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Title: Study Turns up 10 Autism Clusters in California
Source: ABC
URL Source: http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wirestory?id=9492635&page=1
Published: Jan 6, 2010
Author: Julie Steenhuysen
Post Date: 2010-01-06 15:57:07 by Prefrontal Vortex
Keywords: None
Views: 176
Comments: 23

Study Turns up 10 Autism Clusters in California

By Julie Steenhuysen
January 6, 2010

CHICAGO (Reuters) - U.S. researchers have identified 10 locations in California that have double the rates of autism found in surrounding areas, and these clusters were located in neighborhoods with high concentrations of white, highly educated parents.

Researchers at the University of California Davis had hoped to uncover pockets of autism that might reveal clues about triggers in the environment that could explain rising rates of autism, which affects as many as one in 110 U.S. children.

But the findings likely say more about the U.S. healthcare system than the causes of autism, said researcher Irva Hertz-Picciotto of UC Davis' MIND Institute, whose study will be released online on Wednesday in the journal Autism Research.

Advocacy groups have been clamoring for treatment options and for better research to show what might be causing an apparent increase in autism cases.

Hertz-Picciotto and colleagues used a research technique that has been effective at identifying cancer clusters.

"This kind of analysis sometimes turns up clues about environmental factors," she said in a telephone interview.

The researchers looked at about 2.5 million births recorded in California from 1996 through 2000. About 10,000 of those children were later diagnosed with an autism spectrum disorder, according to the state's department of developmental services.

Using data from birth records, the team found a strong link between parental education and the high rates of autism."In this particular case, we found 10 clusters of autism across the state of California. When we looked further, we discovered virtually all of them were areas where there was a higher level of education among the parents who were giving birth in those years," Hertz-Picciotto said.

"We already know that people with a higher education in the United States are more likely to get a diagnosis of autism for their child. It doesn't necessarily mean that autism occurs more frequently in those families," she said.

"It was also a greater likelihood to be white, non-Hispanic, and for the parents to be a little bit older."

ACCESS TO HEALTHCARE

Hertz-Picciotto said studies in Denmark, which offers universal access to healthcare, have found no link between autism and race or socioeconomic status.

"In this country, we have a lot of people who are uninsured. They may not have someone to go to if they have suspicions about their child," she said.

She said some communities with lower education levels and fewer resources may have higher rates of undiagnosed autism. But the study did offer new clues about autism.

"What it tells us is if we want to go looking for environmental factors, they are not going to be these focused fixed points of contamination, for example," she said.

"It is probably going to be something much more widespread -- common sorts of exposures that are more across the board."

Hertz-Picciotto said her team is now undertaking two different kinds of studies to look for environmental causes of autism, a spectrum of diseases ranging from severe and profound inability to communicate and mental retardation to relatively mild symptoms called Asperger's syndrome.

In one, her team plans to collect dust samples from the homes of 1,300 families with autistic children to look for common chemicals, such as flame retardants, that might be playing a role.

In another, the researchers are following pregnant women who have already given birth to a child with autism, to see if there are any common exposures that might be a factor in developing autism.

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Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 20.

#2. To: Prefrontal Vortex (#0)

Someone tell these people to check the vaccination records of these children.

Lod  posted on  2010-01-06   16:07:23 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#3. To: All (#2)

Damn.

00:00:20 too late.

Lod  posted on  2010-01-06   16:09:26 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#6. To: Lod, Original_Intent (#3)

00:00:20 too late.

Looks like we're ALL on the same wavelength. Too bad the "researchers" can't find the wavelength we so easily picked up...

FormerLurker  posted on  2010-01-06   16:30:54 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#9. To: Lod, Original_Intent, Prefrontal Vortex (#6)

Looks like we're ALL on the same wavelength.

Well, all but one so far...

FormerLurker  posted on  2010-01-06   16:41:41 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#18. To: FormerLurker (#9)

Well, all but one so far...

Baron-Cohen’s evidence is called “ecological correlation”. As another poster to the Slashdot article pointed out , ecological correlations are subject to the “ecological fallacy”. However, ecological correlations are a good way to do preliminary investigations into unknown sources of new pathologies. As anyone who has had to dignose a complex system knows, you start by gathering gross phenomenology about the system which is rather inexpensive, and then start teasing apart the various potential confounding variables as you find promising (but possibly deceptive) lines of research validated by the preliminary data.

We’re at such a primitive state of understanding of the phenomenon of autism that there is intense disagreement as to whether there has actually been an explosive epidemic in autism over the last 20 years or whether there is simply an explosion in the number of social workers who are prone to make the diagnosis given the same kinds of problems they’ve always faced.

Without getting into the nuances of this debate we can simply say this:

If we behave as though there is a real explosion in the number of cases, we are acting wisely since the cost of being wrong is far less than is the cost of being wrong about there being no explosive epidemic.

Having said that, we have the first reason to discount Baron-Cohen’s research:

Baron-Cohen provides no data to back up the plausible sounding argument for why there might have been increased assortive mating among “nerds”. Byrna Siegel makes the same argument. There are just as plausible arguments that assortive mating among “nerds” has decreased over the same time period—not the least of which is the simple fact that nerds are working in male saturated environments where availability of mates is low, the cost of living is high and job stability is low. In other words, nerds are reproducing at a much lower aggregate rate than they used to, when they were living in more scattered, more gender balanced, more affordable and more inbred rural towns.

The second reason to discount Baron-Cohen’s research is that he doesn’t use the technique of “strong inference” which you really have to do when you’re dealing with such a tenuously supported preliminary investigation. Strong inference means taking at least 2, preferably more, hypotheses and subjecting them to similar tests to see which of them wins in a rational comparison. There are lots of suspected ecological correlations out there—mercury to autism, vaccination to autism, etc. and he doesn’t compare the degree of his ecological correlation to the degree of these other ecological correlations. Note that what I’m not saying here that the ecological fallacy isn’t in play here, nor am I saying that there might be better data supporting or refuting a given hypothesis (say, statistical case studies of individuals). What I am saying is that if you’re going to use strong inference you need to apply similar tests to the different hypotheses and see which of them comes out on top so you can prioritize your subsequent research rationally.

The third reason to discount Baron-Cohen’s research is that he doesn’t even provide hard numbers for the nerd-autism ecological correlation (this is giving him the benefit of the doubt that nerds aren’t having their effective fertility destroyed by other ecological factors).

So what would happen if you tried to do a real, strong inference ecological study of autism comparing the various hypotheses against each to see which has the strongest ecological correlation?

You’d come to the conclusion that the place to look for the cause of autism’s explosive increase over the last 20 years is in areas of high Finnish ancestry where something is imported along with Indian immigrants—quite probably along with lower caste immigrants working in Indian restaurants.

This is because a) there is a plausible argument that autism involves an intestinal pathology that may well be transmissible b) that something has been increasing exponentially to cause an exponential growth of autism and immigration from India fills that bill, c) that only a small portion of the population is susceptible to this pathology over a small portion of their early childhood and d) people with Finnish ancestry are disproportionately represented in many of the areas where Indians have arrived recently and e) if you look at thousands of two-variable combinations of ecological variables aggregated at the State level, the one with the highest correlation coefficient with the Department of Education’s State-by-State autism rate in the year 2000 is Finnish Americans per capita times immigrants from India per capita, Pearson correlation coefficient, r=.60 with a probability of it being due to chance, p less than .001.

Baron-Cohen’s Assortive Mating vs Bowery’s Indian Immigration Hypothesis of Autism

...and we all know why it just can't -- can't! -- be non-white immigration.

Prefrontal Vortex  posted on  2010-01-06   18:12:08 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#20. To: Prefrontal Vortex (#18)

The info you posted is well and fine, but all it does is show that genetics are involved in WHO will be most affected by this sort of heavy metal poisoning.

Some people are geneticaly predisposed to not be able to metabolise heavy metals as well as most other people. Hence, they don't detoxify the mercury and other contaminants in the vaccines, giving those toxins the opportunity to damage neurons in the brain.

Metal- Metabolism and Autism

FormerLurker  posted on  2010-01-07   11:15:16 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


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