4um: Deadly second wave of swine flu 'on its way', scientists warn

A second wave of swine flu could be on its way, scientists warned last night after the number of new cases rose for the first time since July.

The jump, from an estimated 3,000 to 5,000, comes a fortnight after children - key spreaders of the disease - returned to school.

There have been outbreaks at six schools in England, but health chiefs repeated that there are no plans to close schools as it would do little to contain the disease.

In another development, two sufferers are believed to have developed resistance to Tamiflu, the anti-viral drug which is the only line of defence to the disease before a vaccine is ready.

Disruption: A woman walks through London with a surgical mask in an attempt to protect her from swine flu (file picture). Scientists fear the deadly second wave of swine flu is on its way

Chief medical officer Sir Liam Donaldson however said the two cases were not of significance as there was no evidence these resistant viruses had been transmitted from person to person.

Experts have been predicting a second wave of swine flu will hit in the winter months following a lull over the summer break, when children were not mixing as freely. Sir Liam said the figures 'begin to suggest swine flu is coming back'. And he admitted: 'We would naturally have hoped for a bit more breathing space before it started again.'

There are 143 people in hospital in England, of whom 23 are in intensive care. The total of deaths linked to the virus stands at 67 in England and 79 across the UK.

Sir Liam has revised NHS forecasts, saying that between 3,000 and 19,000 will die from the virus - down from the 65,000 worst case scenario outlined in July.

The number of new cases have been falling since the peak of 110,000 a week reported in late July. Experts believe a second wave of the disease will be more deadly as it will coincide with winter, when flu is more virulent.

Sir Liam said more than 1.3million people had been assessed via the National Pandemic Flu Service for England, with 522,890 collections of anti-viral drugs.

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andy burnham and liam donaldson demonstrate how to sneeze

Health Secretary Andy Burnham, left, and Chief Medical Officer Sir Liam Donaldson demonstrate how to sneeze, while reducing the risk of infecting others, during a visit to a North London school

The schools affected by outbreaks are two in South Yorkshire, one in Carlisle, one in the North East and two in London.

Sir Liam said there were no plans to close schools as the virus was circulating in the community, meaning such efforts would have little value.

Tests on GlaxoSmithKline's flu vaccine has shown that a good immune response can be achieved with just one dose rather than two, he said.

However, Sir Liam said the under-13s and over-65s may need two doses, although research was ongoing.

The Health Protection Agency said two samples from UK patients have been shown to have the genetic change associated with Tamiflu resistance. Both were from patients with compromised immune systems.

One has been proved to be resistant; the other is undergoing further tests to confirm resistance.

A spokeswoman for the HPA said there was no question that the resistance could have been caused by overuse of Tamiflu, which has been prescribed to hundreds of thousands of people with suspected cases of the disease.

'We have seen this in other countries where there hasn't been mass prescription of Tamiflu,' she said. 'The cases are sporadic, and there is no evidence of onward transmission. This is to be expected and is not a cause for concern.'

Deadly second wave of swine flu 'on its way', scientists warn

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