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Ron Paul
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Title: It’s Still a Two-Man Race Between Paul and Romney (Newt Can't Win)
Source: Freedtardville
URL Source: http://bedford-nh.patch.com/blog_po ... n-race-between-paul-and-romney
Published: Jan 23, 2012
Author: Freeptards
Post Date: 2012-01-23 17:26:25 by Flintlock
Keywords: None
Views: 163
Comments: 11

It’s Still a Two-Man Race Between Paul and Romney BedfordPatch ^ | January 23, 2012 at 9:03 am | Bill Walker

Posted on Monday, January 23, 2012 11:31:19 AM by mvpel

Newt Gingrich can’t be President. Not because of his $1.6 million Freddie Mac scandal, or his fake charity scandal, or his $300,000 ethics fine while Speaker, the arms dealer scandal, or any of his other personal and financial scandals. Newt Gingrich (or Rick Santorum) can’t be President because to be nominated, you need delegates. ...

Newt has lots of media coverage, but in the physical world where campaigns actually occur he can’t get 1141 delegates. ...

No candidates besides Paul and Romney filed in all the states:

VA - no Gingrich or Santorum - 49 delegates

MO - no Gingrich - 52 delegates, non-binding primary

D.C. - no Santorum - 19 delegates

So that's 101 lost for Gingrich, and 68 lost for Santorum.

Then, even when your campaign stops its Aegean cruise long enough to file, you still have to get people to sign up as delegates. Santorum and Gingrich only have partial slates of delegates in IL, OH, and TN, which together represent 193 delegates. They are missing different numbers of delegates, but these losses push Gingrich down to levels where he would have to have landslides in all the remaining states.

...

Poster Comment:

Link to original article above. Link to Freeptardville below

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2836600/posts

This is going to be a brokered convention, Newt will have to cut a deal with somebody.

Post Comment   Private Reply   Ignore Thread  

#1. To: Flintlock (#0)

4um: YouTube: 564 delegates to be split between Paul and Romney

TwentyTwelve  posted on  2012-01-23   18:00:51 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  

4um: YouTube: 564 delegates to be split between Paul and Romney

Thanks

You know, I'm starting to worry about Dr. Paul. If they'd take out a whole airliner just to get Congressman Larry McDonald (KAL 007); if it looks like he's going to win, they'd take out a city to get Ron Paul.

Flintlock  posted on  2012-01-23   18:57:20 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  

4um: YouTube: 564 delegates to be split between Paul and Romney

Thanks

You know, I'm starting to worry about Dr. Paul. If they'd take out a whole airliner just to get Congressman Larry McDonald (KAL 007); if it looks like he's going to win, they'd take out a city to get Ron Paul.

...or a whole country.

TwentyTwelve  posted on  2012-01-23   18:58:37 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  

Florida NBC Republican Presidential Primary Debate Tonight - 9pm ET

Submitted by The Daily Paul on Mon, 01/23/2012 - 17:11

The first Florida Republican Presidential Primary debate takes place tonight at 9:00pm ET in Tampa at the University of South Florida. The debate will be shown on NBC and streamed live at MSNBC.com.

Next debate Thursday night; Vote on Tuesday, Jan 31

TwentyTwelve  posted on  2012-01-23   19:03:13 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  

Florida NBC Republican Presidential Primary Debate Tonight - 9pm ET

I'll be watching.

Flintlock  posted on  2012-01-23   19:09:19 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  

Florida NBC Republican Presidential Primary Debate Tonight - 9pm ET

I'll be watching.

Will they start off discussing the Rand Paul incident?

TwentyTwelve  posted on  2012-01-23   19:15:40 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  

Will they start off discussing the Rand Paul incident?

I hope so, you can't buy that kind of publicity. That squirrely JBT of a TSA agent that detained Rand did us a

Flintlock  posted on  2012-01-23   19:21:17 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  

From freeptardia:

It is indeed a math problem, so let’s look at the math:

If Gingrich wins the following “Winner Takes All” States:

Texas - 155 delegates
North Caroline - 55 delegates
Florida - 50 delegates
Indiana - 46 delegates
Kentucky - 45 delegates
Wisconsin - 42 delegates
Arkansas - 36 delegates
Nebraska - 35 delegates
West Virginia - 31 delegates
Arizona - 29 delegates
Oregon - 28 delegates
South Dakota - 28 delegates
Montana - 26 delegates
New Mexico - 23 delegate

He will have won 629 delegates. With the 26 he already has, he would be sitting at 655/1144.

If Romney were to win the big prizes in the “Winner Take All” of California, New York, and Pennsylvania, that would mean that it would come down to the Proportional States. What percent of delegates from the eligible Proportional States (Missouri and Virginia are out) would Gingrich need?

Let’s go with 33% in the following Proportional States:

Georgia - 25 delegates
Illinois - 23 delegates
Ohio - 22 delegates
Tennessee - 19 delegates
Alabama - 16 delegates
Louisiana - 15 delegates
Oklahoma - 14 delegates
Washington - 14 delegates
Kansas - 13 delegates
Minnesota - 13 delegates
Mississippi - 13 delegates
Massachusetts - 13 delegates
Colorado - 12 delegates
Idaho - 10 delegates
Michigan - 10 delegates
Wyoming - 9 delegates
North Dakota - 9 delegates
Alaska - 9 delegates
Nevada - 9 delegates
Maine - 8 delegates
Hawaii - 6 delegates
Connecticut - 6 delegates
Vermont - 5 delegates

That would give Gingrich an additional 293 delegates, boosting his total to 948. At a mere 33% take, he ends up 196 delegates short of an outright win.

Gingrich clearly has a more than even chance of winning the nomination if he wins Florida. That’s what the math says.

53 posted on Monday, January 23, 2012 12:28:14 PM by Anitius Severinus Boethius

Flintlock  posted on  2012-01-23   19:58:50 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  

Newt's Billionaire Benefactor to Drop Another $5M - Influence Alley

TwentyTwelve  posted on  2012-01-23   20:33:59 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  

Don't be too quick to count Newt out. He's a cunning little wretch.

Here are the facts: So far Ron Paul has 4 (four) delegates. That's only 1440 fewer than he needs to get the nomination. His chances of getting any more from the Florida primary, which is winner-take-all, are nonexistent. And on Inauguration Day 2013, whether or not he gets any votes, he'll be almost as old as Reagan was at the end of his second term.

Shoonra  posted on  2012-01-25   0:41:03 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  

Click Here

Flintlock  posted on  2012-01-25   14:36:18 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  

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