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Science/Tech
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Title: Best predictor yet of major earthquakes?
Source: [None]
URL Source: http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/26773/?p1=Blogs
Published: May 22, 2011
Author: Physics arXiv Blog
Post Date: 2011-05-22 04:59:24 by Tatarewicz
Keywords: None
Views: 113
Comments: 4

Atmosphere Above Japan Heated Rapidly Before M9 Earthquake

Infrared emissions above the epicenter increased dramatically in the days before the devastating earthquake in Japan, say scientists.

Geologists have long puzzled over anecdotal reports of strange atmospheric phenomena in the days before big earthquakes. But good data to back up these stories has been hard to come by.

In recent years, however, various teams have set up atmospheric monitoring stations in earthquake zones and a number of satellites are capable of sending back data about the state of the upper atmosphere and the ionosphere during an earthquake.

Last year, we looked at some fascinating data from the DEMETER spacecraft showing a significant increase in ultra-low frequency radio signals before the magnitude 7 Haiti earthquake in January 2010

Today, Dimitar Ouzounov at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Centre in Maryland and a few buddies present the data from the Great Tohoku earthquake which devastated Japan on 11 March. Their results, although preliminary, are eye-opening.

They say that before the M9 earthquake, the total electron content of the ionosphere increased dramatically over the epicentre, reaching a maximum three days before the quake struck.

At the same time, satellite observations showed a big increase in infrared emissions from above the epicentre, which peaked in the hours before the quake. In other words, the atmosphere was heating up.

These kinds of observations are consistent with an idea called the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling mechanism. The thinking is that in the days before an earthquake, the great stresses in a fault as it is about to give cause the releases large amounts of radon.

The radioactivity from this gas ionises the air on a large scale and this has a number of knock on effects. Since water molecules are attracted to ions in the air, ionisation triggers the large scale condensation of water.

But the process of condensation also releases heat and it is this that causes infrared emissions. "Our first results show that on March 8th a rapid increase of emitted infrared radiation was observed from the satellite data," say Ouzounov and co.

These emissions go on to effect the ionosphere and its total electron content.

It certainly makes sense that the lithosphere, atmosphere and ionosphere are coupled in a way that can be measured when one of them is perturbed. The question is to what extent the new evidence backs up this idea.

The Japan earthquake is the largest to have struck the island in modern times and will certainly turn out to be among the best studied. If good evidence of this relationship doesn't emerge from this data, other opportunities will be few and far between.

Ref: arxiv.org/abs/1105.2841: Atmosphere-Ionosphere Response to the M9 Tohoku Earthquake Revealed by Joined Satellite and Ground Observations. Preliminary Results.

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#1. To: All (#0) (Edited)

From 84 comments:

Earthquakes and ionoshpheric disturbance (Phat)

Anyone interested in learning about this issue and related ones of ionospheric earthquake precursors should read "Ionospheric Precursors of Earthquakes" by Sergey Pulinets, Kirill Boyarchuk (Springer, 2004).

In short, there is an often observed effect on the F layers of the ionosphere where the critical frequency, the highest frequency radio wave that will reflect rather than penetrate the ionosphere, changes. The critical frequency, known in plasma physics as the plasma frequency, depends on the extent of ionization which is caused by some effect (which one is disputed) where tectonic stresses induce EM heating which both ionize and heat the ionosphere.

The biggest problem is all measurements are after the fact. No one has successfully predicted an earthquake by distinguishing any of this from normal activity beforehand.

More from same blogger:

Today, Gene Stanley and pals at Boston University present a new quake prediction approach. Instead of studying the properties of individual earthquakes, these guys have compared the patterns of quakes at different locations in Japan. They then create a network in which they link locations with similar patterns (see picture above).

That could turn out to be a powerful approach. One reason why earthquake science is so complex is that future quakes depend crucially on the history of quakes in that location.

To understand why, a good analogy is with forest fires, which also follow a power law in their size distribution. It's obvious that the size of a forest fire does not depend on the size of the match that starts it. Instead, the way the fire spreads is determined largely by the network of connections between the trees. If there is no connection, the fire cannot spread.

So the size of a forest fire depends crucially on the history of tree growth (something that could be measured in principle but not in practice).

Many seismologists believe a similar process explains the size distribution of earthquakes. An earthquake becomes large if, at the moment it begins, the network of faults allows it to spread. So the size of an earthquake depends on the history of the fault network.

But while this network approach has revolutionised ideas about how earthquakes occur, it has done little for earthquake prediction on the scale of days.

Of course, seismologists have long studied whether regions with similar pasts will have similar futures. In the language of physics, these guys want to know whether the time series of events in the past is a predictor of the times series in the future.

The answer is a qualified yes. If you live in a region that has experienced big earthquakes in the past then it's good bet you'll get them in the future. However, the data does not allow predictions on the scale we're interested in here.

What Stanley and co have done is to apply a network approach to the study of these time series. So they've identified regions in Japan with similar earthquake histories and then mapped out how these areas are linked to each other geographically.

The result is a network that reflects the geographical structure of the fault zone it describes. That's never been done before using network science.

The question it raises, of course, is whether a network approach to earthquake histories will be any more predictive than the traditional analysis of time series.

Stanley and co raise the idea of improving earthquake prediction early in their paper but they studiously avoid discussing the impact their approach may have on earthquake forecasts.

It's an omission that speaks volumes. But this approach may still help clarify and reveal other secrets of earthquake science.

(more comments)

A recent interview with Prof. Pulinets can be viewed here: www.larouchepac.com/node/17944 Among other things, he makes clear in this interview that it is possible to know that an earthquake will occur sufficiently ahead of time to be able to move people out of harms way. (Isand)

Re: Earthquakes and ionoshpheric disturbance

"HAARP can be used for many purposes. Enormous quantities of energy can be controlled by manipulating the electrical characteristics of the atmosphere. If used as a military weapon this can have a devastating impact on an enemy. HAARP can deliver millions of times more energy to a given area than any other conventional transmitter. The energy can also be aimed at a moving target which should constitute a potential anti-missile system."

"Another damaging consequence of HAARP is the occurrence of holes in the ionosphere caused by the powerful radio beams. The ionosphere protects us from incoming cosmic radiation. The hope is that the holes will fill again, but our experience of change in the ozone layer points in the other direction. This means substantial holes in the ionosphere that protects us."

From an official EU report 14 January 1999 ... check it out...

transitiontownsireland.ni...haarp-an-eu-report-on-the (AlexJD)

Brooks Agnew has a YouTube interview where he described doing subsurface mineral exploration from satellites with a 30 watt radiotomography transmission. He had 100% accuracy and success and was able to scan the ore body and map the ore grade from satellite. After the Haiti earthquake I researched mineral exploration and mineral rights purchased in Dominican Republic and Haiti. Eurasian Minerals had purchased 20% of the mineral rights just before the earthquake and the World Bank met the day before the earthquake to consider the loan request by Eurasian Minerals to develop Haiti mining projects, but the committee did not vote to fund the projects. The day after the earthquake the World bank funding committee met and voted to fund the Eurasian Minerals portfolio. On the Eurasian Minerals Home Page are listed the five biggest mining projects now underway and coincidentally a HAARP facility is located near each project. Haiti: US-Arecibo, Puerto Rico; Norway: UK-Tromso, Norway; Northern Turkey: UK-Larnaca, Cyprus; Tien Shan Gold Belt, ?US-Dushanbe, Tajikstan; Sumatra: UK-Australia. So it is clear that the locations of the HAARP facilities are related to big global mining projects by the US and UK.

(Brooks A. Agnew, PhD is a commercial scientist and engineer with more than 17 years of field research in Earth Tomography. Agnew said that HAARP, the High Frequency Active Auroral Research Project uses a billion Watts of energy, which he says would definitely be capable of creating earthquakes. I forgot to mention that he had accidentally caused a 4.0 earthquake back in 1987 using 30 Watt earth tomography ELF waves while looking for oil in Oregon.

(Brooks Agnew, a radiotomography oil/gas/mineral exploration scientist, stated "In 1983 I did radio tomography with 30 Watts [ELF signal] looking for oil in the ground . I found 26 oil wells in a 9 state area with 100% accuracy." He was able to identify the minerals present from the frequency of the returning signal, and the size of the ore body. By scanning across the ore body from satellite, he could map the ore grade of the deposit spacially. Accidentally causing a small earthquake with a 30 Watt signal, he said HAARP, the High Frequency Active Auroral Research Project uses a billion Watts of energy, which he says would definitely be capable of creating earthquakes.

Interestingly, during the month of June 2008 alone, the USGS recorded over 200 earthquakes, which occurred globally along major tectonic plate boundaries at a uniform depth of 10km, which has been suspected as the result of HAARP tests. Fracturing and folding along the plate boundaries causes oil and gas, outgassing from the mantle, to collect in structural deposits. HAARP is often associated with mineral deposits.( leurenmoret)

I make radiation detectors, and happened to have had one with me in the Santa Cruz Mountains close to Loma Prieta, after the earthquake. My niece was playing with it, and discovered highly elevated radiation levels on the screen of a television in the house. I have previously observed that radon daughters attached to particulates in the air will concentrate on a positively charged CRT. The decay rate of the swabs I took were consistent with radon, and I reported this to USGS and Caltech - but no one seemed very interested. I made a few proposals for predictive monitoring systems without getting very far. I think USGS was cutting budgets during that period.

When in Tokyo last month I was hoping to find the elevated levels on the rooftops were from atmospheric washout of radon daughters. Still trying to fully characterize the dust but it's clear now that it is not just radon progeny. ( Dan Sythe)

I am a geoscientist and have been on 20 speaking tours to Japan since 2000 warning about the danger of nuclear power plants and major earthquakes. [See Japan Times 2004: "Japan's Deadly Game of Nuclear Roulette" search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/fl20040523x2.html] Because of its dynamic tectonic setting, Japan has a magnitude 8 or greater earthquake every 5 years - sitting on the junction of 4 tectonic plates (Philippine plate pushing N, North American plate pushing S, Pacific plate pushing W, and Asian plate subducting under Japan E). Japan has a long history of large magnitude earthquakes and tsunamis and their destructive effects. However, in the past 150+ years that records have been kept, there has never been a magnitude 9-9.1 earthquake. The Tohoku earthquake is unprecedented in Japan's history, and released the energy equivalent to 1 million 30 kt Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombs. A HAARP signature is historic and unprecedented destructive energy in tornadoes, earthquakes, weather modification etc. There is plenty of forensic evidence emerging that the great Tohoku earthquake was a HAARP event, and this article will be another piece of documented evidence when published. (leurenmoret)

There are plenty of records showing the growth of radon emanation from active tectonic faults before earthquakes (for example, for Kobe earthquake in 1995). You can read the book 3. Khilyuk, L. F., Chillingar, G. V., Robertson, J. O. Jr., Endres, B., Gas migration. Events preceding earthquakes, 2000, Gulf Publiching Company, Houston, Texas, 390 p. Radon does not go up to the atmosphere, it is 6 times heavier than air. What it is doing - is ionization of air molecules by alpha particles emitted during its decay. New ions become the centers of water vapor condensation. Water molecules condensing on ions release the latent heat of condensation - and this is the source of thermal anomalies observed by satellite. Anomalies in ionosphere are formed due to modification of air conductivity due to formation of heavy ion clusters in atmosphere. (Pulse1549)

Supposing the heat-energy shown comes from deep below, the heat in the illustration has to pass (mostly unhindered) through deep ocean and warm up the air mass. This means radiation. Neutrino rad passes through without proplems ... and is known a problem in nuclear pwr stations: irradiated air kills the personnel rapidly if its not blown out constantly - via the 400ft smokestacks. (They do not burn oil or coal, do they?)

Now what could be a source of such neutrino flow? Check this wp.me/pwIAV-19

then this www.youtube.com/watch?v=4rc37dRCI4w (NorthBeam)

Tatarewicz  posted on  2011-05-22   5:10:21 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#2. To: Tatarewicz (#0)

Title: Best predictor yet of major earthquakes?

It's not Camping...

reaching a maximum three days before the quake struck.

Can a large city be evacuated in 3 days? No way.

Would they even tell the citizens that something was about to happen? No way.

.


Click for Privacy and Preparedness files
“Satanism is about walking against the grain and going against what is considered acceptable by society. Therefore, it is impossible to make it socially acceptable, because when it is accepted by society it is no longer Satanism.” -Unknown

PSUSA  posted on  2011-05-22   6:52:14 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#3. To: PSUSA (#2)

Don't have to evacuate. Just be ready to head for park or other open space away from falling buildings. It's not like a forest fire that engulfs a town.

Tatarewicz  posted on  2011-05-22   8:04:50 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#4. To: Tatarewicz (#3)

It's more of the aftermath I was thinking of. I should have made that clear.

If NOLA is any indication, it will be shtf. Lock and load time. The Japanese behaved. Hyphenated americans won't.

.


Click for Privacy and Preparedness files
“Satanism is about walking against the grain and going against what is considered acceptable by society. Therefore, it is impossible to make it socially acceptable, because when it is accepted by society it is no longer Satanism.” -Unknown

PSUSA  posted on  2011-05-22   8:51:25 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


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