See other Science/Tech Articles
Title: from Texas_Engineer, posting at The Oil Drum
Source:
drumbeat, December 26, 2011
URL Source: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/8766/860272
Published: Dec 26, 2011
Author: texas engineer
Post Date: 2011-12-26 18:29:06 by lead.and.lag
Keywords: None
Views: 1449
Comments: 87
Human beings are not creatures of facts and logic - they are people who live in stories. This is not new - it has always been that way. We have certain collective narratives that almost everyone automatically accept without further thought. It is how we make sense of the world. These narratives keep us sane by allowing us to filter out the hurricane of information swirling around us daily and making some sense of it. The current narrative that most people subscribe to is that economic growth will eventually return or we have plenty of oil but the government is not letting is drill for it. For that reason I am not convinced that you will ever convince the average citizen (not a technical person) by showing them data. I am a data person and I have tried it with my family and their eyes glaze over. So I think you can only change people's views is by constantly telling them a different story - one that is consistent with their current experience. It worked pretty well with my family. A story something like this: If peak oil is a possibility - what would it be like? Well for starters the peak oil story is not about potential oil under the ground. That oil is irrelevant because it cannot be used. Peak oil is only about one thing - the ongoing flow rate of oil into the economy. For all of the last century and up until about 2005 that flow rate grew steadily. But that flow rate pretty much came to a halt in about 2005 and for the last half decade could not grow. And as you would expect the global oil price started to rise. That's what happens when supply cannot keep up with demand. Economists told us not to worry - Mr. Market would immediately react with increased supplies, reducing price - but it did not happen. The global oil price (Brent Crude) is now consistently above $100 per barrel after staying below $20 for most of the last century. This is what peak oil is like. This is what peak oil was predicted to be like. High energy prices eat away at the economy by pouring sand into the gears of the economy. Every country in the world tried to compensate for this slowdown by increasing debt. The world is now ludicrously broke - with no chance of paying off this debt bubble. This is peak oil - it is not about resources under the ground - it is about oil production rate - and high oil prices. Don't tell me peak oil cannot happen - it is happening. I have personally found that my family is stumped when I present this story in this way. They don't have an answer. But the story caused a few of them to ask to see some data. Then I showed them the data. Now they are worried and they hate me :-)
Post Comment Private Reply Ignore Thread
Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest
Comments (1-24) not displayed.
.
.
.
#25. To: lead.and.lag, Phant2000 (#23)
Actually it's money. exxon benefits from high oil prices. why are they denying peak oil?
What you are missing is that since empire America sold the world on dollar/oil hegemony it has continually used it to exert power over other nation all over the world. All was fine with Iraq while Saddam was willing to be a pliable puppet and continue to trade his oil in DOLLARS. When he threatened to move his oil trading into a basket of currencies empire USA went to war in Iraq....it had NOTHING to do with peak oil.
" If you cannot govern yourself, you will be governed by assholes. " Randge, Poet de Forum, 1/11/11 "Life's tough, and even tougher if you're stupid." --John Wayne
why did all this bullshit start happening just as oil production peaked? are you willing to concede thae exxon would have had some of the most accruate predictions as to the timing of peak oil? why then did exxon abandon its nuke energy rropgram (after a massive anti-nuke propaganda campaign in america) and join up with the israeli aemricans of the AEI, who hatched the PNAC project, which said it needed a new pearl harbor to get their project underway? why, if exxon profits so greatly from high oil prices, and peak oil is an oil company plot, is exxon denying the existence of peak oil?
exxon benefits from high oil prices. why are they denying peak oil? I give. I don't care what they have to say and did not base my conclusion upon it. My conclusion is based upon the available evidence. If the evidence changes then I will reevaluate my position. However, if anything I expect the number of proven finds to continue to grow as oil is a creation of natural geochemical processes within the planet's crust and below. We are literally floating on the stuff. if there's a conspiracy to limit oil production, why did the number of drills working double between 2001 and the 2008 price spike? despite the drills doubling, oil production has remained flat since late 2004. why is that?
Bingo! And not just the dollar although that was a major part of it. The other factor is that Saddam's Iraq did not have a Rothschild controlled Central Bank, and neither did Libya. One of the first things the so-called rebels (actually terrorists and mercenaries with a history of working for CIA/MI-6/Mossad) did was to establish, Drum Roll Please, Yes, that is correct - these desert dwelling unsophisticated "rebels" established The Central Bank of Libya. Ghadaffi's sin was to attempt to go around Rothschild dominance and establish a gold backed Dinar for Libya and Africa. ...the implication being, the rothschilds know about peak oil. good enough
Why has the Feral Government refused to license any new refineries - beginning under Geeee Duhbya? Why have all of the independent refineries all been bought up by the majors? It is all a game of manipulation and there is more than one level to the game. Part of the suppression is to keep practical cheap alternative energy off the market and that has gone as far as murder to ensure it. Exactly. Since the USA controls the price of oil through dollar/oil hegemony it uses the PRICE of oil at whim to extract an ounce of flesh from oil producing nations. Of course, this is now having repercussions in the global chess game as the wealthy increase the price to increase their wealth and then Russia/Iran or other "threats" actually benefit greatly at the same time. Goldman Sachs has long had more to do with the price of Oil than supply, demand or production. Denial of this obvious fact doesn't change it one iota. " If you cannot govern yourself, you will be governed by assholes. " Randge, Poet de Forum, 1/11/11 "Life's tough, and even tougher if you're stupid." --John Wayne
i guess a rothchild's meessenger prgeon did a transatlantic flight in 1973, informing the barons that texas oil production had peaked, and the handwriting was on the wall for america.
why would you build new refineries when oil production has peaked? rehabbing an old refinery to accomodate the remaining heavy sour oil is cheaper than starting from scratch. and if there was a refinery shortage, the price of crude would fall, while the price of refined products rose. both crude and product prices are rising, no new refineries are being built, which is an indication of flat oil production in an environment of growing demand.
Hey, lead.and.lag., according to this even longer view there was a spike in oil prices back in 1869 up to $75 dollars prior to stabilizing around $20 dollars until 1971.....was that spike due to peak oil? " If you cannot govern yourself, you will be governed by assholes. " Randge, Poet de Forum, 1/11/11 "Life's tough, and even tougher if you're stupid." --John Wayne
Thanks for your encouragement, OI (not that I needed it ... hehehe)!
OI, don't you be taking away the fun of the fat lady singing.
in the long run, it's good that we have so many stories to believe in... pick your favorite, and stick with it! it's good from a human survival standpoint... out of so many haywire theories, somebody's bound to be right, and if they act on their belefs, they stand a better chance of surviving.
You're most welcome. ;-) Peak Oilers are like O'bots, Kristyun Zionists, and true believer Marxists. Facts are irrelevant, evidence is irrelevant, the commonalty boils down to one of two things: 1. I beeeeeeeeeeeeeelieeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeve. 2. I get paaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaid. since the people who were wrong will kill each other off squabbling over that last gallon of exxon gasoline, the people who stayed out of the fight will stand a better chance of surviving... seeing as how so much of the ocompetition killed each other off. good deal.
Seems to me I gave just such a simple answer and was chastized for it. Too bad my story doesn't work for others.
Goldman Sachs has long had more to do with the price of Oil than supply, demand or production. Denial of this obvious fact doesn't change it one iota. Yes, one could call it monetary parasitology. Yes, the Russians have got to be yukking it up. The Western financial interests are in a trap. They are so over extended through derivatives and other financial gambling that they are having to print money hand over fist and create ever more zeros. They can no longer depress the price of oil to starve the Russian economic machine and keep them down otherwise they collapse too. To prevent hyperinflation and monetary system collapse they have to keep oil the primary energy source and control the price of oil or the house of cards collapses. oh, it works for most people, never fear. nevermind that you have no substiation for your story of artifical oil shortages, and there's lots of evidence that people are looking hard for more oil, but they cant find anything approaching the quantities they need to replace the old giant fields that are starting to decline.
All great truths are simple. If someone is attempting to make the truth complex it is generally a sign they are trying to hornswoggle people and create a fog of untruths. That by the way is a sure fire way to spot a professional disinformationist on a forum - if you have someone who trying to create a confusion of complexity it generally means that they are either a shill or dirt dumb. Both types are well represented at FreepTardia. let this thread cool off, come back in a couple days and read it. then, if you're honest, you'll see who's making the complicated arguments. meanwhile, the truth is simple: no amount of wishful thinking will get more than five pounds of shit out of a five pound bag.
Russia doesn't seem to be having any problems in creasing production. Venezuela is increasing oil production. Iran is increasing oil production. Apparently if America isn't butting in, production increases. And the ONLY reason it isn't increasing in America is not due to inability to produce it, but rather will to produce oil. Refusing to produce oil is what empire America depends upon for an excuse to butt into every other nations affairs. If we got to producing our own resources instead of policing the world with dollar/oil hegemony it would be the end of empire USA and the MIC and the warring world wide for central bankers. Just look how great Libya was doing in increased production before we butting in over there....... " If you cannot govern yourself, you will be governed by assholes. " Randge, Poet de Forum, 1/11/11 "Life's tough, and even tougher if you're stupid." --John Wayne
anyhow, just to summarize... the most dangerous thing about the idea of peak oil, at this point, is that it explains why the neocons did 9/11. as we work down the back side of the prodcution curve, that concern will pale as everyone but the looters is preoccupied with surviving.
That is misleading. The reason for 911 was to create a psychological shock to the society to frighten people into accepting actions, policies, wars, and laws that would otherwise have been stridently opposed. The PATRIOT Act was already written and waiting on the shelf for a situation that would allow its passage. OKC was conducted to pass Klinton's "anti-terror law". Yes there was an agenda behind 911 and it was conducted for a purpose, but that purpose had little or nothing to do with the mythological PsyOp known as Peak Oil. but you still cnt explain why global oil production has been flat, despite so many drills working in such inhospitable places. you wont acknowledge the fact that giant oil fields are declining in production, you wont acknowledge that new discoveries are not keeping up with production, let alone keeping up with increasing demand that's causing price hikes. in other words, all you're going on is your faith... you might be right, but the chances get slimmer with each year that passes and no replacement fields are found the size of the old fields that are depleting. your argument seems to hinge on an oil company conspiracy, yet you cant provide any evidence of that conspiracy, and you cant explain why the most profitable oil company in the world is also the most prominent denier of peak oil, but is be allied with israeli americans who said needed a new pearl harbor just before they got into position to make it happen. but if your belief works for you, that's really all that counts.
Between, The Balkan Formation, Gull Island, the fields off the Florida Coast, and the other massive find in the Gulf we'll hit Peak Oil sometime around the end of this millennium or at least the next - maybe. Peak Oil is about a lot of things. It's a complex web they weaved. Go all the way back to Hemp. Ha. What this is about is control. Total. Including population numbers. If the people knew that we could roar right up to and sustain 20 billion people - well we can't think that way.
what kind of web wouuld be easier to weave? a global conspiracy of hundreds of oil companies and nations to limit oil production, or one conspiracy involving a handful of people who know how to control airplanes from the ground, control the media, the america government, and political system? admittedly, a few truthful news stories surfaced in the immediate aftermath of 9/11, but it didnt take very long for the media to catch on, did it?
What are you talking about? NON Opec production has been STEADILY INCREASING since 1973...... " If you cannot govern yourself, you will be governed by assholes. " Randge, Poet de Forum, 1/11/11 "Life's tough, and even tougher if you're stupid." --John Wayne
do you know the difference between "all liqquids" and "crude oil and condensate"? how many barrels of oil are produced, and counted, and then used to produce a barrel of alcohol, which only has an energy content of 2/3 of a barrel of oil? and despite that, the ethanol is counted in addition to the oil used to produce the ethanol. does that make sense you you? it makes sense to the people who are tring their best to obscure the fact that global oil production seems to have peaked.
That is the key right there. Some people mistakenly think it is about money, but the people orchestrating these shows have money - huge mountains of it. No, what they want is control. Control of energy production - thus we get limited production and suppression of viable alternative technologies - such as Tesla's work. Control of food production - thus using laws to drive out and persecute small family farms and push all production into GMO plants the access to which is controlled along with buying up small seed companies and suppression of natural open pollinated seed. Control of medicine and access to health care. That is what Obamacare is really about. Control of media so as to control the information available to the general public. Control of education and dumbing down and sabotaging the curriculum so that people do not have the intellectual tools to see their way through the maze. It IS all about control - TOTAL CONTROL. We are dealing with psychotic control freaks who have a mania for control. A 10,000 dollar Saville Row suit is no guarantee of sanity. Show me where it has peaked........because the production for non Opec nations has steadily INCREASED. You attempt to obfuscate has failed. Even Opec nation production is on the up swing since 1985, producing at levels barely reached before. America is sitting on oil resources..there has been no peak here either, just a refusal to produce in order to police the world and play empire America with dollar/oil hegemony. " If you cannot govern yourself, you will be governed by assholes. " Randge, Poet de Forum, 1/11/11 "Life's tough, and even tougher if you're stupid." --John Wayne
it's about israel, too... at least, that's the cover story, which is a good one, because it enlists the support of millions of deathwish christian americans. it boils down to this: israel must secure itself from global warming by grabbing the palestinians' high ground in the west bank, and it must do that before its american protection expires from oil shortages. the situation was getiing so desperate, no doubt in the opinion of the AEI/PNAC exxon allies, that something had to be done... which is why they needed a new pearl harbor, which is why their new pearl harbor happened once they got into position to make it happen.
so all those landmen that go around getting permission to drill on private land are in cahoots... the seismic people have not beat america to death looking for possibilies... and the landmen shun the places that have oil, and only drill 200 miles offshore in 10,000 feet of water, and all of this is a big plot run by the rothschilds. good deal.
Long ago the wells were bought by the big boys and capped. Why would big oil need to use those resources when they can simply war around the world and steal the resources of other nations? The oil/dollar hemogony scheme in 1971 was a license to do just that, which is why the big oil boys had to get those contracts for Iraq's oil. Those Iraqis won't balk at crappy practices for extraction and it's a win-win for Israel too, plus the nation is owned by central bankers and convenient for invasion of Iran. BTW, Bakken alone is estimated to increase reserves ten times over (3-4 trillion barrels). There's a field in Utah, Wyoming and Colorado with another two trillion barrels. Then there's the oil in Alaska and all the remains untapped off shore of this nation. In the 1920's thousands of "oil placer claims" were made on public lands and are valid today. The April 2008, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessment shows a 25-fold increase in the amount of oil that can be recovered compared to the agency’s 1995 estimate of a paltry 151 million barrels of oil. That would be 3,775 million (or 3.775 billion) barrels. The U.S. Geological Survey is in direct contradiction to your peak oil claims. " If you cannot govern yourself, you will be governed by assholes. " Randge, Poet de Forum, 1/11/11 "Life's tough, and even tougher if you're stupid." --John Wayne
what you should do is take a vacation, go to some part of the country that used to produce oil but the wells are now capped, and ask the owners of the land how much oil those wells were producing when they were capped. do you have any idea what the average well produces in a day? do you realize that nobody has yet figured out how to get oil out of oil shale, although they've been working on it for decades? do you realize that they're estimating that 30,000 wells will eventurally be drilled in the bakken, and if each of those thirty thousand wells produced what the average well is producing now, total production would just barely cover the deline of texas production? do you know there's a difference between oil shale and shale oil?
that's oil shale, and nobody's figured out ow to produce it yet. it might take a half a barrel of oil (energy equivalent) to get a barrel of oil from the shale. that wipes out half your reserves. of course, the process is so difficult that it might take a barrel and a half of energy equivalent to get a barel of oil out of the shale... ...which takes your reserves down from from a plus two trillion barrels to a minus one trillion barrels... that's not so pretty good.
The stunning news is that we have more oil inside our borders than all the other proven reserves on Earth. : ) According to a June 2008 article in Kiplinger Magazine, the United States has enough oil reserves to power the nation for upwards of three centuries. From the April 2008 study conducted by the United States Geological Survey: "North Dakota and Montana have an estimated 3.0 to 4.3 billion barrels of undiscovered, technically recoverable oil in an area known as the Bakken Formation." The report acknowledges that the available oil reserves could be much larger, but the 3.0 to 4.3 billion figure represents oil RECOVERABLE NOW WITH TODAY'S TECHNOLOGY. In fact, Bakken is going full bore as we speak. The Arctic National Wildlife Refuges (ANWR) has 10 billion barrels available. And beyond the US.......In 2006, the head of the world's largest oil company, Saudi Aramco, said: “We are looking at more than four and a half trillion barrels of potentially recoverable oil. That number translates into 140 years of oil at current rates of consumption, or to put it anther way, the world has only consumed about 18 percent of its conventional oil potential. That fact alone should discredit the argument that peak oil is imminent and put our minds at ease concerning future petrol supplies.” (But what does he know about oil? lol) Much contradiction to your claims for peak oil lead.and.lag. " If you cannot govern yourself, you will be governed by assholes. " Randge, Poet de Forum, 1/11/11 "Life's tough, and even tougher if you're stupid." --John Wayne
...except for the fact that oil production has been flat since late 2004.
For the record, my personal take on it is that we DO NOT NEED oil......we just need to free Tesla's technology for the people. Oil is old school and the peak oil frenzy is fear mongering for folks who can't see other possibilities.
" If you cannot govern yourself, you will be governed by assholes. " Randge, Poet de Forum, 1/11/11 "Life's tough, and even tougher if you're stupid." --John Wayne
Comments (66 - 87) not displayed.
Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latestmaybe we could simplify all this by saying that oil, not love, makes the world go round.
Money makes the Oil go up
Oil Go Up
Oil Go Up
Money makes the Oil go up
Oil Go Up
Oil Go Up
La-Tee Da-Tee Da
#26. To: Original_Intent (#24)
It is a PR/PsyOps bought and paid for by the people who benefit from high oil prices.
#27. To: lead.and.lag (#23)
#28. To: Original_Intent (#25)
Money makes the Oil go up
#29. To: lead.and.lag (#26)
It is a PR/PsyOps bought and paid for by the people who benefit from high oil prices.
#30. To: Original_Intent (#29)
(Edited)
#31. To: abraxas (#27)
What you are missing is that since empire America sold the world on dollar/oil hegemony it has continually used it to exert power over other nation all over the world. All was fine with Iraq while Saddam was willing to be a pliable puppet and continue to trade his oil in DOLLARS. When he threatened to move his oil trading into a basket of currencies empire USA went to war in Iraq....it had NOTHING to do with peak oil.
#32. To: Original_Intent (#31)
Saddam's Iraq did not have a Rothschild controlled Central Bank, and neither did Libya.
#33. To: lead.and.lag (#30)
#34. To: Original_Intent (#31)
#35. To: Original_Intent (#31)
#36. To: Original_Intent (#33)
refused to license any new refineries
#37. To: lead.and.lag (#36)
#38. To: Original_Intent (#24)
Peak Oil ranks right up there with Leprechauns ...
#39. To: Original_Intent (#25)
La-Tee Da-Tee Da
#40. To: All (#36)
(Edited)
#41. To: Phant2000 (#38)
Thanks for your encouragement, OI (not that I needed it ... hehehe)!
#42. To: All (#40)
(Edited)
#43. To: Original_Intent (#41)
#44. To: abraxas (#34)
Exactly. Since the USA controls the price of oil through dollar/oil hegemony it uses the PRICE of oil at whim to extract an ounce of flesh from oil producing nations. Of course, this is now having repercussions in the global chess game as the wealthy increase the price to increase their wealth and then Russia/Iran or other "threats" actually benefit greatly at the same time.
#45. To: Phant2000 (#43)
(Edited)
Too bad my story doesn't work for others.
#46. To: Phant2000 (#43)
Seems to me I gave just such a simple answer and was chastized for it. Too bad my story doesn't work for others.
#47. To: Original_Intent (#46)
(Edited)
All great truths are simple
#48. To: lead.and.lag (#45)
#49. To: All (#47)
#50. To: lead.and.lag (#49)
#51. To: Original_Intent (#50)
(Edited)
#52. To: Original_Intent (#24)
Peak Oil ranks right up there with Leprechauns, the Easter Bunny, Tooth Fairy, Santa Claus, Glowbull Warming, and the "Waronterra". It is a PR/PsyOps bought and paid for by the people who benefit from high oil prices.
#53. To: Cornhuskerkid (#52)
It's a complex web they weaved
#54. To: lead.and.lag (#51)
but you still cnt explain why global oil production has been flat, despite so many drills working in such inhospitable places.
#55. To: abraxas (#54)
(Edited)
NON Opec production has been STEADILY INCREASING since 1973
#56. To: Cornhuskerkid (#52)
What this is about is control.
#57. To: lead.and.lag (#55)
(Edited)
#58. To: Original_Intent (#56)
(Edited)
It IS all about control - TOTAL CONTROL
#59. To: abraxas (#57)
(Edited)
America is sitting on oil resources..there has been no peak here
#60. To: lead.and.lag (#59)
America is sitting on oil resources..there has been no peak here
#61. To: abraxas (#60)
Long ago the wells were bought by the big boys and capped
#62. To: abraxas (#60)
(Edited)
There's a field in Utah, Wyoming and Colorado with another two trillion barrels.
#63. To: lead.and.lag (#62)
#64. To: abraxas (#63)
Much contradiction to your claims for peak oil...
#65. To: lead.and.lag (#62)
.
.
.