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Title: Sun's Output to Fall ... Leading to a Mini Ice Age?
Source:
Washington's Blog
URL Source: http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2011 ... -fall-leading-to-mini-ice.html
Published: Jun 19, 2011
Author: Not Given
Post Date: 2011-06-19 19:04:06 by Original_Intent
Ping List: *Agriculture-Environment* Subscribe to *Agriculture-Environment*
Keywords: Global, warming, cooling, Chicken Little
Views: 453
Comments: 32
Sun's Output to Fall ... Leading to a Mini Ice Age? The Register notes: What may be the science story of the century is breaking this evening, as heavyweight US solar physicists announce that the Sun appears to be headed into a lengthy spell of low activity, which could mean that the Earth – far from facing a global warming problem – is actually headed into a mini Ice Age. *** The announcement made on 14 June (18:00 UK time) comes from scientists at the US National Solar Observatory (NSO) and US Air Force Research Laboratory. Three different analyses of the Sun's recent behaviour all indicate that a period of unusually low solar activity may be about to begin. *** This could have major implications for the Earth's climate. According to a statement issued by the NSO, announcing the research: As NASA notes: During the Maunder Minimum and for periods either side of it, many European rivers which are ice-free today – including the Thames – routinely froze over, allowing ice skating and even for armies to march across them in some cases. "This is highly unusual and unexpected," says Dr Frank Hill of the NSO. "But the fact that three completely different views of the Sun point in the same direction is a powerful indicator that the sunspot cycle may be going into hibernation." *** According to the NSO: In parallel with this comes research from the US Air Force's studies of the solar corona. *** "Cycle 24 started out late and slow and may not be strong enough to create a rush to the poles, indicating we'll see a very weak solar maximum in 2013, if at all. If the rush to the poles fails to complete, this creates a tremendous dilemma for the theorists ... No one knows what the Sun will do in that case." According to the collective wisdom of the NSO, another Maunder Minimum may very well be on the cards. "If we are right," summarises Hill, "this could be the last solar maximum we'll see for a few decades. That would affect everything from space exploration to Earth's climate." *** The big consequences of a major solar calm spell, however, would be climatic. The next few generations of humanity might not find themselves trying to cope with global warming but rather with a significant cooling. This could overturn decades of received wisdom on such things as CO2 emissions, and lead to radical shifts in government policy worldwide. The Telegraph confirms: Sunspot activity, which follows an 11-year cycle, is due to peak in 2013 after which it will start to wane slightly. But astronomers think the next upswing will be less intensive than normal, or could fail to happen at all. That could affect weather on Earth because low solar activity has been linked to low global temperatures in the past. Between 1645 and 1715 almost no sunspots were observed, a solar period which came to be called the Maunder Minimum. During those decades Europe suffered frequent unusually harsh winters, and the time was later termed the Little Ice Age. *** Three studies, presented at a meeting of the American Astronomical Society's solar physics division, all point towards declining sunspot activity into the next decade. Frank Hill, of the National Solar Observatory in New Mexico, who worked on one of the studies, said: "The fact that there are three separate lines of evidence all pointing in the same direction is very compelling." But Joanna Haigh professor of atmospheric physics at Imperial College London, said global warming could override any cooling effect on the Earth's climate. However, she cautioned: "Even if the predictions are correct, the effect of global warming will outstrip the sun’s ability to cool even in the coldest scenario. "And in any case, the cooling effect is only ever temporary. When the sun’s activity returns to normal, the greenhouse gases won't have gone away." And Agence France-Presse reports: For years, scientists have been predicting the Sun would by around 2012 move into solar maximum, a period of intense flares and sunspot activity, but lately a curious calm has suggested quite the opposite. According to three studies released in the United States on Tuesday, experts believe the familiar sunspot cycle may be shutting down and heading toward a pattern of inactivity unseen since the 17th century. The signs include a missing jet stream, fading spots, and slower activity near the poles, said experts from the National Solar Observatory and Air Force Research Laboratory. "This is highly unusual and unexpected," said Frank Hill, associate director of the NSO's Solar Synoptic Network, as the findings of the three studies were presented at the annual meeting of the American Astronomical Society's Solar Physics Division in Las Cruces, New Mexico. "But the fact that three completely different views of the Sun point in the same direction is a powerful indicator that the sunspot cycle may be going into hibernation." Solar activity tends to rise and fall every 11 years or so. The solar maximum and solar minimum each mark about half the interval of the magnetic pole reversal on the Sun, which happens every 22 years. Hill said the current cycle, number 24, "may be the last normal one for some time and the next one, cycle 25, may not happen for some time. "This is important because the solar cycle causes space weather which affects modern technology and may contribute to climate change," he told reporters. Experts are now probing whether this period of inactivity could be a second Maunder Minimum, which was a 70-year period when hardly any sunspots were observed between 1645-1715, a period known as the "Little Ice Age." "If we are right, this could be the last solar maximum we'll see for a few decades. That would affect everything from space exploration to Earth's climate," said Hill. This trend could explain why we haven't experienced any warming recently. As AFP notes: "Recent solar 11-year cycles are associated empirically with changes in global surface temperature of 0.1 Celsius," said Judith Lean, a solar physicist with the US Naval Research Laboratory. If the cycle were to stop or slow down, the small fluctuation in temperature would do the same, eliminating the slightly cooler effect of a solar minimum compared to the warmer solar maximum. The phenomenon was witnessed during the descending phase of the last solar cycle. This "cancelled part of the greenhouse gas warming of the period 2000-2008, causing the net global surface temperature to remain approximately flat -- and leading to the big debate of why the Earth hadn't (been) warming in the past decade," Lean, who was not involved in the three studies presented, said in an email to AFP. A study in the March 2010 issue of Geophysical Research Letters explored what effect an extended solar minimum might have, and found no more than a 0.3 Celsius dip by 2100 compared to normal solar fluctuations. "A new Maunder-type solar activity minimum cannot offset the global warming caused by human greenhouse gas emissions," wrote authors Georg Feulner and Stefan Rahmstorf, noting that forecasts by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have found a range of 3.7 Celsius to 4.5 Celsius rise by this century's end compared to the latter half of the 20th century. "Moreover, any offset of global warming due to a grand minimum of solar activity would be merely a temporary effect, since the distinct solar minima during the last millennium typically lasted for only several decades or a century at most." 
An immediate question is whether this slowdown presages a second Maunder Minimum, a 70-year period with virtually no sunspots [which occurred] during 1645-1715.
Early records of sunspots indicate that the Sun went through a period of inactivity in the late 17th century. Very few sunspots were seen on the Sun from about 1645 to 1715. Although the observations were not as extensive as in later years, the Sun was in fact well observed during this time and this lack of sunspots is well documented. This period of solar inactivity also corresponds to a climatic period called the "Little Ice Age" when rivers that are normally ice-free froze and snow fields remained year-round at lower altitudes. There is evidence that the Sun has had similar periods of inactivity in the more distant past.
Penn and Livingston observed that the average field strength declined about 50 gauss per year during Cycle 23 and now in Cycle 24. They also observed that spot temperatures have risen exactly as expected for such changes in the magnetic field. If the trend continues, the field strength will drop below the 1,500 gauss threshold and spots will largely disappear as the magnetic field is no longer strong enough to overcome convective forces on the solar surface.
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#1. To: All (#0)
(Edited)
The comments on the blog were heart warming. The Warmistas were out in force busily denying any counter evidence to their secular deity.
You know I am not on to buy into the bullshit of man made global warming... the climatoligists email leaks was enough to solidify my opinion on that matter... But natural warming and cooling... That has always been on my mind... It has been 120 in my part of texas for days... every day I check my outside thermometer ...every day I check weather underground.... and every day after checking my readings I go back inside and call the computer a fucking liar. It is hot here... hotter then normal... They sun the suns output is diminishing... Thems are some fucking liars.
Thanks for this timely post. You're right about the warmistas. They're blogging hammer and tongs right now, claiming that the Maunder effect will be "minimal." www.skepticalscience.com/...under-minimum-levels.html At this point in time, though, they are getting "heat" back in the form of reader comments.
It is a violation of Natural Law to use this document in a manner inconsistent with its labeling.
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The relationship between morality and liberty is a directly proportional one. "Only a virtuous people are capable of freedom. As nations become corrupt and vicious, they have more need of masters." ~ Ben Franklin "For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth, to know the worst, and to provide for it.” ~ Patrick Henry
TBH, I think we're already there, when my country got two subarctic winters in a row, and experienced slight frost this very JUNE!
So the blackman orders a pint of of the Black Stuff in Hayes' pub in Moneygall, he hands the barman a Fiver and says; "I HOPE there is some CHANGE with that!" :-P
The Maunder Minimum almost coincided with the Little Ice Age, but that appears to be coincidence. The Little Ice Age was a feature of what is believed to be regular and cyclical waves in the general earth temperature; the precise reason for this is unknown, but the alternate peaks appear to be roughly 500 years apart. For example: high point, roughly 10 BC, northern Europe is warm enough for Roman legions to spread out as far as the British Isles; low point, approx 500 AD, the Roman Empire contracts and is broken up by northern tribes; high point, approx 1100 AD, ice melts in the North Sea, enabling Vikings to raid Britain and Gaul; low point, approx 1500 AD, the Little Ice Age, chill weather puts an end to the Viking power and encourages more indoor activity leading to the Renaissance; and now again a high point, circa 2000 AD, which unfortunately is compounded by a lot of human activity that has affected the climate. These highs and lows were not sudden but were gradually entered and tapered off. A reduced number of sun spots might actually benefit us, as it means less interference with earthly electricity such as radio waves.
Geeeeez - is that Terlingua?
Thems are some fucking liars. Yeah, it's hot in Cypress too. But, hell, I've got semitropical plants that have been growing on this property in this part of Texas for 20 years that got wiped by multiple frosts that we had this winter in the Houston area. It was colder than I've seen it in my time here. You gotta remember: record heat or cold, even for an extended period of time, does not a climate trend make.
It is a violation of Natural Law to use this document in a manner inconsistent with its labeling.
Exactly a trend is established by multiple years. And the current trend is overall lower temperatures. Last summer we had more days over 100 than normal average but fewer days over 90. So, on balance it was a cooler than normal summer despite the 100+ days. I've noticed it in my garden. As a gardener I'm very sensitive to climate because some of the stuff I grow is borderline for my zone - particularly some melon varieties. The last 2 years I got very few good melons compared to the prior 8 I have lived at this location. Last Spring and then again this Spring we have been cooler and wetter than normal. This year for the first time in 27+ years the Roses were not open for Rose Festival. They had to delay the Rose judging for a week because they had like one bloom in the test garden. We are still about 10 inches above our normal moderately high rainfall of 34 inches. In a normal average spring we have 26 days of 70 or above by June 1st. This year we had 6. We had no days of 80 or above. Montana was at 200% of normal snowpack in some areas this past winter. As witnessed by the Missouri River flooding. And the high peaks haven't started really melting yet. Overall the last ten years have been trending cooler not warmer. And that has coincided with decreased solar activity. Whatever contortions the Warmistas go through to resurrect And yes climate is cyclical, and there are points in the geologic record when CO2 levels have been higher, and time periods, going back millions of years, when average temperatures were much warmer. The attempt to create a correlation between climate and the minuscule additional CO2 created by human activity is so tenuous and gaseous as to be laughable.
It is nevertheless interesting to note that the Warmistas attempt to excise the "Little Ice Age" from the climate record as it contradicts their theories and models. Q. How do you know when a period of global cooling has ended? A. It gets warmer.
Damn hot here in North Texas, too. Compare and contrast with the snowfall still on the ground in Montana and the recent snow that will add to the flooding on the Missouri River and the Fort Calhoun nuclear reactor.
__________________________________________________________ What about 2012? I thought the sun was going to go berserk and release all sorts of radiation at us next year, or so say the end of the world folks.
God is always good!
Glad they finally joined the party. I've been saying this on this forum since I joined. All the scientists I talk to have been saying at least a Dalton type minimum (1850s). Maunder type was the Dark Ages. Not good at all. Here is an old post over on Watts Up With That. Cycle 5 began in May 1798 with a smoothed sunspot number of 3.2 and ended in December 1810. Guest post by David Archibald Solar Cycle 24 is now over a year old, so it is appropriate to see how it is ramping up. Solar Cycle 24 was a late starter, about three and a half years later than the average of the strong cycles in the late 20th century and almost three year later than the weak cycles of the late 19th century. It was almost as late as Solar Cycle 5, the first half of the Dalton Minimum. The last few months have seen it ramp up relatively rapidly. [Note: Solar Cycle 22 and 23 are overlaid on solar cycle 3 and 4 above to show similarity] Plotting up the last three solar cycles relative to the Dalton Minimum, another solar minimum is not precluded by the data to date. With Solar Cycle 23 ending up at twelve and a half years long, applying Friis-Christenson and Lassen theory to the temperature record of Hanover, New Hampshire results in a two degree centigrade decline in the annual average temperature at this location over the expected twelve years of Solar Cycle 24, from December 2009 to late 2021. Given some record low monthly averages in the northeast US in the recent summer, and the current cold winter, this cooling is well under way.
"So this is how liberty dies, with thunderous applause." -Padme, Star Wars III, Sith
Ooops forgot to ping everyone to my post above. Wouldn't want you to miss it.
"So this is how liberty dies, with thunderous applause." -Padme, Star Wars III, Sith
Heh, heh, heh. ;-)
Well, shoot: I tolerate the heat pretty well. I get tired of balancing the price of running the heater thermostat in the winter against staying warm.
__________________________________________________________ Heat can be cheap with a wood stove. Plenty of forest land to get all the wood you want.
God is always good!
LOL I could show you better ways to keep warm!
"So this is how liberty dies, with thunderous applause." -Padme, Star Wars III, Sith
Unless you live in tree worshiping California. "So this is how liberty dies, with thunderous applause." -Padme, Star Wars III, Sith
The sun may be on a path to low activity, but (as we saw recently) it can still kick out a CME. When will we hear from Al Gore on this?
Thanks for the ping, farmfriend. Nice fuel for those office arguments!
It is a violation of Natural Law to use this document in a manner inconsistent with its labeling.
deleted
The relationship between morality and liberty is a directly proportional one. "Only a virtuous people are capable of freedom. As nations become corrupt and vicious, they have more need of masters." ~ Ben Franklin "For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth, to know the worst, and to provide for it.” ~ Patrick Henry
And squeezing cows really hard.
“I do not love the bright sword for its sharpness, nor the arrow for its swiftness, nor the warrior for his glory. I love only that which they defend” - J.R.R. Tolkien
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The relationship between morality and liberty is a directly proportional one. "Only a virtuous people are capable of freedom. As nations become corrupt and vicious, they have more need of masters." ~ Ben Franklin "For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth, to know the worst, and to provide for it.” ~ Patrick Henry
"So this is how liberty dies, with thunderous applause." -Padme, Star Wars III, Sith
Termites are the way to go. They produce more methane than cows.
"So this is how liberty dies, with thunderous applause." -Padme, Star Wars III, Sith
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The relationship between morality and liberty is a directly proportional one. "Only a virtuous people are capable of freedom. As nations become corrupt and vicious, they have more need of masters." ~ Ben Franklin "For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth, to know the worst, and to provide for it.” ~ Patrick Henry
It is produced in their guts so I assume so though with cows it is burps not farts so you'll have to ask an entomologist.
"So this is how liberty dies, with thunderous applause." -Padme, Star Wars III, Sith
deleted
The relationship between morality and liberty is a directly proportional one. "Only a virtuous people are capable of freedom. As nations become corrupt and vicious, they have more need of masters." ~ Ben Franklin "For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth, to know the worst, and to provide for it.” ~ Patrick Henry
The current temp outside my house according to my thermometer at 7:13 PM is 100 Fahrenheit.
At 5:49 PDT it is overcast and 74 degrees F, humidity 43%, and windspeed is 0.2 mph. In short, just about ideal.
#2. To: Original_Intent (#1)
#3. To: Original_Intent (#1)
#4. To: titorite (#2)
#5. To: Original_Intent (#0)
#6. To: Original_Intent (#0)
#7. To: titorite (#2)
It has been 120 in my part of texas for days..
"Satan / Cheney in "08" 
#8. To: titorite (#2)
They sun the suns output is diminishing...
#9. To: randge, titorite, irishthatcherite, Shoonra (#8)
You gotta remember: record heat or cold, even for an extended period of time, does not a climate trend make.
THE CARBON TAX Glowbull Warming it ain't happening.
#10. To: Shoonra, farmfriend (#6)
The Maunder Minimum almost coincided with the Little Ice Age, but that appears to be coincidence. The Little Ice Age was a feature of what is believed to be regular and cyclical waves in the general earth temperature; the precise reason for this is unknown, but the alternate peaks appear to be roughly 500 years apart.
#11. To: titorite (#2)
"This man is Jesus,” shouted one man, spilling his Guinness as Barack Obama began his inaugural address. “When will he come to Kenya to save us?"
-Schweizerische Schuetzenzeitung (Swiss Shooting Federation) April, 1941
#12. To: Original_Intent (#0)
#13. To: Original_Intent (#0)
What may be the science story of the century is breaking this evening, as heavyweight US solar physicists announce that the Sun appears to be headed into a lengthy spell of low activity, which could mean that the Earth – far from facing a global warming problem – is actually headed into a mini Ice Age.
Solar Cycle 24 Update
Posted on February 2, 2010 by Anthony Watts 
#14. To: X-15, randge, titorite, irishthatcherite, Shoonra, Eric Stratton, *Agriculture-Environment* (#13)
#15. To: farmfriend (#14)
Wouldn't want you to miss it.
#16. To: farmfriend (#13)
"This man is Jesus,” shouted one man, spilling his Guinness as Barack Obama began his inaugural address. “When will he come to Kenya to save us?"
-Schweizerische Schuetzenzeitung (Swiss Shooting Federation) April, 1941
#17. To: X-15 (#16)
#18. To: X-15 (#16)
Well, shoot: I tolerate the heat pretty well. I get tired of balancing the price of running the heater thermostat in the winter against staying warm.
#19. To: RickyJ (#17)
Heat can be cheap with a wood stove. Plenty of forest land to get all the wood you want.
#20. To: Original_Intent (#0)
Here is a nightmare scenario. The sun shoots a CME our way frying the electric grid and returning us to the 1800's.
Then the suns activity plummets sending us into a mini-ice-age. With no electricity to provide warmth and no large scale farming, vast numbers of people starve or freeze to death.
Once you go armadillo, you never go back.
#21. To: Original_Intent (#0)
#22. To: farmfriend (#14)
#23. To: farmfriend, All (#13)
#24. To: Eric Stratton (#23)
Quick, everyone start farting and spraying aerosols.
#25. To: Turtle (#24)
#26. To: Eric Stratton (#23)
Seriously though, I'm about as worried about being frozen out from a new ice age as I am of being swalled up alive by a giant ant.
THEM!
#27. To: Turtle, Eric Stratton (#24)
And squeezing cows really hard.
#28. To: farmfriend (#27)
#29. To: Eric Stratton (#28)
(Edited)
By farting?
#30. To: farmfriend (#29)
#31. To: Original_Intent (#0)
#32. To: titorite (#31)
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