Exit Polls: Unprecedented White Flight from Democrats
By David Paul Kuhn Democrats performed worse with whites on Tuesday than in any other congressional election since the Second World War.
Democrats' white problems stretch back nearly a half-century. Political white flight changed course with the implosion of George W. Bush's presidency, the Republican Party and the economy in September 2008.
Today, it's almost as if none of that ever came to pass. Democrats' bad old days are back, and in an especially bad way.
Republicans won whites in Tuesday's national House vote by a 22-percentage point margin (60 to 38 percent) according to exit polls. In 2006, Republicans won whites by a mere 4 points. Whites shifted at three-fold the rate of Hispanics between the two midterms, while the black vote remained steady. Democrats faired even worse than in 1994, when Republicans won whites by 16 points (58 to 42 percent) and with them, a landslide.
Now comes a House landslide unseen since 1938. Presidents are the ghost candidates of midterms. In fact, more voters said Obama was a factor in their vote than said Bush was a factor four years ago.
In this vein, Democrats' problems with whites reflect whites' problems with Obama. Whites' support for Democrats in 2010 roughly matches the president's standing prior to the September 2008 crash. Before the crash, Obama polled like earlier Democratic nominees with whites. After the crash, Obama earned the support of more white men than any other Democrat since 1976. He also improved with white women, winning a traditional share for Democrats.
Those gains are gone. Obama's approval rating with whites has declined from the low 60s (week one) to the high 30s (this week).
We will hear charges of racism. But independent whites who voted for Obama have not suddenly realized he's black. Many independents were willing to gamble on Democrats. Their support for Republicans was spent. But Democrats misinterpreted the gamble for an investment. And the Democratic House broke. This is not the first president to experience buyer's remorse.
The recession was the dominant factor for voters this year. But the recession cannot be separated from Obama's agenda. It's said that governing is choosing. Obama's priorities were not the majority's priorities, especially not whites. Most whites have favored a smaller government over a bigger government for decades. Obama's agenda heralded the return of big government, or active-state liberalism. He gave the boldest liberal push since the Great Society.
But Democratic leaders, and much of the "professional left," ignored history. In fact, they ignored the present. I wrote an essay at the close of 2008 illustrating why Democrats' historic problems with whites endured, why Obama's election was more chance than change, warning that the past has a way of catching up with progressives.
The past has caught up. Democrats chose legislation on healthcare and climate change over major jobs initiatives. They chose LBJ over FDR. By the time Democrats tried to move to jobs, whites had already moved on. Yesterday, Democrats lax focus on jobs created many new Republican jobs (in politics).
Lyndon Johnson's domestic programs lost whites support in polls by 1966, and with them the majority. Obama has proceeded like Johnson and received a like rebuke. Only about a third of white men and white women approved of Obama's signature domestic legislation, healthcare, at the time of its passage. Whites similarly opposed the stimulus. It's no accident that over the summer of 2009, when healthcare dominated the debate, Obama first lost the majority of whites and independents.
The keyword is "lost." Voters equally disapprove of both parties. Democrats lost whites. Republicans did not win them. This election was not a vote for Republicans anymore than 2006 was a vote for Democrats. We just witnessed an historic no confidence vote.
Those lost are not simply "soccer moms" or "NASCAR dads." Only 35 percent of white men voted for Democrats compared to 40 percent of white women. That marks a 9-point Democratic loss with both blocs since 2006. Democrats performed especially poorly with white women compared to past House elections-- 6 points worse than in 1994. In post-war congressional elections, 2010 signifies Democrats' worst showing with white women and the floor of Democrats' standing with white men.
Democrats also performed slightly worse with white independents than in any House contest since at least the Reagan era. Same story with college and non-college educated whites, as well as white seniors. The losses threaded the suburbs, small towns and rural areas. This was not a wave isolated to any swing vote trope or slice of whites.
This was broad white flight. And it crossed a symbolic threshold. Among whites, for the first time in post-war congressional elections, Republicans hit the 60-point level of support and Democrats fell below the 40-point mark.
Obama will not easily win these voters back. Whites constitute a smaller share of the electorate than in decades past. And their influence is greater in midterms than White House contests. Yet Ohio captures the presidential problem. The GOP swept every contest in the mega swing state. Obama cannot win back Ohio without winning back whites.
Midterm landslides do not consistently telegraph presidential outcomes. It did not for Clinton's Democrats in 1994. It did for Johnson's Democrats in 1966.
Democrats' white problems today can be partly traced back to the politics of 1966. One labor report following the 1966 midterm warned Democrats that, "The repudiation of the Democratic Party reached deeply into the political structure." The analysis alerted liberal leaders to a "white backlash" against Democrats from Northern blue-collar and middle-income areas to the South. And with civil rights, Vietnam, fissures between white and blue collar Democrats, divisions over crime, defense, culture and the role of government, white FDR Democrats, like Reagan himself, reconsidered their political allegiance.
They came to be known as Richard Nixon's "silent majority." Later we knew them as Reagan Democrats. And they are now Obama's problem, like so many Democrats before him.
Poster Comment:
43% of whites voted for Obama, so this election wasn't actually much of a shift.
But just look at the completely hateful, unhinged reaction.
The "progressives" show their true colors.
They are genocidal.
Tip Jar (44+ / 0-)
Guilt is what you feel because of the kinds of things you've done. Responsibility is what you take because of the kind of person you are...
by tim wise on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 04:59:20 AM PDT
poor poor tim wise (0+ / 1-)
poor tim wise, hes not getting the expansion of black privilege he wants to see
and as for your rant
tim wise, thy name is...
delusional
by Vincent441 on Thu Nov 04, 2010 at 06:52:42 PM PDT
[ Parent ]
real anti-racist reject you tim wise (0+ / 0-)
we reject your calls for more black privilege
there shouldn't be any "African-Americans" because we are all American
by Vincent441 on Fri Nov 05, 2010 at 02:30:03 AM PDT
[ Parent ]
White people have spoken (15+ / 0-)
it wasn't ever about the issue on the right like the left. It was all about winning and showing minorities their place. In 2008, minorities and the youth thought they could make a difference and that population dynamics were shifting. They are, but as one can see with this election, there are a lot of bigots in this country and they are willing to do anything in their power to maintain control. Hispanics better watch out cause if they can (and we know the system is set up so they can) they will start jailing their men to reduce their population too.
"Don't bet against us" -President Barack Obama
"Velma the Exhausted"-KayCeSF
by moonpal on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 05:05:51 AM PDT
Moonpal you are so Correct. A (3+ / 0-)
white woman called c-span last night from NC. she said quote.
"I am so happy the Legislation is all republican again. The President has embrassed us all. The President and the Democrats must know that they DON'T run this country we do.
I lost sleep over that one. And my opinion the Dixicrats/dem liberal all over the country help the teabaggers last night, FL being a perfect example in Meek's case. The GOP offered NOTHING accept Anti-Obama and won big.
by lcarr23 on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 05:57:47 AM PDT
[ Parent ]
It was about fear, they can't sacrifice, the cann (0+ / 0-)
ot suffer, only poor and miniorities can do that. So we will vote republicans and let them steal and destroy so we can get on top. you know i will get a job and then we can help others. I'll got back to being A dem or a blue dog. I'll come back and vote the next time.
by Tulips on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 06:06:33 AM PDT
[ Parent ]
the stupidity of tim wise (0+ / 0-)
The mistake made here is that the young group of idealistic leftists remain that way throughout life,again they do not.
Sure a few always will remain useless and post at Daily kos but many many more after being schooled by life move to conservatism.
What this person is certain will die out history has shown keeps being reborn every election cycle.
you really are a self assured idiot.
by Vincent441 on Thu Nov 04, 2010 at 07:06:55 PM PDT
[ Parent ]
WOOOOOOO! (13+ / 0-)
clap clap clap clap clap clap clap!
After yesterday... I so needed this.
Thank you, from the bottom of my heart.
by Hatrax on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 05:09:34 AM PDT
yes I agree (0+ / 0-)
we need to see black privilege
god tim wise is such a moron
by Vincent441 on Thu Nov 04, 2010 at 06:55:19 PM PDT
[ Parent ]
Righteous. (12+ / 0-)
If only I could recommend this more than once.
by pasadena beggar on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 05:10:43 AM PDT
oh please (0+ / 1-)
tim wise is a delusional moron
by Vincent441 on Thu Nov 04, 2010 at 07:00:59 PM PDT
[ Parent ]
Amen! (3+ / 0-)
h2;m3;k2;m0;k7;k4;k7;l8;
by buzzybodhi on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 05:12:03 AM PDT
You are not supposed to insert (8+ / 0-)
a Recommended tag until the diary is actually on the rec list. You need to pull your edit until appropriate.
It is horrifying that we have to fight our own government to save the environment. - Ansel Adams
by Otteray Scribe on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 05:26:36 AM PDT
[ Parent ]
Just what I needed. Thanks. (4+ / 0-)
Still www.dailykos.com/story/2010/11/3/916520/-Get-me-the- F***-out-of-Michigan">leaving Michigan if I can pull it off though...
(RKBA) Right to Keep and Bear Arms: interested in a DKos RKBA group? Email in profile. Share Our Wealth
by KVoimakas on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 05:14:45 AM PDT
lol, my family (4+ / 0-)
actually had a pretty serious discussion about moving to another Country.
"Don't bet against us" -President Barack Obama
"Velma the Exhausted"-KayCeSF
by moonpal on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 05:21:40 AM PDT
[ Parent ]
I think about that daily (3+ / 0-)
and I'm in California. (Blessings to the progressive Calif winners last night)
by Liberal OC Woman on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 06:24:00 AM PDT
[ Parent ]
"We" is also temporary. n/t (1+ / 0-)
One's off.
by valion on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 05:19:07 AM PDT
Had hoped for some pretty pictures n/t (1+ / 0-)
by megisi on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 05:20:50 AM PDT
What an asinine comment to make. nt (3+ / 0-)
"There's more coffee in the pot than there is tea in the cup" Reverend Jesse Jackson on number of teabaggers vs number of black voters
by second gen on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 06:34:12 AM PDT
[ Parent ]
In color ... where are they, dammit? n/t (0+ / 0-)
by megisi on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 07:34:55 AM PDT
[ Parent ]
Yes. Tim Wise is a pretty picture poster. (4+ / 1-)
You're acting like an ignorant fuck. Stop it.
"There's more coffee in the pot than there is tea in the cup" Reverend Jesse Jackson on number of teabaggers vs number of black voters
by second gen on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 07:53:05 AM PDT
[ Parent ]
Oh, I'm so sorry ... donut 4 u (0+ / 1-)
But, thanks for playing and, next time, play a little nicer, eh?
by megisi on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 08:02:06 AM PDT
[ Parent ]
Oh, I'm sorry, remove your donut, it's abusive (5+ / 0-)
and against the rules.
"There's more coffee in the pot than there is tea in the cup" Reverend Jesse Jackson on number of teabaggers vs number of black voters
by second gen on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 08:09:49 AM PDT
[ Parent ]
HR abuse. (0+ / 0-)
You remove yours & I'll remove mine.
"Congressmen should be just like athletes. They should have to wear the brand of the corporation they're working for." - Robin Williams
by Independant Man on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 02:06:51 PM PDT
[ Parent ]
Remove my what? ... ya perv n/t (0+ / 0-)
by megisi on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 03:19:36 PM PDT
[ Parent ]
Insha'allah. n/t (3+ / 0-)
Real stupidity beats artificial intelligence every time. (Terry Pratchett)
by angry marmot on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 05:21:59 AM PDT
Thank you. n/t (0+ / 0-)
by mamamedusa on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 05:23:43 AM PDT
Thank you. (2+ / 0-)
And you are so right.
I look at my children, who refer to my childhood in the 60's as "the time before safety" (you know, when we had lawn jarts instead of baby seats) and I know. These people frantically trying to hold on to their imaginary past are done.
by Linda in Ohio on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 05:26:10 AM PDT
Thanks. I needed that! n/t (2+ / 0-)
-7.62, -7.28
"Hold fast to dreams, for if dreams die, life is a broken winged bird that cannot fly." -Langston Hughes
by luckylizard on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 05:27:01 AM PDT
Turnout was abysmal in Michigan (4+ / 0-)
The result? The state supreme court, governor seat and legislature is firmly in Republican hands. They also control the AG's office (for what will now be three elections in a row) and the secretary of state. And far from determining the outcome of close and contested races, Michigan's urban centers suffered from absolutely abysmal turnout. Why? Because the gap between hope/change and the daily reality of life in a state with record unemployment, particularly for black residents, is really, really huge.
Your diary is a nice message for "the long run," but as Keynes was fond of saying, everyone dies in the long run, not just white reactionaries. There was a reason for the poor performance yesterday, and it is not simply racism. Certainly racism animates many within the right wing; we've known that for a long while. Record unemployment and quiet despair and apathy seemed to have played a substantial role in yesterday's outcomes, however, and in many key racies, the white reactionaries you refer to lost, and cost Republicans what should have been easy victories. I think the message here is decidedly mixed.
"All along the watchtower, princes kept the view..."
by Alec82 on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 05:29:55 AM PDT
We're blood red now. (3+ / 0-)
I'm done.
I'm out.
(RKBA) Right to Keep and Bear Arms: interested in a DKos RKBA group? Email in profile. Share Our Wealth
by KVoimakas on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 05:34:55 AM PDT
[ Parent ]
It really... (4+ / 0-)
...is not that bad. They had a very good showing; the supreme court in particular is troubling. But it is a temporary victory. They wanted to govern, and how they have the chance to show that they can. All by themselves. Do you really think that they can achieve anything ? Pontiac just laid off its police force, municipalities are looking for ways to cut costs everywhere, the cost of everything apart from housing seems to rise steadily and they are coming in promising tax cuts.
They're destined to fail, just like the Democrats faced an uphill battle with the economy. I'm telling you, from 2008 to 2018, at least ten years of turmoil and a shaky political future. The problems we face are real, but they are multicausal and structural as well. No party is getting out of this unscathed. And my long run (4 years) is shorter than Tim's lifetime long run. :-)
I felt the same way after 2004. Remember the beating gays have taken in this state? If we can survive it I think you will, too, although I don't blame anyone for leaving given the job market now.
"All along the watchtower, princes kept the view..."
by Alec82 on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 05:41:30 AM PDT
[ Parent ]
Engler did enough damage. (2+ / 0-)
More GOP rule will drive this state into the ground.
(RKBA) Right to Keep and Bear Arms: interested in a DKos RKBA group? Email in profile. Share Our Wealth
by KVoimakas on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 05:43:11 AM PDT
[ Parent ]
It will, and then... (2+ / 0-)
...it will get better. It is a pendulum that swings back and forth and will do so for the foreseeable future. It is a low point here, certainly, but not the end.
I mean, I knew it was coming, and even the supreme court was not entirely shocking. I guess I wasn't surprised as others were by the results.
"All along the watchtower, princes kept the view..."
by Alec82 on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 05:50:26 AM PDT
[ Parent ]
I agree with you on this one, Alec. (7+ / 0-)
I did phone banking, and a number of discouraged voters, both white folks and people of color, just stayed home. Harry Reid won largely because Sharron Angle antagonized the Hispanic voters in NV. They came out in force for Harry Reid who was not popular in his state. The electorate is changing, and will continue to change. There was a strong undercurrent of racism in the tea party, but a lot of folks were worried about the 10% unemployment and losing their homes.
IGTNT
by blue jersey mom on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 05:38:33 AM PDT
[ Parent ]
Yes I find it strange.. (2+ / 0-)
....that they continue to insist they have nothing to worry about when the example of California sits next to the states where they're pressing for nativist reaction to immigration.
But I have no doubt that there will always be an outlet for the right wing, just like troubled economies will always produce a window of opportunity for the kind of sweeping change we saw yesterday. That's been true for thousands of years, and I don't think 2010 was exceptional. Notwithstanding Rubio's insistence to the contrary. :-)
"All along the watchtower, princes kept the view..."
by Alec82 on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 05:45:46 AM PDT
[ Parent ]
And all the jobs that Jennifer was bringing (0+ / 0-)
back after a long drought will be credited to the reptilicans. Well, they'll claim the credit, anyway. And, as Michigan has just shown us, she's dumb enough to believe it.
"There's more coffee in the pot than there is tea in the cup" Reverend Jesse Jackson on number of teabaggers vs number of black voters
by second gen on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 06:35:59 AM PDT
[ Parent ]
Guess Obama should have let the Big 3 die, eh? (1+ / 0-)
Since saving them made absolutely no difference to Democratic prospects there in any event.
by John DiFool on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 06:41:32 AM PDT
[ Parent ]
Changes aren't permanent... (4+ / 0-)
...but change is. So said Rush (the Canadian prog band, not the fat screaming idiot).
My wife and I were having a discussion about change yesterday. It's easy, so easy, to forget that, on the whole, the world is a better place now than it's ever been before. But there's a lot still to do, and it's hard for those of us who have already embraced the change in our hearts to wait for everyone else to catch up. My wife and I both agree that any two consenting adults, regardless of gender combination, should be able to marry. Obvious. Easy. So why is it taking so damn long? We're both around 40ish now. We'll probably be officially old by the time gays, lesbians, and straights are all allowed the same freedom to marry who they wish everywhere in the USA. But the change IS coming. It's just coming slower than we like.
The same goes for every other issue. It took how long for people of color to be free of slavery, to be able to vote, to have the same freedoms as others? How long for women to get the right to vote? But these things are cemented now, and even the baggiest bigot in government wouldn't dream of trying to go backwards on these things.
The diarist is absolutely right, and while we must acknowledge the setback we suffered and learn from it, the future is bright, bright, bright. Let them give their worst.
Tidal wave? It hit us, got us a little wet, and we're lying in the sand coughing up water (tainted with BP oil, no doubt) while our opponent (imagine Speaker-to-be Boner in a Victorian bathing costume, if you dare) laughs and gloats. But there's a bigger wave, a much bigger wave, behind him, right now, and it's growing and gaining speed all the time!
by Hatrax on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 05:32:48 AM PDT
Dreaming? (1+ / 0-)
They are having wet dreams about reversing every social advance the country has made since the revolution!
As long as it doesn't affect them personally....
FOSI: Full Of Shit Information - Both my sister and I are trivia freaks...
by Spoc42 on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 07:03:48 AM PDT
[ Parent ]
Of course, but... (0+ / 0-)
Of course they are. There are always reactionaries.
BUT...
Do you really, honestly think that even the nuttiest bagger freak would stand up in the House and introduce a bill to bring back segregated toilet facilities? Take away a woman's right to vote? Bring back slavery?
If it's been law for a long enough time, it tends to get ingrained in the national psyche. They may try, and dream, and scheme, but they will not make it so.
The newer stuff is, the more likely it is to be rolled back. The right to choose is under attack. Gay marriage goes to and fro. There will be triumphs and setbacks and each is magnified because we are in the middle of seeing history happen. But these too shall solidify and then... the freaks are out of time, and they'll have to find a new target to attack. And so on, and so on.
by Hatrax on Thu Nov 04, 2010 at 02:20:22 AM PDT
[ Parent ]
Ok lets see (7+ / 0-)
The repugs say they will create jobs right.How can they do that if they are sending jobs over seas.The unemployment rate will go up to 18% at least.The rethugs voted against unemployment payments.With 4 to 5 million unemployed why did some of them vote for the repugs.We are fat and dumb
by freshman22 on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 05:38:07 AM PDT
They can't create jobs. They don't even want to (1+ / 0-)
They are banking on turning the USA into a 3rd world, low-wage, working class, "church" to their religious fantasies and fiscal "wet-dreams."
I think this sets up a nice plate of 'revenge' for 2012 because the electorate will then see what they promised and couldn't deliver. They are going to hold power for one cycle, and then in 2012, they serve up a huge progressive "tsunami"
Just watch--what comes around goes around.
by Liberal OC Woman on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 06:31:44 AM PDT
[ Parent ]
They're not worried about that (0+ / 0-)
They'll simply blaim it on Obama and the Democrats, saying they "inherited the problem."
FOSI: Full Of Shit Information - Both my sister and I are trivia freaks...
by Spoc42 on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 07:06:29 AM PDT
[ Parent ]
I see no evidence (2+ / 0-)
They did? They lost? When? Where? How? Who beat them?
American business is about maximizing shareholder value. You basically don't want workers. ~Allen Sinai
by ActivistGuy on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 06:09:11 AM PDT
The joke is on them (3+ / 0-)
If they thought teabagging Republicans will improve their lives, they are about to find out the hard way that their lives just got worse.
"The real wealth of a nation consists of the contributions of its people and nature." -- Rianne Eisler
by noofsh on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 06:14:01 AM PDT
They'll blame the Democrats (0+ / 0-)
They always do.
FOSI: Full Of Shit Information - Both my sister and I are trivia freaks...
by Spoc42 on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 07:10:51 AM PDT
[ Parent ]
This white chick loves this diary. (4+ / 0-)
Might have to borrow a line or 2 while I'm at it! Great stuff.
by Liberal OC Woman on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 06:21:21 AM PDT
Thanks for this site KOS! You crazy white boy! (0+ / 0-)
n/t
Nothing more to see, just a blank white page.
by opticnerver on Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 06:50:18 AM PDT
Apologies for my reflexive response, I just wish (0+ / 0-)
the clique of black conservatives at my last "corporate" job in Los Angeles who's looks drilled holes through me with their antagonism for views I shared on the open company forum (the owners wanted a patina of progressiveness) wouldn't pass over this because they figure it has nothing to do with them.
For the record, I never mentioned Steele, or Watts or the other Watts or any other black conservatives in my comments. It was strictly progressive views in the context of our greater culture from a white boy who grew up in Detroit.
I just never forgot the way they looked at me.