See other Science/Tech Articles
Title: from Texas_Engineer, posting at The Oil Drum
Source:
drumbeat, December 26, 2011
URL Source: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/8766/860272
Published: Dec 26, 2011
Author: texas engineer
Post Date: 2011-12-26 18:29:06 by lead.and.lag
Keywords: None
Views: 1320
Comments: 87
Human beings are not creatures of facts and logic - they are people who live in stories. This is not new - it has always been that way. We have certain collective narratives that almost everyone automatically accept without further thought. It is how we make sense of the world. These narratives keep us sane by allowing us to filter out the hurricane of information swirling around us daily and making some sense of it. The current narrative that most people subscribe to is that economic growth will eventually return or we have plenty of oil but the government is not letting is drill for it. For that reason I am not convinced that you will ever convince the average citizen (not a technical person) by showing them data. I am a data person and I have tried it with my family and their eyes glaze over. So I think you can only change people's views is by constantly telling them a different story - one that is consistent with their current experience. It worked pretty well with my family. A story something like this: If peak oil is a possibility - what would it be like? Well for starters the peak oil story is not about potential oil under the ground. That oil is irrelevant because it cannot be used. Peak oil is only about one thing - the ongoing flow rate of oil into the economy. For all of the last century and up until about 2005 that flow rate grew steadily. But that flow rate pretty much came to a halt in about 2005 and for the last half decade could not grow. And as you would expect the global oil price started to rise. That's what happens when supply cannot keep up with demand. Economists told us not to worry - Mr. Market would immediately react with increased supplies, reducing price - but it did not happen. The global oil price (Brent Crude) is now consistently above $100 per barrel after staying below $20 for most of the last century. This is what peak oil is like. This is what peak oil was predicted to be like. High energy prices eat away at the economy by pouring sand into the gears of the economy. Every country in the world tried to compensate for this slowdown by increasing debt. The world is now ludicrously broke - with no chance of paying off this debt bubble. This is peak oil - it is not about resources under the ground - it is about oil production rate - and high oil prices. Don't tell me peak oil cannot happen - it is happening. I have personally found that my family is stumped when I present this story in this way. They don't have an answer. But the story caused a few of them to ask to see some data. Then I showed them the data. Now they are worried and they hate me :-)
Post Comment Private Reply Ignore Thread
Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest
Comments (1-10) not displayed.
.
.
.
#11. To: Phant2000 (#10)
(Edited)
so long as you got a story that works for you, that's the important thing. there's no use worrying about knowledge as a survival tool, because we got tons of extra people, anyhow. one bullheaded old lady from california isnt gonnna make much difference, one way or the other. :)
I have posted about abiotic oil several times. Just imagine how many dinosaurs would have had to have roamed the earth to make all the oil and gas that has already been used. It boggles the mind, the stack would probably have reached into outer space. Liberty is not a means to a higher political end. It is itself the highest political end. Lord Acton The human herd stampedes on the fields of facts and the valleys of truth to get to the desert of ignorance. Saman Mohammadi "If a politician found he had cannibals among his constituents, he would promise them missionaries for dinner." Mencken "..if the military is going to defend our freedoms, then we need freedoms to defend. Our freedoms must be restored before the military can defend them..." Lawrence M. Vance Você me trata desse jeito só porque eu sou preto. Junior (my youngest son)
Please share that with anyone that will listen ... 'cause that's the perfect explanation, smart ass.
how much oil did thomas gold find in his abiotic wells in sweden? why are there no russian or ukrainian oil wells outside sedimentary basins? why is ukraine dependent on russian fossil fuels, if they got so much abiotic oil? it's hard to estimate how much damage alex jones has done to americans' thinking skills.. but, like i said before, we got lots of extra people, so if ignorance kills you that's okay... the important thing is having a story you can believe in.
whatever changed, why did it change? Rapid devaluation of the dollar which is propped up by dollar for oil hegemony. All pay more to prop up the dollar, which is the currency for oil exchange and is in rapid decline because it is a FIAT currency. " If you cannot govern yourself, you will be governed by assholes. " Randge, Poet de Forum, 1/11/11 "Life's tough, and even tougher if you're stupid." --John Wayne
does a BMW or toyota cost five times more now than it did in 2001?
In 1971, prior to Bretton Woods Oil/Dollar hegemony deal, a stamp was eight cents and today it is 44 cents. The same analogy can be made in cars, coffee, metals, clothes, power tools, etc. This is because the DOLLAR IS DECLINING IN VALUE. Actually, the goods should cost less due to less labor intensive mechanisms to create goods......however the increase is on average 400% since the great oil/dollar hegemony deal. In 1971, you could buy a Toyota Corona for $2150 new. " If you cannot govern yourself, you will be governed by assholes. " Randge, Poet de Forum, 1/11/11 "Life's tough, and even tougher if you're stupid." --John Wayne
the value of the dollar, as measured against the euro and the yen and a few other currnencies, has been flat since oil production peaked in 2004. the price of oil, since 9/11, has gone from $20 a barrel to a peak of $147 a barrel before the crash of 2008, and is now at $100 a barrel. since 2004, the dollar has been more or less flat when measured against the euro and the yen.
Let's take it back a few years there lead.and.lag. Note the STABILITY OF OIL PRICES at $20 a barrel right up until the Oil/Dollar Hegemony deal in 1971. What you refer to as a "big deal" since 2001 is simply manipulation of the markets so that the rich can get richer and the middle class can be eliminated. ALL of the volatility in this market has occurred since the oil/dollar hegemony began in 1971. " If you cannot govern yourself, you will be governed by assholes. " Randge, Poet de Forum, 1/11/11 "Life's tough, and even tougher if you're stupid." --John Wayne
For the umpteenth time of the year. God's own truth. Break the Conventions - Keep the Commandments - G.K.Chesterson you got a story you can believe in... that's the important thing nothing else matters.
lol....sure lead.and.lag.
" If you cannot govern yourself, you will be governed by assholes. " Randge, Poet de Forum, 1/11/11 "Life's tough, and even tougher if you're stupid." --John Wayne
maybe we could simplify all this by saying that oil, not love, makes the world go round. so we could say that all currencies are devalued, and it's no use comparing one currency to another, because they're all devalued compared to the thing that makes the world go round. escpecially when goldman sachs and the fed and the europeans have started printing money like there's no tomorrow in an attempt to avoid acknowledging peak oil production. that denial is especially critical when it becomes so obvious that peak oil was the rmain reason the necons, israel, and their oily warmonger allies staged 9/11.
Peak Oil ranks right up there with Leprechauns, the Easter Bunny, Tooth Fairy, Santa Claus, Glowbull Warming, and the "Waronterra". It is a PR/PsyOps bought and paid for by the people who benefit from high oil prices. Between, The Balkan Formation, Gull Island, the fields off the Florida Coast, and the other massive find in the Gulf we'll hit Peak Oil sometime around the end of this millennium or at least the next - maybe. Actually it's money. exxon benefits from high oil prices. why are they denying peak oil?
What you are missing is that since empire America sold the world on dollar/oil hegemony it has continually used it to exert power over other nation all over the world. All was fine with Iraq while Saddam was willing to be a pliable puppet and continue to trade his oil in DOLLARS. When he threatened to move his oil trading into a basket of currencies empire USA went to war in Iraq....it had NOTHING to do with peak oil.
" If you cannot govern yourself, you will be governed by assholes. " Randge, Poet de Forum, 1/11/11 "Life's tough, and even tougher if you're stupid." --John Wayne
why did all this bullshit start happening just as oil production peaked? are you willing to concede thae exxon would have had some of the most accruate predictions as to the timing of peak oil? why then did exxon abandon its nuke energy rropgram (after a massive anti-nuke propaganda campaign in america) and join up with the israeli aemricans of the AEI, who hatched the PNAC project, which said it needed a new pearl harbor to get their project underway? why, if exxon profits so greatly from high oil prices, and peak oil is an oil company plot, is exxon denying the existence of peak oil?
exxon benefits from high oil prices. why are they denying peak oil? I give. I don't care what they have to say and did not base my conclusion upon it. My conclusion is based upon the available evidence. If the evidence changes then I will reevaluate my position. However, if anything I expect the number of proven finds to continue to grow as oil is a creation of natural geochemical processes within the planet's crust and below. We are literally floating on the stuff. if there's a conspiracy to limit oil production, why did the number of drills working double between 2001 and the 2008 price spike? despite the drills doubling, oil production has remained flat since late 2004. why is that?
Bingo! And not just the dollar although that was a major part of it. The other factor is that Saddam's Iraq did not have a Rothschild controlled Central Bank, and neither did Libya. One of the first things the so-called rebels (actually terrorists and mercenaries with a history of working for CIA/MI-6/Mossad) did was to establish, Drum Roll Please, Yes, that is correct - these desert dwelling unsophisticated "rebels" established The Central Bank of Libya. Ghadaffi's sin was to attempt to go around Rothschild dominance and establish a gold backed Dinar for Libya and Africa. ...the implication being, the rothschilds know about peak oil. good enough
Why has the Feral Government refused to license any new refineries - beginning under Geeee Duhbya? Why have all of the independent refineries all been bought up by the majors? It is all a game of manipulation and there is more than one level to the game. Part of the suppression is to keep practical cheap alternative energy off the market and that has gone as far as murder to ensure it. Exactly. Since the USA controls the price of oil through dollar/oil hegemony it uses the PRICE of oil at whim to extract an ounce of flesh from oil producing nations. Of course, this is now having repercussions in the global chess game as the wealthy increase the price to increase their wealth and then Russia/Iran or other "threats" actually benefit greatly at the same time. Goldman Sachs has long had more to do with the price of Oil than supply, demand or production. Denial of this obvious fact doesn't change it one iota. " If you cannot govern yourself, you will be governed by assholes. " Randge, Poet de Forum, 1/11/11 "Life's tough, and even tougher if you're stupid." --John Wayne
i guess a rothchild's meessenger prgeon did a transatlantic flight in 1973, informing the barons that texas oil production had peaked, and the handwriting was on the wall for america.
why would you build new refineries when oil production has peaked? rehabbing an old refinery to accomodate the remaining heavy sour oil is cheaper than starting from scratch. and if there was a refinery shortage, the price of crude would fall, while the price of refined products rose. both crude and product prices are rising, no new refineries are being built, which is an indication of flat oil production in an environment of growing demand.
Hey, lead.and.lag., according to this even longer view there was a spike in oil prices back in 1869 up to $75 dollars prior to stabilizing around $20 dollars until 1971.....was that spike due to peak oil? " If you cannot govern yourself, you will be governed by assholes. " Randge, Poet de Forum, 1/11/11 "Life's tough, and even tougher if you're stupid." --John Wayne
Thanks for your encouragement, OI (not that I needed it ... hehehe)!
OI, don't you be taking away the fun of the fat lady singing.
in the long run, it's good that we have so many stories to believe in... pick your favorite, and stick with it! it's good from a human survival standpoint... out of so many haywire theories, somebody's bound to be right, and if they act on their belefs, they stand a better chance of surviving.
You're most welcome. ;-) Peak Oilers are like O'bots, Kristyun Zionists, and true believer Marxists. Facts are irrelevant, evidence is irrelevant, the commonalty boils down to one of two things: 1. I beeeeeeeeeeeeeelieeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeve. 2. I get paaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaid. since the people who were wrong will kill each other off squabbling over that last gallon of exxon gasoline, the people who stayed out of the fight will stand a better chance of surviving... seeing as how so much of the ocompetition killed each other off. good deal.
Seems to me I gave just such a simple answer and was chastized for it. Too bad my story doesn't work for others.
Goldman Sachs has long had more to do with the price of Oil than supply, demand or production. Denial of this obvious fact doesn't change it one iota. Yes, one could call it monetary parasitology. Yes, the Russians have got to be yukking it up. The Western financial interests are in a trap. They are so over extended through derivatives and other financial gambling that they are having to print money hand over fist and create ever more zeros. They can no longer depress the price of oil to starve the Russian economic machine and keep them down otherwise they collapse too. To prevent hyperinflation and monetary system collapse they have to keep oil the primary energy source and control the price of oil or the house of cards collapses. oh, it works for most people, never fear. nevermind that you have no substiation for your story of artifical oil shortages, and there's lots of evidence that people are looking hard for more oil, but they cant find anything approaching the quantities they need to replace the old giant fields that are starting to decline.
All great truths are simple. If someone is attempting to make the truth complex it is generally a sign they are trying to hornswoggle people and create a fog of untruths. That by the way is a sure fire way to spot a professional disinformationist on a forum - if you have someone who trying to create a confusion of complexity it generally means that they are either a shill or dirt dumb. Both types are well represented at FreepTardia. let this thread cool off, come back in a couple days and read it. then, if you're honest, you'll see who's making the complicated arguments. meanwhile, the truth is simple: no amount of wishful thinking will get more than five pounds of shit out of a five pound bag.
Russia doesn't seem to be having any problems in creasing production. Venezuela is increasing oil production. Iran is increasing oil production. Apparently if America isn't butting in, production increases. And the ONLY reason it isn't increasing in America is not due to inability to produce it, but rather will to produce oil. Refusing to produce oil is what empire America depends upon for an excuse to butt into every other nations affairs. If we got to producing our own resources instead of policing the world with dollar/oil hegemony it would be the end of empire USA and the MIC and the warring world wide for central bankers. Just look how great Libya was doing in increased production before we butting in over there....... " If you cannot govern yourself, you will be governed by assholes. " Randge, Poet de Forum, 1/11/11 "Life's tough, and even tougher if you're stupid." --John Wayne
anyhow, just to summarize... the most dangerous thing about the idea of peak oil, at this point, is that it explains why the neocons did 9/11. as we work down the back side of the prodcution curve, that concern will pale as everyone but the looters is preoccupied with surviving.
That is misleading. The reason for 911 was to create a psychological shock to the society to frighten people into accepting actions, policies, wars, and laws that would otherwise have been stridently opposed. The PATRIOT Act was already written and waiting on the shelf for a situation that would allow its passage. OKC was conducted to pass Klinton's "anti-terror law". Yes there was an agenda behind 911 and it was conducted for a purpose, but that purpose had little or nothing to do with the mythological PsyOp known as Peak Oil. but you still cnt explain why global oil production has been flat, despite so many drills working in such inhospitable places. you wont acknowledge the fact that giant oil fields are declining in production, you wont acknowledge that new discoveries are not keeping up with production, let alone keeping up with increasing demand that's causing price hikes. in other words, all you're going on is your faith... you might be right, but the chances get slimmer with each year that passes and no replacement fields are found the size of the old fields that are depleting. your argument seems to hinge on an oil company conspiracy, yet you cant provide any evidence of that conspiracy, and you cant explain why the most profitable oil company in the world is also the most prominent denier of peak oil, but is be allied with israeli americans who said needed a new pearl harbor just before they got into position to make it happen. but if your belief works for you, that's really all that counts.
Comments (52 - 87) not displayed.
Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/LatestI sold my shovel
#12. To: Cornhuskerkid (#6)
Abiotic oil created deep in the Earth; not fossil fools. Peak Oil tends to be the refuge of the ignorant and the scoundrels. As well as the soundrel- ignoramuses. Russia knows this FACT very well.
#13. To: lead.and.lag (#11)
one bullheaded old lady from california isnt gonnna make much difference, one way or the other.
#14. To: James Deffenbach (#12)
(Edited)
I have posted about abiotic oil several times
#15. To: lead.and.lag (#4)
#16. To: abraxas (#15)
Rapid devaluation of the dollar
#17. To: lead.and.lag (#16)
does a BMW or toyota cost five times more now than it did in 2001?
#18. To: abraxas (#17)
(Edited)
#19. To: lead.and.lag (#18)
#20. To: abraxas, 4 (#17)
This is because the DOLLAR IS DECLINING IN VALUE.
#21. To: abraxas (#19)
#22. To: lead.and.lag (#21)
#23. To: All (#21)
(Edited)
#24. To: Phant2000 (#7)
#25. To: lead.and.lag, Phant2000 (#23)
maybe we could simplify all this by saying that oil, not love, makes the world go round.
Money makes the Oil go up
Oil Go Up
Oil Go Up
Money makes the Oil go up
Oil Go Up
Oil Go Up
La-Tee Da-Tee Da
#26. To: Original_Intent (#24)
It is a PR/PsyOps bought and paid for by the people who benefit from high oil prices.
#27. To: lead.and.lag (#23)
#28. To: Original_Intent (#25)
Money makes the Oil go up
#29. To: lead.and.lag (#26)
It is a PR/PsyOps bought and paid for by the people who benefit from high oil prices.
#30. To: Original_Intent (#29)
(Edited)
#31. To: abraxas (#27)
What you are missing is that since empire America sold the world on dollar/oil hegemony it has continually used it to exert power over other nation all over the world. All was fine with Iraq while Saddam was willing to be a pliable puppet and continue to trade his oil in DOLLARS. When he threatened to move his oil trading into a basket of currencies empire USA went to war in Iraq....it had NOTHING to do with peak oil.
#32. To: Original_Intent (#31)
Saddam's Iraq did not have a Rothschild controlled Central Bank, and neither did Libya.
#33. To: lead.and.lag (#30)
#34. To: Original_Intent (#31)
#35. To: Original_Intent (#31)
#36. To: Original_Intent (#33)
refused to license any new refineries
#37. To: lead.and.lag (#36)
#38. To: Original_Intent (#24)
Peak Oil ranks right up there with Leprechauns ...
#39. To: Original_Intent (#25)
La-Tee Da-Tee Da
#40. To: All (#36)
(Edited)
#41. To: Phant2000 (#38)
Thanks for your encouragement, OI (not that I needed it ... hehehe)!
#42. To: All (#40)
(Edited)
#43. To: Original_Intent (#41)
#44. To: abraxas (#34)
Exactly. Since the USA controls the price of oil through dollar/oil hegemony it uses the PRICE of oil at whim to extract an ounce of flesh from oil producing nations. Of course, this is now having repercussions in the global chess game as the wealthy increase the price to increase their wealth and then Russia/Iran or other "threats" actually benefit greatly at the same time.
#45. To: Phant2000 (#43)
(Edited)
Too bad my story doesn't work for others.
#46. To: Phant2000 (#43)
Seems to me I gave just such a simple answer and was chastized for it. Too bad my story doesn't work for others.
#47. To: Original_Intent (#46)
(Edited)
All great truths are simple
#48. To: lead.and.lag (#45)
#49. To: All (#47)
#50. To: lead.and.lag (#49)
#51. To: Original_Intent (#50)
(Edited)
.
.
.