By CLAUDE SALHANI
UPI International Editor
WASHINGTON, July 9 (UPI) -- Well-informed sources in Washington fear a confrontation between Syria and Israel may happen this summer. The sources say that Syrian intelligence is abuzz with activity reports of an imminent Israeli attack across the Golan Heights, while others believe it is Syria that is gearing up for war. Dennis Ross, a former senior U.S. Middle East peace negotiator, was quoted by an Israeli newspaper as saying he thinks "there is a risk of war" between Syria and Israel in the summer. Ross told YnetNews, Yedioth Ahronoth's Internet edition, that "no one has made any decisions, but the Syrians are positioning themselves for war."
According to the former U.S. State Department official, "Syria has rearmed Hezbollah to the teeth -- there should be a price to pay for that." Ross added that the Bush administration should aim to "squeeze the Syrian economy" by using "sticks before carrots" in dealing with Damascus.
The New York Sun, meanwhile, quotes an unidentified Baath official saying, "If Israel doesn't vacate the strategic Golan Heights before September, Syrian guerillas will immediately launch 'resistance operations' against the Golan's Jewish communities." The official said "Damascus is preparing for Israeli retaliation following Syrian guerilla attacks and for a larger war with the Jewish state in August or September."
The official warns that "Syria has the capability to fire 'hundreds' of missiles at Tel Aviv in the opening salvo of any conflict." The official told the New York paper that Damascus has made numerous requests to Washington for the return of the Golan "either through negotiations or through war."
Some analysts believe Syria took notice of last summer's war between Israel and Hezbollah, prompting the leadership in Damascus to rethink its strategy.
Meanwhile a decision by Syrian authorities to recall its citizens from Lebanon before July 15 has not helped lessen the tension, nor the rumors, lending to speculation that there might be more than just rumors behind the latest tension in the Middle East.
Beirut's Daily Star newspaper reports that Damascus has ordered its citizens in Lebanon to return home by July 15, citing concerns over the "security situation in Lebanon." And a report in the government controlled Syrian daily al-Thawra said Syrian students studying in the public Lebanese University and the Beirut Arab University were authorized to enroll in public Syrian universities for the upcoming academic year 2007-2008.
MEMRI -- the Middle East Media Research Institute -- reports that on July 5, the Lebanese daily al-Liwa cited rumors that Syrian workers were leaving Lebanon at the request of the Syrian authorities. Arab and Iranian media reports have backed up the probability that Lebanon's current political impasse may turn violent after July 15. Indeed, a number of sensitive events affecting Lebanon and/or Syria coincide with the fatidic July 15 date.
The U.N. Security Council is scheduled to discuss the implementation of Security Council Resolution 1701 on July 16. The discussions will center on the Syria-Lebanon border and the possibility of positioning international observers along the border to prevent weapons finding their way from Syria into Lebanon.
The London-based al-Hayat newspaper says the United Nations' recommendations will demand the stationing of international experts in the border area to assist Lebanon's security agencies in monitoring the frontier.
Also between July 15 and 17 the head of the International Investigation Commission into the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, Serge Brammertz, is to submit his report to the U.N. Security Council.
The Iranian news agency speculates that the recall of Syrian nationals is due to the ultimatum Lebanese President Emil Lahoud gave the opposition to decide on how to deal with the crisis in Lebanon. Other sources think Syrians are being recalled home as Damascus plans to mobilize reserve units in expectation of an Israeli attack.
A contributing factor is a declaration by the Lebanese opposition of plans to establish a second government if no solution to the current political deadlock is reached by mid-July. Members of Hezbollah have joined President Lahoud in threatening to establish a second government in Lebanon. They speak of taking "historical" and "strategic" steps. Such a move would likely re-ignite Lebanon's civil war, or possibly cause the country to fracture.
A second government would have grave implications for UNIFIL, the U.N. Interim Force in Lebanon, based in the south of the country. UNIFIL "would find itself facing a new reality when it discovered that (Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad) Siniora's government was no longer able to support its activities or ensure its security," MEMRI reported.
A series of editorials in the Lebanese daily al-Mustaqbal, meanwhile, warns of a planned Syrian-Iranian coup in Lebanon, spearheaded by Hezbollah and backed by Iran and Syria. The paper, which is close to the pro-government March 14 Movement, speaks of Hezbollah's military preparations, including military activity both south and north of the Litani River, in defiance of U.N. Resolution 1701; and the transformation of the Bekaa region into a military zone.
With tension in the Middle East at an all-time crux, it would not require very much to set the region ablaze. If the Bush administration ever intended to push for peace in the region, now would be the time to do so.
Ignoring the situation and allowing it to deteriorate may result in a new front becoming active with the forces of UNIFIL finding themselves engulfed in a conflict stretching from Iraq to South Lebanon. The Spanish contingent, which has already suffered half a dozen casualties in South Lebanon, was the first to pay the price of this new war.
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(E-mail: Claude@upi.com)
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