Ron Paul maintains slim lead in new survey by Democratic polling company Mary Stegmeir
8:53 AM, Jan 2, 2012
A new survey of likely Iowa Republican caucus voters shows Ron Paul with a slim lead over Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum.
The Public Policy Poll included 1,340 likely Republican caucus voters, and was conducted Saturday and Sunday.
Results show Paul with 20 percent of the vote, followed closely by Romney with 19 percent and Santorum with 18 percent.
The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.7 percent.
“It’s impossible to say who’s going to win Tuesday night,” Dean Debnam, PPP president said in a press release. “If you think momentum will be the most important factor that’s an argument for Santorum. If you think having the most passionate supporters will be the most important factor that’s an argument for Paul. And if you think the ability to beat Barack Obama will be the most important factor that’s an argument for Romney.”
Rounding out the field are Newt Gingrich at 14 percent, Rick Perry at 10 percent, Michele Bachmann at 3 percent, Jon Huntsman at 4 percent and Buddy Roemer at 2 percent.
PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its 2010 surveys actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Romney currently leads Real Clear Politics’ rolling average of polling. Those figures, which average the results of the Public Policy survey and other recent polls, including The Des Moines Register’s Iowa Poll, have Romney at 22.8 percent, Paul with 21.5 percent and Santorum at 16.3 percent.
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