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Title: Ten Reasons Ron Paul Can't Win
Source:
Lew Rockwell
URL Source: http://www.lewrockwell.com/eddlem/eddlem18.html
Published: Aug 21, 2007
Author: Tom Eddlem
Post Date: 2007-08-21 06:21:12 by Ada
Keywords: None
Views: 3021
Comments: 115
It always perturbed me that the wide variety of neocon commentators on television regularly pronounce with such fury and unison that Ron Paul "can’t win" but never give any reasons why he couldn’t win the presidential race. At first, I assumed that these guys would be denying he had a chance up until and including Ron Paul’s inauguration day. And why shouldn’t I assume that? The pundits probably don’t give any reasons he can’t win, I thought, because there aren’t any. Then I thought more deeply, and found that there are plenty of reasons why Ron Paul can’t be elected. Here are the ten top reasons why Ron Paul can’t win, in the format of David Letterman’s Top Ten List. My logic is flawless. As Bill O’Reilly would say, "you can’t even argue it." 10. Ron Paul is too popular among people who know where he stands. Instant polling numbers among focus groups watching the debates have his popularity at about 75 percent. But Americans don’t vote for people who are that popular. It’s true that George W. Bush got a little more than 50 percent of the vote in 2004 – just barely – but that was a fluke. Bush’s popularity numbers have since sunk back to the traditional 25–35 percent range. Before 2004, not one of the winners in the last three Presidential campaigns even got 50 percent of the vote. Dubya didn’t even win a plurality of the popular vote in 2000. So it’s a clear modern precedent that in order to become President, you need to be unpopular rather than widely popular. Ron Paul simply can’t win if he remains that popular, and there’s no reason to believe people will begin to hate him. 9. He’s got too much money, and nowhere to spend it. It’s great that Ron Paul’s official campaign is raising nearly as much money as the frontrunners. But it won’t do him any good. What would he spend it on? He doesn’t need to spend it on local campaigning, because he’s already got more than 700 Meetups across the country. (More on that in reason #8). Many of these Meetups are printing bumper stickers, fliers, and yard signs without money from the campaign. They are creating phone banks on their own. A few are even making their own media advertising buys. Therefore, the campaign doesn’t need money for any of these things. So the massive Ron Paul campaign fundraising, while impressive, is superfluous at best. Money simply won’t help. 8. Ron Paul is cheating by harnessing the fervor of an army of volunteers, rather than the method pursued by the other candidates – who must pay a huge campaign staff to get their message out. It’s not fair that Ron Paul has excited volunteers who will spend their own money to get him elected, while the other candidates have to pay lots of people salaries to work for their campaigns. So don’t think that the other candidates won’t cry "foul" when they notice that most of Ron Paul’s campaign contributions are "off the books" in these Meetups. Collectively, the Meetups may be spending more money than the frontrunner campaigns. I noticed this myself recently when I attended a Ron Paul Meetup in Pawtucket, Rhode Island. I got handed a wad of Ron Paul bumper stickers from a guy who printed them up himself. Others passed me self-printed fliers and lapel stickers while the whole group passed the hat to print road signs on their own. Do you really think these expenditures were sent in to the Federal Election Commission as a campaign contribution? I doubt it. "We need a campaign ‘fairness doctrine’ to level the playing field," the other candidates will argue, quite possibly to great effect. 7. Ron Paul tells the truth. Ron Paul has a 20-year career in Congress of always voting the way he’s promised, even sometimes on positions that could hurt him politically (See reason #5 for more on this). He’s honest even when it hurts him, and that’s great. But let’s face it, Americans long ago tired of electing honest presidents. They very much prefer presidents who will lie to us "for your own good." This explains why they elected George "Read my lips, no new taxes" Bush, Bill "I did not have sexual relations with that woman" Clinton, and most recently, George "Law enforcement officers need a federal judge's permission to wiretap a foreign terrorist's phone" Bush. Need I elaborate more? The American people long ago tired of honesty! Honesty just doesn’t sell. 6. He’s for lower spending AND lower taxes. Most Americans want lower taxes, so Ron Paul’s halfway there, but they don’t want to cut spending. Americans want a candidate who talks about lower spending but actually increases spending. This explains the Bill "the era of big government is over" Clinton and George "compassionate conservative" Bush presidencies. Of course, Americans also want balanced budgets … and Ron Paul’s philosophy would give them both lower taxes and a balanced budget. But I still think the American people would settle for another candidate who promises to enact a balanced budget precisely four years after the end of his last term – four years after any influence he has over spending ends. 5. Ron Paul is a man of principle. Ron Paul is known for voting against pork even for his own congressional district. He voted against the Iraq war even when the American people were backing it in polling by three-to-one margins. He’s the "1" in more 434-1 votes than all of the rest of the members of the U.S. House of Representatives put together. He doesn’t take congressional pay raises or participate in the generous congressional pension system. While that might lead some people to think it would attract voters to his candidacy, it actually hurts him. Despite the fact that his campaign rallies regularly draw more supporters than any other candidate, these huge crowds have made him a very, very lonely man. Crowds are isolating psychological phenomena. Getting the biggest crowds at rallies only exaggerates the loneliness that people always have in crowds. Psychologically speaking, he can’t take any more of the loneliness of those crowds. No one could. That’s why the other candidates have limited themselves to smaller crowds of mostly salaried campaign officials and government employees. 4. Ron Paul has peaked. He wins first or second place in all of the online polls, so his expectations have been raised too high for him to win a primary. Ron Paul has already lost the expectations game, unless he can somehow pull out 274.8 percent or more of the total vote in the Iowa primary. I’m no mathematical expert, but my accountant tells me it’s mathematically impossible for Ron Paul to pull in that kind of a vote. 3. He’s been against the Iraq war from the start. You might think that taking a position against the Iraq war from the start would help a candidate in a campaign where the American people oppose the war by a two-to-one margin or more. But the truth is, the American people don’t want a know-it-all candidate who has demonstrated foresight. They want a dumb bumbler that they can make fun of; it’s the same social phenomena that caused people to watch the old Jerry Springer show. They want a president who can’t pronounce "nuclear," preferably one who physically resembles a simian. Also, and perhaps more importantly, the troops are about to pull out a dramatic victory from Iraq. Not with the current surge, but with the post-surge surge. The fact that Ron Paul is raking in more campaign contributions from veterans than any other candidate should not be taken as a sign that the troops want out of there. The troops aren’t voting with their wallets, they’re just getting tanned, rested and ready for the final surge. The campaign contributions are a diversional maneuver designed to draw out al Qaeda fighters, and those weapons of mass destruction Sean Hannity says were secretly stored in Syria. The post-surge surge will also expose the mystery behind Area 51, end world hunger and cure male-pattern baldness. This issue will be a loser for any anti-war candidate in short order. Just wait and see. 2. Ron Paul’s a medical doctor, OB/GYN, and a graduate of Duke Medical School, but not a government health care management professional. Therefore, no American could possibly take him seriously when he gives his opinion on medicine. It’s a good thing that Dr. Paul has not been given an opportunity to comment on any question about health care in any of the Presidential debates, because the other candidates’ expertise on medicine would blow him away. It’s only a matter of time before they embarrass him. Other candidates like Mitt Romney have experience as part of a "management team" capable of delivering a "wide range of services." Ron Paul has only ensured proper health care for a few thousand individual people. The other candidates know that government policy can deliver much better health care for less cost than country doctors. Take, for example, Boston’s "Big Dig." The Big Dig, the depression of Boston’s central artery, is the largest public works project in history at $15 billion and counting. This could never have been accomplished by the private sector, and the Big Dig construction is almost finished after 10 years and going only 800 percent over budget. It’s true the Big Dig has already killed a motorist who was crushed by the falling three-ton concrete blocks used as ceiling tiles. (How could anyone possibly have foreseen such an outcome from an innovative design of precariously fastening concrete ceiling tiles?) But the truth is that we need government to bring the same cost controls and safety controls of the Big Dig to health care. Ron Paul just doesn’t understand this vital macroeconomic point. 1. George Stephanopoulos says Ron Paul can’t win. George Stephanopoulos may only stand nine inches tall without television camera tricks, but that’s because he’s the only documented Greek Leprechaun in modern history. He therefore wields powerful clairvoyance powers that can shape the future. That explains Bill Clinton’s election and reelection over the seemingly unstoppable Bob Dole. If you don’t have George Stephanopoulos on your side, your cause is hopeless. Fortunately for Boston Red Sox fans, Stephanopoulos withdrew his longstanding "The Red Sox can never win the World Series" edict in October 2004. Let’s face it, the evidence against a Ron Paul victory is overwhelming. Dr. Paul will never be the "front-Ron-ner." At least, not until he takes his oath of office at his inauguration.
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#75. To: palo verde (#70)
He won't win a single primary.
guys, our main obstacle is the vote fraud. it doesn't matter who votes for whom. what matters is the PTB who have control of the machines. i wish Ron Paul would scream this from the mountain top. americans need to be made aware of this first and foremost.
The basis for my statements are the polls which show Ron Paul not getting much support from the GOP rank and file.
Those polls also don't show much support for Ron Paul outside the GOP. So why are you so anxious that he should run third-party? (Myself, I suspect it's because you realize that Ron Paul's best chance of winning is precisely by getting the Republican nomination. And, of course, even if Paul does not get that nomination, he has an excellent chance of having a substantial effect on the debate and the issues just by running.)
To reason, indeed, he was not in the habit of attending. His mode of arguing, if it is to be so called, was one not uncommon among dull and stubborn persons, who are accustomed to be surrounded by their inferiors. He asserted a proposition; and, as often as wiser people ventured respectfully to show that it was erroneous, he asserted it again, in exactly the same words, and conceived that, by doing so, he at once disposed of all objections. - Macaulay, "History of England," Vol. 1, Chapter 6, on James II.
That to me is your own opinion and biased hope, you offer no qualifiers, nothing. After I question it, you fall back to unnamed polls etc. Sink, why not be honest for a change, you surely are in the closet for someone, why not name them, the rest of us are supporting Paul. Be up front for a change.
I'm not anxious at all, I'm simply suggesting that the only way Ron Paul will have an effect on things is if he runs 3rd party. It's pretty obvious to me that there is a huge reservoir of discontent out there waiting to be tapped. The GOP is made up of people who listen to Limbaugh and Hannity. They're not going to vote for Ron Paul.
Go ahead and name the poll that shows Ron Paul up there with Rudy, Mitt and Fred. Go on, I'm waiting to see it.
So why don't the polls show much support for Paul, either inside or outside the Republican Party? If there's such a reservoir of discontent, don't you think some of it is in registered Republicans?
To reason, indeed, he was not in the habit of attending. His mode of arguing, if it is to be so called, was one not uncommon among dull and stubborn persons, who are accustomed to be surrounded by their inferiors. He asserted a proposition; and, as often as wiser people ventured respectfully to show that it was erroneous, he asserted it again, in exactly the same words, and conceived that, by doing so, he at once disposed of all objections. - Macaulay, "History of England," Vol. 1, Chapter 6, on James II.
We have untold republicans such as Mister Clean that are doing their best to undermine Paul before we ever get to the polls for a vote. It is a telling fact that there is trouble when candidates send out lackeys to destroy fellow party candidates rather than use their energy on their opponents, the democrats. Just suppose Paul were to be on the ballot??? That is the last thing the pub hierarchy wants. They would rather see Hillary as president.
that is the same excuse the mass media gives for refusing to give coverage to Ron Paul the reason mass media doesn't cover Ron Paul is because they don't want him to win but each has their own reason for being on net
Sink, you cited polls as supporting your personal opinion. Lets keep things straight. No one mentioned Paul and polls.
you are absolutely right
I am not going to worry myself about vote fraud In election 2000 the election was fixed by 10 points for Gore I do not ask anyone else to share my faith in God however I will continue to campaign for Ron Paul in full faith I know no one sees election 2000 the way I do
Ron Paul Makes Sense
Makes sense to me.
Most of it lies outside the 2 party system.
No, I cite the fact that Ron Paul is not registering high in the polls. That's a fact you can't dispute.
It's not an excuse it's reality.
Your unwavering support of bush and his policies and your constant spamming of the threads with your inanities are a source of irritation. Please don't post to me, ever.
"First they ignore you. Then they ridicule you. Then they fight you. Then you win." --Mahatma Gandhi
LOL I won't
Angle is perfectly within his rights to hate me and hate my posts I honestly thought I would come over to 4um and post in peace about Ron Paul I understand the anathema towards me based on my posting history So putting all these things together
United, we stand; divided, we fall. I doubt you will find another forum that is as receptive to Paul's candidacy as this one. MOST here will miss your dedication to Dr. Paul and your optimism for his campaign.
Now sweetness, you, angle and I posted at LF and even though we moved in different circles so to speak, we all came here for a reason. I don't want to see you leave. Your sweetness and love which you share so readily and graciously are very refreshing in this day and age, especially when there are so many folks who are angry and don't expend much energy spreading euphemistic "sweet sauce" over their thoughts. If my feelings matter then I want you to know that I'll be sad if you allow hurt feelings to take you away from me. Please sleep and pray on it, and I'm quite sure you'll see that you have a duty to yourself and to folks who appreciate you, and that angle's post to you doesn't warrant such drastic and painful action. Okay? Will you sleep on it for mee? I hope so. Love, Jim
My people have a saying. Those who break the ice will eventually find cold lake water.
Better read #95...for crying out loud.
I hope you stay palo. There is a wide variety of opinions and posters on this 4um. Sometimes it gets rough. I voted for Bush in 2000, and it wasn't until Abu Ghraib I began to question anything. Everyone has their own history and it isn't right or reasonable for any of us to demand the same experience, timeline and opinions.
Ron Paul for President - Join a Ron Paul Meetup group today!
anne, what HOUNDDAWG and who knows what evil said!
Well said - thanks.
"It does not take a majority to prevail, but rather an irate, tireless minority, keen on setting brush fires of freedom in the minds of men." -- Samuel Adams (1722-1803)‡
Hey, I ain't that old. See you around, palo.
Well Palo...Here you were and now you're gone before I had a chance to say hello.
hi mel, welcome to 4um! i'm going to email your greeting to palo. maybe that will entice her to return. ;)
Thank you for the welcome and thank you for passing on the message. I just found out she was here today or I would've stopped by sooner.
Hey mel, good to see you here. Welcome!
How's it going farmfriend? I didn't know you were here. Good to see you too. I guess I should take a look around and see who else I can find.
It's going. Lots of changes in my life right now. Got my own forum running again, changing jobs and my oldest son is moving out.
I started posting over here as I post on many different forums but I guess that was a no no in Goldi's mind. She banned me after I started posting here. Claims I announced on the forum that I was leaving for here but I made no such announcement. Oh well. Nicer over here anyway.
She 86'd Gatlin the other day. He's been in defense mode for a while and attack mode as well. At least my ping list is shorter now, by 100 posts or more each day.
guess you don't have a way to contact Gatlin and invite him here?
Actually, I do. I'll send him an invitation right now. ;) I do miss reading his stuff. Don't tell him I said that. lol
Come back, Palo.
Ron Paul wins the straw polls he wins the internet polls
#76. To: Cynicom, palo verde, robin, Mister Clean, ALL (#68)
#77. To: Cynicom (#74)
You were espousing your own hopes, citing no basis.
#78. To: Mister Clean (#71)
There isn't much support for Ron Paul within the GOP because if there was he'd be higher in the polls.
#79. To: Mister Clean (#77)
You are one of the few.
#80. To: aristeides (#78)
So why are you so anxious that he should run third-party?
#81. To: Cynicom (#79)
After I question it, you fall back to unnamed polls etc.
#82. To: Mister Clean (#80)
It's pretty obvious to me that there is a huge reservoir of discontent out there waiting to be tapped.
#83. To: christine (#76)
guys, our main obstacle is the vote fraud.
#84. To: Mister Clean (#71)
... he'd be higher in the polls
I don't buy it from them and I don't buy it from you
as for your reason, I have no idea, because you claim absolute indifference to this election
so I guess your reason is to "justify" obnoxious posting
and if this gives you pleasure
fine with me
Love, Palo
#85. To: Mister Clean (#81)
Go ahead and name the poll that shows Ron Paul up there with Rudy, Mitt and Fred.
#86. To: aristeides (#78)
Ron Paul's best chance of winning [the presidency] is precisely by getting the Republican nomination.
#87. To: All (#86)
I am trusting that if the votes are there for Ron Paul he will win
half the votes for Gore were from non existent voters
plus a million votes for Bush were "lost"
I honestly don't believe Bush would have been in the White House instead of Gore
if God had not made sure the candidate the people chose was the one in the White House
that if the votes are there for him
he will be our President
Love, Palo
which is fine
each to their own perception
but it explains why I have such faith in God He will insure honest outcome
#88. To: Cynicom (#85)
hey...handing out those RP flyers work.
“Yes, but is this good for Jews?"
#89. To: Eoghan. RP friends (#88)
That is why we can get this thing done.
#90. To: aristeides (#82)
If there's such a reservoir of discontent, don't you think some of it is in registered Republicans?
#91. To: Cynicom (#85)
you cited polls as supporting your personal opinion.
#92. To: palo verde (#84)
that is the same excuse the mass media gives for refusing to give coverage to Ron Paul I don't buy it from them and I don't buy it from you
#93. To: palo verde (#17)
#94. To: angle (#93)
Your unwavering support of bush and his policies
and your constant spamming of the threads with your inanities
are a source of irritation.
Please don't post to me, ever.
but to be on the safe side why don't you bozo me
then no post by me will ever show up for you to read
#95. To: All (#94)
(angle) Your unwavering support of bush and his policies and your constant spamming of the threads with your inanities are a source of irritation. Please don't post to me, ever
but I have not posted about Bush once since I have been on this forum
(unless you count the post on this thread where I said there was massive fraud by Dems in election 2000
I mistakenly wrote 1/2 the votes for Gore were from non-existent voters, this is wrong
I think 1/3 of the votes for Gore were from non-existent voters
(I left my previous forum because the owner expressed un-welcome to articles about Ron Paul
and electing Ron Paul our President is my primary purpose for being on a political forum now
and even tho I see the Bush presidency as a complete catastrophe
I do not share the feeling he is the devil incarnate
Please allow me to thank all of you who have been so nice to me, so kind, and so friendly
You gave me such a warm welcome, and made me feel so at home
and I admit I shed a little tear of sadness at saying goodbye
but I think it is best I look for another forum where I can campaign for Ron Paul
and where it is a clean slate, they don't know me, I don't know them
(I am used to being on forums with familiar faces now, so it may take me a while to break the ice)
I will miss the posters I am friends with here
both old friends and new friends
but things always work out for the best
God bless you all
Thank you for your graciousness to me
I had a lovely time here
Love, Palo
#96. To: palo verde (#95)
Remember...G-d saved more animals than people on the ark. www.siameserescue.org
#97. To: palo verde, angle (#95)
#98. To: palo verde (#95)
I am used to being on forums with familiar faces now, so it may take me a while to break the ice
#99. To: robin, christine (#95)
Remember...G-d saved more animals than people on the ark. www.siameserescue.org
#100. To: palo verde (#95)
#101. To: palo verde, ghostdogtxn, lodwick, HOUNDDAWG, who knows what evil (#95)
#102. To: who knows what evil, palo verde, RP friends (#96)
United, we stand; divided, we fall. I doubt you will find another forum that is as receptive to Paul's candidacy as this one. MOST here will miss your dedication to Dr. Paul and your optimism for his campaign.
#103. To: palo verde (#95)
#104. To: palo verde (#95)
I will miss the posters I am friends with here
both old friends and new friends
#105. To: palo verde (#95)
#106. To: mel_living (#105)
#107. To: christine (#106)
#108. To: mel_living (#107)
"every time government grows it is at the expense of personal liberty" - Ron Paul
#109. To: farmfriend (#108)
#110. To: mel_living (#109)
How's it going farmfriend?
"every time government grows it is at the expense of personal liberty" - Ron Paul
#111. To: mel_living (#109)
I didn't know you were here.
"every time government grows it is at the expense of personal liberty" - Ron Paul
#112. To: farmfriend (#111)
#113. To: mel_living (#112)
#114. To: christine (#113)
(Edited)
#115. To: palo verde (#95)
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