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Title: How Not To Argue That We’re Running Out Of Oil
Source:
Council on Foreign Relations
URL Source: http://blogs.cfr.org/levi/2012/01/2 ... -that-were-running-out-of-oil/
Published: Jan 28, 2012
Author: Michael Levi
Post Date: 2012-01-28 12:06:03 by lead.and.lag
Keywords: None
Views: 4036
Comments: 257
you can read this article here at the CFR site. the author, Michael Levi, is the David M. Rubenstein Senior Fellow for Energy and the Environment at the CFR, and his artticle is a mixture of disinformation, bad metaphors, and haywire logic. his argument, although it's kinda hard to pin down, seems to be: party on, dudes, and dont worry about oil. my comments, which are languishing, and most likey will die, in "awaiting moderation" limbo, go like this... does this mean that the PNAC/AEI/exxon people didnt have to do 9/11 in response to peak oil? 3000 american lives, countless lives elsewhere… wasted, because nobody saw shale oil coming. what a tragedy." and... http://img402.imageshack.us/img402/1215/pnacprogress6272011.jpg this article is being discussed at theoildrum, despite attempts to derail it to a discussion of newt's moonbase scheme. "oh, man…
"here’s a map PNAC’s efforts in response to their misperceptions of peak oil.
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#139. To: FormerLurker (#137)
That indicates to me that an ongoing process is going on which causes the lighter chains to combine into the heavier ones. For any system to approach greater complexity requires an energy input. With the earth we can see that the temperature and pressure deeper down provides a source. I would suspect that the outer moons where hydrocarbons have been detected that we would see similar processes. After all what a lot of people don't get is that many of those outer moons are significantly larger than our own. Ganymede is about the size of Mars which is accorded planetary status. The real problem is thought processes. Too many people react and accept things on authority rather than looking at the data and deciding for themselves. Now we get into the conspiracy angle. Occams razor still applies. Then there is another law saying that the larger the conspiracy is, the more likely it is to break down. I don't know what the laws name is, so I'll just call it PSUSA's Law. You can't prove any such conspiracy any more than you can prove abiotic oil. All this conspiracy is, is an idea, nothing more. Perhaps it has been done, in the open, and we don't know about it yet. Or perhaps it's been tried many times, and failed. Who knows? -------------------------------------------------------- They've got plenty of that over there. ROTFLOL! "When bad men combine, the good must associate; else they will fall, one by one." Edmund Burke
Yep, and the simplest explanation is that heavier hydrocarbons are formed under intense heat and pressure from methane. In fact, the biological theory tells basically the same story, except that they toss in dinosaurs and ancient marine life to embelish their story a bit. What it comes down to is that organic matter decomposes into methane. Methane is then converted to heavier hydrocarbons. Thing is, methane doesn't HAVE to come from organic matter, it comes from within the bowels of the earth itself, as well as from within the bowels of other planets and moons where there were no dinosaurs nor ancient marine life. It's been well ingrained into the minds of people since the turn of the last century that oil comes from ancient organic matter, hence the term "fossil fuel". However, that was before they found hydrocarbon lakes and clouds on places like Titan, or that comets were basically solar orbiting tar balls. And it behooves the powers that be to keep people in the dark, since their hundred billion dollar per year profit might evaporate like liquid methane at normal room temperature. As well is the element of creating the picture of scarcity in order to justify controlling energy supplies which would otherwise make people more independent of central authority and thus people control. The real problem that they've run into trying to sell "Peak Oil" is all of the recent discoveries of vast amounts of oil and gas. It makes it hard to "Cry Wolf!" He who controls the world's energy, controls the world.
Exactly, and that, not mere money, is the real reason that the Rothschilds and their ilk want to control the energy supply. If energy were to become cheap and abundant then their control link is broken and then all the "little people" could lead happy, productive, and prosperous lives free from their psychotic control. "...in the big lie there is always a certain force of credibility; because the broad masses of a nation are always more easily corrupted in the deeper strata of their emotional nature than consciously or voluntarily; and thus in the primitive simplicity of their minds they more readily fall victims to the big lie than the small lie, since they themselves often tell small lies in little matters but would be ashamed to resort to large-scale falsehoods. It would never come into their heads to fabricate colossal untruths, and they would not believe that others could have the impudence to distort the truth so infamously. Even though the facts which prove this to be so may be brought clearly to their minds, they will still doubt and waver and will continue to think that there may be some other explanation. For the grossly impudent lie always leaves traces behind it, even after it has been nailed down, a fact which is known to all expert liars in this world and to all who conspire together in the art of lying." —Adolf Hitler , Mein Kampf, vol. I, ch. X Those pesky dinosaurs are everywhere! They're as bad as cockroaches or internet shills. Thanks again....lmao on that one. It is hard to free fools from the chains they revere. Voltaire An ideal form of government is democracy tempered with assassination. Voltaire
You are most welcome. There is nothing quite so pleasing as the aroma of roast shill. ;-)
Cheers! It is hard to free fools from the chains they revere. Voltaire An ideal form of government is democracy tempered with assassination. Voltaire
I have never met a oil geologist that thought oil came from dinos. It made a cute oil company logo, tho. The martian dinosaur :) It is hard to free fools from the chains they revere. Voltaire An ideal form of government is democracy tempered with assassination. Voltaire
Well actually what they say is, "plant and animal matter", or "ancient marine life". Same argument holds though, did ancient marine, vegetable, or animal life form the hydrocarbon lakes on Titan, or the comets which orbit the sun?
I am totally unable to answer this. Lod should be able to. Unless there is some form of bizarre life form which can exist at roughly -290 degrees Fahrenheit, there is no way there were ancient animals and vegetation on Titan. As far as comets, we are left with the dinosaur ejected poop ball which travelled so violently it was able to reach escape velocity and break earth orbit, hurling itself into a solar orbit out past Pluto. It's probably so much worse than we suspect that maybe we should hope a supernatural clan of benevolent aliens could at least rescue the women and children.
NASA - Titan's Surface Organics Surpass Oil Reserves on Earth You have to admit. He WAS a friggin' genius.
I like this part: "...It would never come into their heads to fabricate colossal untruths, and they would not believe that others could have the impudence to distort the truth so infamously. Even though the facts which prove this to be so may be brought clearly to their minds, they will still doubt and waver and will continue to think that there may be some other explanation...." I just thought of something. What if part of the process of creating methane and converting it to heavier hydrocarbons, is that underneath the earth's crust, there are microorganisms of some type which release methane which subsequently form ethane, butane, and propane, and others who eat those lighter hydrocarbons and excrete (or decay into) heavier hydrocarbons? What if oil is just excrement from gazillions of living little critters underground? They would thrive on heat, rather than sunlight, and basically poop oil. Maybe that's what's going on in places like Titan, deep underground. I was about ready to hit post, then decided to look up info on microorganisms in the earth's mantle. Guess what I found... From Methane-eating bacteria alive and well in the deepest layer of Earth’s crust Here's a link to the story mentioned above about the exploration into the gabbroic layer (which sits right above the mantle), this one written by New Scientist magazine...
Please tell me you are not that stupid. Personally I don't think you are. But now I am not so sure anymore. What does the article say? Did it say anything about the bacteria "pooping" oil? No, it didnt. You're grasping at straws, looking for anything that can back you up on this, whether it's other posters, or it's articles that you see things in that aren't even there. -------------------------------------------------------- Well actually what they say is, "plant and animal matter", or "ancient marine life". The bulk of petroleum likely does not come from animal matter, but there is a lot of animal matter mixed in with it. Biostratigraphers use micropaleontology to determine the age of petroleum deposits. Both animal and plant fossils are used to date petroleum bearing deposits. That kind of dating is correlated with radiometric analysis to find the age of beds at different depths. I know a guy that does this stuff. Oil companies send him rocks and liquids and he studies the samples with a binocular microscope. There's a spectacular array of critters in those samples.
I'm sure in one of your past lives, you persecuted folks such as Galieo and Newton, since they didn't repeat what was already in books.
What does the article say? Did it say anything about the bacteria "pooping" oil? No, it didnt. It's already being done in laboratories. Who's to say what we'd discover if we could bore down to the mantle and examine the sort of natural flora which exists there. It's obvious that there already ARE natural microorganisms which DO eat hydrocarbons, it's not mentioned in the earlier article what they excrete. Even if THOSE particular bacteria do not excrete heavier hydrocarbons (or decay into them), there COULD be those which do, but live at deeper depths into the earth's mantle than what we've yet explored... And one day, pigs COULD fly. One day, we COULD have an honest president. Why do you go off of what "could" be, instead of what is? This whole fiasco was invented by the Russians during the cold war. How much time is needed to prove this? This "theory" (but if you look up the definition of theory then it isn't a theory) could just as easily come about due to political pressure as anything else. After all, they deluded themselves into believing there was no food shortages when people were dying by the truckload due to starvation. You have your supporters here. I am about the only, if not the only, detractor here, But that doesn't mean anything when it comes to who is right and who is wrong. OI is a fucktard that if believed, we'd be dead several times over already, either due to radiation or corexit, or any other number of things he tried to start a panic over, because he is a fucking idiot, no more and no less. And the rest of them aren't any better. comets which turned into orbiting tarballs... Tarballs? Come on man. THINK! Or let others do your thinking for you. If you want ass kissers and back slappers, then that is what you will get. -------------------------------------------------------- Question would be, are those recently deceased critters, live critters, or very anciently deceased critters... Do you deny the fact that there ARE artificially created microbes which DO excrete hydrocarbons such as gasoline? Do you deny the fact that comets DO have hydrocarbon signatures? Do you deny the possibility that NATURAL microbes may very well excrete complex hydrocarbons deep within the earth's mantle? What sort of scientific evidence are you aware of that proves simple heat and pressure turns biomass into crude oil? Has it ever been duplicated in a laboratory? By what process were the hydrocarbon lakes created on Titan?
Maybe that's what's going on in places like Titan, deep underground. According to Harvard biologist E.O. Wilson there are a huge number of organisms in a cubic foot of soil that we have no idea what they are or what they are doing or why they are doing it. ping You can't prove a negative. You can only prove a positive. But PROOF is lacking in abiotic oil. All you have are "what if's" and "coulds" and "maybes" and huge "conspiracies". What sort of scientific evidence are you aware of that proves simple heat and pressure turns biomass into crude oil? Has it ever been duplicated in a laboratory? I don't know. Has it? I already told you I am not a scientist, and that I refuse to play one on 4um. But there are many such pretenders here. They will tell you what's what, and if you don't believe them, then you are an "agent" telling the "big lie". They just love to pretend, and gather as many ass kissers as they possibly can, that fawn over their every phony word. Your 1st 2 questions are irrelevant. One deals with artificial creations and the other comets. Why would it surprise anyone that a comet would have combinations of the 2 most common elements in the universe? What does that prove? -------------------------------------------------------- Why would it surprise anyone that a comet would have combinations of the 2 most common elements in the universe? What does that prove? It proves that hydrocarbons can form without dead plant or animal matter. Since you seem eager to ridicule any theory which suggests how crude oil is formed, what is YOUR theory on how it is formed? Do you even HAVE a theory, or do you just think satan made it down there in hell or something?
In other words, you can NOT deny the possibility that NATURAL organisms produce hydrocarbons, especially since microbes already DO produce them in laboratories. You blasted me as if it were utterly and totally impossible and improbable. It is neither. We're talking micropaleontology here, and these are microfossils. You can be sure that they're good and dead.
And that's just within top soil. Can you imagine what sort of critters there are below the earth's crust? You can be sure that they're good and dead. Have they been dated, and how certain are they of their age?
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Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/LatestBut, it is almost always, if not always found in combination with the lighter hydrocarbons such as methane, ethane, propane, and butane.
#140. To: FormerLurker (#138)
Who says that it HASN'T already been done? I'm sure that any such inventor would either be very rich (paid off for his idea), or very dead.
Somebody ought to tell the truth about the Bible. The preachers dare not, because they would be driven from their pulpits. Professors in colleges dare not, because they would lose their salaries. Politicians dare not. They would be defeated. Editors dare not. They would lose subscribers. Merchants dare not, because they might lose customers. Men of fashion dare not, fearing that they would lose caste. Even clerks dare not, because they might be discharged. And so I thought I would do it myself... Robert Ingersoll
#141. To: PSUSA2 (#10)
finding sand for the kids sandboxes.
#142. To: PSUSA2, Original_Intent (#140)
Occams razor still applies
"The real deal is this: the ‘royalty’ controlling the court, the ones with the power, the ones with the ability to make a difference, with the ability to change our course, the ones who will live in infamy if we pass the tipping points, are the captains of industry, CEOs in fossil fuel companies such as EXXON/Mobil, automobile manufacturers, utilities, all of the leaders who have placed short-term profit above the fate of the planet and the well-being of our children." - James Hansen
#143. To: Original_Intent (#139)
The real problem is thought processes. Too many people react and accept things on authority rather than looking at the data and deciding for themselves.
"The real deal is this: the ‘royalty’ controlling the court, the ones with the power, the ones with the ability to make a difference, with the ability to change our course, the ones who will live in infamy if we pass the tipping points, are the captains of industry, CEOs in fossil fuel companies such as EXXON/Mobil, automobile manufacturers, utilities, all of the leaders who have placed short-term profit above the fate of the planet and the well-being of our children." - James Hansen
#144. To: FormerLurker (#143)
And it behooves the powers that be to keep people in the dark, since their hundred billion dollar per year profit might evaporate like liquid methane at normal room temperature.
#145. To: Original_Intent (#144)
"The real deal is this: the ‘royalty’ controlling the court, the ones with the power, the ones with the ability to make a difference, with the ability to change our course, the ones who will live in infamy if we pass the tipping points, are the captains of industry, CEOs in fossil fuel companies such as EXXON/Mobil, automobile manufacturers, utilities, all of the leaders who have placed short-term profit above the fate of the planet and the well-being of our children." - James Hansen
#146. To: FormerLurker (#145)
He who controls the world's energy, controls the world.
#147. To: PSUSA2, FormerLurker, Original_Intent, all (#140)
"For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth, to know the worst, and to provide for it.” ~ Patrick Henry
#148. To: Original_Intent (#122)
If the Peak Oil disinfo artists admitted that hydrocarbons exist in abundance in the outer Solar System then they have to explain how the Great Dinosaur Migration to Titan took place.
#149. To: intotheabyss (#148)
#150. To: Original_Intent (#149)
You are most welcome. There is nothing quite so pleasing as the aroma of roast shill. ;-)
#151. To: FormerLurker (#142)
except that they toss in dinosaurs
"Satan / Cheney in "08" 
#152. To: tom007 (#151)
It made a cute oil company logo, tho.
#153. To: tom007 (#151)
I have never met a oil geologist that thought oil came from dinos.
"The real deal is this: the ‘royalty’ controlling the court, the ones with the power, the ones with the ability to make a difference, with the ability to change our course, the ones who will live in infamy if we pass the tipping points, are the captains of industry, CEOs in fossil fuel companies such as EXXON/Mobil, automobile manufacturers, utilities, all of the leaders who have placed short-term profit above the fate of the planet and the well-being of our children." - James Hansen
#154. To: tom007 (#151)
"The real deal is this: the ‘royalty’ controlling the court, the ones with the power, the ones with the ability to make a difference, with the ability to change our course, the ones who will live in infamy if we pass the tipping points, are the captains of industry, CEOs in fossil fuel companies such as EXXON/Mobil, automobile manufacturers, utilities, all of the leaders who have placed short-term profit above the fate of the planet and the well-being of our children." - James Hansen
#155. To: FormerLurker, lod (#154)
Same argument holds though, did ancient marine, vegetable, or animal life form the hydrocarbon lakes on Titan, or the comets which orbit the sun?
"Satan / Cheney in "08"
#156. To: tom007, Lod (#155)
(Edited)
Lod should be able to.
"The real deal is this: the ‘royalty’ controlling the court, the ones with the power, the ones with the ability to make a difference, with the ability to change our course, the ones who will live in infamy if we pass the tipping points, are the captains of industry, CEOs in fossil fuel companies such as EXXON/Mobil, automobile manufacturers, utilities, all of the leaders who have placed short-term profit above the fate of the planet and the well-being of our children." - James Hansen
#157. To: Bill D Berger (#60)
#158. To: tom007, All (#155)
"The real deal is this: the ‘royalty’ controlling the court, the ones with the power, the ones with the ability to make a difference, with the ability to change our course, the ones who will live in infamy if we pass the tipping points, are the captains of industry, CEOs in fossil fuel companies such as EXXON/Mobil, automobile manufacturers, utilities, all of the leaders who have placed short-term profit above the fate of the planet and the well-being of our children." - James Hansen
#159. To: wudidiz (#147)
#160. To: Cornhuskerkid (#159)
You have to admit. He WAS a friggin' genius.
"For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth, to know the worst, and to provide for it.” ~ Patrick Henry
#161. To: tom007, Lod, wudidz, Original_Intent, All (#155)
The gabbroic bacteria also rely on totally different food sources. They subsist on hydrocarbons such as methane or benzene, much like the bacteria found in oil slicks or contaminated soil.
"The real deal is this: the ‘royalty’ controlling the court, the ones with the power, the ones with the ability to make a difference, with the ability to change our course, the ones who will live in infamy if we pass the tipping points, are the captains of industry, CEOs in fossil fuel companies such as EXXON/Mobil, automobile manufacturers, utilities, all of the leaders who have placed short-term profit above the fate of the planet and the well-being of our children." - James Hansen
#162. To: All (#161)
"The real deal is this: the ‘royalty’ controlling the court, the ones with the power, the ones with the ability to make a difference, with the ability to change our course, the ones who will live in infamy if we pass the tipping points, are the captains of industry, CEOs in fossil fuel companies such as EXXON/Mobil, automobile manufacturers, utilities, all of the leaders who have placed short-term profit above the fate of the planet and the well-being of our children." - James Hansen
#163. To: FormerLurker (#161)
What if oil is just excrement from gazillions of living little critters underground? They would thrive on heat, rather than sunlight, and basically poop oil.
Somebody ought to tell the truth about the Bible. The preachers dare not, because they would be driven from their pulpits. Professors in colleges dare not, because they would lose their salaries. Politicians dare not. They would be defeated. Editors dare not. They would lose subscribers. Merchants dare not, because they might lose customers. Men of fashion dare not, fearing that they would lose caste. Even clerks dare not, because they might be discharged. And so I thought I would do it myself... Robert Ingersoll
#164. To: FormerLurker (#153)
(Edited)
I have never met a oil geologist that thought oil came from dinos.
#165. To: PSUSA2 (#163)
"The real deal is this: the ‘royalty’ controlling the court, the ones with the power, the ones with the ability to make a difference, with the ability to change our course, the ones who will live in infamy if we pass the tipping points, are the captains of industry, CEOs in fossil fuel companies such as EXXON/Mobil, automobile manufacturers, utilities, all of the leaders who have placed short-term profit above the fate of the planet and the well-being of our children." - James Hansen
#166. To: PSUSA2, All (#163)
Please tell me you are not that stupid. Personally I don't think you are. But now I am not so sure anymore.
"The real deal is this: the ‘royalty’ controlling the court, the ones with the power, the ones with the ability to make a difference, with the ability to change our course, the ones who will live in infamy if we pass the tipping points, are the captains of industry, CEOs in fossil fuel companies such as EXXON/Mobil, automobile manufacturers, utilities, all of the leaders who have placed short-term profit above the fate of the planet and the well-being of our children." - James Hansen
#167. To: FormerLurker (#166)
there COULD be those which do, but live at deeper depths into the earth's mantle than what we've yet explored...
Somebody ought to tell the truth about the Bible. The preachers dare not, because they would be driven from their pulpits. Professors in colleges dare not, because they would lose their salaries. Politicians dare not. They would be defeated. Editors dare not. They would lose subscribers. Merchants dare not, because they might lose customers. Men of fashion dare not, fearing that they would lose caste. Even clerks dare not, because they might be discharged. And so I thought I would do it myself... Robert Ingersoll
#168. To: randge (#164)
I know a guy that does this stuff. Oil companies send him rocks and liquids and he studies the samples with a binocular microscope. There's a spectacular array of critters in those samples.
"The real deal is this: the ‘royalty’ controlling the court, the ones with the power, the ones with the ability to make a difference, with the ability to change our course, the ones who will live in infamy if we pass the tipping points, are the captains of industry, CEOs in fossil fuel companies such as EXXON/Mobil, automobile manufacturers, utilities, all of the leaders who have placed short-term profit above the fate of the planet and the well-being of our children." - James Hansen
#169. To: PSUSA2 (#167)
(Edited)
"The real deal is this: the ‘royalty’ controlling the court, the ones with the power, the ones with the ability to make a difference, with the ability to change our course, the ones who will live in infamy if we pass the tipping points, are the captains of industry, CEOs in fossil fuel companies such as EXXON/Mobil, automobile manufacturers, utilities, all of the leaders who have placed short-term profit above the fate of the planet and the well-being of our children." - James Hansen
#170. To: PSUSA2 (#167)
"The real deal is this: the ‘royalty’ controlling the court, the ones with the power, the ones with the ability to make a difference, with the ability to change our course, the ones who will live in infamy if we pass the tipping points, are the captains of industry, CEOs in fossil fuel companies such as EXXON/Mobil, automobile manufacturers, utilities, all of the leaders who have placed short-term profit above the fate of the planet and the well-being of our children." - James Hansen
#171. To: FormerLurker (#161)
What if oil is just excrement from gazillions of living little critters underground? They would thrive on heat, rather than sunlight, and basically poop oil.
"Satan / Cheney in "08"
#172. To: randge (#164)
There's a spectacular array of critters in those samples.
"Satan / Cheney in "08"
#173. To: FormerLurker (#169)
Do you deny the possibility that NATURAL microbes may very well excrete complex hydrocarbons deep within the earth's mantle?
Somebody ought to tell the truth about the Bible. The preachers dare not, because they would be driven from their pulpits. Professors in colleges dare not, because they would lose their salaries. Politicians dare not. They would be defeated. Editors dare not. They would lose subscribers. Merchants dare not, because they might lose customers. Men of fashion dare not, fearing that they would lose caste. Even clerks dare not, because they might be discharged. And so I thought I would do it myself... Robert Ingersoll
#174. To: PSUSA2 (#173)
"The real deal is this: the ‘royalty’ controlling the court, the ones with the power, the ones with the ability to make a difference, with the ability to change our course, the ones who will live in infamy if we pass the tipping points, are the captains of industry, CEOs in fossil fuel companies such as EXXON/Mobil, automobile manufacturers, utilities, all of the leaders who have placed short-term profit above the fate of the planet and the well-being of our children." - James Hansen
#175. To: PSUSA2 (#173)
"The real deal is this: the ‘royalty’ controlling the court, the ones with the power, the ones with the ability to make a difference, with the ability to change our course, the ones who will live in infamy if we pass the tipping points, are the captains of industry, CEOs in fossil fuel companies such as EXXON/Mobil, automobile manufacturers, utilities, all of the leaders who have placed short-term profit above the fate of the planet and the well-being of our children." - James Hansen
#176. To: PSUSA2 (#173)
You can't prove a negative.
"The real deal is this: the ‘royalty’ controlling the court, the ones with the power, the ones with the ability to make a difference, with the ability to change our course, the ones who will live in infamy if we pass the tipping points, are the captains of industry, CEOs in fossil fuel companies such as EXXON/Mobil, automobile manufacturers, utilities, all of the leaders who have placed short-term profit above the fate of the planet and the well-being of our children." - James Hansen
#177. To: FormerLurker (#168)
Question would be, are those recently deceased critters, live critters, or very anciently deceased critters...
#178. To: tom007 (#171)
According to Harvard biologist E.O. Wilson there are a huge number of organisms in a cubic foot of soil that we have no idea what they are or what they are doing or why they are doing it.
"The real deal is this: the ‘royalty’ controlling the court, the ones with the power, the ones with the ability to make a difference, with the ability to change our course, the ones who will live in infamy if we pass the tipping points, are the captains of industry, CEOs in fossil fuel companies such as EXXON/Mobil, automobile manufacturers, utilities, all of the leaders who have placed short-term profit above the fate of the planet and the well-being of our children." - James Hansen
#179. To: randge (#177)
We're talking micropaleontology here, and these are microfossils.
"The real deal is this: the ‘royalty’ controlling the court, the ones with the power, the ones with the ability to make a difference, with the ability to change our course, the ones who will live in infamy if we pass the tipping points, are the captains of industry, CEOs in fossil fuel companies such as EXXON/Mobil, automobile manufacturers, utilities, all of the leaders who have placed short-term profit above the fate of the planet and the well-being of our children." - James Hansen
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