Romney downplays expectations, Gingrich surges as South Carolina votes By the CNN Political Unit
updated 11:15 AM EST, Sat January 21, 2012
25 delegates at stake in South Carolina
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
* NEW: New poll shows Gingrich with big lead over Romney in S.C. * Gingrich has surged in polls in week leading up to primary * Gingrich strategist predicts victory * Romney comes off a tough week with Santorum's official Iowa win
It's a big day for politics in South Carolina Saturday on CNN. Tune in at 4 p.m. ET to see the candidates debate the issues from Thursday night's edge-of-your-seat debate then, at 6 ET, CNN's special live coverage of the South Carolina primary begins. See the results as they come in on CNN, CNN.com/Live and the CNN mobile apps.
Columbia, South Carolina (CNN) -- A new poll released as South Carolinians are voting in their Republican primary shows Newt Gingrich's week-long surge taking him past Mitt Romney into a substantial lead among likely voters in the Palmetto State.
The American Research Group poll, conducted Thursday and Friday, shows Gingrich leading Romney by a 40%-26% margin. ARG's last poll, released Thursday, showed a virtual tie with Gingrich at 33% and Romney at 32%.
Two weeks ago, Romney's campaign was looking at two wins under its belt, a big lead in South Carolina, a bigger lead in Florida and the possibility of a clear path to the Republican presidential nomination.
But a day before the vote, Romney's camp was downplaying expectations and Gingrich's predicting victory.
"It's tight, it's real tight," said one Romney adviser who did not want to be quoted discussing internal poll numbers.
A top Gingrich strategist in South Carolina was predicting victory.
Richard Quinn, a longtime South Carolina GOP strategist who worked for Jon Huntsman but signed on to advise Gingrich this week, told CNN Friday that the former House speaker will walk away with "between a 4- and 6-point plurality win" in the contest.
South Carolina is the third contest on the primary calendar and the first in the South. The winner of the primary has gone on to win the Republican nomination in every election since 1980.
As late as Tuesday, Romney had a double-digit lead in most polls of likely voters in the state's primary, but Gingrich turned in two strong debate performances in the state this week while Romney was put on his heels by his rivals.
Then what had been declared an eight-vote Romney victory in Iowa's January 3 caucuses was reversed into a 34-vote win for Rick Santorum when the state party certified its results on Thursday.
Later that day, Texas Gov. Rick Perry suspended his campaign and threw his support to Gingrich.
"It has been a hard week," said state treasurer Curtis Loftis, a leading Romney surrogate said Friday. "Nobody is going to deny that."
Santorum trails Romney and Gingrich and the Iowa reversal and an earlier endorsement by a group of leading conservative Christian leaders hasn't translated into support in a state where a large part of Republican voters call themselves evangelical or conservative Christians.
But the former Pennsylvania senator said on Friday that he had felt a "palpable change" over the last 48 hours.
Santorum has spent the week trying to bring down Gingrich in what most see as a race between the moderate Romney against conservatives Gingrich or Santorum.
On Friday, he made parallels to Goldilocks and the Three Bears, calling Gingrich's history too hot, questioning whether he had the "discipline to go out and be steady," and Romney as "just a little cool, just a little timid."
Left out of Santorum's fable is Texas Rep. Ron Paul, although most polls show him running just a few points behind Santorum.
Although most GOP strategists see Paul's strict interpretation of the Constitution and his views on defense and spending as out of step with the mainstream, he appeals to libertarian-leaning Republicans and has a large following among younger voters.
On Friday, Paul addressed that appeal, saying, "A lot of people do identify me with another generation, the younger generation who's so enthusiastic about the things that we've been talking about in going back to the Constitution," Paul said. "So this to me is very encouraging because the growth of the freedom movement is getting to be exponential. It was very, very slow for a long time."
The candidates are making their final pitches to voters on Saturday with Gingrich, Romney and Santorum making several stops in the more conservative upstate before they converge in the state capital of Columbia as returns start coming in.
An anticipated convergence between Romney and Gingrich didn't come about when Romney showed up early at a Greenville restaurant where his and Gingrich's campaigns had scheduled appearances at the same time. Gingrich showed up after Romney had left and asked, "Where's Mitt?" and said that he was hoping for an impromptu debate.
The Romney campaign scheduled its stop late, trying to pick up conservative voters in the waning hours, but aides insist the competing appearances were purely coincidence.
The campaign trail leads to Florida next, which votes on January 31. Romney has held a large lead in polls of likely primary voters but recent polls show the race tightening a bit there, too.
CNN's Jim Acosta, Adam Aigner-Treworgy, Dana Bash, Peter Hamby, John Helton, Shawna Shepherd and Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report.
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Poster Comment:
The American Research Group poll, conducted Thursday and Friday, shows Gingrich leading Romney by a 40%-26% margin. ARG's last poll, released Thursday, showed a virtual tie with Gingrich at 33% and Romney at 32%.