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Title: from Texas_Engineer, posting at The Oil Drum
Source:
drumbeat, December 26, 2011
URL Source: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/8766/860272
Published: Dec 26, 2011
Author: texas engineer
Post Date: 2011-12-26 18:29:06 by lead.and.lag
Keywords: None
Views: 1453
Comments: 87
Human beings are not creatures of facts and logic - they are people who live in stories. This is not new - it has always been that way. We have certain collective narratives that almost everyone automatically accept without further thought. It is how we make sense of the world. These narratives keep us sane by allowing us to filter out the hurricane of information swirling around us daily and making some sense of it. The current narrative that most people subscribe to is that economic growth will eventually return or we have plenty of oil but the government is not letting is drill for it. For that reason I am not convinced that you will ever convince the average citizen (not a technical person) by showing them data. I am a data person and I have tried it with my family and their eyes glaze over. So I think you can only change people's views is by constantly telling them a different story - one that is consistent with their current experience. It worked pretty well with my family. A story something like this: If peak oil is a possibility - what would it be like? Well for starters the peak oil story is not about potential oil under the ground. That oil is irrelevant because it cannot be used. Peak oil is only about one thing - the ongoing flow rate of oil into the economy. For all of the last century and up until about 2005 that flow rate grew steadily. But that flow rate pretty much came to a halt in about 2005 and for the last half decade could not grow. And as you would expect the global oil price started to rise. That's what happens when supply cannot keep up with demand. Economists told us not to worry - Mr. Market would immediately react with increased supplies, reducing price - but it did not happen. The global oil price (Brent Crude) is now consistently above $100 per barrel after staying below $20 for most of the last century. This is what peak oil is like. This is what peak oil was predicted to be like. High energy prices eat away at the economy by pouring sand into the gears of the economy. Every country in the world tried to compensate for this slowdown by increasing debt. The world is now ludicrously broke - with no chance of paying off this debt bubble. This is peak oil - it is not about resources under the ground - it is about oil production rate - and high oil prices. Don't tell me peak oil cannot happen - it is happening. I have personally found that my family is stumped when I present this story in this way. They don't have an answer. But the story caused a few of them to ask to see some data. Then I showed them the data. Now they are worried and they hate me :-)
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Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 65.
#1. To: lead.and.lag (#0)
What does it say about a society that hates you for telling the truth? The oil shortage is man made and for a purpose. Ignorance fuels the fire of man made shortages and makes them sustainable and VERY profitable.
you are supposedly from texas. texas oil production peaked in the early 70s. why?
texas oil production peaked in the early 70s. why? I'm not from Texas, but Southern California. I lived in Dallas for a few years, but not since 2005. I was in the legal profession, not the oil industry. However, my untrained understanding of oil peaking is production declines due to resource depletion. However, you are asking about Texas. What about the resources that are available in the entire U.S?
Peak Oil ranks right up there with Leprechauns, the Easter Bunny, Tooth Fairy, Santa Claus, Glowbull Warming, and the "Waronterra". It is a PR/PsyOps bought and paid for by the people who benefit from high oil prices. Between, The Balkan Formation, Gull Island, the fields off the Florida Coast, and the other massive find in the Gulf we'll hit Peak Oil sometime around the end of this millennium or at least the next - maybe.
Thanks for your encouragement, OI (not that I needed it ... hehehe)!
You're most welcome. ;-) Peak Oilers are like O'bots, Kristyun Zionists, and true believer Marxists. Facts are irrelevant, evidence is irrelevant, the commonalty boils down to one of two things: 1. I beeeeeeeeeeeeeelieeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeve. 2. I get paaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaid.
Seems to me I gave just such a simple answer and was chastized for it. Too bad my story doesn't work for others.
All great truths are simple. If someone is attempting to make the truth complex it is generally a sign they are trying to hornswoggle people and create a fog of untruths. That by the way is a sure fire way to spot a professional disinformationist on a forum - if you have someone who trying to create a confusion of complexity it generally means that they are either a shill or dirt dumb. Both types are well represented at FreepTardia.
let this thread cool off, come back in a couple days and read it. then, if you're honest, you'll see who's making the complicated arguments. meanwhile, the truth is simple: no amount of wishful thinking will get more than five pounds of shit out of a five pound bag.
anyhow, just to summarize... the most dangerous thing about the idea of peak oil, at this point, is that it explains why the neocons did 9/11. as we work down the back side of the prodcution curve, that concern will pale as everyone but the looters is preoccupied with surviving.
That is misleading. The reason for 911 was to create a psychological shock to the society to frighten people into accepting actions, policies, wars, and laws that would otherwise have been stridently opposed. The PATRIOT Act was already written and waiting on the shelf for a situation that would allow its passage. OKC was conducted to pass Klinton's "anti-terror law". Yes there was an agenda behind 911 and it was conducted for a purpose, but that purpose had little or nothing to do with the mythological PsyOp known as Peak Oil.
but you still cnt explain why global oil production has been flat, despite so many drills working in such inhospitable places. you wont acknowledge the fact that giant oil fields are declining in production, you wont acknowledge that new discoveries are not keeping up with production, let alone keeping up with increasing demand that's causing price hikes. in other words, all you're going on is your faith... you might be right, but the chances get slimmer with each year that passes and no replacement fields are found the size of the old fields that are depleting. your argument seems to hinge on an oil company conspiracy, yet you cant provide any evidence of that conspiracy, and you cant explain why the most profitable oil company in the world is also the most prominent denier of peak oil, but is be allied with israeli americans who said needed a new pearl harbor just before they got into position to make it happen. but if your belief works for you, that's really all that counts.
What are you talking about? NON Opec production has been STEADILY INCREASING since 1973......
do you know the difference between "all liqquids" and "crude oil and condensate"? how many barrels of oil are produced, and counted, and then used to produce a barrel of alcohol, which only has an energy content of 2/3 of a barrel of oil? and despite that, the ethanol is counted in addition to the oil used to produce the ethanol. does that make sense you you? it makes sense to the people who are tring their best to obscure the fact that global oil production seems to have peaked.
Show me where it has peaked........because the production for non Opec nations has steadily INCREASED. You attempt to obfuscate has failed. Even Opec nation production is on the up swing since 1985, producing at levels barely reached before. America is sitting on oil resources..there has been no peak here either, just a refusal to produce in order to police the world and play empire America with dollar/oil hegemony.
so all those landmen that go around getting permission to drill on private land are in cahoots... the seismic people have not beat america to death looking for possibilies... and the landmen shun the places that have oil, and only drill 200 miles offshore in 10,000 feet of water, and all of this is a big plot run by the rothschilds. good deal.
Long ago the wells were bought by the big boys and capped. Why would big oil need to use those resources when they can simply war around the world and steal the resources of other nations? The oil/dollar hemogony scheme in 1971 was a license to do just that, which is why the big oil boys had to get those contracts for Iraq's oil. Those Iraqis won't balk at crappy practices for extraction and it's a win-win for Israel too, plus the nation is owned by central bankers and convenient for invasion of Iran. BTW, Bakken alone is estimated to increase reserves ten times over (3-4 trillion barrels). There's a field in Utah, Wyoming and Colorado with another two trillion barrels. Then there's the oil in Alaska and all the remains untapped off shore of this nation. In the 1920's thousands of "oil placer claims" were made on public lands and are valid today. The April 2008, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessment shows a 25-fold increase in the amount of oil that can be recovered compared to the agency’s 1995 estimate of a paltry 151 million barrels of oil. That would be 3,775 million (or 3.775 billion) barrels. The U.S. Geological Survey is in direct contradiction to your peak oil claims.
that's oil shale, and nobody's figured out ow to produce it yet. it might take a half a barrel of oil (energy equivalent) to get a barrel of oil from the shale. that wipes out half your reserves. of course, the process is so difficult that it might take a barrel and a half of energy equivalent to get a barel of oil out of the shale... ...which takes your reserves down from from a plus two trillion barrels to a minus one trillion barrels... that's not so pretty good.
For the record, my personal take on it is that we DO NOT NEED oil......we just need to free Tesla's technology for the people. Oil is old school and the peak oil frenzy is fear mongering for folks who can't see other possibilities.
#82. To: abraxas (#65)
Word!
Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/LatestNow they are worried and they hate me.
#2. To: Phant2000 (#1)
(Edited)
What does it say
#7. To: lead.and.lag (#2)
you are supposedly from texas.
#24. To: Phant2000 (#7)
#38. To: Original_Intent (#24)
Peak Oil ranks right up there with Leprechauns ...
#41. To: Phant2000 (#38)
Thanks for your encouragement, OI (not that I needed it ... hehehe)!
#43. To: Original_Intent (#41)
#46. To: Phant2000 (#43)
Seems to me I gave just such a simple answer and was chastized for it. Too bad my story doesn't work for others.
#47. To: Original_Intent (#46)
(Edited)
All great truths are simple
#49. To: All (#47)
#50. To: lead.and.lag (#49)
#51. To: Original_Intent (#50)
(Edited)
#54. To: lead.and.lag (#51)
but you still cnt explain why global oil production has been flat, despite so many drills working in such inhospitable places.
#55. To: abraxas (#54)
(Edited)
NON Opec production has been STEADILY INCREASING since 1973
#57. To: lead.and.lag (#55)
(Edited)
#59. To: abraxas (#57)
(Edited)
America is sitting on oil resources..there has been no peak here
#60. To: lead.and.lag (#59)
America is sitting on oil resources..there has been no peak here
#62. To: abraxas (#60)
(Edited)
There's a field in Utah, Wyoming and Colorado with another two trillion barrels.
#65. To: lead.and.lag (#62)
Replies to Comment # 65. For the record, my personal take on it is that we DO NOT NEED oil......we just need to free Tesla's technology for the people. Oil is old school and the peak oil frenzy is fear mongering for folks who can't see other possibilities.
End Trace Mode for Comment # 65.