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Science/Tech
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Title: How Not To Argue That We’re Running Out Of Oil
Source: Council on Foreign Relations
URL Source: http://blogs.cfr.org/levi/2012/01/2 ... -that-were-running-out-of-oil/
Published: Jan 28, 2012
Author: Michael Levi
Post Date: 2012-01-28 12:06:03 by lead.and.lag
Keywords: None
Views: 4030
Comments: 257

you can read this article here at the CFR site.

the author, Michael Levi, is the David M. Rubenstein Senior Fellow for Energy and the Environment at the CFR, and his artticle is a mixture of disinformation, bad metaphors, and haywire logic.

his argument, although it's kinda hard to pin down, seems to be: party on, dudes, and dont worry about oil.

my comments, which are languishing, and most likey will die, in "awaiting moderation" limbo, go like this...

"oh, man…

does this mean that the PNAC/AEI/exxon people didnt have to do 9/11 in response to peak oil?

3000 american lives, countless lives elsewhere… wasted, because nobody saw shale oil coming.

what a tragedy."

and...

"here’s a map PNAC’s efforts in response to their misperceptions of peak oil.

http://img402.imageshack.us/img402/1215/pnacprogress6272011.jpg

this article is being discussed at theoildrum, despite attempts to derail it to a discussion of newt's moonbase scheme.

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#1. To: lead.and.lag (#0)

..Levi,... Rubenstein

Kikes. That says it all.

PSUSA2  posted on  2012-01-28   12:32:13 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  

yup, they gotta blow smoke in case people start connecting the dots... good thing to blow a little smoke back at them, once in a while...

but i got to admit i'm suruprised that the CFR, as of right now, posted that first comment i made...

not the map, though... that's getting a little too close to home.

lead.and.lag  posted on  2012-01-28   12:36:10 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  

If it wasn't for us being over in the ME in the fist place, due to the oil, israel would be screwed. They'd have been pushed into the Med to drown like the rats they are, years ago. They have to keep us involved. Small wonder that kikes write things like this. BTW, I am only going off your interpretation of the article. I didn't read it. I didn't have to.

PSUSA2  posted on  2012-01-28   12:42:23 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  

If it wasn't for us being over in the ME in the fist place, due to the oil, israel would be screwed.

We are not in the Middle East due to the oil. The oil is purely secondary and is important only in that excessive oil production lowers the profit margins of the major oil companies, and provides the income for Arab countries to modernize.

No, the reason we are in the Middle East is to prevent Arab countries from modernizing. Pooooooooooooooor little Israel quakes in their boots at the mere though of an educated and organized Arab world. That is the reason Iraq and Libya were taken down as well as the current assaults on Syria and Iran (the Israeli destruction of Lebanese infrastructure is another). Israel sees its geopolitical and regional dominance at its height by keeping their neighbors mired in the 11th century of Muslim Fundamentalism. Iraq and Libya had a couple of things in common: They were pluralistic and granted full rights to women, and they were rapidly modernizing and spending their oil money on building up infrastructure and human capital i.e., education. Notice in post war Iraq and present day Iran the murder of intellectuals and the well educated - particularly scientists and engineers.

And the most important point tying them together is that none of them had/have a ROTHSCHILD CONTROLLED Central Bank. Even worse Ghadaffi was working to create an African monetary union which would have disempowered Rothschild control through much of Africa.

Trying to spin this as about "Oil" when oil is abundant and readily available is flat bullshit - it is misdirection and blowing smoke up people's asses. It is a classic disinformation technique - spin the available evidence toward a "plausible" but false alternative.

Twenty-Five Ways To Suppress Truth: The Rules of Disinformation

15. Fit the facts to alternate conclusions. This requires creative thinking unless the crime was planned with contingency conclusions in place.

Example: 'The cargo door failed on Flight 800 and caused a catastrophic breakup which ruptured the fuel tank and caused it to explode.'

Proper response: The best definitive example of avoiding issues by this technique is, perhaps, Arlan Specter's Magic Bullet from the Warren Report. This was eloquently defeated in court but media blindly accepted it without challenge. Thus rewarded, disinformationalists do not shrink from its application, even though today, thanks in part to the movie, JFK, most Americans do now understand it was fabricated nonsense. Thus the defense which works best may actually be to cite the Magic Bullet. 'You are avoiding the issue with disinformation tactics. Your imaginative twisting of facts rivals that of Arlan Specter's Magic Bullet in the Warren Report. We all know why the impossible magic bullet was invented. You invent a cargo door problem when there has been not one shred of evidence from the crash investigation to support it, and in fact, actual photos of the cargo door hinges and locks disprove you. Why do you refuse to address the issues by use of such disinformation tactics (rule 15 - fit facts to an alternate conclusion)?'

20. False evidence. Whenever possible, introduce new facts or clues designed and manufactured to conflict with opponent presentations -- as useful tools to neutralize sensitive issues or impede resolution. This works best when the crime was designed with contingencies for the purpose, and the facts cannot be easily separated from the fabrications.

Original_Intent  posted on  2012-01-28   13:42:32 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  

I dont give 2 shits if you agree with me or not.

Trying to spin this as about "Oil" when oil is abundant and readily available is flat bullshit - it is misdirection and blowing smoke up people's asses. It is a classic disinformation technique - spin the available evidence toward a "plausible" but false alternative.

Even though I dont care what you think, I thought that was funny. I know it wasn't intentionally funny, and that makes it even more funny.

having the kikes in 'israel' gives us a foothold in the ME, AND it also gives the kikes a lot of leverage in getting what they want.

And that is all about oil. Unless, it's all about finding sand for the kids sandboxes.

PSUSA2  posted on  2012-01-28   15:06:04 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  

And that is all about oil

How can it be all about oil when producing states are more than anxious to sell it as a source of much-needed income and also know that American exploration and drilling technology is the best in the world? Iran, for example would love to be selling oil but is constrained from doing so by crazy Jews forcing America to prevent sales through sanctions orchestrated by same crazy zios. In return for oil Iran could use refinery technologies, aircraft and other machine parts from US, an arrangement which would provide much needed jobs for Americans. The oil angle dates back to outdated thinking when everyone thought it should remain at $3/bl. Oil companies subsequently discovered they could become enormously richer with $50 and $100/bl oil with virtually no effect on automobile use.

Tatarewicz  posted on  2012-01-29   0:01:18 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  

a couple things, here...

first, america was built to accommodate the car, so even though mileage driven has been dropping, we're getting pretty close to minimum possible, given that cars are a necessity, at least the way things are set up now.

then there's the cost of getting the crude... a new semisubmersible like the globwater horizontal or whatever might cost $500 million dollars, and the cost of operating it is horrific, seeing as how it might be drilling 200 miles offshore in 10,000 feet of water.

...this compared to the old wells that, when discovered, blew out tens of thousands of barrels a day, on dry land, with the convenience and consequent low expense that implies.

then you've got the fact that we've apparently discovered all the huge fields like ghawar, cantarell, da qing, etc... compared to the big old giants, the new discoveries are dribs and drabs.

then you got a production decline rate in the old fields, maybe 4-6% a year.

then you got rising global competition for the remaining oil, as china industrializes to defend itself from israeli america, and india in its eternal paranoia about china, attempts to keep up by allying itself (temporarily?) with the neocons.

what all this adds up to is flat global production of crude oil and condensate (the liquid stuff that comes out of the ground at the wellhead) since late 2004, despite horrendous increases in price and a doubling of drills working since 2001.

so until production starts picking up, we have to assume that we've reached peak oil... at least temporarily... and judging from how hard people have been looking for oil since american production peaked in 1970, we're simply not gonna find replacements for those big old giants that have been producing so long, and it's likely that this is it, this is the peak.

and that explains exxon's alliance with the AEI, which spawned PNAC, which admitted it needed a "new pearl harbor" to rally support for its project to achieve "benevolent global hegemony" by controlling energy supplies.

and we all know by now, or should know, that the AEI is the american wing of the likud party of israel.

lead.and.lag  posted on  2012-01-29   0:37:46 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  

then there's the cost of getting the crude... a new semisubmersible like the globwater horizontal or whatever might cost $500 million dollars, and the cost of operating it is horrific, seeing as how it might be drilling 200 miles offshore in 10,000 feet of water.

...this compared to the old wells that, when discovered, blew out tens of thousands of barrels a day, on dry land, with the convenience and consequent low expense that implies.

But it's a conspiracy! The Satanic Illuminati Bohemia Grove Inc is behind it!

We're "floating" on oil. OI said so, so it must be true. (he is so smart).

So to hell with offshore drilling. Just grab a shovel and start digging. There is no shortage of oil, just as there is no shortage of stupidity.

PSUSA2  posted on  2012-01-29   7:04:50 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  

Who says there's a shortage of oil?

wudidiz  posted on  2012-01-29   7:51:27 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  

Who says there's a shortage of oil?

Would you go to the expense and trouble of offshore drilling if you didn't have to?

How about shale deposits? I'm no expert by any means, but I know this is not an efficient way to get oil.

THey are starting to grasp at straws. Before long, they will be fighting over those straws.

Or perhaps that is what they are fighting over now. I think that is more likely. What else are we doing over there? What's the mission? Tell me, because fuck if I know.

PSUSA2  posted on  2012-01-29   9:41:43 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  

Would you go to the expense and trouble of offshore drilling if you didn't have to?

How about shale deposits? I'm no expert by any means, but I know this is not an efficient way to get oil.

Good points. I don't really know the answers and could look for them but don't really care at this moment. Thing is I don't believe what "they" say, so if they say there's a shortage of oil I'm inclined to disbelieve them. Also, it doesn't make sense that oil is made of fossils. I seriously doubt there were that many dead creatures to make that much oil. The theory of abiotic oil seems far more likely.

wudidiz  posted on  2012-01-29   16:10:27 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  

The theory I am aware of is that oil is made of plant material, not animal tissue.

But I understand why you don't believe "them", and I agree. That is what happens when you cry wolf.

PSUSA2  posted on  2012-01-29   16:20:12 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  

Crude oil is a fossil fuel, meaning that it was made natural­ly from decaying plants and animals living in ancient seas millions of years ago -- most places you can find crude oil were once sea beds.

wudidiz  posted on  2012-01-29   16:27:23 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  

Coal is a fossil fuel, right?

I've seen coal that was shaped like tree trunks, but not something that was animal shaped.

But to me it is the quantities involved. There is more plant material than animal material.

PSUSA2  posted on  2012-01-29   16:29:35 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  

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