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Title: (NY State) May to go out under a freeze watch
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URL Source: http://www.uticaod.com/archive/x117 ... to-go-out-under-a-freeze-watch
Published: May 31, 2009
Author: Observer-Dispatch
Post Date: 2009-05-31 14:11:08 by Jethro Tull
Keywords: None
Views: 479
Comments: 37
The National Weather Service has issued a freeze watch for many parts of New York from Sunday through Monday morning, including Oneida County. Widespread frost and freeze conditions are possible tonight and into early Monday morning. The region’s low temperature for today is expected to be about 36 degrees, which also is the record low temperature for May 31, according to WKTV meteorologists and weather archives. The record was set in 1966. A low of 50 degrees is expected for Monday. The record low for June 1 is 31 degrees, which was set in 1945, according to weather archives.
Poster Comment: The science of global warming is over. It's freezing.
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#4. To: Jethro Tull, *Agriculture-Environment* (#0)
Quote from a friend on climate forum: http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/29may_noaaprediction.htm?list122379 Now they are predicting that Solar Cycle 24 will be weak and peak in May 2013. I don't understand how they think that they can make such predictions right now. The last time solar activity was similar was prior to around 1910. They really don't have much empirical data to base predictions on. I suspect that they are just guessing. A normal cycle is approximately 11 years long. That suggests that from the minimum to the maximum would be 5.5 years. A prediction that we will go from end of an unusually long cycle 23, to the peak of cycle 24 (which hasn't really started yet) in 4 years doesn't seem reasonable but we will see. A Cycle 24 peak around 2016 or beyond would seem more reasonable to me. That would suggest a Cycle 25 peak around 2027. If that cycle is as weak as predicted, then the end of this solar minimum could not occur until we are well into Cycle 26 with a peak as late as 2038. But the Dalton Minimum was three weak cycles in a row. If climate follows that pattern, the current minimum might not end until we (well you younger guys at least) are well into the 2040's. When NASA's David Hathaway reported [05/10/2006] that the sun's conveyor belt had slowed to record levels, that suggested that the game had changed. Hathaway predicted that Cycle 24 would be strong and Cycle 25 would be very weak. I remember wondering at the time how cycle 24 could be so strong with the solar conveyor so slow. http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/10may_longrange.htm He said "We've never seen speeds so low." He also said "The slowdown we see now means that Solar Cycle 25, peaking around the year 2022, could be one of the weakest in centuries." Let's hope that he is wrong about that as well. A team led by Mausumi Dikpata (National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) predicted in March of 2006: http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/10mar_stormwarning.htm "The next sunspot cycle [24] will be 30% to 50% stronger than the previous one," she says. If correct, the years ahead could produce a burst of solar activity second only to the historic Solar Max of 1958." Obviously that prediction was probably about as wrong as it could be. An extended solar minimum suggests a long term cooling trend. That ought to be big news. Why isn't it?
Technically, it has. I believe it was over a week ago there was a sunspot in the northern hemisphere. They come in pairs with opposite polarities. The polarity of this sunspot pair was reversed relative to the previous spot that had been sighted, thus marking the beginning of the new cycle. Sun is still pretty quiet today, as you can see. If this quiet period goes on much longer, we'll soon be about two standard deviations out from the mean as far as cycle length goes. Looks kinda spooky, don't it?
The first cycle 24 spot was early last year but cycle 23 spots still dominate when there are spots. The official start of cycle 24 won't be until there are more 24 spots than 23. Here are three really good web sites. The first is by a Finnish climatologist who focuses on the sun. One possible explanation for the cyclicity in the Sun.
#34. To: farmfriend (#25)
Thanks for the information. I'm still getting a handle on these things, and don't really have the mechanics of all this down yet. Sorry for the misinformation, I misinterpreted some things I found on the net. The sun is really a big, wierd, fascinating and awsome thing. Kudos to your posts.
Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/LatestWidespread frost and freeze conditions are possible tonight and into early Monday morning.
If the international panel of experts led by NOAA and sponsored by NASA keeps making predictions, sooner or later nature will have to cooperate and they get to claim that their prediction was correct.
#10. To: farmfriend (#4)
A prediction that we will go from end of an unusually long cycle 23, to the peak of cycle 24 (which hasn't really started yet) in 4 years doesn't seem reasonable but we will see.
#25. To: randge, Jethro Tull (#10)
Technically, it has. I believe it was over a week ago there was a sunspot in the northern hemisphere. They come in pairs with opposite polarities. The polarity of this sunspot pair was reversed relative to the previous spot that had been sighted, thus marking the beginning of the new cycle.
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