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Title: (Hurricane) Rita
Source:
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URL Source: http://none
Published: Sep 19, 2005
Author: scooter
Post Date: 2005-09-19 18:21:08 by scooter
Keywords: (Hurricane), Rita
Views: 177
Comments: 9
Folks, keep a close eye on very soon to be Hurricane Rita. I just finished an email to Christine debating on whether or not to go ahead and post my thoughts on the matter. My primary source for weather information comes from the blogs of Dr Jeff Masters and Steve Gregory of Weather Underground. Sometime within the next couple days, tonight, tomorrow or Wednesday (at the latest), it may be in folks' best interest to keep their cars fully gassed along with a few spare containers of gas full as well while (most) prices have come back to pre-Katrina levels (2.49 where I live). I say this in anticipation of perhaps a major gas hike in the wake of Hurricane Rita by this weekend. This is the part I debated posting. It does pay to be forewarned and prepared. I just did not want to be the cause of any worry, panic, confusion, etc.... Not to think I have that much effect on things, but you never know. Computer models (the 5 major ones) started the weekend by suggesting Mexico up to Galveston. Since then, with each passing model run the track has shifted north and then east with Galveston now being the bullseye. Dr Masters is thinking LA at this time. By his own admission, these predicitons have a margin of error of 270 miles either side, especially this far out. So the Texas/Mexico border to the Florida/Bama border need to be on guard. Intenisty forecasts are horrible by virtually every forecasters admission. The current thinking is that there is nothing keeping Rita from becoming a major Hurricane (CAT3 with at least 111mph winds). Yes, a strike on New Orleans is possible. As is a strike including MS and AL- two other areas that do not need to see a hurricane. Galvestion is also way overdue for a major hurricane to strike. But we are still a long way from even thinking about that. What I am concerned about, is this will used as another justification to raise gas prices significantly in the short term (damage or no). And that possibility is out there and very real. So, get ready and prepared, just in case. If nothing happens, you have a lengthy supply of gas for your lawnmower. Also pray for those in the Keys, Cuba and Bahamas as they are going to be on the receiving end of anywhere from Tropical Storm conditions (Bahamas, Cuba, ?S Florida?) up to a CAT2 Hurricane (Keys, ?S Florida?) starting tomorrow.
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#2. To: scooter (#0)
I've been watching it all day. http://www.weatherunderground.com is a good source. It's a slow moving storm that looks like it's going to sit over the warm waters of the gulf and grow. I was reading today about how damaging it could be if it hit Houston. Even more oil facilities off line. If the storm doesn't veer north soon this could be very serious.
The very worst possible scenario would be for a hit on the Houston/Galveston region. Refinery, chem plants and density of population that live at basically "sea level". Another hit on NOLA may be the best hope, it is essentially evacuated and already broken. Another 100,000 homes destroyed due to a Houston hit? That would surely break the "camel's back". BTW, the Mayor of Galveston has just called for voluntary evacs...
A test of the Galveston seawall.
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#5. To: crack monkey (#2)
I was reading today about how damaging it could be if it hit Houston.
#7. To: Brian S (#5)
#8. To: all (#7)
You can just about discount the NOGAPS (light blue line) model since it was earlier today. Steve Gregory posted an update recently where he said the models have shifted back to the west and may have stabilized, centering on Galveston. This is shown below. Still, this is Friday-Saturday we are talking about and much can change between now and then. 
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