal team president Theo Epstein has ever pulled off. Remember, he traded superstars Nomar Garciaparra and Manny Ramirez in separate deals when he was calling the shots in Boston.
And Thursday’s bold move means he has options to possibly make at least one more bold move in 2017.
Poster Comment:
It is always all about pitching.