Last week, St. Petersburg governor Alexander Beglov announced the cancellation of New Year’s festivities in the city. The budgeted funds will go toward helping the families of those serving in the war. Other cities have followed the lead and announced cancellation of their events as well. Moscow has yet to decide if they will do the same thing, but it is something they are considering.
This is not a small thing, even though it is a symbolic one. Christmas and New Year’s are big events in Russia. The New Year’s celebration is as much a celebration of Russia as it is the celebration of the new year. At midnight, the Kremlin Spasskaya Clock Tower chimes and the Russian national anthem begins. People then go out to attend parties and public festivities. It is the biggest party of the year.
Canceling these events now is both a political statement and an acknowledgement of a new attitude in Russia regarding the war. A message is being sent to the public and to the leadership that attitudes are changing. The war is no longer a special military operation run by the army. The war is now a national concern and everyone is expected to contribute to the cause. The politicians need to treat it as such. “The Russians are now beginning to view the conflict as a war for survival.”
Contrary to the howling from Western media, the war is popular in Russia and Putin remains extremely popular with the Russian people. The public has accepted that the war was necessary to defend Russia from the West. Most Russians remember the postcommunist years and they still remember the rapacious vultures who came in to exploit Russia after the collapse of communism.
Attitudes, however, are beginning to change as the war drags on much longer than most people expected when it started. Contrary to the howler monkeys in the Western media, this does not mean support for the war is dropping. It means that support for the kinder, gentler approach is dropping. People and politicians are beginning to think it is time to take the gloves off and apply maximum force in Ukraine.
It is clear that Putin and his faction miscalculated on a number of fronts before the start of the war. Their first mistake was in thinking Europe would push for a negotiated settlement by forcing Ukraine back to the Minsk accords. No one would want tank war in Europe, so finding a settlement would be in everyone’s interests. Therefore, the threat of war would be enough to get settlement talks going.
In fairness to the Russians, this was not illogical. The Zelensky government was willing to deal and came close to signing off on an agreement in April, but Boris Johnson was sent in by Washington to scuttle the negotiations. It was clear the Russians were surprised by this, as they kept working with the Turks to restart talks until it became obvious that Washington would not permit Zelensky to make any deal with Moscow.
It is also clear that the Russians did not plan for a long war. Maybe they underestimated the Ukrainian army. Maybe they overestimated their own prowess. Maybe they had a bad plan from the start. It is clear that they did not commit the necessary resources to fight this war as it is being fought. It is also clear that they struggled throughout the summer to adjust to a war they did not expect to be fighting.
The biggest mistake the Russians have made in this conflict is in underestimating the seething hatred of Russia and Russians by the people running foreign policy in the Global American Empire. For the rulers in Washington and Brussels, this is now their reason to exist. Who they are is defined by their loathing of Russia. As John Bolton recently confessed, this can only end for them with regime change in Moscow. Read More
Despite claims to the contrary, Putin is not a dictator and he is not consumed with a hatred for Western democracy. To the contrary, he has always been viewed in Russia as pro-Western and as a dove with regards to Washington. Although his views have evolved over the years, Putin is still in the dovish camp and largely viewed as a guy who thinks Russia can do business with the West.
Russian cities announcing the cancellation of New Year’s festivities is either a signal that attitudes are shifting against Putin’s slow approach to the war in Ukraine or a sign that Putin himself is moving in the direction of the hardliners. Given Putin’s connections to St. Petersburg, it is most likely the latter. The Russians are now planning a winter war and preparing the public for a much harsher prosecution of that war.
Of course, what this means is Moscow has accepted the statements of the collective West with regards to ending the conflict. Formally, the West says the war can only end with a total Russian defeat. Informally they say it ends with the breakup of the Russian Federation, preceded by regime change in Moscow. In other words, the Russians are now beginning to view the conflict as a war for survival.
All wars are a tragedy of errors, and this one is no exception. What should have been settled at the negotiating table years ago is now moving the world toward the worst winter in generations. An increasingly mobilized Russia is now committed to ending the war in Ukraine, regardless of the cost to Ukraine. An increasingly fanatical West is committed to destroying Russia, regardless of the cost to the West.
Given the people running the collective West, there is little hope that cooler heads will step forward and put an end to this madness. Given the dynamics of Russian politics, it is increasingly unlikely that such overtures will be welcomed. When Joe Biden ran for president, he promised Americans a long dark winter. It looks as if this will be one of the promises he keeps. The world is now facing a very long and very dark winter.