[Home]  [Headlines]  [Latest Articles]  [Latest Comments]  [Post]  [Sign-in]  [Mail]  [Setup]  [Help] 

Status: Not Logged In; Sign In

The Biggest Financial Collapse in China’s History Is Here, More Terrifying Than Evergrande!

Lightning

Cash Jordan NYC Courthouse EMPTIED... ICE Deports 'Entire Building

Trump Sparks Domestic Labor Renaissance: Native-Born Workers Surge To Record High As Foreign-Born Plunge

Mister Roberts (1965)

WE BROKE HIM!! [Early weekend BS/nonsense thread]

I'm going to send DOGE after Elon." -Trump

This is the America I grew up in. We need to bring it back

MD State Employee may get Arrested by Sheriff for reporting an Illegal Alien to ICE

RFK Jr: DTaP vaccine was found to have link to Autism

FBI Agents found that the Chinese manufactured fake driver’s licenses and shipped them to the U.S. to help Biden...

Love & Real Estate: China’s new romance scam

Huge Democrat shift against Israel stuns CNN

McCarthy Was Right. They Lied About Everything.

How Romans Built Domes

My 7 day suspension on X was lifted today.

They Just Revealed EVERYTHING... [Project 2029]

Trump ACCUSED Of MASS EXECUTING Illegals By DUMPING Them In The Ocean

The Siege (1998)

Trump Admin To BAN Pride Rainbow Crosswalks, DoT Orders ALL Distractions REMOVED

Elon Musk Backing Thomas Massie Against Trump-AIPAC Challenger

Skateboarding Dog

Israel's Plans for Jordan

Daily Vitamin D Supplementation Slows Cellular Aging:

Hepatitis E Virus in Pork

Hospital Executives Arrested After Nurse Convicted of Killing Seven Newborns, Trying to Kill Eight More

The Explosion of Jewish Fatigue Syndrome

Tucker Carlson: RFK Jr's Mission to End Skyrocketing Autism, Declassifying Kennedy Files

Israel has killed 1,000 Palestinians in the West Bank since October 7, 2023

100m Americans live in areas with cancer-causing 'forever chemicals' in their water


Science/Tech
See other Science/Tech Articles

Title: from Texas_Engineer, posting at The Oil Drum
Source: drumbeat, December 26, 2011
URL Source: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/8766/860272
Published: Dec 26, 2011
Author: texas engineer
Post Date: 2011-12-26 18:29:06 by lead.and.lag
Keywords: None
Views: 1642
Comments: 87

Human beings are not creatures of facts and logic - they are people who live in stories. This is not new - it has always been that way. We have certain collective narratives that almost everyone automatically accept without further thought. It is how we make sense of the world. These narratives keep us sane by allowing us to filter out the hurricane of information swirling around us daily and making some sense of it. The current narrative that most people subscribe to is that economic growth will eventually return or we have plenty of oil but the government is not letting is drill for it.

For that reason I am not convinced that you will ever convince the average citizen (not a technical person) by showing them data. I am a data person and I have tried it with my family and their eyes glaze over.

So I think you can only change people's views is by constantly telling them a different story - one that is consistent with their current experience. It worked pretty well with my family. A story something like this:

If peak oil is a possibility - what would it be like? Well for starters the peak oil story is not about potential oil under the ground. That oil is irrelevant because it cannot be used. Peak oil is only about one thing - the ongoing flow rate of oil into the economy. For all of the last century and up until about 2005 that flow rate grew steadily. But that flow rate pretty much came to a halt in about 2005 and for the last half decade could not grow. And as you would expect the global oil price started to rise. That's what happens when supply cannot keep up with demand. Economists told us not to worry - Mr. Market would immediately react with increased supplies, reducing price - but it did not happen.

The global oil price (Brent Crude) is now consistently above $100 per barrel after staying below $20 for most of the last century. This is what peak oil is like. This is what peak oil was predicted to be like. High energy prices eat away at the economy by pouring sand into the gears of the economy. Every country in the world tried to compensate for this slowdown by increasing debt. The world is now ludicrously broke - with no chance of paying off this debt bubble. This is peak oil - it is not about resources under the ground - it is about oil production rate - and high oil prices. Don't tell me peak oil cannot happen - it is happening.

I have personally found that my family is stumped when I present this story in this way. They don't have an answer. But the story caused a few of them to ask to see some data. Then I showed them the data. Now they are worried and they hate me :-)

Post Comment   Private Reply   Ignore Thread  


TopPage UpFull ThreadPage DownBottom/Latest

Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 4.

#3. To: all (#0)

That oil is irrelevant because it cannot be used. Peak oil is only about one thing - the ongoing flow rate of oil into the economy. For all of the last century and up until about 2005 that flow rate grew steadily. But that flow rate pretty much came to a halt in about 2005 and for the last half decade could not grow. And as you would expect the global oil price started to rise. That's what happens when supply cannot keep up with demand.

"Peak Oil" is a bs theory used by people with a vested interest to keep oil and gas prices high. Do you recall the so-called "gas shortage" of the early 70's? I do and I remember it well. Long lines of people waiting for gas and actually getting into fights over it. And for what? I told people at the time that it was a scam by the oil companies and when they got the price where they wanted it--which at that time was about one "dollar" a gallon--the gas would flow freely again and you wouldn't hear any more bs about any "shortage." Exactly what happened. There is plenty of oil and gas and lots of it here in the US.

James Deffenbach  posted on  2011-12-26   19:00:42 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#4. To: James Deffenbach (#3)

"Peak Oil" is a bs theory used by people with a vested interest to keep oil and gas prices high

why were oil prices so low for so long?

what changed?

whatever changed, why did it change?

lead.and.lag  posted on  2011-12-26   19:04:45 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


Replies to Comment # 4.

#15. To: lead.and.lag (#4)

whatever changed, why did it change?

Rapid devaluation of the dollar which is propped up by dollar for oil hegemony. All pay more to prop up the dollar, which is the currency for oil exchange and is in rapid decline because it is a FIAT currency.

abraxas  posted on  2011-12-26 20:05:54 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


End Trace Mode for Comment # 4.

TopPage UpFull ThreadPage DownBottom/Latest


[Home]  [Headlines]  [Latest Articles]  [Latest Comments]  [Post]  [Sign-in]  [Mail]  [Setup]  [Help]