Romney Vs Paul: Experts Agree GOP Contest Now A Two Horse Race
Santorum has no campaign structure beyond Iowa
January 4, 2012
GOP insiders and political analysts agree that Rick Santorum placed all his eggs in one Iowa basket and has neither the funding nor the organisation to forge any kind of momentum beyond the Hawkeye State.
The only two candidates who have both the propulsion AND the support base to progress significantly are Mitt Romney and Congressman Ron Paul.
Despite trailing Romney by only eight votes in Iowa, Santorum has neither the money nor the staff or structure to move forward in the race.
Santorum essentially spent an entire year in Iowa, painstakingly visiting every single one of the states 99 counties, while Paul and Romney have forged national campaign networks that the former Pennsylvania Senator can only dream of.
He cant replicate it in any other state because theres no state that he can spend a year in between now and election day. notes Kenneth Sherrill, a political science professor at Hunter College in New York.
The question is, now that hes in the top two in Iowa
going forward, does he have a campaign underneath him? And the answer is unfortunately, no. said Charlie Black, a former adviser to 2008 Republican presidential nominee John McCain.
Santorum has almost no organization in New Hampshire, says Fergus Cullen, a former state GOP chairman. He worked very hard here in the first six months, but has almost nothing to show for it.
Cullen compares Santorum to former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, who won the Iowa caucuses in 2008 and then pulled in just 11% the following week in New Hampshire.
Single-state strategies rarely are effective long-term, and many Republicans say this is no exception. Santorum has had neither the money nor the organization to get traction here. writes political analyst Lois Romano.
It will take more than sheer joy and political dexterity for his small organization here to lift him from fifth place in the Granite State. she adds.
Even Santorums own campaign staff admit that they do not really have any kind of foothold beyond Iowa, with Santorum currently pulling in between 4 and 5 percent in the Granite State.
Indeed, Santorums campaign has only five paid staff in New Hampshire and four in South Carolina, compared with the veritable armies of Romney and Paul staffers in those states.
Furthermore, Santorums strong showing in Iowa owed much to support from culturally conservative evangelical voters, who made up nearly 60 percent of GOP caucus-goers Tuesday. Those kind of voters will be nowhere to be seen in New Hampshire.
The kind of voters who Santorum is relying on in Iowa dont exist here, so hes going to have a hard time, said Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshires Survey Center.
Hes got a very narrow message which is Im the most conservative candidate. And I think when we get to South Carolina, the question is going to be one of experience and one of electability, and I dont think hes going to win either, said Republican strategist Jim Dyke.
Santorums contention that he is in any way widely electable was shot into flames before he even started campaigning, given that in 2006 he lost his crucial Senate seat to Democrat Bob Casey by an 18-point margin, the largest Senate loss in Pennsylvania history and the largest in the country that year.
Santorum says he is relying on grass roots support that he has been building for the last year. However, when it comes to the grass roots there is no candidate stronger than Ron Paul, who has been building his now extensive base for two consistent decades.
Every single poll for months has indicated that Romney and Paul are almost certain of a one, two finish in New Hampshire. In addition, John Huntsman completely skipped Iowa in order to build a stronger support base in New Hampshire. It seems to have worked as he is currently polling in third with around 10-12 percent.
Despite a monumental fall from grace in recent week, even Newt Gingrich is still polling in higher numbers than Santorum.
Senator Santorum is about to discover the wrath of the Super PAC! said Patrick Griffin, a senior fellow at the Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College. Intense scrutiny, tough ads and an uphill battle to raise money, continue to deploy staff and search for a significant number of social conservative voters that are simply not as plentiful in New Hampshire as in Iowa
Following last nights third place finish in Iowa, where Ron Paul picked up an equal number of delegates to both Romney and Santorum, the Paul campaign made it clear that they are treating the result as a victory.
There were three tickets out of Iowa, and Ron Paul earned one of them. a statement from Ron Paul 2012 National Campaign Chairman Jesse Benton read.
One of the three tickets, the one belonging to Rick Santorum, is a dead-end due to Santorums weak fundraising and lack of national campaign organization. the statement continues.
This is now a two way race between establishment candidate Mitt Romney and the candidate for real change, Ron Paul.
Paul himself responded following Santorums outburst yesterday during which he described the Congressman as disgusting, merely for highlighting Santorums questionable record on major issues.
Seemingly unaware that Santorum had made the comment, the Congressman asked for clarification during an interview with Fox News host Neil Cavuto.
He called me that? Paul asked.
Yes, he did. Cavuto replied.
I would say that is not very nice, not a nice thing to do. Paul modestly answered, before turning back to address Santorums record.
I think he wants to deflect away from some of the charges made against him, about having been a supporter of Arlen Specter, and he was a pretty liberal senator. He supported prescription drug programs and No Child Left Behind and voted for all the foreign aid. Paul stated.
So I would say that he ought to be talking about that, rather than calling me names. he added.
to call me and label me a certain way because I believe in the Constitution and very principled no one tells me I am not a principled voter and that Im not a strict constitutionalist. So every time they say something very negative about me, I say, they dont have a whole lot of respect for somebody that sticks to the Constitution. Paul asserted.
Watch the interview below:
Steve Watson is the London based writer and editor for Alex Jones Infowars.net, and Prisonplanet.com. He has a Masters Degree in International Relations from the School of Politics at The University of Nottingham in England.
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