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(s)Elections See other (s)Elections Articles Title: Hezbollah keeps its eye on the ball DAMASCUS - Many years ago, French president Charles de Gaulle said, "France has no friends; only interests." These words came to mind as Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah recently met with anti-Syrian Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, a man who has loudly been critical of Hezbollah, for the first time in three years. Meeting with Jumblatt, head of the Socialist Cooperative Party, raised eyebrows in Lebanon on whether the leader of Hezbollah had changed after the June 7 elections. Many had expected the Hezbollah-led opposition to sweep parliament. Gulf states were holding their breath, preparing to cut off all aid to Lebanon in the event that happened, believing that then, the small Mediterranean country would become a launching pad for Iranian activities in the Middle East. United States President Barack Obama had sent an indirect message to the Lebanese during his June 4 speech in Cairo, saying that he would respect the outcome of any democratic elections, even if they brought parties to power that were at odds with the US. France bluntly said that it would deal with any government, even if it was packed with members of Hezbollah. The results of the elections proved otherwise, however, with Hezbollah and its allies maintaining the status quo by winning 57 seats, while the majority went to the pro-Western March 14 coalition. Nicholas Blanford, the well-informed Beirut-based journalist, wrote: "The March 14 victory is a setback for Hezbollah which had hoped that an opposition win would provide a protective seal around its military wing. Contrary to scare-mongering rhetoric from some Israeli and Western officials, Hezbollah had no desire or interest in assuming control of the state if the opposition had triumphed." Shortly after the elections, Nasrallah spoke to his supporters, saying he accepted the election results "with sportsmanship". He then quickly added that the results meant maintaining the status quo, and not a defeat for Hezbollah since the party had won with tremendous ease all of its contested seats. By no means did this mean that Hezbollah's popularity had waned, or that the party was starting its long march into history. Nasrallah warned, as he has repeatedly done since 2006, that any talk about disarming Hezbollah was a red line that nobody could cross, regardless of the election results. Members of March 14 - who had tried to tackle Hezbollah militarily in May 2008, in vain - praised Nasrallah's calmness, which clearly triggered positive vibrations throughout Lebanon. A "gentleman's agreement" was seemingly reached in Lebanon, where Hezbollah would accept the new administration (which will probably see Saad Hariri as prime minister), while March 14 would incorporate Hezbollah - and its demands - into the new cabinet. Lebanese have seemingly grabbed at the perfect opportunity when everybody generally involved in the Lebanese issue has been focused on the unrest in Iran. Syria is preparing to turn a new leaf with the US, after Washington announced this week that it would be sending a new ambassador to Damascus to fill a post that has been vacant since 2005. The Lebanese took the chance to settle their problems from within and build on common ground between conflict parties, thus explaining the Jumblatt-Nasrallah summit. This proves that contrary to what many people thought, Nasrallah has not changed after June 7. In his own mind - and in numbers throughout its constituencies - Hezbollah did not lose the elections. The coalition, of which Hezbollah was a member - did not win. Nasrallah still gets to keep his arms, all 11 seats in parliament (and another 46 seats for his allies), in addition to the post of speaker, which on Wednesday went to his friend and colleague Nabih Berri. A staunch ally of Hezbollah, Berri has been head of the Lebanese parliament for nearly 20 years, and legally speaking, since his group does not enjoy a majority any longer, the post of speaker should go to a member of March 14. But again, in the spirit of reconciliation, all parties decided to "side-step" parliamentary norms and restored Berri to the post with 90 out of 128 votes. His deputy, Farid Makari, a member of March 14, was also voted into office once again. Berri's re-election pleased Nasrallah, as did a meeting shortly after the elections between a Hezbollah parliamentarian and Javier Solana, the European Union chief negotiator. If anything, this was proof that the EU still takes Hezbollah very seriously. Let us pretend that Israel were to withdraw from the occupied Sheba Farms in what remains of 2009. What would the position of Nasrallah be? Theoretically, the man would give up his arms - as the West has been calling for years - and transform into the head of an unarmed political party, just like many Lebanese leaders did after the civil war ended in 1990. Anybody who knows Nasrallah well realizes that this is much smaller than the grand ambitions of the 48-year-old leader. Some claim that he is bent on ruling Lebanon. Many who know him, and understand Lebanese dynamics, realize that Nasrallah, a smart and pragmatic man, would never try his luck at such a coup, because no matter what, a Shi'ite cannot rule Lebanon and Nasrallah would never think of upsetting the nation's delicate sectarian balance. He might try to rule by proxy, through a Christian heavyweight like Michel Aoun, but if this is the case, that dream vanished when Aoun lost his last chance to become president in 2008. The next time the Lebanese go to the polls, Aoun will be 78, certainly too old for presidential office, putting a damper on Hezbollah's ambitions. Others argue that Nasrallah is like a "lion in a canary's cage". Meaning, his ambitions and dreams are much larger than the limited borders of Lebanon and the Sheba Farms. Advocates of this theory claim that Nasrallah wants to become a modern Saladin, resembling the ancient Muslim sultan who liberated Jerusalem. If that were the case, the man would stop at nothing to achieve his goals. Instead, Nasrallah is prepared to talk to Jumblatt - and practically everyone else in Lebanon - to peacefully survive in the Lebanese system. Protecting his weapons then, while also upholding Shi'ite rights, rather than running the Lebanese state, is the real drive behind Nasrallah. Post Comment Private Reply Ignore Thread
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