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Title: from Texas_Engineer, posting at The Oil Drum
Source:
drumbeat, December 26, 2011
URL Source: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/8766/860272
Published: Dec 26, 2011
Author: texas engineer
Post Date: 2011-12-26 18:29:06 by lead.and.lag
Keywords: None
Views: 1356
Comments: 87
Human beings are not creatures of facts and logic - they are people who live in stories. This is not new - it has always been that way. We have certain collective narratives that almost everyone automatically accept without further thought. It is how we make sense of the world. These narratives keep us sane by allowing us to filter out the hurricane of information swirling around us daily and making some sense of it. The current narrative that most people subscribe to is that economic growth will eventually return or we have plenty of oil but the government is not letting is drill for it. For that reason I am not convinced that you will ever convince the average citizen (not a technical person) by showing them data. I am a data person and I have tried it with my family and their eyes glaze over. So I think you can only change people's views is by constantly telling them a different story - one that is consistent with their current experience. It worked pretty well with my family. A story something like this: If peak oil is a possibility - what would it be like? Well for starters the peak oil story is not about potential oil under the ground. That oil is irrelevant because it cannot be used. Peak oil is only about one thing - the ongoing flow rate of oil into the economy. For all of the last century and up until about 2005 that flow rate grew steadily. But that flow rate pretty much came to a halt in about 2005 and for the last half decade could not grow. And as you would expect the global oil price started to rise. That's what happens when supply cannot keep up with demand. Economists told us not to worry - Mr. Market would immediately react with increased supplies, reducing price - but it did not happen. The global oil price (Brent Crude) is now consistently above $100 per barrel after staying below $20 for most of the last century. This is what peak oil is like. This is what peak oil was predicted to be like. High energy prices eat away at the economy by pouring sand into the gears of the economy. Every country in the world tried to compensate for this slowdown by increasing debt. The world is now ludicrously broke - with no chance of paying off this debt bubble. This is peak oil - it is not about resources under the ground - it is about oil production rate - and high oil prices. Don't tell me peak oil cannot happen - it is happening. I have personally found that my family is stumped when I present this story in this way. They don't have an answer. But the story caused a few of them to ask to see some data. Then I showed them the data. Now they are worried and they hate me :-)
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Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 37.
#1. To: lead.and.lag (#0)
What does it say about a society that hates you for telling the truth? The oil shortage is man made and for a purpose. Ignorance fuels the fire of man made shortages and makes them sustainable and VERY profitable.
you are supposedly from texas. texas oil production peaked in the early 70s. why?
texas oil production peaked in the early 70s. why? I'm not from Texas, but Southern California. I lived in Dallas for a few years, but not since 2005. I was in the legal profession, not the oil industry. However, my untrained understanding of oil peaking is production declines due to resource depletion. However, you are asking about Texas. What about the resources that are available in the entire U.S?
Peak Oil ranks right up there with Leprechauns, the Easter Bunny, Tooth Fairy, Santa Claus, Glowbull Warming, and the "Waronterra". It is a PR/PsyOps bought and paid for by the people who benefit from high oil prices. Between, The Balkan Formation, Gull Island, the fields off the Florida Coast, and the other massive find in the Gulf we'll hit Peak Oil sometime around the end of this millennium or at least the next - maybe.
exxon benefits from high oil prices. why are they denying peak oil?
exxon benefits from high oil prices. why are they denying peak oil? I give. I don't care what they have to say and did not base my conclusion upon it. My conclusion is based upon the available evidence. If the evidence changes then I will reevaluate my position. However, if anything I expect the number of proven finds to continue to grow as oil is a creation of natural geochemical processes within the planet's crust and below. We are literally floating on the stuff.
if there's a conspiracy to limit oil production, why did the number of drills working double between 2001 and the 2008 price spike? despite the drills doubling, oil production has remained flat since late 2004. why is that?
Why has the Feral Government refused to license any new refineries - beginning under Geeee Duhbya? Why have all of the independent refineries all been bought up by the majors? It is all a game of manipulation and there is more than one level to the game. Part of the suppression is to keep practical cheap alternative energy off the market and that has gone as far as murder to ensure it.
why would you build new refineries when oil production has peaked? rehabbing an old refinery to accomodate the remaining heavy sour oil is cheaper than starting from scratch. and if there was a refinery shortage, the price of crude would fall, while the price of refined products rose. both crude and product prices are rising, no new refineries are being built, which is an indication of flat oil production in an environment of growing demand.
Hey, lead.and.lag., according to this even longer view there was a spike in oil prices back in 1869 up to $75 dollars prior to stabilizing around $20 dollars until 1971.....was that spike due to peak oil?
There are no replies to Comment # 37. End Trace Mode for Comment # 37.
Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/LatestNow they are worried and they hate me.
#2. To: Phant2000 (#1)
(Edited)
What does it say
#7. To: lead.and.lag (#2)
you are supposedly from texas.
#24. To: Phant2000 (#7)
#26. To: Original_Intent (#24)
It is a PR/PsyOps bought and paid for by the people who benefit from high oil prices.
#29. To: lead.and.lag (#26)
It is a PR/PsyOps bought and paid for by the people who benefit from high oil prices.
#30. To: Original_Intent (#29)
(Edited)
#33. To: lead.and.lag (#30)
#36. To: Original_Intent (#33)
refused to license any new refineries
#37. To: lead.and.lag (#36)
Replies to Comment # 37.