Alabama Mad: Before Tuesdays Alaabama Republican senatorial primary, Chamber of Commerce strategist Scott Reed said his organization had gone all in for incumbent Luther Strange in order to remind [populist ex-Trump aide Stephen] Bannon whos in charge,
Mission Accomplished! The Chambers candidate lost in a 55-45 rout to Bannons candidate, Roy Moore, a former judge once regarded as too much of a religious zealot to make it all the way to the U.S. Senate.
Here are 5 reasons why this outcome is significant, not counting the obvious one (GOP primary voters were POd at what Reed boasted was the governing wing of the party i.e. the GOP Establishment).
1. Moore won without Trump: Only a few days ago it was fashionable to declare there is no such thing as Trumpismthere was only Trump, and his changing positions. Trumps voters would simply follow whichever way their leader led even, most controversially, into a deal with Democrats to give formal amnesty to the illegal immigrants known as Dreamers, who had been protected by an Obama executive action (DACA). But, in Alabama, Trump said Follow Big Luther and his base said, No thanks. Weve found a Trumpier candidate. Turns out there is such a thing as Trumpism without Trump:
2. Moore won without Drudge: This ones more surprising. Drudges website has been a rock of support for both Trump and Trumps underlying cause of immigration-skepticism. Given the pro-immigration bias of the mainstream press, hes seemed indispensable. Populists winning an election without him was like
Moby Grape without Bob Mosley [LeBron-ed] the Cleveland Cavaliers winning without LeBron James! But thats what happpened. In recent months, Drudge has seemed more in tune with Jared & Ivanka than Bannon. The site didnt feature many articles on the Alabama race as it headed down the stretchbut a few hours before the polls opened there was a beautiful picture of Ivanka, who was on her way to Detroit. In the long run, Drudge is probably still indispensable. But the idea that the king of alt media could be sidelined and scrappy Breitbart would fill the void must terrify the GOP governing wing.
3. Bannon won: They mocked when Bannon left the White House and pledged a vague campaign to somehow support Trump while still attacking him as he strayed from his former populist America First ideas on immigration, trade, and war. Heres A.B. Stoddard of RealClearPolitics:
Bannons new self-described role as wingman growling from outside instead of inside the White House where as chief strategist he fought openly against the globalist forces he believed included Trumps family members isnt going very well. Um
recalculating! 4. Jared Kushner was wrong again: The presidents son-in-law advised him to fire FBI director James Comey. Kushner was also behind the hiring of Anthony Scaramucci, who was supposed to make the White House communications operation more professional and instead quickly drowned himself in a sea of serotonin. They say three examples make a trend and, sure enough, it seems that Jared was also part of the Establishment effort to inveigle Trump into supporting Luther Strange: Jeff Roe, Stranges top consultant, fed regular updates to Jared Kushner, the presidents son-in-law and senior adviser.
How much awful advice from his son-in-law is the President going to take?
5. Immigration Amnesty lost big: Two weeks before the Alabama election, some polls apparently showed a very tight race. About this time, Trump held his infamous dinner with Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi at which he seemed to cut a Dem-friendly deal to give amnesty to the Dreamers in exchange for a grab-bag of feel-good border security measures that did not include his promised Wall. Candidate Moore denounced the deal. Strange wouldnt commit. Moore soon opened up a lead that doesnt seem to have been cut even by Trumps appearance in Huntsville on Stranges behalf. Im not saying there werent other big factors in the race, like anger at the GOPs failure to repeal Obamacare. Im saying the seemingly impending Trump-endorsed Dreamer cave-in was another big factor. The difference between the two factors is that the mainstream press, which instinctively avoids crediting restrictionist concerns, will tell you about the former but not the latter.
And the Alabama revolt will make a difference in the eventual legislative outcome. Remember when House Majority Leader Eric Cantors defeat by an anti-amnesty outsider in 2014 sealed the doom of the massive, heavily hyped Gang of 8 amnesty? The bill had already passed the Senate, but when Cantor went down House Republicans who valued their job security didnt want to go anywhere near it.
Luther Strange is Cantor II. Which House Republicans want to try out for the role of Cantor III by backing the Pelosi/Trump amnesty? Not many, I suspect. The pundits may tell them the Alabama race was all about vague anti-Establishment anger, or the failure to repeal Obamacare, or about local dynamics. Elected Republican legislators, with their careers on the line, know better.