[Home]  [Headlines]  [Latest Articles]  [Latest Comments]  [Post]  [Sign-in]  [Mail]  [Setup]  [Help]  [Register] 

Status: Not Logged In; Sign In

As Hedge Funds Dump Everything Else, They Buy Energy & Material Stocks At Fastest Pace In 5 Months

"Traitors" - Musk Blasts Democrats Voting Against Republicans' Election Integrity Bill

These Are The Hottest (And Coldest) Temperatures Ever Recorded In America

"The Sh*t Is Going To Hit The Fan On Monday": DC In Turmoil As Biden Says Only 'Act Of God' Will Dislodge Him

What Democrat Overlords Were Like After the Debate

Biden Continues to Make EVERYONE Super Uncomfortable

Economic Collapse Only Way to Prevent World War III

Flight to New Hampshire diverted after man exposes himself, federal officials say

Satellite Images Show Suspected Chinese Spy Bases Growing in Cuba

Hitler's last secrets revealed thanks to never-before-seen archives

If The British Lost At Trafalgar | Waterloo Never Happens & America Is Not a Global Power

If America LOST The Battle Of Midway: 'Japan Invades Hawaii And Russia Struggles To Fight On'

Killings of surrendering Russians divide Western mercenaries NYT

US sailors gripe about lengthy mission to protect Israel

Armed vagrants set up homeless encampment in backyard of family's historic $800,000 home -

Mob of nearly 100 looters ransacks Oakland gas station as store owner says police took hours to respond

Prosecutors Knew Epstein Had Sex With Underage Girls Years Before Plea Deal, "Outrageous" Transcripts Reveal

Taxpayer-funded Planned Parenthood boasts about being leader in transgender medical procedures

Joe Biden’s Upcoming Fundraiser in Wisconsin Cancelled

Migrants Who Filmed Themselves Gang Raping 13-Year-Old Girl Spared Prison by Liberal Judge

COMBAT! s.3 ep.13: "The Long Walk" (1964)

Over 60 Foreign Policy Experts Issue Letter Urging NATO Against Advancing Ukraine Membership

Parkinson's Specialist Met With White House At Least 9 Times Since July 2023

How To Copper Ground Shoes Like a Professional

7 In 10 Voters Think Biden Is Too Old To Be President

Parkinson's Specialist Met With White House At Least 9 Times Since July 2023

Its time to have a discussion about how black people are destroying Carnival Cruise Line

Biden's Campaign Announces $50M Media Blitz In Battleground States Amid Health Questions

Paul Joseph Watson

Putin Responds to Trump Wanting to End the War in Ukraine! | Buddy Brown


Editorial
See other Editorial Articles

Title: Mike Rivero: the time has come to replace the government
Source: [None]
URL Source: http://whatreallyhappened.com/
Published: Mar 26, 2010
Author: Mike Rivero
Post Date: 2010-03-26 11:33:52 by Horse
Keywords: None
Views: 1182
Comments: 97

This government cannot get out of the financial mess it has created, in part because they gave away the high technology manufacturing that was the golden goose of our economy to foreign countries. Then, in a relentless capitulation to corporate donors, the financial markets were turned into an open air casino where long-term investment growth was eschewed for short term speculative manipulations.

In short the Federal Government could not have screwed up this economy more if they had intended to(and many think it was). Being a government no longer of the people, but of lawyers and bookkeepers, every solution they can think of it s new law or a new accounting trick, neither of which can address the real problems of loss of productivity. Toss in the crumbling of America's infrastructure on which production and transport of product depends and America has collapsed as an industrial power.

The Hopi people have a word, Koyaanisqatsi, which means life out of balance, crazy times, and more to the point, a state of life that demands immediate change. We are there. It is time for a change.

Unless there is a sudden and dramatic change in direction this nation is doomed. As a nation, we cannot afford to continue the wars we are now mired in. As a nation, we lack the manufacturing might to survive a new global war. As a nation we can no longer afford to support the oligarchs of Wall Street, Washington, and Tel Aviv, while the very structure of our nation crumbles into rubble and corrosion. As a nation we cannot allow ourselves to be looted with more hoaxes like human-caused global warming, or health care on the pay-now-wait-years-to-use system.

Above all we cannot afford the taxes we have now, let alone the higher taxes planned by the government. Taxes not only sap the wealth of the people, taxes sap the enthusiasm and energy of the people, who would be willing to work hard to rebuild the nation but balk at ever higher loads of work the benefits of which seem to flow everywhere but where it is needed. The embassies get million-dollar foreign crystal but our roads are crumbling. The President is shopping for a new Air Force 1 but half the schools are closed. The number of billionaires in the US doubled last near along with the number of homeless. The United States can send Israel billions of dollars in weapons but cannot keep its own people fed. It is one thing to get the people to work hard to build their own communities. It is unrealistic to demand that hard work to give away that wealth far over the horizon, no matter how many guns you point at them. This has been tried more times than can be counted throughout history and it always ends badly. Insanity is repeating the same behavior over and over again and expecting a different outcome.

Something has gone very wrong with this government. I no longer think it can be repaired. I did for the first 12 years I ran this website. But now I have come to a different conclusion about this government. It is hopelessly mired in its own greed and short-sightedness. It is broken and corrupted beyond salvage and the time has come to consider a replacement.

Post Comment   Private Reply   Ignore Thread  


TopPage UpFull ThreadPage DownBottom/Latest

Comments (1-42) not displayed.
      .
      .
      .

#43. To: PSUSA (#42)

I miss gardening.

it's pretty much a miracle, watching food come up out of the ground.

it helps to be stoned, to appreciate the miraculousness of it.

groundresonance  posted on  2010-03-26   15:07:23 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#44. To: Critter (#34)

I just want to ensure a continual supply [of oil].

The supply of oil is limited. And while worldwide demand is rising your wish is impossible.

"Yes they have been experimenting on us for decades. The Chemtrails are just one aspect." -- Original_Intent, circa 2010-03-14 21:00:46 ET

buckeroo  posted on  2010-03-26   15:11:46 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#45. To: groundresonance (#41) (Edited)

I think the Rothschilds could probably trace their roots back to Cain, and I for one, do not believe in "peak oil"...see "Peak Oil a Zionist Myth" and "Yisraelim Prepare to Invade One True Zion" by Joe Vialls. The latter under the title "Nassi 3" at samliquidation.com . Furthermore, I have read of a couple of guys who built UFO type vehicles according to Nikola Tesla's anti-gravity discoveries which were powered by the energy given off themselves. Don't ask me to explain it; I don't understand it. I seem to remember something about it at the greyfalcon site. It's a deep dark secret, because if the world knew about it, and all the other free energy mechanisms out there, there would be no need to wage fake terrorism to justify wars to steal other nations' oil in order TO CONTROL people.

"...as long as there..remain active enemies of the Christian church, we may hope to become Master of the World...the future Jewish King will never reign in the world before Christianity is overthrown - B'nai B'rith speech http://www.biblebelievers.org.au/luther.htm / http://bible.cc/psalms/83-4.htm

AllTheKings'HorsesWontDoIt  posted on  2010-03-26   15:30:26 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#46. To: AllTheKings'HorsesWontDoIt (#45) (Edited)

I for one, do not believe in "peak oil"

the only thing i'm going on is the figures from the reporting agencies, and the price of oil... plus, i spose, the efforts to obscure the fact that oil production peaked, and the role peak oil would play as a motive to stage 9/11.

oil peaking is about the only thing that makes sense in the overall situation.

groundresonance  posted on  2010-03-26   15:42:07 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#47. To: christine, Horse (#2)

I no longer think it can be repaired. I did for the first 12 years I ran this website. But now I have come to a different conclusion about this government. It is hopelessly mired in its own greed and short-sightedness. It is broken and corrupted beyond salvage

Paul Craig Robert's conclusion too.

Bob Chapman's as well.

TwentyTwelve  posted on  2010-03-26   16:47:51 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#48. To: Horse (#0)

deleted

The relationship between morality and liberty is a directly proportional one.

"You've got to put right and wrong above legal and illegal. Because when tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty; and it is not rebellion at all, it is submission to the higher law that our government is in rebellion to. We're not the rebels, they're the rebels."

Eric Stratton  posted on  2010-03-26   17:04:51 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#49. To: christine (#2)

deleted

The relationship between morality and liberty is a directly proportional one.

"You've got to put right and wrong above legal and illegal. Because when tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty; and it is not rebellion at all, it is submission to the higher law that our government is in rebellion to. We're not the rebels, they're the rebels."

Eric Stratton  posted on  2010-03-26   17:19:23 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#50. To: Original_Intent (#17)

deleted

The relationship between morality and liberty is a directly proportional one.

"You've got to put right and wrong above legal and illegal. Because when tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty; and it is not rebellion at all, it is submission to the higher law that our government is in rebellion to. We're not the rebels, they're the rebels."

Eric Stratton  posted on  2010-03-26   17:37:44 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#51. To: Original_Intent (#24)

deleted

The relationship between morality and liberty is a directly proportional one.

"You've got to put right and wrong above legal and illegal. Because when tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty; and it is not rebellion at all, it is submission to the higher law that our government is in rebellion to. We're not the rebels, they're the rebels."

Eric Stratton  posted on  2010-03-26   17:39:50 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#52. To: Critter (#35)

deleted

The relationship between morality and liberty is a directly proportional one.

"You've got to put right and wrong above legal and illegal. Because when tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty; and it is not rebellion at all, it is submission to the higher law that our government is in rebellion to. We're not the rebels, they're the rebels."

Eric Stratton  posted on  2010-03-26   17:41:22 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#53. To: PSUSA (#42)

deleted

The relationship between morality and liberty is a directly proportional one.

"You've got to put right and wrong above legal and illegal. Because when tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty; and it is not rebellion at all, it is submission to the higher law that our government is in rebellion to. We're not the rebels, they're the rebels."

Eric Stratton  posted on  2010-03-26   17:43:00 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#54. To: buckeroo (#44)

deleted

The relationship between morality and liberty is a directly proportional one.

"You've got to put right and wrong above legal and illegal. Because when tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty; and it is not rebellion at all, it is submission to the higher law that our government is in rebellion to. We're not the rebels, they're the rebels."

Eric Stratton  posted on  2010-03-26   17:43:37 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#55. To: AllTheKings'HorsesWontDoIt (#45)

deleted

The relationship between morality and liberty is a directly proportional one.

"You've got to put right and wrong above legal and illegal. Because when tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty; and it is not rebellion at all, it is submission to the higher law that our government is in rebellion to. We're not the rebels, they're the rebels."

Eric Stratton  posted on  2010-03-26   17:44:10 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#56. To: Eric Stratton (#54)

buckeroo: The supply of oil is limited.

Eric Stratton: Bullshit.

World Crude Oil Production May Peak a Decade Earlier Than Some Predict

ScienceDaily (Mar. 11, 2010) — In a finding that may speed efforts to conserve oil and intensify the search for alternative fuel sources, scientists in Kuwait predict that world conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014 -- almost a decade earlier than some other predictions. Their study is in ACS' Energy & Fuels.

Ibrahim Nashawi and colleagues point out that rapid growth in global oil consumption has sparked a growing interest in predicting "peak oil" -- the point where oil production reaches a maximum and then declines. Scientists have developed several models to forecast this point, and some put the date at 2020 or later. One of the most famous forecast models, called the Hubbert model, accurately predicted that oil production would peak in the United States in 1970. The model has since gained in popularity and has been used to forecast oil production worldwide. However, recent studies show that the model is insufficient to account for more complex oil production cycles of some countries. Those cycles can be heavily influenced by technology changes, politics, and other factors, the scientists say.

The new study describe development of a new version of the Hubbert model that accounts for these individual production trends to provide a more realistic and accurate oil production forecast. Using the new model, the scientists evaluated the oil production trends of 47 major oil-producing countries, which supply most of the world's conventional crude oil. They estimated that worldwide conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014, years earlier than anticipated. The scientists also showed that the world's oil reserves are being depleted at a rate of 2.1 percent a year. The new model could help inform energy-related decisions and public policy debate, they suggest.

There are other models based on fact, that show peak oil occurred 8-10 years ago.

"Yes they have been experimenting on us for decades. The Chemtrails are just one aspect." -- Original_Intent, circa 2010-03-14 21:00:46 ET

buckeroo  posted on  2010-03-26   18:04:49 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#57. To: buckeroo (#56)

deleted

The relationship between morality and liberty is a directly proportional one.

"You've got to put right and wrong above legal and illegal. Because when tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty; and it is not rebellion at all, it is submission to the higher law that our government is in rebellion to. We're not the rebels, they're the rebels."

Eric Stratton  posted on  2010-03-26   18:07:49 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#58. To: groundresonance (#46)

the only thing i'm going on is the figures from the reporting agencies, and the price of oil... plus, i spose, the efforts to obscure the fact that oil production peaked, and the role peak oil would play as a motive to stage 9/11.

oil peaking is about the only thing that makes sense in the overall situation.

If I remember correctly in "Nassi 3", it was about controlling that oil in order to attack America. After America is brought to heel, or I suppose that is how their thinking goes, and the populations are culled, I imagine it will be safe to trot out all the free energy technologies they have killed people to suppress.

"...as long as there..remain active enemies of the Christian church, we may hope to become Master of the World...the future Jewish King will never reign in the world before Christianity is overthrown - B'nai B'rith speech http://www.biblebelievers.org.au/luther.htm / http://bible.cc/psalms/83-4.htm

AllTheKings'HorsesWontDoIt  posted on  2010-03-26   18:08:22 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#59. To: Eric Stratton (#57)

The bottom line is that it is not a fossil fuel, is not limited, is constantly being reproduced by the earth, and is nowhere near in danger of running out.

If you notice this picture, you will see that oil rigs are drilling further from the shore and deeper over time. If your viewpoint were correct, there wouldn't be a need for this type of continuous research and development, would there?

"Yes they have been experimenting on us for decades. The Chemtrails are just one aspect." -- Original_Intent, circa 2010-03-14 21:00:46 ET

buckeroo  posted on  2010-03-26   18:12:56 ET  (1 image) Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#60. To: buckeroo (#59)

deleted

The relationship between morality and liberty is a directly proportional one.

"You've got to put right and wrong above legal and illegal. Because when tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty; and it is not rebellion at all, it is submission to the higher law that our government is in rebellion to. We're not the rebels, they're the rebels."

Eric Stratton  posted on  2010-03-26   18:19:05 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#61. To: Eric Stratton (#60)

I thot it damned original, if you want to buy a rig.

Cynicom  posted on  2010-03-26   18:21:26 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#62. To: buckeroo (#59)

deleted

The relationship between morality and liberty is a directly proportional one.

"You've got to put right and wrong above legal and illegal. Because when tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty; and it is not rebellion at all, it is submission to the higher law that our government is in rebellion to. We're not the rebels, they're the rebels."

Eric Stratton  posted on  2010-03-26   18:23:24 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#63. To: Cynicom (#61)

deleted

The relationship between morality and liberty is a directly proportional one.

"You've got to put right and wrong above legal and illegal. Because when tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty; and it is not rebellion at all, it is submission to the higher law that our government is in rebellion to. We're not the rebels, they're the rebels."

Eric Stratton  posted on  2010-03-26   18:24:52 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#64. To: Eric Stratton (#60)

But offshore drilling is becoming deeper and further from the shorelines, adding costs to produce a barrel of oil. You didn't answer my earlier question..... why?

So, here is the reason: the world is using more oil than can be explored/mined. That is proof positive that "peak oil" has either happened or is happening. Otherwise, the costs and therefore the prices would fall.

"Yes they have been experimenting on us for decades. The Chemtrails are just one aspect." -- Original_Intent, circa 2010-03-14 21:00:46 ET

buckeroo  posted on  2010-03-26   18:26:13 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#65. To: All (#61)

We had peak natural gas, thirty years ago.

Sell more heating oil.

Now the northeast is awash with natural gas, wells by the hundreds, every one a winner and we no longer buy LNG from the ME.

The best estimates say the field is good for at LEAST 75 years, enough to supply the entire north east.

And in Alaska, the companies are forced to pump gas back into the ground, but we cannot build a pipeline to the lower forty eight, the caribou might not like it.

Cynicom  posted on  2010-03-26   18:26:13 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#66. To: Eric Stratton (#62)

And BTW, if there is a "shortage," it will result from increased demand, not from diminishing availabilities.

But both pressures are occurring simultaneously leading to the depletion of any "reserves."

"Yes they have been experimenting on us for decades. The Chemtrails are just one aspect." -- Original_Intent, circa 2010-03-14 21:00:46 ET

buckeroo  posted on  2010-03-26   18:28:02 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#67. To: PSUSA, Horse (#1)

They don't follow the Constitution we have, how would a replacement be better?


"With respect to the words general welfare, I have always regarded them as qualified by the detail of powers connected with them. To take them in a literal and unlimited sense would be a metamorphosis of the Constitution into a character which there is a host of proofs was not contemplated by its creators."
James Madison, Letter to James Robertson, April 20, 1831

farmfriend  posted on  2010-03-26   19:47:44 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#68. To: buckeroo (#64)

deleted

The relationship between morality and liberty is a directly proportional one.

"You've got to put right and wrong above legal and illegal. Because when tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty; and it is not rebellion at all, it is submission to the higher law that our government is in rebellion to. We're not the rebels, they're the rebels."

Eric Stratton  posted on  2010-03-26   20:32:27 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#69. To: farmfriend, PSUSA (#67)

They don't follow the Constitution we have, how would a replacement be better?

I would send the illegals home. And I would grant Israeli citizenship and passports to all Jewish Americans who have not renounced Zionism. They and their descendants would not be allowed to vote in American elections or to donate to American politicians. I would also seize all of the assets of the war criminals which would include their media.

The Truth of 911 Shall Set You Free From The Lie

Horse  posted on  2010-03-26   21:04:33 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#70. To: buckeroo (#66)

deleted

The relationship between morality and liberty is a directly proportional one.

"You've got to put right and wrong above legal and illegal. Because when tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty; and it is not rebellion at all, it is submission to the higher law that our government is in rebellion to. We're not the rebels, they're the rebels."

Eric Stratton  posted on  2010-03-26   21:16:48 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#71. To: Eric Stratton (#70)

There's plenty and they keep finding new sources. Technology to drill deep is cheaper today than it was to drill not so deep years ago. In now/then dollars of course.

Read, learn and understand that your perspective is entirely incorrect. I use the US as an example, but peak oil has occurred in other oil producing areas as well.

Can The United States Drill Its Way to Energy Security?

Sunday, 14 December 2008 00:00
Timothy D. Kailing

Those who advocate increased oil and gas drilling generally, and quite reasonably, assume that increased drilling will result in significantly increased production of oil and gas. Drilling is certainly one of the rate-limiting steps to the eventual production of oil and gas. But beyond this crude notion that more is better, the innumerate naïveté of many energy projections is staggering.

In fact, many drilling advocates implicitly assume that the energy gained from increased drilling will be roughly linear: that is, doubling drilling effort is expected to eventually bring something like double the energy resources to market. In reality, the historical data give overwhelming and unequivocal evidence that the energy return on drilling in the United States will certainly be far less than this. For generations now, the energy return on increased drilling has been a quantitative relationship of sharply diminishing returns with increased drilling effort. In fact, for the last several decades, the relationship of drilling effort and energy return has been so unfavorable that there is little evidence that even vastly increased drilling will significantly increase U.S. domestic energy production. This stark fact must be incorporated into any strategic energy planning. To do otherwise is to put hope entirely before experience.

Drilling Activity and Oil and Natural Gas Production: Some Historical Perspective

We can get an overview of the relationship of drilling activity and the energy production of oil and gas by looking at the historical data. The drilling activity numbers are from Baker Hughes Corporation data that tracks active rotary drill rigs in the United States from 1949 to present. Oil and gas production are Energy Information Administration (US Department of Energy) domestic production data.

Simply from inspecting the nearly 60 years of data in Figure 1, five important facts become clear:

1. While there is currently much debate about the possible timing of a global peak in oil production, from a U.S. domestic point of view, peak oil is very old news: US oil production peaked in 1970. This peak has never been exceeded despite the subsequent 38 years of technological improvement, major events like the ramping up of Alaskan North Slope oil production, and the economic incentive of increasing oil prices in recent years.

2. After a similar initial 1970s peak, gas production has positively diverged from oil production, with gas recently setting new records. However, despite price increases and technological innovation, the rate of gas production has been in a near plateau for the last decade. Very recently, there is tantalizing, but as of yet still historically unimpressive, evidence of a recent surge in gas production.

3. Over this large time scale, there is remarkably little correlation at all between drilling activity and oil production. For example, from 1955 to 1970 drilling activity in the US decreased steadily, from over 2500 working rotary rigs all the way down to 1000. Yet during this time oil production increased by over 40% and gas production increased by 100%. In this period, the US domestic oil region was still relatively young, geologically speaking—with large and easily accessible fields readily available—rather than the mature, literally "over the hill", region it is today.

4. The best case one can make for the benefits of increased drilling is during the period from 1971 to 1981 when—spurred by the oil embargo, the huge price increase of oil, and Jimmy Carter’s infamous cardigan—the number of active rotary drill rigs more than quadrupled. This Herculean increase in drilling activity did manage to reverse the decline in US oil production for several years (after a five year delay). Yet, despite the vastly increased drilling effort, oil production at the secondary peak was still below the 1970 peak. In fact, to take the most optimistic assessment of the benefits of drilling, the 300% increase in drilling bought just a 10% increase in oil production from the 1976 intermediate nadir to the secondary 1985 production peak. During this same period, gas production actually continued to fall for several more years.

5. Recently, the benefits of increased drilling in expanding oil production are even more anemic. With US domestic resources increasingly mature, the recent increase of drilling—a three-fold increase from 1999 to 2008—has not only brought no increase in oil production, it has not even stopped the continuing decrease in domestic oil production over the last decade. Gas production, however, has modestly increased over the last twenty years but, viewed macroscopically, this increase has been largely statistically uncorrelated with variation in drilling effort.

The Energy Return on Drilling

Oil has unique strategic importance as a dense, easily moved fuel—particularly essential for fueling modern transportation—and because of this oil deserves particular focus. But energy is, ultimately, fungible (in practice, often at some cost in efficiency). Therefore, for determining the long-term strategic value of increased drilling effort, the paramount functional relationship is the total energy produced from drilling activity in the United States. With gas production measured in equivalent energy units (boe) as a barrel of oil, total energy produced from both gas and oil is a simple sum.

It is obvious from this graph that, for nearly four decades now, the total US energy production from domestic oil and gas has been in steady overall decline. Especially surprising is the fact that the enormous spike in drilling effort in the 1970s and early 1980s had essentially no apparent effect on US energy production. The modest increase in gas production in the last two decades has been more than cancelled out by the decrease in oil production, in energetic terms. To anyone tempted to join a populist chorus of "Drill, baby, drill!" this is an especially sobering graph.

Why is There Essentially No Correlation Between Drilling and Energy Production?

We must be clear: drilling is certainly an essential stage in oil and gas exploration and production. In fact, continued drilling is absolutely essential to continued oil and gas production. For typical wells, production begins to decline soon after pumping begins. The situation is rather like Lewis Carroll’s Red Queen, it takes considerable effort just to stay in the same place, in terms of production. But why, then, is there essentially no apparent energy return on increased drilling in the US historical data in the last half century?

The reason is that in a significantly depleted, "mature" petroleum region like the United States, there are severely diminishing returns on increased drilling effort. Why this is the case is really quite simple: petroleum geologists, apparently, know their business. For a nonrenewable resource, a relationship of severely diminishing returns is exactly the relationship expected if geologists are generally able to prioritize the exploitation of both new and existing reserves. In times of low energy prices, the base rate of drilling is low, but it is concentrated on the best prospects, and so the return on drilling effort is greater. In contrast, when high prices encourage more drilling, they generally open up relatively small, inaccessible, and otherwise marginal reserves and, because of this, increased drilling has remarkably little effect on the regional production numbers. This means that, for a significantly depleted region like the United States, increased drilling has very little impact at all on the strategic energy picture.

Quantitative Analysis of the Diminishing Energy Return of Increased Drilling Effort

We can analyze US oil and gas drilling and subsequent energy production more closely and quantitatively by graphing the relationship of the number of working drill rigs in a year, and the domestic energy production from oil and gas per rig.

In this analysis, a five year time delay to account for the time from drilling activity to resulting production is used. Oil and gas are not produced immediately from new wells. The delay from drilling to production ranges from a very short delay, for production-expansion wells from known fields, to a very long delay, for exploration wells in inaccessible and unexplored petroleum regions. The choice of a five year delay is empirically driven: five years is the best fit delay from the data on drilling and oil production for the US (there is actually no macroscopic relationship apparent at all in the data for US gas production). The graphs therefore depict the relationship between drilling at time t (year 2000 for example) and the energy production at time t+5 (year 2005 for example).

Figure 3. The relationship of drilling effort (average number of active US rotary rigs) and total energy production from domestic oil and gas five years subsequent.

Figure 3. The relationship of drilling effort (average number of active US rotary rigs) and total energy production from domestic oil and gas five years subsequent.

Figure 3 is quite an extraordinary graph—and a sobering one. Unlike the loose overall historical relationship between domestic drilling and production, there is quite a tight relationship between drilling activity and subsequent oil and gas energy production per rig. The relationship, however, is precisely the last one you would want if you hope that drilling will solve the United States’ energy problems. The relationship shows that more active drill rig translates quantitatively into less energy per rig. Even worse, as the red data and fitted curve show, this law of diminishing returns has become, if anything, statistically tighter during the increase in drilling over the 15 years.

The relationship is a power law, and the negative exponent characterizes the diminishing returns on increased drilling effort. The fact that the exponent is less than negative one indicates that the returns on increased drilling are severely diminishing. The simplicity of the relationship is easier to see on a logarithmic graph, which "takes all the curves out" of a power relationship like this, and depicts it in linear form (Figure 4).

Figure 4. The logarithmically-transformed (log base 10) relationship of drilling effort and total energy producction from domestic oil and gas five years subsequent. The relationship is a power law and and shows severely diminishing returns on increased drilling effort.

Figure 4. The logarithmically-transformed (log base 10) relationship of drilling effort and total energy producction from domestic oil and gas five years subsequent. The relationship is a power law and and shows severely diminishing returns on increased drilling effort.

These two graphs (Figures 3 and 4) make plain the severely diminishing returns on increased drilling effort in the United States. Any attempt to determine the strategic effects of increased drilling must take these relationships into account. These facts are not at all congenial for anyone who hopes that the US can drill its way to energy independence. However, for strategic policy making, the fundamental simplicity and the considerable statistical strength of the diminishing return relationship makes quantitative prediction of energy production from drilling quite robust and tractable, macroscopically.

The Optimist’s View - Could We Be In a New Era?

From the historical data, there is essentially zero evidence to suggest that even a very large increase in domestic drilling will bring substantially increased energy returns. The United States is unlikely to ever gain enough new domestic energy supplies from ramping up drilling to significantly change its dependence on imported energy; not at current rates of consumption.

But there is an optimistic view that, to play devil’s advocate, is at least worth characterizing. This optimistic view does, however, depend on the usually unjustified assumption that we are in a new era, where previous constraints no longer apply. This "new era" argument rests on the notion that technological advances like widespread horizontal (and other directional) drilling, deepwater gas production techniques, and other advances in oil and gas recovery—all of which can make formerly uneconomic gas reserves profitably recoverable—have substantially changed the rules of the game. There is a cultural element to this putative "new era" in the oil patch. The exploration and production industry may have finally stopped viewing gas as the ugly stepsister of oil. There has been a long preference in the industry for oil over gas. In fact, for a long time gas was a sign of disappointment: it was mostly a worthless waste product to be flared off, or a sign that you had drilled in the wrong place, outside the geological "oil window." Natural gas is a less energy-dense product, and it requires a lot of expensive plumbing to collect it, move it around, and bring it to market. The necessary infrastructure to market gas, and the economies of scale that go along with this, mean that gas is especially unappealing for the smaller and more entrepreneurial operations that respond the quickest to price increases. This may be why the 1980s drilling spike led to a real secondary peak in oil production which was real, if anemic, but at the same time gas production actually languished. The drilling spike of the early 1980s seems to have been diversionary in an important sense: it prompted a temporary interruption in the gradual shift from oil to gas that was already occurring in the US. For a short time, the good old days in the oil patch were back, and the active pursuit of gas took the backseat while high prices lasted. There is a social, even psychological, aspect to this as well: saying "I’m a oil man," has a different ring to it than saying "I’m a gas man," although, as gas continues to displace oil in importance domestically, that may certainly change.

So part of the "new era" argument rests on the idea that the US oil and gas industry realizes things have really changed, and has now appropriately focused much of current drilling and infrastructure development squarely on natural gas. With technological improvements like horizontal drilling and coalfield gas recovery, one can optimistically argue that a new peak in energy resources from the drill bit may be in the offing. Such arguments have been made before, but it is not impossible a priori that such a "new era" might this time be real. The truth will be known in the next 2-3 years. If the slight increase in domestic energy production from gas and oil in 2007 and 2008 turns into a substantial and sustained increase in total energy supplies, it will mean that such a new era is real. However, even if this unlikely and unprecedented possibility becomes a reality, the United States would do well to learn from its experience with oil. Domestic production of oil peaked nearly 40 years ago, and there is virtually no chance of ever again matching 1970 levels of production, much less exceeding them. In the unlikely event that a sustained secondary gas production peak ensues, the US would be wise to remember that this peak will be finite, and to consider allocating a significant portion of this energy towards the development of truly sustainable domestic energy supplies.

Conclusions

The macro relationship of drilling and energy production is quite clear, and can be summarized in three main points:

1. There is very little chance that even a great increase in drilling will significantly increase US domestic oil production. Given the extraordinary strategic and economic importance of oil, this a critically important point.

2. There is more hope for natural gas, with production likely to continue increasing for some time. However, unless you are a true believer that we are in a completely "new era", the statistical relationship of diminishing returns on increased drilling activity is likely to also sharply constrain the gains possible in the domestic production of gas. Whatever your optimism level regarding drilling, it is a robust conclusion that any significant increase in domestic energy supplies from drilling—or perhaps, more realistically, any deceleration of the rate of decline of domestic energy supplies from oil and gas that we have seen for nearly four decades—is likely to be dominated by the production of natural gas, far more than oil.

3. The reason for the diminishing returns on drilling effort is that the geologists know their business. Historically, the overall energy we gain from domestic drilling has shown essentially no response to increased drilling effort. This is because periods of high drilling activity generally open only marginal resources that do surprisingly little to increase overall national production.

These three points, which follow from a macroscopic look at drilling and production data, are important to keep in mind—for government policy makers, corporations, and investors—when deciding how to allocate capital for future energy needs.

Epilogue: The Energy Debt—Game Theoretic Considerations of Depleting Nonrenewable Resources

The fact that increased drilling is unlikely to substantially change the strategic picture of domestic energy production in the United States has an important implication. It means that more weight must be given to the strategic costs of ramping up the exploitation of the remaining US resources. There is a tradeoff in oil and gas production that, before now, has too often been ignored. The focus is always on the benefit of increased drilling—at this point at best a small increase in domestic energy production—but there is an unavoidable, associated future strategic cost to the exploitation of any nonrenewable resource. This future strategic cost is often neglected in policy considerations. With nonrenewable resources like oil and gas, being more "energy independent" now necessarily implies increasing energy dependence at some point in the future. In a region as geologically "mature" as the United States, with only a very small fraction of the world’s remaining petroleum reserves, increasing current production will also decrease the future strategic options for US energy policy. If this game is played without foresight, it will only hasten the day when oil-rich regimes in the Middle East are the only players at the table with any chips left. Because of the extreme short-sightedness of most political considerations, this inescapable tradeoff is all too often completely ignored strategically. By focusing on the short term benefits of nonrenewable resource exploitation, while neglecting the future costs of depletion, a nation engages in a form of deficit spending. Like other national debts, the energy debt can be overlooked, ignored, and denied, even for generations, but the account will eventually be settled.

Timothy D. Kailing is a quantitative analyst at Elliptical Research

"Yes they have been experimenting on us for decades. The Chemtrails are just one aspect." -- Original_Intent, circa 2010-03-14 21:00:46 ET

buckeroo  posted on  2010-03-26   22:01:26 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#72. To: buckeroo (#71)

deleted

The relationship between morality and liberty is a directly proportional one.

"You've got to put right and wrong above legal and illegal. Because when tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty; and it is not rebellion at all, it is submission to the higher law that our government is in rebellion to. We're not the rebels, they're the rebels."

Eric Stratton  posted on  2010-03-26   22:04:58 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#73. To: Eric Stratton (#72)

This isn't one of the more pressing issues of the day.

WHOA there partner! Peak oil is beyond a doubt the MOST important issue confronting mankind right here and now.

Let me remind you that as oil supplies dwindle the cost goes up. Petroleum based products from lipstick to tires and modern-day crop pesticides to plastics and your fine home computer are a function of those costs.

You entire life is based around petroleum based products. Why in the world do you think America regards the ME as national security? America has 5% of the world's population base yet Americans consumer about 25% of the world's oil supply.

It is indeed one of the most pressing issues you will ever see.

"Yes they have been experimenting on us for decades. The Chemtrails are just one aspect." -- Original_Intent, circa 2010-03-14 21:00:46 ET

buckeroo  posted on  2010-03-26   22:17:40 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#74. To: buckeroo (#73)

deleted

The relationship between morality and liberty is a directly proportional one.

"You've got to put right and wrong above legal and illegal. Because when tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty; and it is not rebellion at all, it is submission to the higher law that our government is in rebellion to. We're not the rebels, they're the rebels."

Eric Stratton  posted on  2010-03-26   23:00:33 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#75. To: buckeroo (#73)

deleted

The relationship between morality and liberty is a directly proportional one.

"You've got to put right and wrong above legal and illegal. Because when tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty; and it is not rebellion at all, it is submission to the higher law that our government is in rebellion to. We're not the rebels, they're the rebels."

Eric Stratton  posted on  2010-03-26   23:01:49 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#76. To: Eric Stratton (#75)

groundresonance  posted on  2010-03-27   0:22:18 ET  (1 image) Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#77. To: groundresonance, Eric Stratton (#76)

Oil is unlikely made from fossils, is likely abiotic and sustainable.


“It has been said, 'time heals all wounds.' I do not agree. The wounds remain. In time, the mind, protecting its sanity, covers them with scar tissue and the pain lessens, but it is never gone.” ~ Rose F. Kennedy

wudidiz  posted on  2010-03-27   0:29:59 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#78. To: Eric Stratton (#50)

Pretty good post.

Not sure what they're going to do with all of the dead bodies and who's going to dispose of them, I'm sure they'll come up with some mechanism. But at some point re: that theory people will catch on that their chances are far better to be among the eliminated, regardless of who they are, and well, I would suggest terminal issues for the implementers at that point.

Thanks - and somebody beat me to "Soylent Green". Those who follow this more closely than I are suggesting that most likely it will be a succession of controlled Bioweapon releases. They won't take everyone they intend to eliminate all at once. However, it will likely be by more than one means. Obamacare® is one such avenue. It does not take 2700 pages to write the kind of National Hellthcare Scheme which they have delivered. Most of the bill is about control and eugenics. Through increased mortality and killing off all the useless old folks they stand to eliminate a good chunk there. Most of the soldiers coming back from the Middle East have been exposed to levels of Depleted Uranium that will kill them off within 20 or 30 years. Last I knew, a couple of years ago, Veterans of Desert Storm were dropping like flies - something over 500,000 were suffering from a variety of ailments which, again from what I've read, are traceable to DU exposure and/or chemical weapons exposure. The final kill off is probably intended as a "Great Plague".

If the darkness does not fall and we manage to escape their plans for us I would rather see them in a real honest to God Chain Gang for the rest of their unnatural lives. Hangin's too good fer'em. Although staked out in the desert with wet rawhide thongs would be an acceptable alternative. But I would rather see them spend the rest of their lives working 12 on 12 off with a spartan diet of beans, rice, bread, and water. The beans and rice is only because I want them to remain healthy enough to put in their 12 hours a day of shoveling shit or the equivalent thereof.

"One of the least understood strategies of the world revolution now moving rapidly toward its goal is the use of mind control as a major means of obtaining the consent of the people who will be subjects of the New World Order." K.M. Heaton, The National Educator

Original_Intent  posted on  2010-03-27   0:35:20 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#79. To: groundresonance, Eric Stratton (#76)

Horse manure. More disinformation.

Twenty-Five Ways To Suppress Truth: The Rules of Disinformation

Rule 22. Manufacture a new truth. Create your own expert(s), group(s), author(s), leader(s) or influence existing ones willing to forge new ground via scientific, investigative, or social research or testimony which concludes favorably. In this way, if you must actually address issues, you can do so authoritatively.

Nice Spin. It covers two items at once with the same disinformation.

We conflate the housing bubble with the contrived oil shortage and play one off against the other. Neato. Not true but neat.

The problem is that "Peak Oil" is as big of a fraud as the housing bubble and 911.

Oil is a self renewing resource which they have to keep a "cap" on (like the oil field at Gulf Island Alaska which is rumored to be as large or larger than the Saudi Reserves).

"One of the least understood strategies of the world revolution now moving rapidly toward its goal is the use of mind control as a major means of obtaining the consent of the people who will be subjects of the New World Order." K.M. Heaton, The National Educator

Original_Intent  posted on  2010-03-27   0:44:29 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#80. To: groundresonance, wudidiz, Original_Intent, All (#76) (Edited)

This whole oil thing was just a profit machine for the Rockefellars. We didn't HAVE to use fossil oil to power our cars, and we didn't need fossil oil to manufacture plastics.

HEMP was the leading source of oil prior to fossil oil being discovered on land owned by the Rockefellars. And THAT is why HEMP is illegal, not just because its flower can make people high, but because Rockefellar wanted to cash in on what he owned, and Dupont found a way to manufacture plastics from fossil oil.

Henry Ford had used plastics made from HEMP on his first cars.

HEMP is easy and cheap to cultivate, not much of a profit in that for the elite.


"The real deal is this: the ‘royalty’ controlling the court, the ones with the power, the ones with the ability to make a difference, with the ability to change our course, the ones who will live in infamy if we pass the tipping points, are the captains of industry, CEOs in fossil fuel companies such as EXXON/Mobil, automobile manufacturers, utilities, all of the leaders who have placed short-term profit above the fate of the planet and the well-being of our children." - James Hansen

FormerLurker  posted on  2010-03-27   0:46:13 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#81. To: Original_Intent (#79) (Edited)

judging from the first four returns on this google image search, people are starting to connect the dots: peak oil, global warming, israel, israeli control of america, and 9/11.

Results 1 - 21 of about 1,570,000 for oil production price drills

groundresonance  posted on  2010-03-27   0:54:14 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#82. To: wudidiz (#77)

deleted

The relationship between morality and liberty is a directly proportional one.

"You've got to put right and wrong above legal and illegal. Because when tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty; and it is not rebellion at all, it is submission to the higher law that our government is in rebellion to. We're not the rebels, they're the rebels."

Eric Stratton  posted on  2010-03-27   0:58:01 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#83. To: groundresonance, Original_Intent, FormerLurker (#81)

Results 1 - 21 of about 1,570,000 for oil production price drills

Results 1 - 10 of about 52,800,000 for you're full of shit. (0.22 seconds)


“It has been said, 'time heals all wounds.' I do not agree. The wounds remain. In time, the mind, protecting its sanity, covers them with scar tissue and the pain lessens, but it is never gone.” ~ Rose F. Kennedy

wudidiz  posted on  2010-03-27   0:58:12 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  



      .
      .
      .

Comments (84 - 97) not displayed.

TopPage UpFull ThreadPage DownBottom/Latest


[Home]  [Headlines]  [Latest Articles]  [Latest Comments]  [Post]  [Sign-in]  [Mail]  [Setup]  [Help]  [Register]