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Title: Debunking a viral blog post on the nuke threat
Source: salon.com
URL Source: http://www.salon.com/news/politics/war_room/index.html
Published: Mar 15, 2011
Author: By Justin Elliott
Post Date: 2011-03-15 19:54:20 by TwentyTwelve
Keywords: Josef Oehmen
Views: 211
Comments: 14

Tuesday, Mar 15, 2011 17:37 ET

Debunking a viral blog post on the nuke threat

An MIT researcher's claim that there was no threat of radiation in Japan was picked up widely, then it fell apart

By Justin Elliott

AP Photo/Tokyo Power Electric Co./MIT

The Fukushima Daiichi power plant's Unit 1 is seen before (left) and after (right) an explosion in Okumamachi, Fukushima prefecture, Japan, Saturday, March 12, 2011. Inset: Josef Oehmen

A viral blog post claimed that there was no chance "significant radiation" would be released from damaged reactors in Japan, but despite having been republished widely around the Web, the post has not held up to scrutiny.

Identified as an "MIT research scientist," Dr. Josef Oehmen wrote the post over the weekend with the title, "Why I am not worried about Japan’s nuclear reactors." It was a modified version of an e-mail he sent to family and friends in Japan on Saturday evening, according to the blog where it was originally posted.

Oehmen, it turns out, does work at MIT but has no special expertise in nuclear power. And his key claim -- that "there was and will *not* be any significant release of radioactivity from the damaged Japanese reactors" -- appears to have already been proven false. While clearly the situation is still developing and all the facts are not yet known, the New York Times reported today that an explosion at the Fukushima Daiichi plant released "a surge of radiation 800 times more intense than the recommended hourly exposure limit in Japan," leading to the evacuation of 750 workers. Meanwhile, the government has ordered 140,000 within 20 miles of the plant to stay indoors.

But Oehmen's blog post, which also took shots at the media for what he claimed was bad reporting, has gotten lots of pickup. The essay has been reposted on literally hundreds of websites and message boards around the Web. It originally came to my attention when a few Salon readers e-mailed it in. Several well-read publications, including Business Insider, Discover Magazine and the UK Telegraph have either republished or linked to Oehmen's blog post; it was even touted by CNBC personality Jim Cramer. Business Insider ran the piece with the headline "You Can Stop Worrying About A Radiation Disaster In Japan -- Here's Why."

Oehmen's essay has also been seized on by pro-nuclear partisans. A website called TheEnergyCollective.com -- which is run by Siemens AG, a major supplier for the nuclear industry -- republished Oehmen's blog post, and that version of the post alone was subsequently shared on social media sites 35,000 times. It was also posted on a pro-nuclear site called bravenewclimate.com.

Oehmen's post contained a detailed description of how the reactors at Fukushima Daiichi work, as well as of the various containment vessels that, according to Oehmen, would protect people from radiation in any and all circumstances. He also railed against the media for alleged reporting inaccuracies:

I have been reading every news release on the incident since the earthquake. There has not been one single report that was accurate and free of errors (and part of that problem is also a weakness in the Japanese crisis communication). ... I have read a 3 page report on CNN where every single paragraph contained an error.

Part of the weight of the blog post comes from the fact that Oehmen was identified as an "MIT research scientist."

So does Oehmen actually work at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology? Yes. But not in the nuclear engineering department. He works at an entity called the Lean Advancement Initiative, which focuses on business management issues. Is he a "research scientist"? Yes. But, again, not in any nuclear field. Oehmen's research focuses on "risk management" with an eye to helping companies "take entrepreneurial risks." He writes papers on things like "Human Resource Management in China."

I e-mailed Oehmen to ask if he stands by the claims in the post. He referred me to the MIT press office, which in turn told me that Oehmen is not doing interviews.

An updated version of Oehmen's blog post is now being hosted at a website set up by students in MIT's Department of Nuclear Science and Engineering. Oehmen's crucial claim -- that there was no chance radiation would be released -- has been cut. The title, which was originally "Why I am not worried about Japan’s nuclear reactors," has been changed. An introduction pointedly says, "Note that the title of the original blog does not reflect the views of the authors of the site."

(Special thanks to reader PN for the tip.)

* Justin Elliott is a Salon reporter. Reach him by email at jelliott@salon.com and follow him on Twitter @ElliottJustin More: Justin Elliott

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#1. To: TwentyTwelve (#0)

"there was and will *not* be any significant release of radioactivity from the damaged Japanese reactors" -- appears to have already been proven false.

400 mSv an hour is a bunch. You don't want to be anywhere near that.

Radiation from Japanese reactor leak climbs to 400 mSv an hour
March 15, 2011
by Brendon Nafziger, DOTmed News Associate Editor

Radiation levels from a nuclear power plant damaged by last week's earthquake and resulting tsunami in Japan climbed to 400 millisieverts an hour briefly early Tuesday before falling to safer levels, according to reports.

The most recently observed level was 0.6 mSv an hour, equivalent to about six chest X-rays, after falling from 11.9 mSv six hours earlier, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency, which is monitoring the situation.

The IAEA said the 400 mSv radiation release could have been caused by a fire at a spent fuel storage pond near reactor number four at the the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station. The fire has since been extinguished, Japanese authorities said.

"This is a high dose-level value, but it is a local value at a single location and at a certain point in time," the group wrote on its website. "The IAEA continues to confirm the evolution and value of this dose rate. It should be noted that because of this detected value, non-indispensable staff was evacuated from the plant, in line with the Emergency Response Plan, and that the population around the plant is already evacuated."

Workers are furiously trying to pump seawater into the affected reactors at the 40-year-old plant, which lost power after being struck by the tsunami Friday, to cool them and prevent further damage. At least three explosions have rocked the plants, due to the accumulation of hydrogen gas, the IAEA said.

The four units of the Fukushima Daini nuclear plants, which were also affected, were automatically shut down Friday. Units 1, 2 and 3 are in a safe, cold shutdown; workers are trying to restore heat-removal systems for unit 4.

“Radiation dose rate measurements observed at four locations around the plant´s perimeter over a 16-hour period on 13 March were all normal,” the IAEA said.

On Tuesday, the Japanese government warned the nearly 100,000 residents believed to live within a 20-mile radius of the Daiichi plant to stay indoors, keep the windows shut and turn off air conditioning. Already, approximately 185,000 people have been evacuated from towns near affected power plants, according to Japan's Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency.

Around 150 people near the Daiichi site have been monitored for radiation exposure. Measures to decontaminate 23 of them have already been taken, the IAEA reported.

The crisis at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station, located about 155 miles northeast of Tokyo, has been called the worst reactor disaster since the Chernobyl reactor explosion almost 25 years ago. However, many experts think the risks to the public remain low.

Continue reading Radiation from Japanese reactor leak climbs to 400 mSv an hour...

www.dotmed.com/news/story/15557

It is a violation of Natural Law to use this document in a manner inconsistent with its labeling.

randge  posted on  2011-03-15   20:06:16 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#2. To: TwentyTwelve (#0)

Glad you posted this, I saw it earlier and found out the guy was not a nuclear expert at all but yet still wanted to throw his two cents out there for some odd reason. If no real nuclear expert is willing to respond at MIT, I don't know why a "FINANCIAL RISK MANAGEMENT" researcher would do it.

God is always good!

RickyJ  posted on  2011-03-15   20:07:37 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#3. To: randge (#1)

english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/03/78387.html

URGENT: Fuel rods damage at Fukushima's 2 reactors estimated at 70%, 33%

TOKYO, March 16, Kyodo

An estimated 70 percent of the nuclear fuel rods have been damaged at the troubled No. 1 reactor of the Fukushima No.1 nuclear power plant and 33 percent at the No. 2 reactor, Tokyo Electric Power Co. said Wednesday.

The reactors' cores are believed to have partially melted with their cooling functions lost after Friday's magnitude 9.0 earthquake rocked Fukushima Prefecture and other areas in northeastern and eastern Japan.

==Kyodo

TwentyTwelve  posted on  2011-03-15   20:09:39 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#4. To: RickyJ (#2)

Conflicting Iodide Message | NBC Bay Area

TwentyTwelve  posted on  2011-03-15   20:37:41 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#5. To: TwentyTwelve (#4)

I don't trust anything this affirmative action hire has to say.

Jethro Tull  posted on  2011-03-15   20:46:15 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#6. To: TwentyTwelve (#0)

This is down from a few hours ago -

www.ustream.tv/channel/geiger-counter-tokyo

The reporting is all over the board on this event.

Somewhere in Kenya, a village is missing its idiot.

Lod  posted on  2011-03-15   20:52:58 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#7. To: Lod (#6) (Edited)

A background CPM of 10 is considered normal. So the present 17.45 is less than twice the normal. Not that bad right now.

BTW, this is a big reason I don't believe that a mini-nuke was used at the WTC towers. It would be impossible to avoid sky high radiation readings which would have given them away.

God is always good!

RickyJ  posted on  2011-03-15   21:07:22 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#8. To: TwentyTwelve (#4)

Dr. Benjamin said although she wasn't aware of people stocking up, she did not think that would be an overreaction. She said it was right to be prepared.

It probably isn't a bad idea. But they should not be taken unless there is a real presence of radiation.

God is always good!

RickyJ  posted on  2011-03-15   21:16:22 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#9. To: Lod (#6) (Edited)

16.78 cpm now. I hope it keeps dropping for them.

God is always good!

RickyJ  posted on  2011-03-15   21:58:38 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#10. To: RickyJ, all, 4 (#7)

BTW, this is a big reason I don't believe that a mini-nuke was used at the WTC towers. It would be impossible to avoid sky high radiation readings which would have given them away.

No. There were not any nukes of any sort used on the WTC buildings.

Period. End of story! for me, anyway.

There wold have been so many radioactive read-outs to show the same, that it would have been immediately known to everyone.

Somewhere in Kenya, a village is missing its idiot.

Lod  posted on  2011-03-15   22:23:19 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#11. To: All (#6)

If we believe this report, it's down to 17.70 and falling.

Thank God,

Somewhere in Kenya, a village is missing its idiot.

Lod  posted on  2011-03-15   22:27:05 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#12. To: TwentyTwelve (#3) (Edited)

An estimated 70 percent of the nuclear fuel rods have been damaged at the troubled No. 1 reactor of the Fukushima No.1 nuclear power plant and 33 percent at the No. 2 reactor, Tokyo Electric Power Co. said Wednesday.

Thanks for the update.

I just posted this on another thread where German news is reporting this report and says that the fuel is puddling at the base of the reactors. They also report that Reactor 1 containment is damaged, and the reactors 1-4 are in danger of a core melt.

It is a violation of Natural Law to use this document in a manner inconsistent with its labeling.

randge  posted on  2011-03-15   22:29:55 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#13. To: randge (#12) (Edited)

I just posted this on another thread where German news is reporting this report and says that the fuel is puddling at the base of the reactors. They also report that Reactor 1 containment is damaged, and the 1-4 are in danger of a core melt.

The incident is far from over.

english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/03/78374.html

Fukushima nuke plant situation 'worsened considerably': think tank

WASHINGTON, March 15, Kyodo

The situation at the quake-hit Fukushima No. 1 nuclear plant in northeastern Japan ''has worsened considerably,'' the Institute for Science and International Security said in a statement released Tuesday.

Referring to fresh explosions that occurred earlier in the day at the site and problems in a pool storing spent nuclear fuel rods, the Washington-based think tank said, ''This accident can no longer be viewed as a level 4 on the International Nuclear and Radiological Events scale that ranks events from 1 to 7.''

Noting that a level 4 incident involves ''only local radiological consequences,'' it said the ongoing crisis is ''now closer to a level 6, and it may unfortunately reach a level 7'' -- a worst case scenario with extensive health and environmental consequences.

''The international community should increase assistance to Japan to both contain the emergency at the reactors and to address the wider contamination. We need to find a solution together,'' it said.

==Kyodo

TwentyTwelve  posted on  2011-03-15   22:43:31 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#14. To: TwentyTwelve (#13)

The incident is far from over

'Rumor has it it's the end of paradise...'

"if I have all faith so as to move mountains, but do not have love, I am nothing." 1 Cor 12:31—13:13
"I don't know where Bin Laden is. I truly am not that concerned about him"
George W, Bush, 3/13/02 http://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2002/03/20020313-8.html

Artisan  posted on  2011-03-16   2:50:00 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


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