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Title: Researcher: Basic Greenhouse Equations "Totally Wrong"
Source:
DailyTech
URL Source: http://www.dailytech.com/Researcher ... Totally+Wrong/article10973.htm
Published: Mar 6, 2008
Author: Michael Asher
Post Date: 2009-09-27 03:50:50 by sourcery
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Keywords: None
Views: 265
Comments: 19
New derivation of equations governing the greenhouse effect reveals "runaway warming" impossible Miklós Zágoni isn't just a physicist and environmental researcher. He is also a global warming activist and Hungary's most outspoken supporter of the Kyoto Protocol. Or was. That was until he learned the details of a new theory of the greenhouse effect, one that not only gave far more accurate climate predictions here on Earth, but Mars too. The theory was developed by another Hungarian scientist, Ferenc Miskolczi, an atmospheric physicist with 30 years of experience and a former researcher with NASA's Langley Research Center. After studying it, Zágoni stopped calling global warming a crisis, and has instead focused on presenting the new theory to other climatologists. The data fit extremely well. "I fell in love," he stated at the International Climate Change Conference this week. "Runaway greenhouse theories contradict energy balance equations," Miskolczi states. Just as the theory of relativity sets an upper limit on velocity, his theory sets an upper limit on the greenhouse effect, a limit which prevents it from warming the Earth more than a certain amount. How did modern researchers make such a mistake? They relied upon equations derived over 80 years ago, equations which left off one term from the final solution. Miskolczi's story reads like a book. Looking at a series of differential equations for the greenhouse effect, he noticed the solution -- originally done in 1922 by Arthur Milne, but still used by climate researchers today -- ignored boundary conditions by assuming an "infinitely thick" atmosphere. Similar assumptions are common when solving differential equations; they simplify the calculations and often result in a result that still very closely matches reality. But not always. So Miskolczi re-derived the solution, this time using the proper boundary conditions for an atmosphere that is not infinite. His result included a new term, which acts as a negative feedback to counter the positive forcing. At low levels, the new term means a small difference ... but as greenhouse gases rise, the negative feedback predominates, forcing values back down. NASA refused to release the results. Miskolczi believes their motivation is simple. "Money", he tells DailyTech. Research that contradicts the view of an impending crisis jeopardizes funding, not only for his own atmosphere-monitoring project, but all climate-change research. Currently, funding for climate research tops $5 billion per year. Miskolczi resigned in protest, stating in his resignation letter, "Unfortunately my working relationship with my NASA supervisors eroded to a level that I am not able to tolerate. My idea of the freedom of science cannot coexist with the recent NASA practice of handling new climate change related scientific results." His theory was eventually published in a peer-reviewed scientific journal in his home country of Hungary. The conclusions are supported by research published in the Journal of Geophysical Research last year from Steven Schwartz of Brookhaven National Labs, who gave statistical evidence that the Earth's response to carbon dioxide was grossly overstated. It also helps to explain why current global climate models continually predict more warming than actually measured. The equations also answer thorny problems raised by current theory, which doesn't explain why "runaway" greenhouse warming hasn't happened in the Earth's past. The new theory predicts that greenhouse gas increases should result in small, but very rapid temperature spikes, followed by much longer, slower periods of cooling -- exactly what the paleoclimatic record demonstrates. However, not everyone is convinced. Dr. Stephen Garner, with the NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), says such negative feedback effects are "not very plausible". Reto Ruedy of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies says greenhouse theory is "200 year old science" and doubts the possibility of dramatic changes to the basic theory. Miskowlczi has used his theory to model not only Earth, but the Martian atmosphere as well, showing what he claims is an extremely good fit with observational results. For now, the data for Venus is too limited for similar analysis, but Miskolczi hopes it will one day be possible.
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Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 16.
#11. To: sourcery (#0)
Well, there it is. One article that alters the fundamental ideas of the "Greenhouse Effect" because the atmosphere is not considered infinite in height.
Wrong question. Right question: How do you explain the falling average global temperatures since 1998--which have wiped out most of the temperature rise since the late 1970s? In spite of the fact that carbon dioxide levels have continued to increase dramatically since 1998? And how do you explain the fact that the evidence shows beyond any reasonable doubt that temperatures rise 800 years before carbon dioxide does the same?
If the planet is cooling (which it isn't) how do you account the below: 16 September 2009 The polar ice cap is melting fast. Climate change is having a profound effect on the Arctic. The polar ice cap is melting fast, which may open the fabled Northwest Passage to commercial shipping and make it easier to explore the vast mineral wealth below the North Pole. But there are fears of a new ‘gold rush’ in the Arctic that could have serious implications on the world’s fragile ecological as well as political balance. The Northwest Passage, the sea route that connects the Pacific and Atlantic oceans through the Arctic Circle, has for centuries been an elusive goal for explorers and seafarers. Thick year-round ice made it virtually impassable. But as the sea ice has melted, the passage has opened in summer in the past few years, raising the possibility that, within a few years, ordinary ships could sail through it regularly. Two German freighters are set to dock in Rotterdam next week having travelled from South Korea via the Northern Sea Route - the Northeast Passage that skirts the top of Russia. They are the first commercial ships to travel the route, which is also becoming open as the sea ice melts. An open Northwest Passage is a tantalising prospect: it offers a short cut between Asia and Europe that would take thousands of miles off the voyage, while oil extracted in Alaska could be transported much more quickly to the Eastern Seaboard and Europe. Using the route could save billions of dollars in transportation costs. But these savings would likely be at least partly offset by higher insurance premiums for travelling through the hazardous waters. The region remains untamed and largely uncharted. Navigational maps are sketchy while the only real work to map the seabed was done by the military during the Cold War. Conditions are incredibly harsh and ships that get into distress would be thousands of miles from help. “The remoteness of the area and the lack of salvage facilities is a real concern for underwriters,” says Mike Thompson, Chairman of the Navigating Limits Committee for the Lloyd’s Market Association. The condition of vessels looking to undertake the perilous voyage and their crews’ experience of navigating through ice would also be crucial considerations for insurers, Thompson adds. The potential opening up of the passage has also triggered political tensions between the five nations who neighbour the Arctic: Canada, Russia, Denmark (through Greenland), Norway, and the United States. Canada, around whose outer islands the route weaves a path, has claimed the passage as its internal water; but the United States and other countries dispute this, arguing that it is an international waterway. Although at loggerheads over its sovereignty, both Canada and the U.S. are increasingly concerned by the implications to their national security of the passage being open to international shipping. The melting ice also opens up the Arctic to exploration for minerals and natural resources. With 90 billion barrels of oil and 1,670 trillion cubic feet of natural gas estimated to lie beneath the Arctic seabed, the potential riches on offer are enormous. The five countries bordering the Arctic are staking their claims to parts of the region and there are fears the potential for an Arctic ‘gold rush’ could further inflame tensions between Russia and western powers. Russia has sketched out plans for a military force in the Arctic, while Canada and Denmark have conducted military exercises in the region. According to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, for a country to extend its maritime boundaries beyond the conventional 200 nautical miles it must prove that the seabed is part of its continental landmass. Russia planted its country’s flag on the seabed below the North Pole in August 2007, claiming that the Lomonosov Ridge, which runs beneath the pole, is connected to Russia’s continental shelf. Denmark and Canada dispute this. Iceland, Sweden, Norway and Canada should work with Denmark and the US to defend their regional interests and ensure Arctic exploration is conducted safely, says Cleo Paskal, Associate Fellow of the Royal Institute of International Affairs. “My view is that Western security interests and commercial interests are not mutually exclusive. There is a need for tightening down access in the Arctic,” Paskal says. If the passage does become open, verification stations should be established at either end of the route to monitor shipping, proposes Paskal. “It would improve security … It would also benefit the shipping industry, because it would ensure that ships going into that area are properly equipped to do so.” The cost of the stations could be paid by a toll on shipping that could be offset by lower insurance premiums, Paskal says. Such a scheme is a possibility, says Thompson, pointing to similar arrangments that exists to observe and support shipping on the St Lawrence Seaway. “If this becomes a viable route then I’m sure there will be a demand for salvage facilities over time. That would require investment from the Canadians to build ports along the passage,” Thompson says. “Also, from a safety perspective if I were Canadian I would insist on monitoring stations. Regardless of whether it is Canadian internal water, the route runs past its coastline in a region that is extremely sensitive both because of its ecology and the existence of an indigenous population.” The impact of climate change on security and business in the Arctic region is one of the key issues that will be examined at a joint Lloyd’s and NATO risk conference being held at Lloyd’s on Thursday 1 October. Last updated on 17 Sep 2009
There are no replies to Comment # 16. End Trace Mode for Comment # 16.
Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/LatestBy Golly and Gee Whiz, how wonderful and astute these scientists are.
Now, that they finally realized this marvelous and fantastic concept, how does it explain the obvious correlation with rising CO2 concentrations and rising average Earth atmospheric temperatures?
#14. To: buckeroo (#11)
how does it explain the obvious correlation with rising CO2 concentrations and rising average Earth atmospheric temperatures?
#16. To: sourcery (#14)
How do you explain the falling average global temperatures since 1998--which have wiped out most of the temperature rise since the late 1970s? In spite of the fact that carbon dioxide levels have continued to increase dramatically since 1998?
Melting Arctic Ice Cap increases prospect of open North West Passage
Replies to Comment # 16.