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Title: What happened to global warming?
Source:
BBC News
URL Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8299079.stm
Published: Oct 9, 2009
Author: Paul Hudson
Post Date: 2009-10-09 22:00:26 by sourcery
Ping List: *Agriculture-Environment* Subscribe to *Agriculture-Environment*
Keywords: None
Views: 264
Comments: 24
This headline may come as a bit of a surprise, so too might that fact that the warmest year recorded globally was not in 2008 or 2007, but in 1998. But it is true. For the last 11 years we have not observed any increase in global temperatures. And our climate models did not forecast it, even though man-made carbon dioxide, the gas thought to be responsible for warming our planet, has continued to rise. So what on Earth is going on? Climate change sceptics, who passionately and consistently argue that man's influence on our climate is overstated, say they saw it coming. They argue that there are natural cycles, over which we have no control, that dictate how warm the planet is. But what is the evidence for this? During the last few decades of the 20th century, our planet did warm quickly. Sceptics argue that the warming we observed was down to the energy from the Sun increasing. After all 98% of the Earth's warmth comes from the Sun. But research conducted two years ago, and published by the Royal Society, seemed to rule out solar influences. The scientists' main approach was simple: to look at solar output and cosmic ray intensity over the last 30-40 years, and compare those trends with the graph for global average surface temperature. And the results were clear. "Warming in the last 20 to 40 years can't have been caused by solar activity," said Dr Piers Forster from Leeds University, a leading contributor to this year's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). But one solar scientist Piers Corbyn from Weatheraction, a company specialising in long range weather forecasting, disagrees. He claims that solar charged particles impact us far more than is currently accepted, so much so he says that they are almost entirely responsible for what happens to global temperatures. He is so excited by what he has discovered that he plans to tell the international scientific community at a conference in London at the end of the month. If proved correct, this could revolutionise the whole subject. Ocean cycles What is really interesting at the moment is what is happening to our oceans. They are the Earth's great heat stores. According to research conducted by Professor Don Easterbrook from Western Washington University last November, the oceans and global temperatures are correlated. The oceans, he says, have a cycle in which they warm and cool cyclically. The most important one is the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). For much of the 1980s and 1990s, it was in a positive cycle, that means warmer than average. And observations have revealed that global temperatures were warm too. But in the last few years it has been losing its warmth and has recently started to cool down. These cycles in the past have lasted for nearly 30 years. So could global temperatures follow? The global cooling from 1945 to 1977 coincided with one of these cold Pacific cycles. Professor Easterbrook says: "The PDO cool mode has replaced the warm mode in the Pacific Ocean, virtually assuring us of about 30 years of global cooling." So what does it all mean? Climate change sceptics argue that this is evidence that they have been right all along. They say there are so many other natural causes for warming and cooling, that even if man is warming the planet, it is a small part compared with nature. But those scientists who are equally passionate about man's influence on global warming argue that their science is solid. The UK Met Office's Hadley Centre, responsible for future climate predictions, says it incorporates solar variation and ocean cycles into its climate models, and that they are nothing new. In fact, the centre says they are just two of the whole host of known factors things that influence global temperatures - all of which are accounted for by its models. In addition, say Met Office scientists, temperatures have never increased in a straight line, and there will always be periods of slower warming, or even temporary cooling. What is crucial, they say, is the long-term trend in global temperatures. And that, according to the Met office data, is clearly up. To confuse the issue even further, last month Mojib Latif, a member of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) says that we may indeed be in a period of cooling worldwide temperatures that could last another 10-20 years. Professor Latif is based at the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences at Kiel University in Germany and is one of the world's top climate modellers. But he makes it clear that he has not become a sceptic; he believes that this cooling will be temporary, before the overwhelming force of man-made global warming reasserts itself. So what can we expect in the next few years? Both sides have very different forecasts. The Met Office says that warming is set to resume quickly and strongly. It predicts that from 2010 to 2015 at least half the years will be hotter than the current hottest year on record (1998). Sceptics disagree. They insist it is unlikely that temperatures will reach the dizzy heights of 1998 until 2030 at the earliest. It is possible, they say, that because of ocean and solar cycles a period of global cooling is more likely. One thing is for sure. It seems the debate about what is causing global warming is far from over. Indeed some would say its hotting up.
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#1. To: sourcery (#0)
Oh man you beat me. I had that up to post but got caught up in a conversation and didn't get it done.
It is true that you are late recognizing the facts concerning global warming. It isn't all your fault, either. It could all be because of your tea and crumpets taking all the day with your needle friends.
“Gold is the money of kings; silver is the money of gentlemen; barter is the money of peasants; but debt is the money of slaves.”
LOL yeah but my quilts are beautiful. You'll wish you had one soon!
Global Warming, Schmobal Warming. There's global warming like Obama deserves a Nobel Peace Prize. Doesn't feel warm to me. Feels like it's getting colder. I don't care what the TV says. chemtrails
Does the TV really talk to you?
“Gold is the money of kings; silver is the money of gentlemen; barter is the money of peasants; but debt is the money of slaves.”
It is.
LOL Maybe.
It is. Thank you. At least I'm not alone. We gotta get bucky to come around..
So many 2s and 4s.
And do any of these researchers discuss the effects of HAARP, or the chemtrails that are influencing our weather?
yes we do, but fear not, cooling will convince him.
No they don't.
It seems a little warm here in Riverside County, CA. And we are running out of water. But fear not! I hear there are ice cream trucks in urban areas to chase after.
“Gold is the money of kings; silver is the money of gentlemen; barter is the money of peasants; but debt is the money of slaves.”
OH, THANK YOU!!!!!!!!!
There is no global warming. It's a big scam.
May I have your permission to quote you?
“Gold is the money of kings; silver is the money of gentlemen; barter is the money of peasants; but debt is the money of slaves.”
I appreciate you asking. If you're going to quote me then please allow me to re-phrase it. 'Global Warming' is a myth.
That depends on your point of reference. If you mean since either 1998 or 1933, you're right. If you mean since 1600 AD, you'd be wrong. But relative to 1200 AD, you'd be quite right. But then, you'd be wrong relative to 15 thousand years ago. But go back 30 million years, and you'd be very emphatically correct.
"If, from the more wretched parts of the old world, we look at those which are in an advanced stage of improvement, we still find the greedy hand of government thrusting itself into every corner and crevice of industry, and grasping the spoil of the multitude. Invention is continually exercised, to furnish new pretenses for revenues and taxation. It watches prosperity as its prey and permits none to escape without tribute." --Thomas Paine, Rights of Man, 1791
#2. To: farmfriend (#1)
#3. To: buckeroo (#2)
It could all be because of your tea and crumpets taking all the day with your needle friends.
"If, from the more wretched parts of the old world, we look at those which are in an advanced stage of improvement, we still find the greedy hand of government thrusting itself into every corner and crevice of industry, and grasping the spoil of the multitude. Invention is continually exercised, to furnish new pretenses for revenues and taxation. It watches prosperity as its prey and permits none to escape without tribute." --Thomas Paine, Rights of Man, 1791
#4. To: sourcery (#0)
"The trouble with people is not that they don't know but that they know so much that ain't so." ~ Josh Billings
#5. To: wudidiz (#4)
I don't care what the TV says.
#6. To: wudidiz (#4)
Feels like it's getting colder.
"If, from the more wretched parts of the old world, we look at those which are in an advanced stage of improvement, we still find the greedy hand of government thrusting itself into every corner and crevice of industry, and grasping the spoil of the multitude. Invention is continually exercised, to furnish new pretenses for revenues and taxation. It watches prosperity as its prey and permits none to escape without tribute." --Thomas Paine, Rights of Man, 1791
#7. To: buckeroo (#5)
Does the TV really talk to you?
"The trouble with people is not that they don't know but that they know so much that ain't so." ~ Josh Billings
#8. To: farmfriend, buckeroo (#6)
Feels like it's getting colder.
"The trouble with people is not that they don't know but that they know so much that ain't so." ~ Josh Billings
#9. To: All (#8)
22:24:44
"The trouble with people is not that they don't know but that they know so much that ain't so." ~ Josh Billings
#10. To: sourcery (#0)
#11. To: wudidiz (#8)
We gotta get bucky to come around..
"If, from the more wretched parts of the old world, we look at those which are in an advanced stage of improvement, we still find the greedy hand of government thrusting itself into every corner and crevice of industry, and grasping the spoil of the multitude. Invention is continually exercised, to furnish new pretenses for revenues and taxation. It watches prosperity as its prey and permits none to escape without tribute." --Thomas Paine, Rights of Man, 1791
#12. To: Lod (#10)
And do any of these researchers discuss the effects of HAARP, or the chemtrails that are influencing our weather?
"If, from the more wretched parts of the old world, we look at those which are in an advanced stage of improvement, we still find the greedy hand of government thrusting itself into every corner and crevice of industry, and grasping the spoil of the multitude. Invention is continually exercised, to furnish new pretenses for revenues and taxation. It watches prosperity as its prey and permits none to escape without tribute." --Thomas Paine, Rights of Man, 1791
#13. To: farmfriend, wudidiz (#11)
#14. To: Lod (#10)
And do any of these researchers discuss the effects of HAARP, or the chemtrails that are influencing our weather?
"The trouble with people is not that they don't know but that they know so much that ain't so." ~ Josh Billings
#15. To: buckeroo (#13)
It seems a little warm here in Riverside County, CA. And we are running out of water. But fear not! I hear there are ice cream trucks in urban areas to chase after.
"The trouble with people is not that they don't know but that they know so much that ain't so." ~ Josh Billings
#16. To: wudidiz (#15)
There is no global warming.
#17. To: buckeroo (#16)
May I have your permission to quote you?
"The trouble with people is not that they don't know but that they know so much that ain't so." ~ Josh Billings
#18. To: wudidiz (#15)
There is no global warming.
 | "Of all tyrannies, a tyranny exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It may be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end, for they do so with the approval of their own conscience." -- C. S. Lewis |
#19. To: sourcery (#18)
Yes, thank you. That's basically why I changed it to "'Global Warming' is a myth" at #17 I guess.
"The trouble with people is not that they don't know but that they know so much that ain't so." ~ Josh Billings
#20. To: All (#19)
I'm out. Good night.
"The trouble with people is not that they don't know but that they know so much that ain't so." ~ Josh Billings
#21. To: wudidiz (#17)
So, all of a sudden you are changing your tune, 'eh?
“Gold is the money of kings; silver is the money of gentlemen; barter is the money of peasants; but debt is the money of slaves.”
#22. To: sourcery (#0)
In addition, say Met Office scientists, temperatures have never increased in a straight line, and there will always be periods of slower warming, or even temporary cooling. Fine, but can he predict those periods? Prediction is the point of science, after all, not just an elaborate, lovely, ontology.
In fact, the centre says they are just two of the whole host of known factors things that influence global temperatures - all of which are accounted for by its models.
What do you get when you take a neocon and subtract Zionism?
#23. To: Prefrontal Vortex (#22)
That's the rub isn't it? The Met didn't predict the cooling we are experiencing now. Piers Corbyn on the other hand has very accurate predictions. More accurate than the local weatherman and done months in advance. He is developing a business based on his weather forecasting.
Fine, but can he predict those periods?
"If, from the more wretched parts of the old world, we look at those which are in an advanced stage of improvement, we still find the greedy hand of government thrusting itself into every corner and crevice of industry, and grasping the spoil of the multitude. Invention is continually exercised, to furnish new pretenses for revenues and taxation. It watches prosperity as its prey and permits none to escape without tribute." --Thomas Paine, Rights of Man, 1791
#24. To: buckeroo (#21)
Not sure how you figure that. I simply clarified my statement, didn't I?
So, all of a sudden you are changing your tune, 'eh?
"The trouble with people is not that they don't know but that they know so much that ain't so." ~ Josh Billings
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