See other Science/Tech Articles
Title: Are We Alone In the Universe? New Analysis Says Maybe
Source:
[None]
URL Source: http://www.livescience.com/15222-universe-analysis.html
Published: Jul 26, 2011
Author: Natalie Wolchover, Life's Little Mysteri
Post Date: 2011-07-26 11:36:56 by Ada
Keywords: None
Views: 271
Comments: 24
Scientists engaged in the search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI) work under the assumption that there is, in fact, intelligent life out there to be found. A new analysis may crush their optimism. To calculate the likelihood that they'll make radio contact with extraterrestrials, SETI scientists use what's known as the Drake Equation. Formulated in the 1960s by Frank Drake of the SETI Institute in California, it approximates the number of radio-transmitting civilizations in our galaxy at any one time by multiplying a string of factors: the number of stars, the fraction that have planets, the fraction of those that are habitable, the probability of life arising on such planets, its likelihood of becoming intelligent and so on. The values of almost all these factors are highly speculative. Nonetheless, Drake and others have plugged in their best guesses, and estimate that there are about 10,000 tech-savvy civilizations in the galaxy currently sending signals our way — a number that has led some scientists to predict that we'll detect alien signals within two decades. Is Jesus God? Y-Jesus.com Discover the Evidence From Scholars About Jesus' Claims to be God What is Quantum Jumping? www.QuantumJumping.com Discover Why Thousands of People are "Jumping" to Change Their Life Exercise Your Brain www.lumosity.com Games You Didn't Know Existed to Fight Brain Decline and Aging. Ads by Google Their optimism relies on one factor in particular: In the equation, the probability of life arising on suitably habitable planets (ones with water, rocky surfaces and atmospheres) is almost always taken to be 100 percent. As the reasoning goes, the same fundamental laws apply to the entire universe, and because those laws engendered the genesis of life on Earth — and relatively early in its history at that — they must readily spawn life elsewhere, too. As the Russian astrobiologist Andrei Finkelstein put it at a recent SETI press conference, "the genesis of life is as inevitable as the formation of atoms." [Read: What If Our Solar System Had Formed Somewhere Else?] But in a new paper published on arXiv.org, astrophysicist David Spiegel at Princeton University and physicist Edwin Turner at the University of Tokyo argue that this thinking is dead wrong. Using a statistical method called Bayesian reasoning, they argue that the life here on Earth could be common, or it could be extremely rare — there's no reason to prefer one conclusion over the other. With their new analysis, Spiegel and Turner say they have erased the one Drake factor scientists felt confident about and replaced it with a question mark. While it's true that life arose quickly on Earth (within the planet's first few hundred million years), the researchers point out that if it hadn't done so, there wouldn't have been enough time for intelligent life — humans — to have evolved. So, in effect, we're biased. It took at least 3.5 billion years for intelligent life to evolve on Earth, and the only reason we're able to contemplate the likelihood of life today is that its evolution happened to get started early. This requisite good luck is entirely independent of the actual probability of life emerging on a habitable planet. [Read: Believers in Mysterious Planet Nibiru Await Earth's End] "Although life began on this planet fairly soon after the Earth became habitable, this fact is consistent with … life being arbitrarily rare in the Universe," the authors state. In the paper, they prove this statement mathematically. Their result doesn't mean we're alone — only that there's no reason to think otherwise. "[A] Bayesian enthusiast of extraterrestrial life should be significantly encouraged by the rapid appearance of life on the early Earth but cannot be highly confident on that basis," the authors conclude. Our own existence implies very little about how many other times life has arisen. Two data points rather than just one would make all the difference, the researchers say. If life is found to have arisen independently on Mars, then scientists would be in a much better position to assert that, under the right conditions, the genesis of life is inevitable. This article was provided by Life's Little Mysteries, a sister site to LiveScience.
Post Comment Private Reply Ignore Thread
Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest
#1. To: Ada (#0)
Check your priors. I like McDevitt's view. Sparce-faring civilizations may be common, but they almost never last long enough to meet each other. If humans ever get out there, we'll mostly find ruins.
"Mr. Prime Minister, there is only one important question facing us, and that is the question whether the white race will survive." -- Leonid Brezhnev to James Callahan
No, we're not alone in the universe. But we're such total a_holes that the other planets deliberately stay away from us.
That means the equation is complete B.S.
*Before anyone gets their panties in a bunch, I invite you to compare the number of Irish, Italian, German, and Scandinavian political philosophers who have written on liberty and limited government with the number of English philosophers who published works on the subject" - Vox Day
If there is some sort of "galactic federation" or group that has some ties politically/socially, they most likely have quarantine on the planet that is still so primitive they kill each other and are still caught up in depriving others so they can have more. Yes, I am fairly sure any truly advance race would only observe us at a distance. There is a fairly large group of us, who really give the rest a very bad name and possible reputation in our sphere of influence.
It is forbidden to kill; therefore all murderers are punished unless they kill in large numbers and to the sound of trumpets. Voltaire It is hard to free fools from the chains they revere. Voltaire An ideal form of government is democracy tempered with assassination. Voltaire "If you love wealth more than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, depart from us in peace. We ask not your counsel nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you. May your chains rest lightly upon you and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen." Samuel Adams, (1722-1803)
that made me laugh.
COMMUNISM "IS" PRIMARILY DEFINED AS GOVERNMENT OWNERSHIP
How does mankind define "intelligent life" when we only think we understand such ideas? You see, all mankind can search for is what we know here on Earth to be "life"; this means the only models that can be used are those of obvious characteristics that are commonly understood by the methods and practices we have. It doesn't mean we are intelligent though. And it doesn't mean there are not other characteristics of "life" that we do not know.
"In a free society we're supposed to know the truth," ... "In a society where truth becomes treason, then we're in big trouble. And now, people who are revealing the truth are getting into trouble for it" -- Ron Paul, circa 2010-12-02
So, how can the jews make a buck off of this article?? Who else in the galaxy can they fleece??
We might wish to lower our standards to simply life. Earth is biologically friendly but we have yet to find another such planet.
Intelligence is the ability to recognize differences and similarities. To the extent a sentient being can do that they are intelligent. People often make the mistake of equating technological know-how with intelligence and yet we can point at individuals in other time periods who were towering geniuses who did not have electricity, running water, or an iPad.
Speak for yourself. Most of the assholes I see on Earth are Jews.
God is always good!
We might wish to lower our standards to simply life. Earth is biologically friendly but we have yet to find another such planet. Life is ubiquitous. In every nook and cranny including some of the most inhospitable places on earth we find life - even in the permanent ice of Antarctica or the heat and dryness of the most barren desert. Life adapts, and survives. The photos of Mars coming back from the European Space Agency, which seems to be slightly more honest than the manipulations presented by NASA, show large expanses of green. The green of chlorophyll and hence plant life of some kind - likely mosses and lichens. Of course the question of life on other planets resolves if one accepts as valid, as I do, the photographs that have gotten out which show the signs of intelligent presence on the Moon and Mars. Mars, from little we have been allowed to see, appears to have at one time had a heavier atmosphere and large shallow ocean basins. There is even one NASA photo that got out which shows the petrified form of an ancient type of shelled sea creature called a Crinoid. As well are the large surface features which appear to be buildings and possibly even Arcologies. Photos taken of the lunar surface appear to show large glass structures including what appear may have, at one time in the distant past, been domed cities (glass made in a vaccuum free of atmospheric defects is as strong as steel as a construction material). Because we, on earth, have for a variety of cultural, religious, and now social control reasons developed prejudices which deny the possibility of life beyond our own little grain of sand on the galactic beach proves nothing other than that we are victims of those world views.
that made me laugh. It made me cringe - because therein lies a probability. Assuming for a moment an advanced space faring civilization encountering a primitive warlike planet. What would likely be their view of the people living there and their suitability for civilized exchange? They would have no technology that would be regarded as anything other than obsolete centuries or, and more likely, millenia ago. Their brutish and destructive behavior would, if given a hand up, make them a danger to their more peaceful neighbors. So, likely such a barbaric world would be interdicted, shunned, and watched to make sure the "trailer trash" don't become a danger to others in the neighborhood. They might be a curiosity to anthropologists and ethnologists but likely a strict non-interventionist policy would be imposed and enforced.
Ping to above - meant to include you.
Here's a link to an article on the Crinoid Controversy on Mars complete with photos.
One of those images (1M131201699EFF0500P29933M2M1.jpg) revealed an amazing sight (right). A potential Martian fossil ! A close-up enlargement of this fascinating object (right – bottom), reveals an apparently "snapped off" body geometry, at least five visible cylindrical "segments," and a hint of other fossil-like features buried in the surrounding rock itself – all classic hallmarks of a former living organism! So, what did the JPL Rover science Team do with this potentially explosive scientific find …? They promptly ground it into powder … right before our eyes (PanCAm color image, left)! As the second Microscopic Image (1M131212854EFF0500P2959M2M1.jpg), taken immediately after this grinding operation clearly shows (right), rather than move the grinder (technically called the "Rock Abrasion Tool" – RAT) a couple of inches to the left or right, the grinding of the rock took place directly over this astonishing fossil-looking object …. Totally obliterating it. The raw "before" and "after" images of this wanton and inexplicable destruction can still be seen at the JPL Mars Exploration Rover Mission homepage. This is so reminiscent of the destruction of the Library of Alexandria which held over half a million documents, and which ushered in the dark ages from which we have never recovered, that one wonders who it is that decides what knowledge we shall have, and why they are so afraid of what we might learn about ourselves. IMO, the Vatican library, should be opened to the public, as it must hold many secrets of ancient history, which would be relevant to the present, and explain why the PTB are so desperate to withhold information from us. If E.T's are trying to contact us, it is reasonable to assume that they do not have the primitive technology, or the primitive communication skills used here on earth. It is also reasonable to assume that they have already been in contact, but that knowledge is being jealously guarded from the unwashed masses.
It is vital to understand that there is no truth without discernment and no wisdom without the truth. What then is “faith” but an effort to confound truth and wisdom?
We're not all victims, some of us have opened our eyes to the fraud of Christyinsanity. When you look at world religions you'll find Hindus believe there are thousand of other planets that have intelligent life and the Buddhist don't care. It's only the Abrahamic (christ/jew/moos) religions that insist that we're alone, and it's only the Abrahamic religions that can't get along with the rest of the world.
"Ideas are more powerful than guns. We would not let our enemies have guns, why should we let them have ideas?" - Stalin
Agreed, but unlikely. I doubt many have even had full access to it. Remember, the "Church" is a Huge Landowner and MONEYMAKER. Praise Heysus and pass the collection plate.
"Ideas are more powerful than guns. We would not let our enemies have guns, why should we let them have ideas?" - Stalin
NASA has done similar on more than one occasion. A couple off the top of my head - airbrushing photos to remove anomalies, and color shifting photos of Mars to make them more red and hide any green cropping up. This is social control through knowledge control. While I cannot point at a smoking gun as to why just what I have reasoned out for myself is that the elites want a stable hive of drones who do not think, and are just literate enough to read instruction manuals on equipment. People who think ask questions, they wonder, and they figure out things which their "betters" do not want them to figure out - such as how the society is being programmed toward total control and dominance by a small elite. Since much of their control hinges upon controlling attitudes and world views it is just this kind of information which causes people be inspired and rise above "their station". Also the MIC, by the few glimpses that have leaked out, have buried in secrecy power generation and propulsion technology that allows access to all points in the solar system. That seems to be part of the motivation in hounding the British hacker McKinnon - he saw things that the general public is not allowed to know about i.e., that we already have functioning space craft, buried under shrouds of secrecy, that allow us to travel easily between the planets if not the stars. Truth IS often stranger than fiction.
While I would agree that Christianity has been, intentionally, warped beyond all recognition as it was at inception and now religion is nevertheless a potent force in society. Mostly it has been for good, but due to the warping by power crazed materialists (the "High Priests" and worshipers of wealth and power) it was become distorted. That even applies to Buddhism. Some sects have raised Buddha to the status of a "God" and yet that is exactly contrary to what he said himself i.e., that he was only a man who had been given some insight. However, the spiritual side of existence is as real as the material, and without recognition of that then man is left floundering worshiping such insubstantial material idols as money and power.
Thank you. I've always enjoyed George Carlin's "take" on God and religion.
It is vital to understand that there is no truth without discernment and no wisdom without the truth. What then is “faith” but an effort to confound truth and wisdom?
To use a hackneyed phrase, if a majority of people were to realize that we are "spiritual beings having a human experience," the whole paradigm would shift so dramatically that the power and control systems would crash due to irrelevancy.
It is vital to understand that there is no truth without discernment and no wisdom without the truth. What then is “faith” but an effort to confound truth and wisdom?
Agreed. Sting got it right - "we are spirits in the material world". Man is much more than he has ever been allowed to think he is, and the psychotics are busy trying to hammer him into the mud. Believing contrary to their beliefs is the most profound act of resistance.
As it has always been. That said, in time our current crop of gods will probably go the way of the rest (No disrespect to ODIN!!! of course) especially if ET life becomes a proven fact.
"Ideas are more powerful than guns. We would not let our enemies have guns, why should we let them have ideas?" - Stalin
Yes we have a problem, realize a lot of Jews are with your POV..
So, in effect, we're biased.
#2. To: Ada (#0)
#3. To: Ada (#0)
The values of almost all these factors are highly speculative
#4. To: Shoonra (#2)
No, we're not alone in the universe. But we're such total a_holes that the other planets deliberately stay away from us.
#5. To: Shoonra (#2)
But we're such total a_holes that the other planets deliberately stay away from us.
#6. To: Ada (#0)
Scientists engaged in the search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI) work under the assumption that there is, in fact, intelligent life out there to be found.
#7. To: Ada, *The hook-nosed Jew* (#0)
-Schweizerische Schuetzenzeitung (Swiss Shooting Federation) April, 1941
#8. To: buckeroo (#6)
How does mankind define "intelligent life" when we only think we understand such ideas?
#9. To: buckeroo (#6)
How does mankind define "intelligent life" when we only think we understand such ideas?
#10. To: Shoonra (#2)
...we're such total a_holes that the other planets deliberately stay away from us.
#11. To: Ada, buckeroo, chrisine, irishthatcherite (#8)
How does mankind define "intelligent life" when we only think we understand such ideas?
#12. To: christine (#5)
But we're such total a_holes that the other planets deliberately stay away from us.
#13. To: Shoonra (#12)
#14. To: All (#11)
#15. To: Original_Intent (#14)
FROM THE CRINOID CONTROVERSY:
#16. To: Original_Intent, All, 4 (#11)
Because we, on earth, have for a variety of cultural, religious, and now social control reasons developed prejudices which deny the possibility of life beyond our own little grain of sand on the galactic beach proves nothing other than that we are victims of those world views.
#17. To: angK (#15)
IMO, the Vatican library, should be opened to the public, as it must hold many secrets of ancient history, which would be relevant to the present, and explain why the PTB are so desperate to withhold information from us.
#18. To: angK, all (#15)
This is so reminiscent of the destruction of the Library of Alexandria which held over half a million documents, ...
#19. To: Flintlock (#16)
We're not all victims, some of us have opened our eyes to the fraud of Christyinsanity.
#20. To: Flintlock (#17)
Praise Heysus and pass the collection plate.
#21. To: Original_Intent (#19)
However, the spiritual side of existence is as real as the material, and without recognition of that then man is left floundering worshiping such insubstantial material idols as money and power.
#22. To: angK (#21)
#23. To: Original_Intent (#19)
religion is nevertheless a potent force in society
#24. To: RickyJ (#10)
Speak for yourself. Most of the assholes I see on Earth are Jews.
"Satan / Cheney in "08" 
Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest