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Title: How Not To Argue That We’re Running Out Of Oil
Source:
Council on Foreign Relations
URL Source: http://blogs.cfr.org/levi/2012/01/2 ... -that-were-running-out-of-oil/
Published: Jan 28, 2012
Author: Michael Levi
Post Date: 2012-01-28 12:06:03 by lead.and.lag
Keywords: None
Views: 4009
Comments: 257
you can read this article here at the CFR site. the author, Michael Levi, is the David M. Rubenstein Senior Fellow for Energy and the Environment at the CFR, and his artticle is a mixture of disinformation, bad metaphors, and haywire logic. his argument, although it's kinda hard to pin down, seems to be: party on, dudes, and dont worry about oil. my comments, which are languishing, and most likey will die, in "awaiting moderation" limbo, go like this... does this mean that the PNAC/AEI/exxon people didnt have to do 9/11 in response to peak oil? 3000 american lives, countless lives elsewhere… wasted, because nobody saw shale oil coming. what a tragedy." and... http://img402.imageshack.us/img402/1215/pnacprogress6272011.jpg this article is being discussed at theoildrum, despite attempts to derail it to a discussion of newt's moonbase scheme. "oh, man…
"here’s a map PNAC’s efforts in response to their misperceptions of peak oil.
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#124. To: Original_Intent (#122)
I just released a huge cloud of methane, in your general direction. Sup, psycho? -------------------------------------------------------- Did you miss this part? Our results support the suggestion that hydrocarbons heavier than methane can be produced by abiogenic processes in the upper mantle. From UNIVERSITY OF BRISTOL SCHOOL OF CHEMISTRY Yep, and they'd have to explain how dinosaur poop was ejected so forcefully they created comets which turned into orbiting tarballs... Our results support the suggestion that hydrocarbons heavier than methane can be produced by abiogenic processes in the upper mantle. Well, uh, gee, uh, no. He just ignored it as one of them that "Inconvenient Truths". Algore would appreciate the tactic in a global sense. Twenty-Five Ways To Suppress Truth: The Rules of Disinformation 9. Play Dumb. No matter what evidence or logical argument is offered, avoid discussing issues except with denials they have any credibility, make any sense, provide any proof, contain or make a point, have logic, or support a conclusion. Mix well for maximum effect. Yep, and they'd have to explain how dinosaur poop was ejected so forcefully they created comets which turned into orbiting tarballs... Them thar deenosors is amazin' critters. They're everywhere - and they have spaceships too. Our results support the suggestion that hydrocarbons heavier than methane can be produced by abiogenic processes in the upper mantle. I didn't miss it. It doesn't say crude oil. And again it is a possible explanation of how planets and comets have methane. And in planets specifically it might explain how they can have hydrocarbons heavier than methane, due to the heat/pressures involved in planets. Abiotic oil needs to be proven. If it's proven, the beer is on me. But don't work up a thirst just yet. And perhaps we can set up some wildcat rigs and be gazillionaires, with lots of hot women and endless cold beer and grilled steaks. -------------------------------------------------------- Note the common shill tactic above - limited hang out. Confronted with information and verifiable documented evidence that his position is false he will not admit it as that is contrary to the talking points and the PsyOp Spin. Never mind that to a chemist Hydrocarbons and Crude Oil are interchangeable and the chemist will prefer "hydrocarbon" as being technically and scientifically more accurate. Sure they are. Have you hugged a virologist today? You should. They have probably saved your worthless hide. -------------------------------------------------------- It doesn't say crude oil. It says they produced hydrocarbons that are heavier than methane, and that's a step in the direction of liquid hydrocarbons. They didn't subject the methane to hundreds of years worth of pressure and heat. Perhaps if and when that is done, it'll prove one way or another what happens under those conditions. And again it is a possible explanation of how planets and comets have methane. No, it explains how heavier hydrocarbons are formed. Methane is in abundance throughout Creation. Have you hugged your sphincter today? I don't buy that. If they can make industrial diamonds by using explosives, they can figure out how to make crude oil out of methane by duplicating natural processes. Methane is in abundance throughout Creation. It might answer how it got there. Or it might be one explanation among others. -------------------------------------------------------- Actually, crude oil is a blend of hydrocarbons with molecules having from 5 to over 20 carbon atoms. But, it is almost always, if not always found in combination with the lighter hydrocarbons such as methane, ethane, propane, and butane. That indicates to me that an ongoing process is going on which causes the lighter chains to combine into the heavier ones. Who says that it HASN'T already been done? I'm sure that any such inventor would either be very rich (paid off for his idea), or very dead. That indicates to me that an ongoing process is going on which causes the lighter chains to combine into the heavier ones. For any system to approach greater complexity requires an energy input. With the earth we can see that the temperature and pressure deeper down provides a source. I would suspect that the outer moons where hydrocarbons have been detected that we would see similar processes. After all what a lot of people don't get is that many of those outer moons are significantly larger than our own. Ganymede is about the size of Mars which is accorded planetary status. The real problem is thought processes. Too many people react and accept things on authority rather than looking at the data and deciding for themselves. Now we get into the conspiracy angle. Occams razor still applies. Then there is another law saying that the larger the conspiracy is, the more likely it is to break down. I don't know what the laws name is, so I'll just call it PSUSA's Law. You can't prove any such conspiracy any more than you can prove abiotic oil. All this conspiracy is, is an idea, nothing more. Perhaps it has been done, in the open, and we don't know about it yet. Or perhaps it's been tried many times, and failed. Who knows? -------------------------------------------------------- They've got plenty of that over there. ROTFLOL! "When bad men combine, the good must associate; else they will fall, one by one." Edmund Burke
Yep, and the simplest explanation is that heavier hydrocarbons are formed under intense heat and pressure from methane. In fact, the biological theory tells basically the same story, except that they toss in dinosaurs and ancient marine life to embelish their story a bit. What it comes down to is that organic matter decomposes into methane. Methane is then converted to heavier hydrocarbons. Thing is, methane doesn't HAVE to come from organic matter, it comes from within the bowels of the earth itself, as well as from within the bowels of other planets and moons where there were no dinosaurs nor ancient marine life. It's been well ingrained into the minds of people since the turn of the last century that oil comes from ancient organic matter, hence the term "fossil fuel". However, that was before they found hydrocarbon lakes and clouds on places like Titan, or that comets were basically solar orbiting tar balls. And it behooves the powers that be to keep people in the dark, since their hundred billion dollar per year profit might evaporate like liquid methane at normal room temperature. As well is the element of creating the picture of scarcity in order to justify controlling energy supplies which would otherwise make people more independent of central authority and thus people control. The real problem that they've run into trying to sell "Peak Oil" is all of the recent discoveries of vast amounts of oil and gas. It makes it hard to "Cry Wolf!" He who controls the world's energy, controls the world.
Exactly, and that, not mere money, is the real reason that the Rothschilds and their ilk want to control the energy supply. If energy were to become cheap and abundant then their control link is broken and then all the "little people" could lead happy, productive, and prosperous lives free from their psychotic control. "...in the big lie there is always a certain force of credibility; because the broad masses of a nation are always more easily corrupted in the deeper strata of their emotional nature than consciously or voluntarily; and thus in the primitive simplicity of their minds they more readily fall victims to the big lie than the small lie, since they themselves often tell small lies in little matters but would be ashamed to resort to large-scale falsehoods. It would never come into their heads to fabricate colossal untruths, and they would not believe that others could have the impudence to distort the truth so infamously. Even though the facts which prove this to be so may be brought clearly to their minds, they will still doubt and waver and will continue to think that there may be some other explanation. For the grossly impudent lie always leaves traces behind it, even after it has been nailed down, a fact which is known to all expert liars in this world and to all who conspire together in the art of lying." —Adolf Hitler , Mein Kampf, vol. I, ch. X Those pesky dinosaurs are everywhere! They're as bad as cockroaches or internet shills. Thanks again....lmao on that one. It is hard to free fools from the chains they revere. Voltaire An ideal form of government is democracy tempered with assassination. Voltaire
You are most welcome. There is nothing quite so pleasing as the aroma of roast shill. ;-)
Cheers! It is hard to free fools from the chains they revere. Voltaire An ideal form of government is democracy tempered with assassination. Voltaire
I have never met a oil geologist that thought oil came from dinos. It made a cute oil company logo, tho. The martian dinosaur :) It is hard to free fools from the chains they revere. Voltaire An ideal form of government is democracy tempered with assassination. Voltaire
Well actually what they say is, "plant and animal matter", or "ancient marine life". Same argument holds though, did ancient marine, vegetable, or animal life form the hydrocarbon lakes on Titan, or the comets which orbit the sun?
I am totally unable to answer this. Lod should be able to. Unless there is some form of bizarre life form which can exist at roughly -290 degrees Fahrenheit, there is no way there were ancient animals and vegetation on Titan. As far as comets, we are left with the dinosaur ejected poop ball which travelled so violently it was able to reach escape velocity and break earth orbit, hurling itself into a solar orbit out past Pluto. It's probably so much worse than we suspect that maybe we should hope a supernatural clan of benevolent aliens could at least rescue the women and children.
NASA - Titan's Surface Organics Surpass Oil Reserves on Earth You have to admit. He WAS a friggin' genius.
I like this part: "...It would never come into their heads to fabricate colossal untruths, and they would not believe that others could have the impudence to distort the truth so infamously. Even though the facts which prove this to be so may be brought clearly to their minds, they will still doubt and waver and will continue to think that there may be some other explanation...." I just thought of something. What if part of the process of creating methane and converting it to heavier hydrocarbons, is that underneath the earth's crust, there are microorganisms of some type which release methane which subsequently form ethane, butane, and propane, and others who eat those lighter hydrocarbons and excrete (or decay into) heavier hydrocarbons? What if oil is just excrement from gazillions of living little critters underground? They would thrive on heat, rather than sunlight, and basically poop oil. Maybe that's what's going on in places like Titan, deep underground. I was about ready to hit post, then decided to look up info on microorganisms in the earth's mantle. Guess what I found... From Methane-eating bacteria alive and well in the deepest layer of Earth’s crust Here's a link to the story mentioned above about the exploration into the gabbroic layer (which sits right above the mantle), this one written by New Scientist magazine...
Please tell me you are not that stupid. Personally I don't think you are. But now I am not so sure anymore. What does the article say? Did it say anything about the bacteria "pooping" oil? No, it didnt. You're grasping at straws, looking for anything that can back you up on this, whether it's other posters, or it's articles that you see things in that aren't even there. -------------------------------------------------------- Well actually what they say is, "plant and animal matter", or "ancient marine life". The bulk of petroleum likely does not come from animal matter, but there is a lot of animal matter mixed in with it. Biostratigraphers use micropaleontology to determine the age of petroleum deposits. Both animal and plant fossils are used to date petroleum bearing deposits. That kind of dating is correlated with radiometric analysis to find the age of beds at different depths. I know a guy that does this stuff. Oil companies send him rocks and liquids and he studies the samples with a binocular microscope. There's a spectacular array of critters in those samples.
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Somebody ought to tell the truth about the Bible. The preachers dare not, because they would be driven from their pulpits. Professors in colleges dare not, because they would lose their salaries. Politicians dare not. They would be defeated. Editors dare not. They would lose subscribers. Merchants dare not, because they might lose customers. Men of fashion dare not, fearing that they would lose caste. Even clerks dare not, because they might be discharged. And so I thought I would do it myself... Robert Ingersoll
#125. To: PSUSA2 (#121)
I'm not trying to be stubborn just for the sake of being stubborn. But there is nothing in that article that supports abiotic oil. In fact, it explicitly supports the opposite, and calls abiotic oil a "open question", as well as uses words "proposed", and "could be".
"The real deal is this: the ‘royalty’ controlling the court, the ones with the power, the ones with the ability to make a difference, with the ability to change our course, the ones who will live in infamy if we pass the tipping points, are the captains of industry, CEOs in fossil fuel companies such as EXXON/Mobil, automobile manufacturers, utilities, all of the leaders who have placed short-term profit above the fate of the planet and the well-being of our children." - James Hansen
#126. To: PSUSA2 (#123)
I'd have to look it up, but I don't think it's reversible. Or maybe it wasn't reversible when I was taught this. Things have changed since then.
In 1980, Glenn Seaborg was successful in transmuting minute quantities lead to gold, possibly via bismuth. In 1972, Russian scientists found that the lead shielding of an experimental nuclear reactor near Lake Baikal in Siberia had unexpectedly turned to gold!
"The real deal is this: the ‘royalty’ controlling the court, the ones with the power, the ones with the ability to make a difference, with the ability to change our course, the ones who will live in infamy if we pass the tipping points, are the captains of industry, CEOs in fossil fuel companies such as EXXON/Mobil, automobile manufacturers, utilities, all of the leaders who have placed short-term profit above the fate of the planet and the well-being of our children." - James Hansen
#127. To: PSUSA2 (#124)
#128. To: Original_Intent, PSUSA2 (#122)
If the Peak Oil disinfo artists admitted that hydrocarbons exist in abundance in the outer Solar System then they have to explain how the Great Dinosaur Migration to Titan took place.
"The real deal is this: the ‘royalty’ controlling the court, the ones with the power, the ones with the ability to make a difference, with the ability to change our course, the ones who will live in infamy if we pass the tipping points, are the captains of industry, CEOs in fossil fuel companies such as EXXON/Mobil, automobile manufacturers, utilities, all of the leaders who have placed short-term profit above the fate of the planet and the well-being of our children." - James Hansen
#129. To: FormerLurker (#125)
Did you miss this part?
#130. To: FormerLurker, BSUSATOO, PUSUSATOO, PSUSA2, wudidiz, lead.and.lag, all (#128)
If the Peak Oil disinfo artists admitted that hydrocarbons exist in abundance in the outer Solar System then they have to explain how the Great Dinosaur Migration to Titan took place.
#131. To: FormerLurker (#125)
Did you miss this part?
Somebody ought to tell the truth about the Bible. The preachers dare not, because they would be driven from their pulpits. Professors in colleges dare not, because they would lose their salaries. Politicians dare not. They would be defeated. Editors dare not. They would lose subscribers. Merchants dare not, because they might lose customers. Men of fashion dare not, fearing that they would lose caste. Even clerks dare not, because they might be discharged. And so I thought I would do it myself... Robert Ingersoll
#132. To: FormerLurker (#128)
#133. To: Original_Intent (#132)
Never mind that to a chemist Hydrocarbons and Crude Oil are interchangeable
Somebody ought to tell the truth about the Bible. The preachers dare not, because they would be driven from their pulpits. Professors in colleges dare not, because they would lose their salaries. Politicians dare not. They would be defeated. Editors dare not. They would lose subscribers. Merchants dare not, because they might lose customers. Men of fashion dare not, fearing that they would lose caste. Even clerks dare not, because they might be discharged. And so I thought I would do it myself... Robert Ingersoll
#134. To: PSUSA2 (#131)
"The real deal is this: the ‘royalty’ controlling the court, the ones with the power, the ones with the ability to make a difference, with the ability to change our course, the ones who will live in infamy if we pass the tipping points, are the captains of industry, CEOs in fossil fuel companies such as EXXON/Mobil, automobile manufacturers, utilities, all of the leaders who have placed short-term profit above the fate of the planet and the well-being of our children." - James Hansen
#135. To: PSUSA2 (#133)
#136. To: FormerLurker (#134)
They didn't subject the methane to hundreds of years worth of pressure and heat. Perhaps if and when that is done, it'll prove one way or another what happens under those conditions.
Somebody ought to tell the truth about the Bible. The preachers dare not, because they would be driven from their pulpits. Professors in colleges dare not, because they would lose their salaries. Politicians dare not. They would be defeated. Editors dare not. They would lose subscribers. Merchants dare not, because they might lose customers. Men of fashion dare not, fearing that they would lose caste. Even clerks dare not, because they might be discharged. And so I thought I would do it myself... Robert Ingersoll
#137. To: Original_Intent (#132)
Never mind that to a chemist Hydrocarbons and Crude Oil are interchangeable and the chemist will prefer "hydrocarbon" as being technically and scientifically more accurate.
"The real deal is this: the ‘royalty’ controlling the court, the ones with the power, the ones with the ability to make a difference, with the ability to change our course, the ones who will live in infamy if we pass the tipping points, are the captains of industry, CEOs in fossil fuel companies such as EXXON/Mobil, automobile manufacturers, utilities, all of the leaders who have placed short-term profit above the fate of the planet and the well-being of our children." - James Hansen
#138. To: PSUSA2 (#136)
I don't buy that. If they can make industrial diamonds by using explosives, they can figure out how to make crude oil out of methane by duplicating natural processes.
"The real deal is this: the ‘royalty’ controlling the court, the ones with the power, the ones with the ability to make a difference, with the ability to change our course, the ones who will live in infamy if we pass the tipping points, are the captains of industry, CEOs in fossil fuel companies such as EXXON/Mobil, automobile manufacturers, utilities, all of the leaders who have placed short-term profit above the fate of the planet and the well-being of our children." - James Hansen
#139. To: FormerLurker (#137)
But, it is almost always, if not always found in combination with the lighter hydrocarbons such as methane, ethane, propane, and butane.
#140. To: FormerLurker (#138)
Who says that it HASN'T already been done? I'm sure that any such inventor would either be very rich (paid off for his idea), or very dead.
Somebody ought to tell the truth about the Bible. The preachers dare not, because they would be driven from their pulpits. Professors in colleges dare not, because they would lose their salaries. Politicians dare not. They would be defeated. Editors dare not. They would lose subscribers. Merchants dare not, because they might lose customers. Men of fashion dare not, fearing that they would lose caste. Even clerks dare not, because they might be discharged. And so I thought I would do it myself... Robert Ingersoll
#141. To: PSUSA2 (#10)
finding sand for the kids sandboxes.
#142. To: PSUSA2, Original_Intent (#140)
Occams razor still applies
"The real deal is this: the ‘royalty’ controlling the court, the ones with the power, the ones with the ability to make a difference, with the ability to change our course, the ones who will live in infamy if we pass the tipping points, are the captains of industry, CEOs in fossil fuel companies such as EXXON/Mobil, automobile manufacturers, utilities, all of the leaders who have placed short-term profit above the fate of the planet and the well-being of our children." - James Hansen
#143. To: Original_Intent (#139)
The real problem is thought processes. Too many people react and accept things on authority rather than looking at the data and deciding for themselves.
"The real deal is this: the ‘royalty’ controlling the court, the ones with the power, the ones with the ability to make a difference, with the ability to change our course, the ones who will live in infamy if we pass the tipping points, are the captains of industry, CEOs in fossil fuel companies such as EXXON/Mobil, automobile manufacturers, utilities, all of the leaders who have placed short-term profit above the fate of the planet and the well-being of our children." - James Hansen
#144. To: FormerLurker (#143)
And it behooves the powers that be to keep people in the dark, since their hundred billion dollar per year profit might evaporate like liquid methane at normal room temperature.
#145. To: Original_Intent (#144)
"The real deal is this: the ‘royalty’ controlling the court, the ones with the power, the ones with the ability to make a difference, with the ability to change our course, the ones who will live in infamy if we pass the tipping points, are the captains of industry, CEOs in fossil fuel companies such as EXXON/Mobil, automobile manufacturers, utilities, all of the leaders who have placed short-term profit above the fate of the planet and the well-being of our children." - James Hansen
#146. To: FormerLurker (#145)
He who controls the world's energy, controls the world.
#147. To: PSUSA2, FormerLurker, Original_Intent, all (#140)
"For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth, to know the worst, and to provide for it.” ~ Patrick Henry
#148. To: Original_Intent (#122)
If the Peak Oil disinfo artists admitted that hydrocarbons exist in abundance in the outer Solar System then they have to explain how the Great Dinosaur Migration to Titan took place.
#149. To: intotheabyss (#148)
#150. To: Original_Intent (#149)
You are most welcome. There is nothing quite so pleasing as the aroma of roast shill. ;-)
#151. To: FormerLurker (#142)
except that they toss in dinosaurs
"Satan / Cheney in "08" 
#152. To: tom007 (#151)
It made a cute oil company logo, tho.
#153. To: tom007 (#151)
I have never met a oil geologist that thought oil came from dinos.
"The real deal is this: the ‘royalty’ controlling the court, the ones with the power, the ones with the ability to make a difference, with the ability to change our course, the ones who will live in infamy if we pass the tipping points, are the captains of industry, CEOs in fossil fuel companies such as EXXON/Mobil, automobile manufacturers, utilities, all of the leaders who have placed short-term profit above the fate of the planet and the well-being of our children." - James Hansen
#154. To: tom007 (#151)
"The real deal is this: the ‘royalty’ controlling the court, the ones with the power, the ones with the ability to make a difference, with the ability to change our course, the ones who will live in infamy if we pass the tipping points, are the captains of industry, CEOs in fossil fuel companies such as EXXON/Mobil, automobile manufacturers, utilities, all of the leaders who have placed short-term profit above the fate of the planet and the well-being of our children." - James Hansen
#155. To: FormerLurker, lod (#154)
Same argument holds though, did ancient marine, vegetable, or animal life form the hydrocarbon lakes on Titan, or the comets which orbit the sun?
"Satan / Cheney in "08"
#156. To: tom007, Lod (#155)
(Edited)
Lod should be able to.
"The real deal is this: the ‘royalty’ controlling the court, the ones with the power, the ones with the ability to make a difference, with the ability to change our course, the ones who will live in infamy if we pass the tipping points, are the captains of industry, CEOs in fossil fuel companies such as EXXON/Mobil, automobile manufacturers, utilities, all of the leaders who have placed short-term profit above the fate of the planet and the well-being of our children." - James Hansen
#157. To: Bill D Berger (#60)
#158. To: tom007, All (#155)
"The real deal is this: the ‘royalty’ controlling the court, the ones with the power, the ones with the ability to make a difference, with the ability to change our course, the ones who will live in infamy if we pass the tipping points, are the captains of industry, CEOs in fossil fuel companies such as EXXON/Mobil, automobile manufacturers, utilities, all of the leaders who have placed short-term profit above the fate of the planet and the well-being of our children." - James Hansen
#159. To: wudidiz (#147)
#160. To: Cornhuskerkid (#159)
You have to admit. He WAS a friggin' genius.
"For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth, to know the worst, and to provide for it.” ~ Patrick Henry
#161. To: tom007, Lod, wudidz, Original_Intent, All (#155)
The gabbroic bacteria also rely on totally different food sources. They subsist on hydrocarbons such as methane or benzene, much like the bacteria found in oil slicks or contaminated soil.
"The real deal is this: the ‘royalty’ controlling the court, the ones with the power, the ones with the ability to make a difference, with the ability to change our course, the ones who will live in infamy if we pass the tipping points, are the captains of industry, CEOs in fossil fuel companies such as EXXON/Mobil, automobile manufacturers, utilities, all of the leaders who have placed short-term profit above the fate of the planet and the well-being of our children." - James Hansen
#162. To: All (#161)
"The real deal is this: the ‘royalty’ controlling the court, the ones with the power, the ones with the ability to make a difference, with the ability to change our course, the ones who will live in infamy if we pass the tipping points, are the captains of industry, CEOs in fossil fuel companies such as EXXON/Mobil, automobile manufacturers, utilities, all of the leaders who have placed short-term profit above the fate of the planet and the well-being of our children." - James Hansen
#163. To: FormerLurker (#161)
What if oil is just excrement from gazillions of living little critters underground? They would thrive on heat, rather than sunlight, and basically poop oil.
Somebody ought to tell the truth about the Bible. The preachers dare not, because they would be driven from their pulpits. Professors in colleges dare not, because they would lose their salaries. Politicians dare not. They would be defeated. Editors dare not. They would lose subscribers. Merchants dare not, because they might lose customers. Men of fashion dare not, fearing that they would lose caste. Even clerks dare not, because they might be discharged. And so I thought I would do it myself... Robert Ingersoll
#164. To: FormerLurker (#153)
(Edited)
I have never met a oil geologist that thought oil came from dinos.
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