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Editorial
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Title: Lots of Precincts for Paul
Source: me
URL Source: http://na
Published: Feb 7, 2012
Author: me
Post Date: 2012-02-07 22:57:20 by TommyTheMadArtist
Keywords: Ron Paul
Views: 219
Comments: 9

Did the caucus. Ron Paul in my district took 61 percent of the vote. Two friends of mine said the same, Ron was kicking serious ass all over the state. If I hear Romney, or Scrotor wins, I will demand a recount because we have a lot of representation going to the polls, and they are going there for Ron Paul.

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fivethirtyeight.blogs.nyt...o-minnesota-and-missouri/

February 7, 2012, 8:05 pm

Live Coverage: Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri

By NATE SILVER

Republicans today are holding caucuses in Colorado and Minnesota and a primary in Missouri. Mitt Romney is hoping to hold off the other Republican candidates and continue his two-state winning streak. We’ll be bringing you data-driven analysis, historical perspective and results as they become available.

0:49 A.M. |Romney's Last, Best Hope

In addition to El Paso County, Pueblo County and Mesa County, another major county that has yet to report any results is Jefferson County ( View on Map) .

There are reports that El Paso County will go heavily to Mr. Santorum, but Mr. Romney can retain some hope in Jefferson County, to the west of Denver.

Jefferson County includes about 12 percent of the state's registered Republicans, and Mr. Romney won 67 percent of the vote there in 2008. His margin will probably be slimmer tonight.

All in all, both Mr. Santorum and Mr. Romney have a couple counties they can still look to for favorable results.

- Micah Cohen 0:45 A.M. |Watch Mesa County and Pueblo

Two counties that could prove decisive in Colorado are Pueblo County in central Colorado ( View on Map) and Mesa County ( View on Map) along the state's western border with Utah -- they have yet to report any results.

Mr. Romney performed well in Pueblo County in 2008, winning 62 percent of the vote. But he saw a significant decline this year in surrounding counties.

Mr. Romney took 67 percent of the vote in 2008 in Mesa County, home to Grand Junction. The county's border with Utah means that it has a larger Mormon population. But we have seen very few results so from counties that border Utah, so it is hard to anticipate how well Mr. Romney's numbers will hold up there.

- Nate Silver 0:29 A.M. |Romney Wins Denver

Mitt Romney got a decent result in Denver County ( View on Map), taking 40 percent of the vote there to Rick Santorum's 29 percent.

However, as was also the case in the Denver suburbs, turnout was down from 2008 -- 3,249 votes tonight versus 4,071 four years ago -- somewhat blunting the impact.

Mr. Romney now leads in CNN's vote count in Colorado, 37 percent to 35 percent.

However, the balance of the precincts yet to report in Colorado look slightly unfavorable to Mr. Romney. CNN's total does not include Colorado Springs, where Mr. Romney lost badly based on an account from the Denver Post. Meanwhile, most of the vote from Denver and its suburbs is accounted for.

- Nate Silver 0:24 A.M. |Colorado Springs Puts Romney in Hole in Colo.

According to Jeremy Meyer of the Denver Post, Mitt Romney is losing badly to Rick Santorum in El Paso County ( View on Map), home to Colorado Springs, trailing him by about 1,700 votes with 193 of 199 precincts reporting.

This could make Mr. Romney's math very difficult in Colorado. He won 59 percent of the vote in El Paso County in 2008, close to his statewide total. Although the area has a large number of evangelical voters, it is closer to being a swing region than other parts of the state in the context of a Republican caucus.

- Nate Silver  0:12 A.M. |Romney Tracking to 35 Percent of Vote in Colorado

Here is a chart comparing how Mitt Romney performed in each county in Colorado in 2008 as compared to tonight.

Although there has been some variance from county to county, especially in smaller areas with more idiosyncratic demographics, in general Mr. Romney is getting about 60 percent as much of the vote as he did in 2008.

That would put him on track for about 35 percent of the vote statewide, which would make tonight's result quite close.

It should be noted, however, that this method does not count for changes in turnout between 2008 and 2012. If we continue to observe a pattern wherein turnout is steady in Mr. Romney's weakest areas but poor in his stronger ones, that could put him under 35 percent of the vote, at which point it looks like he would lose to Rick Santorum.

- Nate Silver  11:47 P.M. |Colo. Turnout Up in Romney's Weakest Areas

Here's why Mitt Romney is vulnerable to a loss in Colorado tonight. Although indications are that turnout is down in the Denver suburbs, where Mr. Romney runs strongly, the same is not true in outlying areas of the state, where he is losing by a wide margin to Rick Santorum.

Some 16 counties outside of the Denver area had reported all of their results as of 11:40 P.M. In total, there were 1,512 votes in those counties, up slightly from 1,480 in 2008.

- Nate Silver  11:36 P.M. |Turnout: Adams County

As we noted, the vote shares in Adams County ( View on Map) are not encouraging for Romney supporters. But another point that stands out in the county's results are the overall vote totals.

In 2008, 3,359 Republicans caucused in Adams County. Just 2,518 people came out this year, a 25 percent drop. That disparity may not prevail through the rest of Colorado's counties. But if it does, Colorado would follow every other state that has voted except South Carolina in seeing a depressed Republican turnout compared to 2008.

- Micah Cohen  11:26 P.M. |Trouble for Romney in Adams County, Colo.

In the first two counties to report from metropolitan Denver, Mr. Romney was performing well enough that he appeared to be the favorite to win Colorado, even though his vote totals were down significantly from 2008.

But the result from Adams County - which unlike the others, has reported all of its vote - is potentially much more problematic for him. Mr. Romney won just 31 percent of the vote there, down from 67 percent in 2008.

If Mr. Romney encounters more results like that, he might be tracking more toward 30 or 35 percent of the vote in Colorado rather than 40 percent, making him much more vulnerable to a loss.

- Nate Silver  11:20 P.M. |Missouri Beauty Contest Turns Off Voters

With almost all of the votes counted in Missouri's primary tonight, turnout is tracking to about 250,000 votes.

About 590,000 Republicans voted in the Missouri primary in 2008, when the primary there counted toward delegate selection.

Incidentally, although Republicans have had disappointing turnout in some other states, I don't think that this one is in the same vein. It likely reflects the diminished importance that voters are placing on a purely symbolic contest, rather than anything more fundamental.

- Nate Silver  11:06 P.M. |Romney's County Problem

Based on the results reported as of 11 P.M., Mitt Romney was leading in no counties in either Minnesota or Missouri.

Indeed, Mr. Romney is doing quite poorly to date in the Republican race outside of wealthy urban counties, a pattern that, in general elections, is more characteristic of Democrats.

Among the five states to have voted before tonight, plus the in-progress results from Minnesota and Missouri, Mr. Romney has won only 73 counties from among the 412 to have reported results in the Republican nomination race so far, giving him an 18 percent success rate.

  10:45 P.M. |Romney Holding Serve in Denver Suburbs

The first results from the Denver metropolitan area are in and they should come as a relief to Mitt Romney. He has 49 percent of the vote in Douglas County so far and 53 percent in Arapahoe County.

In both cases, Mr. Romney's numbers are down from in 2008, when he won 72 percent in Douglas County and 66 percent in Arapahoe - but not catastrophically so given how wide Mr. Romney's margin was in Colorado that year.

If Mr. Romney gets those sort of numbers elsewhere in the Denver area, he should have a lot of cushion to do poorly elsewhere.

One important thing to watch is whether Rick Santroum is finishing second in these areas, or instead falling behind Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich. My back-of-the-envelope guess is that Mr. Romney is on track for something like 40 percent of the vote statewide or maybe just a bit shy of that. That could be enough for him to lose if most of the remaining votes are going for Mr. Santorum, but not if they are divided between several other opponents.

- Nate Silver  10:43 P.M. |Reader Comment: Romney's Strategy

A FiveThirtyEight reader, Matthew H., stepped into the shoes of a Romney campaign strategist, and made this prediction:

For the next few primaries (Arizona, Michigan and Super Tuesday), Romney is going to take no chances on relaxing his attack. And he is going to spend lots of money to advertise. I guess Romney figured that these contests were relatively low-profile and low-impact, and that even if he slipped a little, it wouldn't matter. But he isn't just slipping a little, he is getting his entire narrative of "nevability" taken apart in three geographically diverse, and important states...two of which he won in 2008.

So I expect the next few weeks to see strong negative attacks on Santorum, and Gingrich, across Arizona, Michigan and many of the Super Tuesday states...and since it cost over 10 million to advertise in Florida for a week, how much money and goodwill is Romney going to have to spend to get back to "inevability" in Michigan and Ohio?

If that prediction holds true, the Romney campaign will have plenty of time before the next contests to hammer away at its rivals. Arizona and Michigan hold their primaries on Feb. 28.

- Micah Cohen  10:26 P.M. |Viability vs. Momentum

Philip Klein at the Washington Examiner has a good article reminding us that momentum has been very weak so far in this nomination cycle. (We have written on the same theme before.)

Mitt Romney's big wins in Nevada and Florida did not seem to do him much good tonight.

The flip side is that momentum from Rick Santorum's wins in Missouri and Minnesota could evaporate by the time that Arizona and Michigan vote on Feb. 28.

But the dynamics here are different in one important respect. If Mr. Romney is having a poor night, Newt Gingrich is having an even worse one - he was not even on the ballot in Missouri and he is running in dead last in Minnesota.

Most polls of Republican voters have shown Mr. Santorum with stronger favorability ratings than Mr. Gingrich. Mr. Gingrich was doing slightly better in national polls, and in most of the recent states. But this may have been because voters thought that Mr. Gingrich was more viable than Mr. Santorum, even if they liked Mr. Santorum better.

Tonight could reverse that perception and put Mr. Gingrich in a dire position, possibly to Mr. Santorum's benefit. And those gains - which would reflect rational and strategic behavior on the part of Republican voters rather than whimsical shifts based on momentum - could possibly be longer lasting.

- Nate Silver  10:14 P.M. |Santorum Dominant in Missouri

It should be remembered that no delegates will be awarded to the winner of the primary in Missouri, which will instead hold caucuses in March. And Rick Santorum made more of an effort to win the state than the other candidates.

Still, it is harder to write the result off as a fluke given Mr. Santorum's margin of victory there - and his geographic dominance. Mr. Romney held leads early on in St. Louis City and St. Louis County, but has since lost them as more votes have been counted. In fact, Mr. Romney leads in just one Missouri county right now, Boone County, where only two precincts have reported results.

- Nate Silver 

10:12 P.M. |Hennepin County Spells Trouble for Romney

To the growing list of troubling signs for Mr. Romney in Minnesota, add this: he's currently in third place in Hennepin County. It's still early, but this is a county Mr. Romney where should have expected to do well based on history and demographics.

Hennepin County includes a chunk of Minneapolis, but it is mostly suburbs, an area dominated by more affluent, better-educated Republicans. Mr. Romney won 46 percent of the vote there in 2008.

With about a fifth of precincts reporting, Mr. Santorum leads in Hennepin County with 35 percent of the vote, followed by Mr. Paul with 29 percent. Although things could shift, Mr. Romney is on track to receive about half of his 2008 vote share there.

- Micah Cohen 9:42 P.M. |Paul Strong in Minneapolis-St. Paul

Ron Paul is leading the vote count so far in both Hennepin County and Ramsay County, home to Minneapolis and St. Paul, respectively - and to large numbers of college students. Mr. Paul looks to have decent chances of finishing ahead of Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich in Minnesota, where Rick Santorum has a lead so far.

Hennepin and Ramsey Counties are slightly ahead of the statewide pace, having reported 10 percent of their results versus 7 percent elsewhere.

- Nate Silver  9:22 P.M. |How Safe Is Romney in Colorado?

It's still very early, but Mitt Romney is having a poor night in Minnesota so far. He's losing in each of the seven counties that have reported caucus results and is in third place in many of them, putting him about 28 points behind Rick Santorum statewide.

Mr. Romney is also struggling in Missouri so far, although it's harder to extrapolate the results in that state because of its stark urban-rural divide.

Still, based on the results we have so far, it appears as though Mr. Santorum could beat his polling by a decent margin in both Minnesota and Missouri. Polling errors are often strongly correlated when states vote on the same night, and if Mr. Santorum did the same thing in Colorado - where he trailed Mr. Romney by 10 points in the Public Policy Polling survey there - he could go three-for-three tonight.

- Nate Silver  9:01 P.M. |Intrade Confident of Santorum Win in Minnesota

Although only four counties have reported portions of their results so far in Minnesota, they represent fairly diverse cross-section of the state geographically and demographically, and Rick Santorum is winning each of them so far.

The betting market Intrade now gives Mr. Santorum a 96 percent chance of winning Minnesota, up from about 80 percent before the vote-counting began.

- Nate Silver

TwentyTwelve  posted on  2012-02-08   1:05:41 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  

Silver and Cohen. See the pattern?

More to the point, I know a dozen or so people who were at their various districts, and ALL of them Ron Paul beat everyone. Yet, this morning when I woke up, I heard that Scrotorum had won. I am having one hell of a time believing that. I truly am, considering the Independent Party had their Caucus too, and they had a pretty good turn out. I know the fix is in, because at my district there were some people acting a little strange while doing the count, but there was a scene made when someone demanded to witness the count. Then a dozen of us watched the count. After the count, we had our representatives turn in the vote. The thing is, I am convinced that if nobody had objected, my district would have fallen into Santorum hands.

The thing I'm seeing in my state, since it's a non-binding caucus, is the turn out being much higher for Ron Paul across the board. In March when we have Super Tuesday, That's when we'll know that the fix is truly in.

TommyTheMadArtist  posted on  2012-02-08   14:01:13 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  

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