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Science/Tech
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Title: How Not To Argue That We’re Running Out Of Oil
Source: Council on Foreign Relations
URL Source: http://blogs.cfr.org/levi/2012/01/2 ... -that-were-running-out-of-oil/
Published: Jan 28, 2012
Author: Michael Levi
Post Date: 2012-01-28 12:06:03 by lead.and.lag
Keywords: None
Views: 3464
Comments: 257

you can read this article here at the CFR site.

the author, Michael Levi, is the David M. Rubenstein Senior Fellow for Energy and the Environment at the CFR, and his artticle is a mixture of disinformation, bad metaphors, and haywire logic.

his argument, although it's kinda hard to pin down, seems to be: party on, dudes, and dont worry about oil.

my comments, which are languishing, and most likey will die, in "awaiting moderation" limbo, go like this...

"oh, man…

does this mean that the PNAC/AEI/exxon people didnt have to do 9/11 in response to peak oil?

3000 american lives, countless lives elsewhere… wasted, because nobody saw shale oil coming.

what a tragedy."

and...

"here’s a map PNAC’s efforts in response to their misperceptions of peak oil.

http://img402.imageshack.us/img402/1215/pnacprogress6272011.jpg

this article is being discussed at theoildrum, despite attempts to derail it to a discussion of newt's moonbase scheme.

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Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 120.

#77. To: lead.and.lag, PSUSA2, Original_Intent, wudidiz, All (#0)

Methane and other hydrocarbons occur naturally within the earth and other planets.

You can't tell me dinosaurs used to roam around on Jupiter.

The Origin of Methane (and Oil) in the Crust of the Earth - USGS Professional Paper 1570, The Future of Energy Gases, 1993

FormerLurker  posted on  2012-01-29   20:44:24 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  

You may be right. I'm not a geologist, or a chemist, and unlike some others, I do not play one on 4um.

So, tell me, chemist/geologist/astronomer. Tell me if other planets methane and other hydrocarbons = oil. I guess you know, don't you? You claim to. So explain it to me.

PSUSA2  posted on  2012-01-29   21:43:33 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  

Tell me if other planets methane and other hydrocarbons = oil

Oil is a hydrocarbon. Methane is a precursor to oil.

FormerLurker  posted on  2012-01-30   11:14:56 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  

Oil is a hydrocarbon. Methane is a precursor to oil.

Wow. With logic like that, you can't possibly go wrong.

Methane is a precursor to oil? Really? If you want to play chemist, you might want to do some basic research first. THen. maybe you can fake it more convincingly. THen you might be able to convince others, if they are gullible.

PSUSA2  posted on  2012-01-30   12:04:37 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  

Methane is a precursor to oil? Really? If you want to play chemist, you might want to do some basic research first. THen. maybe you can fake it more convincingly. THen you might be able to convince others, if they are gullible.

Methane is a hydrocarbon chain with just one carbon atom (CH₄). Ethane has two C atoms (C₂H₆), propane has 3 (C₃H₈) and butane has 4 (C₄H₁₀).

Those are all gases which derive from simple methane.

Hydrocarbon chains with 5 to 18 carbon atoms are liquid, and form substances such as naphthas (5 to 7 carbon atoms), gasoline which is blended from hydrocarbons with 7 to 11 carbon atoms, kerosene (12 to 15 carbon atoms), then lubricating oils.

Hydrocarbon chains containing over 20 carbon atoms form paraffin wax, tar, and asphalt.

Comets are made of hydrocarbons, including tar. Dinosaurs did not hatch comets, nor did they pee oil deep into the earth for that matter.

FormerLurker  posted on  2012-01-30   12:27:43 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  

Comets are made of hydrocarbons, including tar. Dinosaurs did not hatch comets, nor did they pee oil deep into the earth for that matter.

But comets have plate tectonics?

Did "god" put the hydrocarbons there?

H and C are the 2 most common elements in the universe. But that doesn't mean oil just happens.

I'll believe it when the abiotic "theory" is proven in the labs and is no longer this silly "well, if X happens with Y and Z, along with _____________ and ______________".

PSUSA2  posted on  2012-01-30   12:36:23 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  

But comets have plate tectonics?

WTF has plate tectonics have to do with hydrocarbons?

Did "god" put the hydrocarbons there?

Did God create space and time? Did God create H₂O? Chemical building blocks permeate Creation. And they build upon themselves to form complex molecules, and eventually organisms.

Let me ask you this. How do YOU think hydrocarbons are formed? Were the dinosaurs actually super smart and they built huge laboratories that turned everything including themselves into crude oil just waiting for Rockefellar and his boys to pump it out of the ground?

FormerLurker  posted on  2012-01-30   12:42:50 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  

WTF has plate tectonics have to do with hydrocarbons?

Because someone posted an article that uses plate tectonics to explain his ideas

freedom4um.com/cgi-bin/re....cgi?ArtNum=142906&Disp=0 and freedom4um.com/cgi-bin/re...ArtNum=142868&Disp=48#C48

Let me ask you this. How do YOU think hydrocarbons are formed?

I will do the unthinkable on 4um and say I DON'T KNOW. And I refuse to act like I do by posting total crap and saying "I was right! See? I told you so!"

I am not a chemist. I am not a geologist. I am not an astronomer.

PSUSA2  posted on  2012-01-30   12:56:18 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  

I am not a chemist. I am not a geologist. I am not an astronomer.

Then perhaps you should stop swallowing the Kool-Aid and do a bit of research. And bring along an open mind and some common sense.

FormerLurker  posted on  2012-01-30   13:00:11 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  

Then perhaps you should stop swallowing the Kool-Aid and do a bit of research. And bring along an open mind and some common sense.

I"m not drinking your koolaid either. THat's common sense.

Again, they need to prove it in the lab. And it must be able to be duplicated.

PSUSA2  posted on  2012-01-30   13:03:10 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  

CONVERSION OF METHANE TO GASOLINE-RANGE HYDROCARBONS

FormerLurker  posted on  2012-01-30   13:10:25 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  

CONVERSION OF METHANE TO GASOLINE-RANGE HYDROCARBONS

I see some possible problems here.

First of all, I can only get the general idea. I bet you can't do much better. And general ideas are not good ideas. They can be wrong and I/we would not know it.

2nd, page 1 paragraph 1, is says gasoline boiling temps, not gasoline.

3rd and most importantly, are these provable natural processes or are they strictly lab processes?

I only read the first page. If I don't understand it, there's not much point in reading it all.

About the only way to get to the truth is to ask a scientist (one without an agenda one way or the other). And I don't know any chemists or geologists or astronomers.

PSUSA2  posted on  2012-01-30   13:45:44 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  

What is it about the fact that various types of hydrocarbons are in abundance on other worlds that doesn't register with you?

Are you saying that there had to have been dinosaurs there?

FormerLurker  posted on  2012-01-30   13:56:31 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  

What is it about the fact that various types of hydrocarbons are in abundance on other worlds that doesn't register with you?

It registers just fine.

But hydrocarbons do not equal oil.

PSUSA2  posted on  2012-01-30   14:07:52 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  

But hydrocarbons do not equal oil.

Oil is nothing more than a soup of various types of hydrocarbons. Oil IS hydrocarbons.

FormerLurker  posted on  2012-01-30   14:20:37 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  

        There are no replies to Comment # 120.

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