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Title: Researcher: Basic Greenhouse Equations "Totally Wrong"
Source:
DailyTech
URL Source: http://www.dailytech.com/Researcher ... Totally+Wrong/article10973.htm
Published: Mar 6, 2008
Author: Michael Asher
Post Date: 2009-09-27 03:50:50 by sourcery
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Keywords: None
Views: 231
Comments: 19
New derivation of equations governing the greenhouse effect reveals "runaway warming" impossible Miklós Zágoni isn't just a physicist and environmental researcher. He is also a global warming activist and Hungary's most outspoken supporter of the Kyoto Protocol. Or was. That was until he learned the details of a new theory of the greenhouse effect, one that not only gave far more accurate climate predictions here on Earth, but Mars too. The theory was developed by another Hungarian scientist, Ferenc Miskolczi, an atmospheric physicist with 30 years of experience and a former researcher with NASA's Langley Research Center. After studying it, Zágoni stopped calling global warming a crisis, and has instead focused on presenting the new theory to other climatologists. The data fit extremely well. "I fell in love," he stated at the International Climate Change Conference this week. "Runaway greenhouse theories contradict energy balance equations," Miskolczi states. Just as the theory of relativity sets an upper limit on velocity, his theory sets an upper limit on the greenhouse effect, a limit which prevents it from warming the Earth more than a certain amount. How did modern researchers make such a mistake? They relied upon equations derived over 80 years ago, equations which left off one term from the final solution. Miskolczi's story reads like a book. Looking at a series of differential equations for the greenhouse effect, he noticed the solution -- originally done in 1922 by Arthur Milne, but still used by climate researchers today -- ignored boundary conditions by assuming an "infinitely thick" atmosphere. Similar assumptions are common when solving differential equations; they simplify the calculations and often result in a result that still very closely matches reality. But not always. So Miskolczi re-derived the solution, this time using the proper boundary conditions for an atmosphere that is not infinite. His result included a new term, which acts as a negative feedback to counter the positive forcing. At low levels, the new term means a small difference ... but as greenhouse gases rise, the negative feedback predominates, forcing values back down. NASA refused to release the results. Miskolczi believes their motivation is simple. "Money", he tells DailyTech. Research that contradicts the view of an impending crisis jeopardizes funding, not only for his own atmosphere-monitoring project, but all climate-change research. Currently, funding for climate research tops $5 billion per year. Miskolczi resigned in protest, stating in his resignation letter, "Unfortunately my working relationship with my NASA supervisors eroded to a level that I am not able to tolerate. My idea of the freedom of science cannot coexist with the recent NASA practice of handling new climate change related scientific results." His theory was eventually published in a peer-reviewed scientific journal in his home country of Hungary. The conclusions are supported by research published in the Journal of Geophysical Research last year from Steven Schwartz of Brookhaven National Labs, who gave statistical evidence that the Earth's response to carbon dioxide was grossly overstated. It also helps to explain why current global climate models continually predict more warming than actually measured. The equations also answer thorny problems raised by current theory, which doesn't explain why "runaway" greenhouse warming hasn't happened in the Earth's past. The new theory predicts that greenhouse gas increases should result in small, but very rapid temperature spikes, followed by much longer, slower periods of cooling -- exactly what the paleoclimatic record demonstrates. However, not everyone is convinced. Dr. Stephen Garner, with the NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), says such negative feedback effects are "not very plausible". Reto Ruedy of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies says greenhouse theory is "200 year old science" and doubts the possibility of dramatic changes to the basic theory. Miskowlczi has used his theory to model not only Earth, but the Martian atmosphere as well, showing what he claims is an extremely good fit with observational results. For now, the data for Venus is too limited for similar analysis, but Miskolczi hopes it will one day be possible.
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#1. To: sourcery (#0)
Stop the hysteria - death to cap and tax.
That's what I have been hearing from my climate friends. They had a huge discussion on a column of air I remember. It was over my head so I didn't pay much attention. Besides it was the closest thing that forum gets to a flame war. It would explain the flat line upper temps on that one graph of historic CO2 and Temps. My computer is currently down or I would dig it up. Hopefully my husband will get it fixed today.
I wonder how the (at least) six northern hemisphere HAARP facilities and the three HAARP like facilities on the equator figure into all of this?
good question. a few of my climate friends would fit in well here but many would not. a few are socialists. sigh.
He is right here in one respect - it IS about money, but he is missing a term in the equation - POWER. The Globull Warming Scam is not so much about NASA's money, although I'm sure the Technocrats who run NASA do watch that, but it is more about the Trillions to be derived from the taxation and upward redistribution of wealth which the Scammers are pushing for. It also, like the phony "WaronTerra", and "Flu Pandemic" it provides a fig leaf of pretext for greater and greater restrictions upon the behaviors and freedoms of us schmucks not in the elite Bankster class. What is really going on here is, I am sure, that the top Administrative Technocrats at NASA have been given their marching orders and have been told to produce a "Scientific" result (meaning fraudulent science) which supports the Globull Warming Theory at all costs or else. So, with their worthless necks on the line the maladministrators are pushing "science" which supports the covert agenda of greater regimentation and restrictions on individual liberty. Ultimately like most all of the agendas pushed by the Global Banking Elite, and their Pet Psychiatrists, it is about convincing people that they are in danger and thus must surrender their liberties or die. Survival is a powerful motivation and so those who have been convinced by the con job will of course fight tooth and nail to support the Global Elite's agenda which, were they in full possession of their senses and accurate data, they would normally oppose. In short like the so-called "WaronTerra" and the Global Warming Con is about money, power, and control. Not that we do not have real environmental problems, but this is not one of them. Much more of a problem are the growing dead zones in the oceans, industrial pollutants (from the Bankster's Factories), and the emission of noxious gases such as Hydrogen Sulfide, Sulfur Dioxide, and Mercury Vapor, from Coal Fired Power Plants. As well is the global food production problem which is again a result of politics aimed as supporting the financial interests of a few at the expense of the many. Genetically manipulated plants and animals which produce entirely new classes of poisons (while being touted as healthful by the whores of the media), unsustainable farming methods which require greater and greater inputs of petrochemicals (while destroying the soil), producing food with less and less nutritive value and conglomerating control of food production, again, in the hands of a few. If one studies the issues and looks honestly at the data over and over and over again it leads back to the same small cabal of hyperwealthy individuals, largely centered in the city of London Banking District, with names like Rothschild, Warburg, Hapsburg, and Rockefeller. One small group manipulating events, industries, and people for their own psychotic ends. They are quite mad and make a rogue Bull Elephant look tame in comparison of the damage done. Of course people have been trained and conditioned by the Psychiatrically devised "News" and "Infotainment" industry to immediately stop thinking and looking as soon as the magic control words are uttered "Conspiracy Theory". Never mind that the data is in plain view and the trail easily followed by anyone with the wit God gave even the most humble - you can't look, are not allowed to look, and are repeatedly ordered not to look by those magic words, never mind the facts, it's all just a conspiracy theory". Cud chewers may now return to chewing and don't forget to hurry on down to get your "An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you know and what you don't. ~ Anatole France
"An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you know and what you don't. ~ Anatole France
Miskolczi resigned in protest, stating in his resignation letter, "Unfortunately my working relationship with my NASA supervisors eroded to a level that I am not able to tolerate. My idea of the freedom of science cannot coexist with the recent NASA practice of handling new climate change related scientific results." No wonder, NASA has just become another political arm of the government (as evidenced by the recent illegal immigration crap that they got involved with)
farmfriend: This is perhaps a naive question, but what do your friends say about the recent climate history of Mars? Earth has been cooling for the last eight years, according to analysis of satellite data. I've been searching online in vain to get a handle on recent temperature trends on our neighbor planet. Anyone you know have information on this question, or do you have a link to sources that discuss Martian temperatures on a decadal scale?
....We are not interested in the good of others; we are interested solely in power. Not wealth or luxury or long life or happiness: only power, pure power. What pure power means you will understand presently. We are different from all the oligarchies of the past, in that we know what we are doing. All the others, even those who resembled ourselves, were cowards and hypocrites. The German Nazis and the Russian Communists came very close to us in their methods, but they never had the courage to recognize their own motives. They pretended, perhaps they even believed, that they had seized power unwillingly and for a limited time, and that just round the corner there lay a paradise where human beings would be free and equal. We are not like that. We know that no one ever seizes power with the intention of relinquishing it. Power is not a means, it is an end. One does not establish a dictatorship in order to safeguard a revolution; one makes the revolution in order to establish the dictatorship. The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power..... .... 'How does one man assert his power over another, Winston?' Winston thought. 'By making him suffer,' he said. 'Exactly. By making him suffer. Obedience is not enough. Unless he is suffering, how can you be sure that he is obeying your will and not his own? Power is in inflicting pain and humiliation. Power is in tearing human minds to pieces and putting them together again in new shapes of your own choosing. Do you begin to see, then, what kind of world we are creating? It is the exact opposite of the stupid hedonistic Utopias that the old reformers imagined. A world of fear and treachery is torment, a world of trampling and being trampled upon, a world which will grow not less but more merciless as it refines itself. Progress in our world will be progress towards more pain. The old civilizations claimed that they were founded on love or justice. Ours is founded upon hatred. In our world there will be no emotions except fear, rage, triumph, and self-abasement. Everything else we shall destroy everything. Already we are breaking down the habits of thought which have survived from before the Revolution. We have cut the links between child and parent, and between man and man, and between man and woman. No one dares trust a wife or a child or a friend any longer. But in the future there will be no wives and no friends. Children will be taken from their mothers at birth, as one takes eggs from a hen. The sex instinct will be eradicated. Procreation will be an annual formality like the renewal of a ration card. We shall abolish the orgasm. Our neurologists are at work upon it now. There will be no loyalty, except loyalty towards the Party. There will be no love, except the love of Big Brother. There will be no laughter, except the laugh of triumph over a defeated enemy. There will be no art, no literature, no science. When we are omnipotent we shall have no more need of science. There will be no distinction between beauty and ugliness. There will be no curiosity, no enjoyment of the process of life. All competing pleasures will be destroyed. But always -- do not forget this, Winston -- always there will be the intoxication of power, constantly increasing and constantly growing subtler. Always, at every moment, there will be the thrill of victory, the sensation of trampling on an enemy who is helpless. If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face -- for ever.' ....
It's my opinion that this won't happen. 'They' might try, but ultimately the human spirit will prevail. God is in charge and it always has been, is and always will be a good world. Happy Sunday.
Well, there it is. One article that alters the fundamental ideas of the "Greenhouse Effect" because the atmosphere is not considered infinite in height. “Gold is the money of kings; silver is the money of gentlemen; barter is the money of peasants; but debt is the money of slaves.”
The bigger question is: Why are you not taking advantage and buying up land in Greenland?
Or the North or South Poles? But? despite the largest measured decrease in the overall ice mass in those two geographical regions, you want to use Greenland's measured ice flows as resounding PROOF that there are NOT fundamental global climatic changes ongoing right now. One data point is meaningless amongst the thousands of others.
“Gold is the money of kings; silver is the money of gentlemen; barter is the money of peasants; but debt is the money of slaves.”
Wrong question. Right question: How do you explain the falling average global temperatures since 1998--which have wiped out most of the temperature rise since the late 1970s? In spite of the fact that carbon dioxide levels have continued to increase dramatically since 1998? And how do you explain the fact that the evidence shows beyond any reasonable doubt that temperatures rise 800 years before carbon dioxide does the same?
#2. To: sourcery (#0)
his theory sets an upper limit on the greenhouse effect, a limit which prevents it from warming the Earth more than a certain amount.
"If, from the more wretched parts of the old world, we look at those which are in an advanced stage of improvement, we still find the greedy hand of government thrusting itself into every corner and crevice of industry, and grasping the spoil of the multitude. Invention is continually exercised, to furnish new pretenses for revenues and taxation. It watches prosperity as its prey and permits none to escape without tribute." --Thomas Paine, Rights of Man, 1791
#3. To: farmfriend (#2)
That's what I have been hearing from my climate friends. They had a huge discussion on a column of air I remember. It was over my head so I didn't pay much attention.
#4. To: mininggold (#3)
"If, from the more wretched parts of the old world, we look at those which are in an advanced stage of improvement, we still find the greedy hand of government thrusting itself into every corner and crevice of industry, and grasping the spoil of the multitude. Invention is continually exercised, to furnish new pretenses for revenues and taxation. It watches prosperity as its prey and permits none to escape without tribute." --Thomas Paine, Rights of Man, 1791
#5. To: sourcery, farmfriend, christine, Kamala, TwentyTwelve, Wudidiz, Jethro Tull, FormerLurker, CadetD, ratcat, all (#0)
NASA refused to release the results. Miskolczi believes their motivation is simple. "Money", he tells DailyTech. Research that contradicts the view of an impending crisis jeopardizes funding, not only for his own atmosphere-monitoring project, but all climate-change research. Currently, funding for climate research tops $5 billion per year.
eugenics Flu Vaccination. Big Pharma, controlled by the Banksters, needs the money for more population culling control programs and a nice bottle of Chateau Rothschild 1949.
#6. To: farmfriend (#4)
“Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy, its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery.” ~ Winston Churchill
“The inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of blessings; the inherent virtue of socialism is the equal sharing of miseries.” ~ Winston Churchil
#7. To: sourcery (#0)
NASA refused to release the results. Miskolczi believes their motivation is simple. "Money", he tells DailyTech. Research that contradicts the view of an impending crisis jeopardizes funding, not only for his own atmosphere-monitoring project, but all climate-change research. Currently, funding for climate research tops $5 billion per year.
#8. To: farmfriend (#4)
#9. To: Original_Intent (#5)
"The trouble with people is not that they don't know but that they know so much that ain't so." ~ Josh Billings
#10. To: All (#9)
"The trouble with people is not that they don't know but that they know so much that ain't so." ~ Josh Billings
#11. To: sourcery (#0)
By Golly and Gee Whiz, how wonderful and astute these scientists are.
Now, that they finally realized this marvelous and fantastic concept, how does it explain the obvious correlation with rising CO2 concentrations and rising average Earth atmospheric temperatures?
#12. To: buckeroo (#11)
Now, that they finally realized this marvelous and fantastic concept, how does it explain the obvious correlation with rising CO2 concentrations and rising average Earth atmospheric temperatures?
#13. To: mininggold (#12)
Why are you not taking advantage and buying up land in Greenland?
#14. To: buckeroo (#11)
how does it explain the obvious correlation with rising CO2 concentrations and rising average Earth atmospheric temperatures?
 | "Of all tyrannies, a tyranny exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It may be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end, for they do so with the approval of their own conscience." -- C. S. Lewis |
#15. To: sourcery (#14)
CO2 and temperature rising is an established pair of correlating facts. I never suggested that CO2 concentrations were the only input (as it is just a gas that blankets heat in the atmosphere) but an important contributor irrespective of lead or lag in measurements. But, using your own Vostek graph (above), please note that you are seeing temperature lag not lead CO2 concentrations just a couple of thousand years ago. The pair of inter-twinable facts are incredible to note, as this was about the time mankind initiated massive deforestation efforts for ranching and agrarian use.
“Gold is the money of kings; silver is the money of gentlemen; barter is the money of peasants; but debt is the money of slaves.”
#16. To: sourcery (#14)
If the planet is cooling (which it isn't) how do you account the below: 16 September 2009 The polar ice cap is melting fast. Climate change is having a profound effect on the Arctic. The polar ice cap is melting fast, which may open the fabled Northwest Passage to commercial shipping and make it easier to explore the vast mineral wealth below the North Pole. But there are fears of a new ‘gold rush’ in the Arctic that could have serious implications on the world’s fragile ecological as well as political balance. The Northwest Passage, the sea route that connects the Pacific and Atlantic oceans through the Arctic Circle, has for centuries been an elusive goal for explorers and seafarers. Thick year-round ice made it virtually impassable. But as the sea ice has melted, the passage has opened in summer in the past few years, raising the possibility that, within a few years, ordinary ships could sail through it regularly. Two German freighters are set to dock in Rotterdam next week having travelled from South Korea via the Northern Sea Route - the Northeast Passage that skirts the top of Russia. They are the first commercial ships to travel the route, which is also becoming open as the sea ice melts. An open Northwest Passage is a tantalising prospect: it offers a short cut between Asia and Europe that would take thousands of miles off the voyage, while oil extracted in Alaska could be transported much more quickly to the Eastern Seaboard and Europe. Using the route could save billions of dollars in transportation costs. But these savings would likely be at least partly offset by higher insurance premiums for travelling through the hazardous waters. The region remains untamed and largely uncharted. Navigational maps are sketchy while the only real work to map the seabed was done by the military during the Cold War. Conditions are incredibly harsh and ships that get into distress would be thousands of miles from help. “The remoteness of the area and the lack of salvage facilities is a real concern for underwriters,” says Mike Thompson, Chairman of the Navigating Limits Committee for the Lloyd’s Market Association. The condition of vessels looking to undertake the perilous voyage and their crews’ experience of navigating through ice would also be crucial considerations for insurers, Thompson adds. The potential opening up of the passage has also triggered political tensions between the five nations who neighbour the Arctic: Canada, Russia, Denmark (through Greenland), Norway, and the United States. Canada, around whose outer islands the route weaves a path, has claimed the passage as its internal water; but the United States and other countries dispute this, arguing that it is an international waterway. Although at loggerheads over its sovereignty, both Canada and the U.S. are increasingly concerned by the implications to their national security of the passage being open to international shipping. The melting ice also opens up the Arctic to exploration for minerals and natural resources. With 90 billion barrels of oil and 1,670 trillion cubic feet of natural gas estimated to lie beneath the Arctic seabed, the potential riches on offer are enormous. The five countries bordering the Arctic are staking their claims to parts of the region and there are fears the potential for an Arctic ‘gold rush’ could further inflame tensions between Russia and western powers. Russia has sketched out plans for a military force in the Arctic, while Canada and Denmark have conducted military exercises in the region. According to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, for a country to extend its maritime boundaries beyond the conventional 200 nautical miles it must prove that the seabed is part of its continental landmass. Russia planted its country’s flag on the seabed below the North Pole in August 2007, claiming that the Lomonosov Ridge, which runs beneath the pole, is connected to Russia’s continental shelf. Denmark and Canada dispute this. Iceland, Sweden, Norway and Canada should work with Denmark and the US to defend their regional interests and ensure Arctic exploration is conducted safely, says Cleo Paskal, Associate Fellow of the Royal Institute of International Affairs. “My view is that Western security interests and commercial interests are not mutually exclusive. There is a need for tightening down access in the Arctic,” Paskal says. If the passage does become open, verification stations should be established at either end of the route to monitor shipping, proposes Paskal. “It would improve security … It would also benefit the shipping industry, because it would ensure that ships going into that area are properly equipped to do so.” The cost of the stations could be paid by a toll on shipping that could be offset by lower insurance premiums, Paskal says. Such a scheme is a possibility, says Thompson, pointing to similar arrangments that exists to observe and support shipping on the St Lawrence Seaway. “If this becomes a viable route then I’m sure there will be a demand for salvage facilities over time. That would require investment from the Canadians to build ports along the passage,” Thompson says. “Also, from a safety perspective if I were Canadian I would insist on monitoring stations. Regardless of whether it is Canadian internal water, the route runs past its coastline in a region that is extremely sensitive both because of its ecology and the existence of an indigenous population.” The impact of climate change on security and business in the Arctic region is one of the key issues that will be examined at a joint Lloyd’s and NATO risk conference being held at Lloyd’s on Thursday 1 October. Last updated on 17 Sep 2009How do you explain the falling average global temperatures since 1998--which have wiped out most of the temperature rise since the late 1970s? In spite of the fact that carbon dioxide levels have continued to increase dramatically since 1998?
Melting Arctic Ice Cap increases prospect of open North West Passage
“Gold is the money of kings; silver is the money of gentlemen; barter is the money of peasants; but debt is the money of slaves.”
#17. To: randge (#8) (Edited)
No body has mentioned Mars. Very few if any of them are Astronomers. Timo, a climatologist, used to look at solar activity and current as well as past climate. I doubt NASA will be forth coming with Mars temps since skeptics would just on cooling temps as proof of a solar relationship. So far NASA has dicounted warming on other planets as having other causes. I'll pose this quesiton to them.
"If, from the more wretched parts of the old world, we look at those which are in an advanced stage of improvement, we still find the greedy hand of government thrusting itself into every corner and crevice of industry, and grasping the spoil of the multitude. Invention is continually exercised, to furnish new pretenses for revenues and taxation. It watches prosperity as its prey and permits none to escape without tribute." --Thomas Paine, Rights of Man, 1791
#18. To: farmfriend (#17)
Thank you, farmfriend. I'm going to keep looking for info on this topic because it keeps coming up in the climate change debate. I'll be very interested in what you unearth.
#19. To: sourcery, buckeroo, all (#14)
Chemtrails.
How do you explain the falling average global temperatures since 1998--which have wiped out most of the temperature rise since the late 1970s?
"The trouble with people is not that they don't know but that they know so much that ain't so." ~ Josh Billings
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