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Title: Ten Facts & Ten Myths On Climate Change
Source:
Rense/Global Research
URL Source: http://www.rense.com/general88/climchn.htm
Published: Dec 10, 2009
Author: Prof. Robert M. Carter
Post Date: 2009-12-10 11:31:11 by Original_Intent
Keywords: Glowbull, PsyOp, Fraud, Global
Views: 217
Comments: 17
Ten Facts & Ten Myths On Climate Change By Prof. Robert M. Carter James Cook University, Queensland, Australia Global Research.ca 12-9-9 1. Climate has always changed, and it always will. The assumption that prior to the industrial revolution the Earth had a "stable" climate is simply wrong. The only sensible thing to do about climate change is to prepare for it. 2. Accurate temperature measurements made from weather balloons and satellites since the late 1950s show no atmospheric warmingsince 1958. In contrast, averaged ground-based thermometers record a warming of about 0.40 C over the same time period. Many scientists believe that the thermometer record is biased by the Urban Heat Island effect and other artefacts. 3. Despite the expenditure of more than US$50 billion dollars looking for it since 1990, no unambiguous anthropogenic (human) signal has been identified in the global temperature pattern. 4. Without the greenhouse effect, the average surface temperature on Earth would be -180 C rather than the equable +150 C that has nurtured the development of life. Carbon dioxide is a minor greenhouse gas, responsible for ~26% (80 C) of the total greenhouse effect (330C), of which in turn at most 25% (~20C) can be attributed to carbon dioxide contributed by human activity. Water vapour, contributing at least 70% of the effect, is by far the most important atmospheric greenhouse gas. 5. On both annual (1 year) and geological (up to 100,000 year) time scales, changes in atmospheric temperature PRECEDE changes in CO2. Carbon dioxide therefore cannot be the primary forcing agent for temperature increase (though increasing CO2 does cause a diminishingly mild positive temperature feedback). 6. The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has acted as the main scaremonger for the global warming lobby that led to the Kyoto Protocol. Fatally, the IPCC is a political, not scientific, body. Hendrik Tennekes, a retired Director of Research at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, says that "the IPCC review process is fatally flawed" and that "the IPCC wilfully ignores the paradigm shift created by the foremost meteorologist of the twentieth century, Edward Lorenz". 7. The Kyoto Protocol will cost many trillions of dollars and exercises a significant impost those countries that signed it, but will deliver no significant cooling (less than .020 C by 2050, assuming that all commitments are met). The Russian Academy of Sciences says that Kyoto has no scientific basis; Andre Illarianov, senior advisor to Russian president Putin, calls Kyoto-ism "one of the most agressive, intrusive, destructive ideologies since the collapse of communism and fascism". If Kyoto was a "first step" then it was in the same wrong direction as the later "Bali roadmap". 8. Climate change is a non-linear (chaotic) process, some parts of which are only dimly or not at all understood. No deterministic computer model will ever be able to make an accurate prediction of climate 100 years into the future. 9. Not surprisingly, therefore, experts in computer modelling agree also that no current (or likely near-future) climate model is able to make accurate predictions of regional climate change. 10. The biggest untruth about human global warming is the assertion that nearly all scientists agree that it is occurring, and at a dangerous rate. The reality is that almost every aspect of climate science is the subject of vigorous debate. Further, thousands of qualified scientists worldwide have signed declarations which (i) query the evidence for hypothetical human-caused warming and (ii) support a rational scientific (not emotional) approach to its study within the context of known natural climate change. LAYING TEN GLOBAL WARMING MYTHS Myth 1 Average global temperature (AGT) has increased over the last few years. Fact 1 Within error bounds, AGT has not increased since 1995 and has declined since 2002, despite an increase in atmospheric CO2 of 8% since 1995. Myth 2 During the late 20th Century, AGT increased at a dangerously fast rate and reached an unprecedented magnitude. Facts 2 The late 20th Century AGT rise was at a rate of 1-20 C/century, which lies well within natural rates of climate change for the last 10,000 yr. AGT has been several degrees warmer than today many times in the recent geological past. Myth 3 AGT was relatively unchanging in pre-industrial times, has sky-rocketed since 1900, and will increase by several degrees more over the next 100 years (the Mann, Bradley & Hughes "hockey stick" curve and its computer extrapolation). Facts 3 The Mann et al. curve has been exposed as a statistical contrivance. There is no convincing evidence that past climate was unchanging, nor that 20th century changes in AGT were unusual, nor that dangerous human warming is underway. Myth 4 Computer models predict that AGT will increase by up to 60 C over the next 100 years. Facts 4 Deterministic computer models do. Other equally valid (empirical) computer models predict cooling. Myth 5 Warming of more than 20 C will have catastrophic effects on ecosystems and mankind alike. Facts 5 A 20 C change would be well within previous natural bounds. Ecosystems have been adapting to such changes since time immemorial. The result is the process that we call evolution. Mankind can and does adapt to all climate extremes. Myth 6 Further human addition of CO2 to the atmosphere will cause dangerous warming, and is generally harmful. Facts 6 No human-caused warming can yet be detected that is distinct from natural system variation and noise. Any additional human-caused warming which occurs will probably amount to less than 10 C. Atmospheric CO2 is a beneficial fertilizer for plants, including especially cereal crops, and also aids efficient evapo-transpiration. Myth 7 Changes in solar activity cannot explain recent changes in AGT. Facts 7 The sun's output varies in several ways on many time scales (including the 11-, 22 and 80-year solar cycles), with concomitant effects on Earth's climate. While changes in visible radiation are small, changes in particle flux and magnetic field are known to exercise a strong climatic effect. More than 50% of the 0.80 C rise in AGT observed during the 20th century can be attributed to solar change. Myth 8 Unprecedented melting of ice is taking place in both the north and south polar regions. Facts 8 Both the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are growing in thickness and cooling at their summit. Sea ice around Antarctica attained a record area in 2007. Temperatures in the Arctic region are just now achieving the levels of natural warmth experienced during the early 1940s, and the region was warmer still (sea-ice free) during earlier times. Myth 9 Human-caused global warming is causing dangerous global sea-level (SL) rise. Facts 9 SL change differs from time to time and place to place; between 1955 and 1996, for example, SL at Tuvalu fell by 105 mm (2.5 mm/yr). Global average SL is a statistical measure of no value for environmental planning purposes. A global average SL rise of 1-2 mm/yr occurred naturally over the last 150 years, and shows no sign of human-influenced increase. Myth 10 The late 20th Century increase in AGT caused an increase in the number of severe storms (cyclones), or in storm intensity. Facts 10 Meteorological experts are agreed that no increase in storms has occurred beyond that associated with natural variation of the climate system. Robert M. Carter is a Research Professor at James Cook University (Queensland) and the University of Adelaide (South Australia). He is a palaeontologist, stratigrapher, marine geologist and environmental scientist with more than thirty years professional experience. © Copyright Robert M. Carter, James Cook University, Queensland, Australia, 2009
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#1. To: christine, farmfriend, CadetD, wudidiz, Rotara, TwentyTwelve, James Deffenbach, Jethro Tull, IndieTX, Lod, HOUNDDAWG, HighLairEon, Kamala, randge, X-15, scrapper2, HappyToBeMe-4um, Itistoolate, Esso, , ratcat, Cynicom, freepatriot32, abraxas, all (#0)
(((((Glowbull Warming Alert)))))
"An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you know and what you don't. ~ Anatole France
AGW = Al Gore Warmth/wealth-mongering
Albert Goreski-Schiff should be locked away, once and for all time. What a scam artist.
Funny! At would 150C we would all be dead.
God is always good!
Presumably, the earth was mostly warm and tropical during the dinosaurs existence, then there was a massive ice-age that ended around 10,000 years ago, neither climate was the end result of interference from man. IF the GW- crowd is correct, then the earth's natural state is as it was eleventy-billion years ago and we should roll with it. Either way, not one thin dime should be expended in some grandiose scheme which will only destroy the wealth of nations.
_________________________________________________________________________ And .......... (one of) the biggest untruths is that today's scientists are actually of the quality of the scientists of fifty years ago.
This guy doesn't know what he is talking about. CO2 is INSIGNIFICANT compared to H2O as a greenhouse gas. It is not 25% attributed to man made! That is pure baloney.
God is always good!
Probably a typo and it should be +15C.
"An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you know and what you don't. ~ Anatole France
CO2 can account for only 8% of the absorption of IR radiation in atmosphere if H2O is not considered. But since it must be considered because it is there and overlaps much of what CO2 absorbs then CO2 can only absorb at most 4% of IR radiation. But since most of this is already being absorbed by current CO2 levels in the atmosphere increasing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere will only ever so slightly increase the amount of absorption. Possibly from 3.99% to 3.995%, which can never be more than 4% total no matter how much CO2 is in the atmosphere. However, none of this matters to increasing temperatures because greenhouse gasses do not and can not indefinitely trap IR radiation.
God is always good!
Devvy Kidd calls him Al Gorbechev, which I think is way spot-on.
Devvy Kidd calls him Al Gorbechev, which I think is way spot-on. Most, most, interesting, if true.
Not sure she's implying any blood-line between the two, just both commies. But, I believe his daughter married a Schiff a few years ago.
Thought it was a good article but can't quite get my head wrapped around that point--I may be missing something but can't figure out how a centigrade temp of 150 degrees could be called "equable^." It is HOT at 30 C (86 Farenheit and to me that is pretty warm). 150 C is 302 F and I don't believe humans can live at that temperature, not naturally anyway. Maybe there is something missing, like a period between the 8 and the 0 on the first figure and the 5 and the 0 on the second one. ???
Liberty is not a means to a higher political end. It is itself the highest political end. The -180 makes sense but the 150 doesn't. Absolute zero is -272 (or 0 degrees Kelvin) and 15 degrees Celsius is 59 degrees fahrenheit - which makes more sense.
"An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you know and what you don't. ~ Anatole France
Yeah, people can live at 59 degrees ok (assuming they dress for it). I think he had a couple of typos. Otherwise it was an excellent article.
Liberty is not a means to a higher political end. It is itself the highest political end. I disagree. When hypothesis early in science were brought forth they were discounted and ridiculed. Same goes with those scientists bringing out hypothesis on climate. The ones not looking at CO2 of course. There will always be good scientists and bad scientists and those that are good but just plain wrong.
"The only thing better than a Federal Reserve audit would be a Federal Reserve autopsy." ~ unknown
Interesting information. Thanks for posting. -------
#2. To: Original_Intent (#0)
#3. To: Original_Intent (#1)
#4. To: Original_Intent (#0)
4. Without the greenhouse effect, the average surface temperature on Earth would be -180 C rather than the equable +150 C that has nurtured the development of life.
#5. To: Original_Intent (#0)
(Edited)
"This man is Jesus,” shouted one man, spilling his Guinness as Barack Obama began his inaugural address. “When will he come to Kenya to save us?”
-Schweizerische Schuetzenzeitung (Swiss Shooting Federation) April, 1941
#6. To: Original_Intent, christine, farmfriend, CadetD, wudidiz, TwentyTwelve, James Deffenbach, Jethro Tull, IndieTX, Lod, HOUNDDAWG, HighLairEon, Kamala, randge, X-15, scrapper2, HappyToBeMe-4um, Itistoolate (#1)
The biggest untruth about human global warming is the assertion that nearly all scientists agree that it is occurring, and at a dangerous rate.
#7. To: Original_Intent (#0)
(Edited)
Carbon dioxide is a minor greenhouse gas, responsible for ~26% (80 C) of the total greenhouse effect (330C), of which in turn at most 25% (~20C) can be attributed to carbon dioxide contributed by human activity. Water vapour, contributing at least 70% of the effect, is by far the most important atmospheric greenhouse gas.
#8. To: RickyJ (#4)
#9. To: All (#7)
#10. To: Cynicom (#3)
Albert Goreski-Schiff
#11. To: CadetD (#10)
Albert Goreski-Schiff
#12. To: Lod (#11)
if true
#13. To: Original_Intent (#0)
(Edited)
4. Without the greenhouse effect, the average surface temperature on Earth would be -180 C rather than the equable +150 C that has nurtured the development of life.
Lord Acton
#14. To: James Deffenbach (#13)
#15. To: Original_Intent (#14)
Lord Acton
#16. To: beyond the sea, Original_Intent, christine, CadetD, wudidiz, TwentyTwelve, James Deffenbach, Jethro Tull, IndieTX, Lod, HOUNDDAWG, HighLairEon, Kamala, randge, X-15, scrapper2, HappyToBeMe-4um, Itistoolate (#6)
And .......... (one of) the biggest untruths is that today's scientists are actually of the quality of the scientists of fifty years ago.
#17. To: Original_Intent (#0)
"Somewhere, something incredible is waiting to be known."
-Carl Sagan.
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