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Title: from Texas_Engineer, posting at The Oil Drum
Source:
drumbeat, December 26, 2011
URL Source: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/8766/860272
Published: Dec 26, 2011
Author: texas engineer
Post Date: 2011-12-26 18:29:06 by lead.and.lag
Keywords: None
Views: 1308
Comments: 87
Human beings are not creatures of facts and logic - they are people who live in stories. This is not new - it has always been that way. We have certain collective narratives that almost everyone automatically accept without further thought. It is how we make sense of the world. These narratives keep us sane by allowing us to filter out the hurricane of information swirling around us daily and making some sense of it. The current narrative that most people subscribe to is that economic growth will eventually return or we have plenty of oil but the government is not letting is drill for it. For that reason I am not convinced that you will ever convince the average citizen (not a technical person) by showing them data. I am a data person and I have tried it with my family and their eyes glaze over. So I think you can only change people's views is by constantly telling them a different story - one that is consistent with their current experience. It worked pretty well with my family. A story something like this: If peak oil is a possibility - what would it be like? Well for starters the peak oil story is not about potential oil under the ground. That oil is irrelevant because it cannot be used. Peak oil is only about one thing - the ongoing flow rate of oil into the economy. For all of the last century and up until about 2005 that flow rate grew steadily. But that flow rate pretty much came to a halt in about 2005 and for the last half decade could not grow. And as you would expect the global oil price started to rise. That's what happens when supply cannot keep up with demand. Economists told us not to worry - Mr. Market would immediately react with increased supplies, reducing price - but it did not happen. The global oil price (Brent Crude) is now consistently above $100 per barrel after staying below $20 for most of the last century. This is what peak oil is like. This is what peak oil was predicted to be like. High energy prices eat away at the economy by pouring sand into the gears of the economy. Every country in the world tried to compensate for this slowdown by increasing debt. The world is now ludicrously broke - with no chance of paying off this debt bubble. This is peak oil - it is not about resources under the ground - it is about oil production rate - and high oil prices. Don't tell me peak oil cannot happen - it is happening. I have personally found that my family is stumped when I present this story in this way. They don't have an answer. But the story caused a few of them to ask to see some data. Then I showed them the data. Now they are worried and they hate me :-)
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#37. To: lead.and.lag (#36)
Hey, lead.and.lag., according to this even longer view there was a spike in oil prices back in 1869 up to $75 dollars prior to stabilizing around $20 dollars until 1971.....was that spike due to peak oil? " If you cannot govern yourself, you will be governed by assholes. " Randge, Poet de Forum, 1/11/11 "Life's tough, and even tougher if you're stupid." --John Wayne
Thanks for your encouragement, OI (not that I needed it ... hehehe)!
OI, don't you be taking away the fun of the fat lady singing.
in the long run, it's good that we have so many stories to believe in... pick your favorite, and stick with it! it's good from a human survival standpoint... out of so many haywire theories, somebody's bound to be right, and if they act on their belefs, they stand a better chance of surviving.
You're most welcome. ;-) Peak Oilers are like O'bots, Kristyun Zionists, and true believer Marxists. Facts are irrelevant, evidence is irrelevant, the commonalty boils down to one of two things: 1. I beeeeeeeeeeeeeelieeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeve. 2. I get paaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaid. since the people who were wrong will kill each other off squabbling over that last gallon of exxon gasoline, the people who stayed out of the fight will stand a better chance of surviving... seeing as how so much of the ocompetition killed each other off. good deal.
Seems to me I gave just such a simple answer and was chastized for it. Too bad my story doesn't work for others.
Goldman Sachs has long had more to do with the price of Oil than supply, demand or production. Denial of this obvious fact doesn't change it one iota. Yes, one could call it monetary parasitology. Yes, the Russians have got to be yukking it up. The Western financial interests are in a trap. They are so over extended through derivatives and other financial gambling that they are having to print money hand over fist and create ever more zeros. They can no longer depress the price of oil to starve the Russian economic machine and keep them down otherwise they collapse too. To prevent hyperinflation and monetary system collapse they have to keep oil the primary energy source and control the price of oil or the house of cards collapses. oh, it works for most people, never fear. nevermind that you have no substiation for your story of artifical oil shortages, and there's lots of evidence that people are looking hard for more oil, but they cant find anything approaching the quantities they need to replace the old giant fields that are starting to decline.
All great truths are simple. If someone is attempting to make the truth complex it is generally a sign they are trying to hornswoggle people and create a fog of untruths. That by the way is a sure fire way to spot a professional disinformationist on a forum - if you have someone who trying to create a confusion of complexity it generally means that they are either a shill or dirt dumb. Both types are well represented at FreepTardia. let this thread cool off, come back in a couple days and read it. then, if you're honest, you'll see who's making the complicated arguments. meanwhile, the truth is simple: no amount of wishful thinking will get more than five pounds of shit out of a five pound bag.
Russia doesn't seem to be having any problems in creasing production. Venezuela is increasing oil production. Iran is increasing oil production. Apparently if America isn't butting in, production increases. And the ONLY reason it isn't increasing in America is not due to inability to produce it, but rather will to produce oil. Refusing to produce oil is what empire America depends upon for an excuse to butt into every other nations affairs. If we got to producing our own resources instead of policing the world with dollar/oil hegemony it would be the end of empire USA and the MIC and the warring world wide for central bankers. Just look how great Libya was doing in increased production before we butting in over there....... " If you cannot govern yourself, you will be governed by assholes. " Randge, Poet de Forum, 1/11/11 "Life's tough, and even tougher if you're stupid." --John Wayne
anyhow, just to summarize... the most dangerous thing about the idea of peak oil, at this point, is that it explains why the neocons did 9/11. as we work down the back side of the prodcution curve, that concern will pale as everyone but the looters is preoccupied with surviving.
That is misleading. The reason for 911 was to create a psychological shock to the society to frighten people into accepting actions, policies, wars, and laws that would otherwise have been stridently opposed. The PATRIOT Act was already written and waiting on the shelf for a situation that would allow its passage. OKC was conducted to pass Klinton's "anti-terror law". Yes there was an agenda behind 911 and it was conducted for a purpose, but that purpose had little or nothing to do with the mythological PsyOp known as Peak Oil. but you still cnt explain why global oil production has been flat, despite so many drills working in such inhospitable places. you wont acknowledge the fact that giant oil fields are declining in production, you wont acknowledge that new discoveries are not keeping up with production, let alone keeping up with increasing demand that's causing price hikes. in other words, all you're going on is your faith... you might be right, but the chances get slimmer with each year that passes and no replacement fields are found the size of the old fields that are depleting. your argument seems to hinge on an oil company conspiracy, yet you cant provide any evidence of that conspiracy, and you cant explain why the most profitable oil company in the world is also the most prominent denier of peak oil, but is be allied with israeli americans who said needed a new pearl harbor just before they got into position to make it happen. but if your belief works for you, that's really all that counts.
Between, The Balkan Formation, Gull Island, the fields off the Florida Coast, and the other massive find in the Gulf we'll hit Peak Oil sometime around the end of this millennium or at least the next - maybe. Peak Oil is about a lot of things. It's a complex web they weaved. Go all the way back to Hemp. Ha. What this is about is control. Total. Including population numbers. If the people knew that we could roar right up to and sustain 20 billion people - well we can't think that way.
what kind of web wouuld be easier to weave? a global conspiracy of hundreds of oil companies and nations to limit oil production, or one conspiracy involving a handful of people who know how to control airplanes from the ground, control the media, the america government, and political system? admittedly, a few truthful news stories surfaced in the immediate aftermath of 9/11, but it didnt take very long for the media to catch on, did it?
What are you talking about? NON Opec production has been STEADILY INCREASING since 1973...... " If you cannot govern yourself, you will be governed by assholes. " Randge, Poet de Forum, 1/11/11 "Life's tough, and even tougher if you're stupid." --John Wayne
do you know the difference between "all liqquids" and "crude oil and condensate"? how many barrels of oil are produced, and counted, and then used to produce a barrel of alcohol, which only has an energy content of 2/3 of a barrel of oil? and despite that, the ethanol is counted in addition to the oil used to produce the ethanol. does that make sense you you? it makes sense to the people who are tring their best to obscure the fact that global oil production seems to have peaked.
That is the key right there. Some people mistakenly think it is about money, but the people orchestrating these shows have money - huge mountains of it. No, what they want is control. Control of energy production - thus we get limited production and suppression of viable alternative technologies - such as Tesla's work. Control of food production - thus using laws to drive out and persecute small family farms and push all production into GMO plants the access to which is controlled along with buying up small seed companies and suppression of natural open pollinated seed. Control of medicine and access to health care. That is what Obamacare is really about. Control of media so as to control the information available to the general public. Control of education and dumbing down and sabotaging the curriculum so that people do not have the intellectual tools to see their way through the maze. It IS all about control - TOTAL CONTROL. We are dealing with psychotic control freaks who have a mania for control. A 10,000 dollar Saville Row suit is no guarantee of sanity. Show me where it has peaked........because the production for non Opec nations has steadily INCREASED. You attempt to obfuscate has failed. Even Opec nation production is on the up swing since 1985, producing at levels barely reached before. America is sitting on oil resources..there has been no peak here either, just a refusal to produce in order to police the world and play empire America with dollar/oil hegemony. " If you cannot govern yourself, you will be governed by assholes. " Randge, Poet de Forum, 1/11/11 "Life's tough, and even tougher if you're stupid." --John Wayne
it's about israel, too... at least, that's the cover story, which is a good one, because it enlists the support of millions of deathwish christian americans. it boils down to this: israel must secure itself from global warming by grabbing the palestinians' high ground in the west bank, and it must do that before its american protection expires from oil shortages. the situation was getiing so desperate, no doubt in the opinion of the AEI/PNAC exxon allies, that something had to be done... which is why they needed a new pearl harbor, which is why their new pearl harbor happened once they got into position to make it happen.
so all those landmen that go around getting permission to drill on private land are in cahoots... the seismic people have not beat america to death looking for possibilies... and the landmen shun the places that have oil, and only drill 200 miles offshore in 10,000 feet of water, and all of this is a big plot run by the rothschilds. good deal.
Long ago the wells were bought by the big boys and capped. Why would big oil need to use those resources when they can simply war around the world and steal the resources of other nations? The oil/dollar hemogony scheme in 1971 was a license to do just that, which is why the big oil boys had to get those contracts for Iraq's oil. Those Iraqis won't balk at crappy practices for extraction and it's a win-win for Israel too, plus the nation is owned by central bankers and convenient for invasion of Iran. BTW, Bakken alone is estimated to increase reserves ten times over (3-4 trillion barrels). There's a field in Utah, Wyoming and Colorado with another two trillion barrels. Then there's the oil in Alaska and all the remains untapped off shore of this nation. In the 1920's thousands of "oil placer claims" were made on public lands and are valid today. The April 2008, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessment shows a 25-fold increase in the amount of oil that can be recovered compared to the agency’s 1995 estimate of a paltry 151 million barrels of oil. That would be 3,775 million (or 3.775 billion) barrels. The U.S. Geological Survey is in direct contradiction to your peak oil claims. " If you cannot govern yourself, you will be governed by assholes. " Randge, Poet de Forum, 1/11/11 "Life's tough, and even tougher if you're stupid." --John Wayne
what you should do is take a vacation, go to some part of the country that used to produce oil but the wells are now capped, and ask the owners of the land how much oil those wells were producing when they were capped. do you have any idea what the average well produces in a day? do you realize that nobody has yet figured out how to get oil out of oil shale, although they've been working on it for decades? do you realize that they're estimating that 30,000 wells will eventurally be drilled in the bakken, and if each of those thirty thousand wells produced what the average well is producing now, total production would just barely cover the deline of texas production? do you know there's a difference between oil shale and shale oil?
that's oil shale, and nobody's figured out ow to produce it yet. it might take a half a barrel of oil (energy equivalent) to get a barrel of oil from the shale. that wipes out half your reserves. of course, the process is so difficult that it might take a barrel and a half of energy equivalent to get a barel of oil out of the shale... ...which takes your reserves down from from a plus two trillion barrels to a minus one trillion barrels... that's not so pretty good.
The stunning news is that we have more oil inside our borders than all the other proven reserves on Earth. : ) According to a June 2008 article in Kiplinger Magazine, the United States has enough oil reserves to power the nation for upwards of three centuries. From the April 2008 study conducted by the United States Geological Survey: "North Dakota and Montana have an estimated 3.0 to 4.3 billion barrels of undiscovered, technically recoverable oil in an area known as the Bakken Formation." The report acknowledges that the available oil reserves could be much larger, but the 3.0 to 4.3 billion figure represents oil RECOVERABLE NOW WITH TODAY'S TECHNOLOGY. In fact, Bakken is going full bore as we speak. The Arctic National Wildlife Refuges (ANWR) has 10 billion barrels available. And beyond the US.......In 2006, the head of the world's largest oil company, Saudi Aramco, said: “We are looking at more than four and a half trillion barrels of potentially recoverable oil. That number translates into 140 years of oil at current rates of consumption, or to put it anther way, the world has only consumed about 18 percent of its conventional oil potential. That fact alone should discredit the argument that peak oil is imminent and put our minds at ease concerning future petrol supplies.” (But what does he know about oil? lol) Much contradiction to your claims for peak oil lead.and.lag. " If you cannot govern yourself, you will be governed by assholes. " Randge, Poet de Forum, 1/11/11 "Life's tough, and even tougher if you're stupid." --John Wayne
...except for the fact that oil production has been flat since late 2004.
For the record, my personal take on it is that we DO NOT NEED oil......we just need to free Tesla's technology for the people. Oil is old school and the peak oil frenzy is fear mongering for folks who can't see other possibilities.
" If you cannot govern yourself, you will be governed by assholes. " Randge, Poet de Forum, 1/11/11 "Life's tough, and even tougher if you're stupid." --John Wayne
what it boils down to... you can either come up with evidence of a global plot to restrict oil production, or you can post evidence that oil production is increasing enough to keep up with demand. goldman sachs figured out how to get out of this trap: they crashed the economy, which destroyed demand for oil.
That's what you claim......but you offer no support for it. I have offered US Geological surveys, maps, excerpts from articles, quotes for producers, but all you offer is your claim to flat production over a six year span while the Iraqi fields were not producing due to the empire bombing them. Basically, the Saudi's increased production to pick up the slack during that attack per GW's instruction and assurance that the price would increase dramatically for them to enrich themselves, which has NOTHING to do with Peak Oil. Have you ever investigated Opec's price fixing.....produce less to get a price increase is an old game. Make a deal to get a price increase is also very old school. You know America was the biggest oil producer in the world at the turn of the century so they have a lot of experience in how to rig the game with many dupes to fall for the same ol' crap over and over again. Oh noes, peak oil means we HAVE to war more and we HAVE to frighten the people and we HAVE to tax the crap out of them and we HAVE to pretend there is no alternatives to oil. Why do you fall for this crap? " If you cannot govern yourself, you will be governed by assholes. " Randge, Poet de Forum, 1/11/11 "Life's tough, and even tougher if you're stupid." --John Wayne
peak oil means we will have wars because we are too goddamned stupid, too enslaved to israel, and too misinformed to cooperate in dealing with peak oil. as a consequence of peak oil, our enslavement to israel, and the oil wars, the situation will soon enough degenerate to the point that peak oil itself will be pretty far down on our list of worries. now then, all you got to do is produce enough oil to prove that peak oil is a scam, just produce the oil, that's all... but first you'll have to convince israel that global warming is a scam so they dont have to worry about grabbing palestinian land, so they dont need american protection... ...while you're at it, you can convince them that co2 is not a warming gas, convince them that the world is not producing an extra 30 billion tons of the stuff every year, that america will not run out of oil, and they can slack off this neverending push for more wars.
Your peak oil and your global warming scare mongering are simply JUSTIFICATION and EXCUSES for what you claim to disdain. It's JUSTIFICATION to roll in that "New World Order" to save the lot of us....it's ridiculous!
" If you cannot govern yourself, you will be governed by assholes. " Randge, Poet de Forum, 1/11/11 "Life's tough, and even tougher if you're stupid." --John Wayne
nope, it's just the reason why all this stuff is happening. if enough people connected the dots, and realized the moral peril jewishness and america are in, we might have a chance at dealing sensibly with these problems. pretty much of a long shot.
You are duped....they tell you what to think and you believe it. It is NOT the reason. It's another parlor trick lead.and.lag. Why do you fall for it? " If you cannot govern yourself, you will be governed by assholes. " Randge, Poet de Forum, 1/11/11 "Life's tough, and even tougher if you're stupid." --John Wayne
peak oil's been on a few people's radar for quite a while, but if it was a big organized scare tactic, it would be hammered into us 24/7 by the israeli american media. instead, though, we got this yergin guy, mealymouthed little shill from CERA and brookings, saying, "party on, dudes... there's lots of oil." the fact that global oil production has been flat for seven years should be big news, but it isnt because then everybody would understand why we're bombing oily arabs, and other muslims who live on supply routes, and are threatening to wreck persia. but worst of all, people would be able to connect peak oil to PNAC and their new pearl harbor and 9/11.
If I recall correctly the estimate was recently increased and we are now up to around 5 centuries worth. Of course that is before you include the Alaskan Reserves - Gull Island alone, per the leaked estimates, has as much oil as the Saudi Reserves. As well, as I mentioned earlier, there are the fields off of the Florida coast, and reserves off of Louisiana that are immense - and not as deep as BP was drilling. No the PTB not only do not want to see the price go down but they wish to control us by rationing energy. Peak Oil was supposed to provide a justification but there is too much information now in the public domain for it to be any longer a salable BS line. Of course Glowbull Warming is still being pushed because they want their Carbon Tax and the control that comes with that. Iraq was bombed after Saddam began to set in place a basket of currencies to trade Iraqi Oil and refusing to play the oil/dollar hegemony game. It had NOTHING TO DO WITH PEAK OIL!! PNAC is in place for a "New World Order" of GLOBAL CONTROL......not to counter the trumped up threats of peak oil or global warming. Sheesh, when the solution is to tax the crap out of people and bring in global treaties to crush sovereignty and line the pockets of the MIC it should be OBVIOUS it is not in place to save you from the trumped up threats of peak oil and global warming. " If you cannot govern yourself, you will be governed by assholes. " Randge, Poet de Forum, 1/11/11 "Life's tough, and even tougher if you're stupid." --John Wayne
North Dakota is booming right now cause of oil, unemployment there is under 2%. McDonald's start workers at over $16 an hour there. The sky is not falling, but some have a vested interest in making you think the sky is falling to make record profits off you at the gas pump.
God is always good!
i've posted the story i think is most likely to be the truth. you can take it or leave it, but you should understand if you choose to leave it, you're playing into the hands of the worst bunch of slimeballs who've come down the pike since... name your poison. people can read this thread and make up their minds about which story they prefer, they can form an opinion of whose side i'm on, they can decide who are the dupes. so, good night to Phant2000,James Deffenbach, PSUSA2, Cornhuskerkid, Lod, abraxas, X-15, ricky and OI, and happy new year.
There's lots of oil, I'm not worried. If somebody is peddling a shortage you need to look closer to what they're selling to ease your mind. Go buy that new 2012 Shelby GT-500 Mustang and live it up!!!
#38. To: Original_Intent (#24)
Peak Oil ranks right up there with Leprechauns ...
#39. To: Original_Intent (#25)
La-Tee Da-Tee Da
#40. To: All (#36)
(Edited)
#41. To: Phant2000 (#38)
Thanks for your encouragement, OI (not that I needed it ... hehehe)!
#42. To: All (#40)
(Edited)
#43. To: Original_Intent (#41)
#44. To: abraxas (#34)
Exactly. Since the USA controls the price of oil through dollar/oil hegemony it uses the PRICE of oil at whim to extract an ounce of flesh from oil producing nations. Of course, this is now having repercussions in the global chess game as the wealthy increase the price to increase their wealth and then Russia/Iran or other "threats" actually benefit greatly at the same time.
#45. To: Phant2000 (#43)
(Edited)
Too bad my story doesn't work for others.
#46. To: Phant2000 (#43)
Seems to me I gave just such a simple answer and was chastized for it. Too bad my story doesn't work for others.
#47. To: Original_Intent (#46)
(Edited)
All great truths are simple
#48. To: lead.and.lag (#45)
#49. To: All (#47)
#50. To: lead.and.lag (#49)
#51. To: Original_Intent (#50)
(Edited)
#52. To: Original_Intent (#24)
Peak Oil ranks right up there with Leprechauns, the Easter Bunny, Tooth Fairy, Santa Claus, Glowbull Warming, and the "Waronterra". It is a PR/PsyOps bought and paid for by the people who benefit from high oil prices.
#53. To: Cornhuskerkid (#52)
It's a complex web they weaved
#54. To: lead.and.lag (#51)
but you still cnt explain why global oil production has been flat, despite so many drills working in such inhospitable places.
#55. To: abraxas (#54)
(Edited)
NON Opec production has been STEADILY INCREASING since 1973
#56. To: Cornhuskerkid (#52)
What this is about is control.
#57. To: lead.and.lag (#55)
(Edited)
#58. To: Original_Intent (#56)
(Edited)
It IS all about control - TOTAL CONTROL
#59. To: abraxas (#57)
(Edited)
America is sitting on oil resources..there has been no peak here
#60. To: lead.and.lag (#59)
America is sitting on oil resources..there has been no peak here
#61. To: abraxas (#60)
Long ago the wells were bought by the big boys and capped
#62. To: abraxas (#60)
(Edited)
There's a field in Utah, Wyoming and Colorado with another two trillion barrels.
#63. To: lead.and.lag (#62)
#64. To: abraxas (#63)
Much contradiction to your claims for peak oil...
#65. To: lead.and.lag (#62)
#66. To: All (#64)
#67. To: lead.and.lag (#64)
#68. To: abraxas (#67)
(Edited)
peak oil means we HAVE to war more and we HAVE to frighten the people and we HAVE to tax the crap out of them and we HAVE to pretend there is no alternatives to oil.
#69. To: lead.and.lag (#68)
#70. To: abraxas (#69)
(Edited)
It's JUSTIFICATION
#71. To: lead.and.lag (#70)
it's just the reason why all this stuff is happening.
#72. To: abraxas (#71)
(Edited)
....they tell you what to think
#73. To: abraxas (#63)
From the April 2008 study conducted by the United States Geological Survey: "North Dakota and Montana have an estimated 3.0 to 4.3 billion barrels of undiscovered, technically recoverable oil in an area known as the Bakken Formation." The report acknowledges that the available oil reserves could be much larger, but the 3.0 to 4.3 billion figure represents oil RECOVERABLE NOW WITH TODAY'S TECHNOLOGY. In fact, Bakken is going full bore as we speak.
#74. To: lead.and.lag (#72)
it isnt because then everybody would understand why we're boming oily arabs
#75. To: lead.and.lag (#0)
#76. To: abraxas (#74)
(Edited)
#77. To: lead.and.lag (#72)
-Alex Kurtagic
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