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(s)Elections
See other (s)Elections Articles

Title: Exit Polls: Unprecedented White Flight from Democrats
Source: RealClearPolitics
URL Source: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ar ... ht_from_democrats__107824.html
Published: Nov 3, 2010
Author: David Paul Kuhn
Post Date: 2010-11-05 02:29:10 by Prefrontal Vortex
Keywords: None
Views: 165
Comments: 11

Exit Polls: Unprecedented White Flight from Democrats

By David Paul Kuhn

Democrats performed worse with whites on Tuesday than in any other congressional election since the Second World War.

Democrats' white problems stretch back nearly a half-century. Political white flight changed course with the implosion of George W. Bush's presidency, the Republican Party and the economy in September 2008.

Today, it's almost as if none of that ever came to pass. Democrats' bad old days are back, and in an especially bad way.

Republicans won whites in Tuesday's national House vote by a 22-percentage point margin (60 to 38 percent) according to exit polls. In 2006, Republicans won whites by a mere 4 points. Whites shifted at three-fold the rate of Hispanics between the two midterms, while the black vote remained steady. Democrats faired even worse than in 1994, when Republicans won whites by 16 points (58 to 42 percent) and with them, a landslide.

Now comes a House landslide unseen since 1938. Presidents are the ghost candidates of midterms. In fact, more voters said Obama was a factor in their vote than said Bush was a factor four years ago.

In this vein, Democrats' problems with whites reflect whites' problems with Obama. Whites' support for Democrats in 2010 roughly matches the president's standing prior to the September 2008 crash. Before the crash, Obama polled like earlier Democratic nominees with whites. After the crash, Obama earned the support of more white men than any other Democrat since 1976. He also improved with white women, winning a traditional share for Democrats.

Those gains are gone. Obama's approval rating with whites has declined from the low 60s (week one) to the high 30s (this week).

We will hear charges of racism. But independent whites who voted for Obama have not suddenly realized he's black. Many independents were willing to gamble on Democrats. Their support for Republicans was spent. But Democrats misinterpreted the gamble for an investment. And the Democratic House broke. This is not the first president to experience buyer's remorse.

The recession was the dominant factor for voters this year. But the recession cannot be separated from Obama's agenda. It's said that governing is choosing. Obama's priorities were not the majority's priorities, especially not whites. Most whites have favored a smaller government over a bigger government for decades. Obama's agenda heralded the return of big government, or active-state liberalism. He gave the boldest liberal push since the Great Society.

But Democratic leaders, and much of the "professional left," ignored history. In fact, they ignored the present. I wrote an essay at the close of 2008 illustrating why Democrats' historic problems with whites endured, why Obama's election was more chance than change, warning that the past has a way of catching up with progressives.

The past has caught up. Democrats chose legislation on healthcare and climate change over major jobs initiatives. They chose LBJ over FDR. By the time Democrats tried to move to jobs, whites had already moved on. Yesterday, Democrats lax focus on jobs created many new Republican jobs (in politics).

Lyndon Johnson's domestic programs lost whites support in polls by 1966, and with them the majority. Obama has proceeded like Johnson and received a like rebuke. Only about a third of white men and white women approved of Obama's signature domestic legislation, healthcare, at the time of its passage. Whites similarly opposed the stimulus. It's no accident that over the summer of 2009, when healthcare dominated the debate, Obama first lost the majority of whites and independents.

The keyword is "lost." Voters equally disapprove of both parties. Democrats lost whites. Republicans did not win them. This election was not a vote for Republicans anymore than 2006 was a vote for Democrats. We just witnessed an historic no confidence vote.

Those lost are not simply "soccer moms" or "NASCAR dads." Only 35 percent of white men voted for Democrats compared to 40 percent of white women. That marks a 9-point Democratic loss with both blocs since 2006. Democrats performed especially poorly with white women compared to past House elections-- 6 points worse than in 1994. In post-war congressional elections, 2010 signifies Democrats' worst showing with white women and the floor of Democrats' standing with white men.

Democrats also performed slightly worse with white independents than in any House contest since at least the Reagan era. Same story with college and non-college educated whites, as well as white seniors. The losses threaded the suburbs, small towns and rural areas. This was not a wave isolated to any swing vote trope or slice of whites.

This was broad white flight. And it crossed a symbolic threshold. Among whites, for the first time in post-war congressional elections, Republicans hit the 60-point level of support and Democrats fell below the 40-point mark.

Obama will not easily win these voters back. Whites constitute a smaller share of the electorate than in decades past. And their influence is greater in midterms than White House contests. Yet Ohio captures the presidential problem. The GOP swept every contest in the mega swing state. Obama cannot win back Ohio without winning back whites.

Midterm landslides do not consistently telegraph presidential outcomes. It did not for Clinton's Democrats in 1994. It did for Johnson's Democrats in 1966.

Democrats' white problems today can be partly traced back to the politics of 1966. One labor report following the 1966 midterm warned Democrats that, "The repudiation of the Democratic Party reached deeply into the political structure." The analysis alerted liberal leaders to a "white backlash" against Democrats from Northern blue-collar and middle-income areas to the South. And with civil rights, Vietnam, fissures between white and blue collar Democrats, divisions over crime, defense, culture and the role of government, white FDR Democrats, like Reagan himself, reconsidered their political allegiance.

They came to be known as Richard Nixon's "silent majority." Later we knew them as Reagan Democrats. And they are now Obama's problem, like so many Democrats before him.


Poster Comment:

43% of whites voted for Obama, so this election wasn't actually much of a shift.

But just look at the completely hateful, unhinged reaction.

The "progressives" show their true colors.

They are genocidal.

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#1. To: Prefrontal Vortex, 4, *Dopey White Folk* (#0)

Thanks for posting this, PV, and this reaction follows the exact path I said it would. Well done angry white voters. Do it again, harder, in '12. Make this Interloper a one termer and watch the natives go wild. If He is deposed, you will have your civil chaos simply because some of us aren't capable of living by the rules.

Jethro Tull  posted on  2010-11-05   9:20:00 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#2. To: Jethro Tull (#1)

The keyword is "lost." Voters equally disapprove of both parties. Democrats lost whites. Republicans did not win them. This election was not a vote for Republicans anymore than 2006 was a vote for Democrats. We just witnessed an historic no confidence vote.

Well Jethro, this should make your day. It makes me happy.

My assessment is that in truth many whites voted white and voted American, to hell with party and ideology.

Cynicom  posted on  2010-11-05   9:29:16 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#3. To: Cynicom, all, *Dopey White Folk* (#1)

www.dailykos.com/story/2010/11/3/75623/1733

An Open Letter to the White Right, On the Occasion of Your Recent, Successful Temper Tantrum

www.dailykos.com/storyonl...16577/-An-Open-Letter-to- the-White-Right,-On-the-Occasion-of-Your-Recent,-Successful-Temper-Tantrum" st*l*="vertical-align:top"> www.dailykos.com/storyonl...16577/-An-Open-Letter-to- the-

Jethro Tull  posted on  2010-11-05   9:31:48 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#4. To: Cynicom, all, *Dopey White Folk* (#1)

www.dailykos.com/story/2010/11/3/75623/1733

An Open Letter to the White Right, On the Occasion of Your Recent, Successful Temper Tantrum

www.dailykos.com/storyonl...16577/-An-Open-Letter-to- the-White-Right,-On-the-Occasion-of-Your-Recent,-Successful-Temper-Tantrum" st*l*="vertical-align:top"> www.dailykos.com/storyonl...16577/-An-Open-Letter-to- the-White-Right,-On-the-Occasion-of-Your-Recent,-Successful-Temper-Tantrum" st*l*="vertical-align:top">

www.facebook.com/plugins/like.php?href=http%3A%2F% 2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstor...577%2F-An-Open-Letter-to- the-White-Right%2C-On-the-Occasion-of-Your-Recent%2C-Successful-Temper- Tantrum&layout=button_count&show_faces=false&width=180&action=li ke&colorscheme=light&height=35" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" st*l*="width:90px; height:35px; vertical-align:top; overflow:hidden;" allowTransparency="true">

by tim wise

Wed Nov 03, 2010 at 04:59:20 AM PDT

For all y57;all rich folks, enjoy that champagne, or whatever fancy ass Scotch you drink.

And for y57;all a bit lower on the economic scale, enjoy your Pabst Blue Ribbon, or whatever shitty ass beer you favor.

Whatever the case, and whatever your economic station, know this70;

You need to drink up.

And quickly.

And heavily.

Because your time is limited.

Real damned limited.

So party while you can, but mind the increasingly loud clock ticking away in the corners of your consciousness.

The clock that reminds you how little time you and yours have left.

Not much more now.

Tick, tock.

Tick, tock.

Tick.

Tock.

I know, you think you57;ve taken 60;your country back61; with this election -- and of course you have always thought it was yours for the taking, cuz that57;s what we white folks are bred to believe, that it57;s ours, and how dare anyone else say otherwise -- but you are wrong.

You have won a small battle in a larger war the meaning of which you do not remotely understand.

56;Cuz there is nothing even slightly original about you.

There have always been those who wanted to take the country back.

There were those who, in past years, wanted to take the country back to a time of enslavement and indentured servitude.

But they lost.

There were those who wanted to take us back to a time when children could be made to work in mines and factories, when workers had no legal rights to speak of, when the skies in every major city were heavy with industrial soot that would gather on sidewalks and windowsills like volcanic ash.

But they lost.

There were those who wanted to take us back to a time when women could not vote, or attend any but a few colleges, or get loans in their own names, or start their own businesses.

But they lost.

There were those who wanted to take us back to a time when blacks 60;had no rights that the white man was bound to respect,61; 51; this being the official opinion of the Supreme Court before those awful days of judicial activism, now decried by the likes of you 51; and when people of color could legally be kept from voting solely because of race, or holding certain jobs, or living in certain neighborhoods, or run out of other towns altogether when the sun would go down, or be strung up from trees.

But they lost.

And you will lose.

So make a note of it.

Tweet it to yourself.

Put it on your Facebook wall and leave it there so you57;ll remember that I told you so.

It is coming, and soon.

This isn57;t hubris. It isn57;t ideology. It is not wishful thinking.

It is math.

Not even advanced math. Just simple, basic, like 3rd grade math.

The kind of math that proves how your kind -- mostly older white folks beholden to an absurd, inaccurate, nostalgic fantasy of what America used to be like -- are dying.

You57;re like the bad guy in every horror movie ever made, who gets shot five times, or stabbed ten, or blown up twice, and who will eventually pass -- even if it takes four sequels to make it happen -- but who in the meantime keeps coming back around, grabbing at our ankles as we walk by, we having been mistakenly convinced that you were finally dead this time.

Fair enough, and have at it. But remember how this movie ends.

Our ankles survive.

You do not.

Michael Meyers, Freddie Kreuger, Jason, and that asshole husband in that movie with Julia Roberts who tracks her down after she runs away and changes her identity--they are all done. Even that crazy fucker in Saw is about to be finished off for good. Granted, he57;s gonna be popping out in 3-D to scare the kiddies, so he isn57;t going quietly. But he57;s going, as all bad guys eventually do.

And in the pantheon of American history, conservative old white people have pretty much always been the bad guys, the keepers of the hegemonic and reactionary flame, the folks unwilling to share the category of American with others on equal terms.

Fine, keep it up. It doesn't matter.

Because you57;re on the endangered list.

And unlike, say, the bald eagle or some exotic species of muskrat, you are not worth saving.

In forty years or so, maybe fewer, there won57;t be any more white people around who actually remember that Leave it to Beaver, Father Knows Best, Opie-Taylor-Down-at-the-Fishing Hole cornpone bullshit that you hold so near and dear to your heart.

There won57;t be any more white folks around who think the 1950s were the good old days, because there won57;t be any more white folks around who actually remember them, and so therefore, we57;ll be able to teach about them accurately and honestly, without hurting your precious feelings, or those of the so-called 60;greatest generation61; -- a bunch whose white contingent was top-heavy with ethical miscreants who helped save the world from fascism only to return home and oppose the ending of it here, by doing nothing to lift a finger on behalf of the civil rights struggle.

It's OK. Because in about forty years, half the country will be black or brown. And there is nothing you can do about it.

Nothing, Senõr Tancredo.

Nothing, Senõra Angle, or Senõra Brewer, or Senõr Beck.

Loy tiene muy mal, hijo de Puta.

And by then you will have gone all in as a white nationalist movement -- hell you57;ve all but done that now -- thus guaranteeing that the folks of color, and even a decent size minority of us white folks will be able to crush you, election after election, from the Presidency on down to the 8th grade student council.

Like I said, this is math. And numbers don57;t lie.

Bottom line, this too shall pass.

So enjoy your tax cuts a while longer.

Go buy whatever you people buy when your taxes get cut: a new car or two, a bigger house, an island. Whatever.

Go back to trading your derivatives, engaging in rampant financial speculation that produces nothing of value, that turns the whole world into your personal casino. Whatever.

Play your hand, and for the love of God play it big. Real big. As in, shoot for the moon big. As in, try to privatize Social Security, and health care, and everything else. Whatever.

At least that way everyone will be able to see what you're really about.

We57;ve been trying to tell them, but nothing beats seeing it with your own eyes, so "Go big or go home," Bubba.

"Git 56;er Done."

"Cowboy up," or whatever other stupid catch phrase strikes your fancy.

Just promise you57;ll do more than talk this time.

Please, or as one of your celluloid heroes might put it, 60;make my day.61;

Do whatever you gotta do, but remember that those who are the victims of your greed and indifference take the long view.

They know, but you do not, that justice is not for the sprinters, but rather for the long distance runners who will be hitting their second wind, right about the time that you collapse from exhaustion.

They are like the tortoise to your hare.

They are like the San Francisco Giants, to your New York Yankees: a bunch that loses year after year after year, until they finally win.

You have had this confidence before, remember?

You thought you had secured your position permanently after the overthrow of reconstruction in the wake of the civil war, after the elimination of the New Deal, after the Reagan revolution, after the Republican electoral victory of 1994. And yet, those you thought you had cowed and defeated are still here.

Because those who have lived on the margins, who have been abused, maligned, targeted by austerity measures and budget cuts, subjected to racism, classism, sexism, straight supremacy and every other form of oppression always know more about their abusers than the abusers know about their victims.

They have to study you, to pay careful attention, to adjust their body armor accordingly, and to memorize your sleep patterns.

You, on the other hand, need know nothing whatsoever about them. And this, will surely prove politically fatal to you in the end. For it means you will not know their resolve. Will not fear it, as you should.

It means you will take their greatest strength -- perseverance -- and make of it a weakness, called losing.

But what you forget, or more to the point never knew, is that those who lose know how to lose, which is to say they know how to lose with dignity.

And those who suffer know how to suffer, which is to say they know how to survive: a skill that is in short supply amid the likes of you.

You, who could not survive the thought of minimal health care reform, or financial regulation, or a marginal tax rate equal to that which you paid just 10 years earlier, perhaps are under the illusion that everyone is as weak as you, as soft as you, as akin to petulant children as you are, as unable to cope with the smallest setback, the slightest challenge to the way you think your country should look and feel, and operate.

But they are not.

And they know how to regroup, and plot, and plan, and they are planning even now -- we are -- your destruction.

And I do not mean by that your physical destruction. We don57;t play those games. We57;re not into the whole 60;Second Amendment remedies, militia, armed resistance61; bullshit that your side fetishizes, cuz, see, we don57;t have to be. We don't need guns.

We just have to be patient.

And wait for you to pass into that good night, first politically, and then, well...

Do you hear it?

The sound of your empire dying? Your nation, as you knew it, ending, permanently?

Because I do, and the sound of its demise is beautiful.

So know this.

If you thought this election was payback for 2008, remember70;

Payback, thy name is70;

Temporary.


Tags: election, Tea Party, Republicans (all tags) :: Previous Tag Versions

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Daily Kos Help

Jethro Tull  posted on  2010-11-05   9:31:49 ET  (1 image) Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#5. To: Jethro Tull, All (#1)

It’s easy to give lip service to the Constitution while on the campaign trail, but far too often, we’ve seen politicians break their promises and massively increase the size of government once in office.

The above is out of Ron Pauls camp today via email.

It is sobering.

Cynicom  posted on  2010-11-05   9:34:04 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#6. To: Cynicom, 4 (#2) (Edited)

Well Jethro, this should make your day. It makes me happy

Thanks Cyni, and it does make my day. I knew this anti-White reaction would be the reaction of the left, and yes, this wasn't a vote for the Republican party. It was a vote against business as usual and for the Tea Party who used the Republican Party as their vehicle for ballot access. Their two year probation begins when they place their asses in their seats in January. I don't expect miracles, just steady progress, and if necessary, a complete separation from the Republican elite.

Our noses are now under the tent.

Jethro Tull  posted on  2010-11-05   9:38:52 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#7. To: Cynicom, 4 (#5)

It’s easy to give lip service to the Constitution while on the campaign trail, but far too often, we’ve seen politicians break their promises and massively increase the size of government once in office.

The above is out of Ron Pauls camp today via email.

It is sobering.

The election was the easy part. Now comes the hard part. I think it's very important that Rand Paul is planning to caucus apart from the Republicans. Lets see who does and doesn't join him. Those who don't, paint a big, red bulls-eye on their ass because they're next to be fired.

Jethro Tull  posted on  2010-11-05   9:46:06 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#8. To: Jethro Tull (#7) (Edited)

I think it's very important that Rand Paul is planning to caucus apart from the Republicans. Lets see who does and doesn't join him. Those who don't, paint a big, red bulls-eye on their ass because they're next to be fired.

There are dull spots in this past election and there are some bright spots.

Dull...

The biased whites of Mass. returned that queer Bonney Fwank to office once again.

Hawaii gave Inouye his 9th term as senator. That man is 86 years old and will be there until he is 92. That will be 54 years, unless the Grim Reaper decides, enough is enough and over rules the stupidity of the Hawaiians.

Bright...

Those red neck white trash of the South elected two American blacks.

More women have stepped forth and been elected than ever in my lifetime. This is long overdue.

Cynicom  posted on  2010-11-05   10:02:19 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#9. To: Prefrontal Vortex, all (#0)

But just look at the completely hateful, unhinged reaction.

Poor timmy. He sounds upset. Let them hate. I dont want them to like me. I dont want them to like me one little bit.

It's a beautiful sunshiny brisk day here, Haiti is getting pounded by that beautiful and glorious Hurricane Tomas, the domestic nogs beez mad 'n sheet and will get madder as time goes on, YT has done a good thing this election and told the HNIC to fuck off and die already.

Yep. All in all, things are lookin' pretty damn good!

.


Click for Privacy and Preparedness files

”I say to each man and woman, you are unique and sovereign, the center of a universe. However right I may be in thinking as I do, you may be equally right in thinking otherwise. You can only accomplish your object in life by complete disregard of the opinions of other people.“ - Aleister Crowley

Jesus Never Existed

PSUSA  posted on  2010-11-05   10:22:37 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#10. To: Prefrontal Vortex, *Obama Reality Check* (#0)

White folks didn't pick up on what Obummer was laying down in 2008 bump

__________________________________________________________
"This man is Jesus,” shouted one man, spilling his Guinness as Barack Obama began his inaugural address. “When will he come to Kenya to save us?"

“The best and first guarantor of our neutrality and our independent existence is the defensive will of the people…and the proverbial marksmanship of the Swiss shooter. Each soldier a good marksman! Each shot a hit!”
-Schweizerische Schuetzenzeitung (Swiss Shooting Federation) April, 1941

X-15  posted on  2010-11-05   14:28:40 ET  (1 image) Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#11. To: PSUSA (#9)

Haiti is getting pounded by that beautiful and glorious Hurricane Tomas

I hope our brothers in Haiti double down on their zoodoo lessons.

Jethro Tull  posted on  2010-11-05   14:34:31 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


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