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Title: Romney's struggles fuel talk of brokered convention
Source:
reuters
URL Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012 ... nvention-idUSTRE81H04520120218
Published: Feb 18, 2012
Author: Steve Holland
Post Date: 2012-02-18 18:57:09 by farmfriend
Keywords: None
Views: 312
Comments: 21
By Steve Holland (Reuters) - Presidential hopeful Mitt Romney's struggles in Michigan are fueling speculation that Republicans might have to resort to a doomsday scenario and launch a frantic search for a 2012 savior at their nominating convention in late August. Rare in the modern age of U.S. politics, a "brokered convention" could result in Republicans ditching their current crop of candidates and turning to someone else who they feel would have a better chance of defeating Democratic President Barack Obama in the November 6 election. How did Republicans get to this point? Romney's failure to get conservatives fully behind him and put down yet another challenger in the party - this time it's Rick Santorum - is causing angst in the party. Many senior Republicans do not think Santorum, a social conservative caught up in the U.S. culture wars over issues like abortion and contraception, has a chance to beat Obama if he wins the party's presidential nomination. When he ran for re-election as a U.S. senator from Pennsylvania in 2006, Santorum lost by 18 percentage points. But, nevertheless, he is exposing Romney's weaknesses in Michigan, where Santorum leads polls ahead of the big Midwestern state's February 28 primary. A Romney loss to Santorum in Michigan, the state where he was born and where his father was governor, would only intensify the talk about a weak Republican field and feed demands for someone else as the party's candidate to challenge Obama. "It's hard for me to see how Romney rights the ship if he loses Michigan," said Republican strategist Matt Mackowiak. "There is no level of spin that can overcome that disaster." Michigan will set the table for "Super Tuesday," the March 6 jackpot when 10 states hold Republican nominating contests. A loss for Romney in Michigan would raise serious doubts over whether he can rally enough support to have a big day on Super Tuesday and make a big move toward clinching the nomination. The candidates are engaging in a state-by-state battle to become the Republican nominee. The party will officially pick a nominee at its August convention in Tampa, Florida. Romney is the best financed and organized of the Republican candidates and long has been considered the likely nominee. But the former Massachusetts governor and private equity executive has failed so far to take control of the race. Who would Republicans turn to if not Romney or Santorum? Think of two popular governors, Mitch Daniels of Indiana and Chris Christie of New Jersey, or former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, or even U.S. congressman Paul Ryan, author of a budget plan popular with Republicans. All four men turned down appeals to run for president earlier in the campaign but might be persuaded to jump in with enough arm-twisting. PALIN OFFERS HELP Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, a champion of the conservative Tea Party movement, is making noises about being willing to "help" at a brokered convention. That notion sounds suspiciously like she would love to have her own name thrown into the mix, if even only as a kingmaker. "We could be looking at a brokered convention," she told Fox Business Network on Wednesday. "Months from now, if that's the case, all bets are off as to who it will be willing to offer up themselves ... in service to their country. I would do whatever I could to help." The Republican race could turn into a math problem. The nominee this year needs 1,144 nominating delegates to secure the nomination at the convention. Each state is allocated a certain number of delegates to the convention based on its population. This year in many states, the delegate count is proportional to the vote they receive in a nominating contest, instead of winner-take-all. That means a candidate who does not come in first in a particular state could still pick up some delegates to the convention. On Super Tuesday there is the potential for Romney and Santorum, along with the other two candidates Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul, to split the delegates, making it harder for anyone to get to the magic number of 1,144 before Republicans pick their candidate in August. South Carolina Senator Jim DeMint told CNN the way delegates are divided means "it could very well go to the convention." Once the convention rolls around, the candidates could do some horse-trading to try to peel away delegates from their rivals and get to the magic number. But if that fails, then party regulars could try to draft someone else into the race. The appeal of such a move for someone like Daniels or Christie would be that they would have to campaign for essentially only two months, September and October, and could end up in the White House or have some momentum looking ahead to the 2016 presidential race, when they might have a better shot. While a brokered convention is an intriguing scenario, the odds are always against it. University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato first raised the idea of a brokered convention back in December and says he immediately got calls from establishment party figures in politics and the news media to discuss the prospect. "They had already realized that this field was really weak," Sabato said. "They were already trying to think of a way to get to a brokered convention." A staggered Romney could trigger a move to find a fresh face to run in a way that would avoid a brokered convention. There is still time for a candidate to get his or her name on the ballot for nominating contests in big states like California, New York and New Jersey. The winner could gain major momentum and the ability to peel away delegates from the others. "If you see Romney lose Michigan, I think there is just going to be a cry for another candidate who is not Mitt Romney or Rick Santorum," said Jennifer Duffy, a political analyst at the non-partisan Cook Political Report. Romney's struggles fuel talk of brokered convention
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#1. To: farmfriend (#0)
BOHICA!! Another damn Bush..... Jeb Bush
-Alex Kurtagic
#2. To: farmfriend (#0)
In the 1860 Republican Convention, William H. Seward of NY entered the convention with a plurality of delegates, but not a majority. Abraham Lincoln entered the convention considerably behind in delegates, but it turned out on the third round of voting, the dark horse candidate, Lincoln got his party's nomination and the rest, as they say, is history. Some have suggested that Lincoln won on the strength of his support from West Virginia, which wanted a strong candidate so they could take a stand for the Union.
#3. To: farmfriend (#0)
Anytime no candidate has a clear majority of the delegates going into the convention, it's a brokered convention to some extent. Among three or four or more candidates, somebody's going to be approached to drop out and endorse one of the others in return for something (usually high office, sometimes a policy change -- and often a broken promise). So it's not like Romney's doing this for spite; I'm sure if he had his way, he'd go in with the majority in the bag. It's some of the stragglers in this campaign, who are going to those proportional primaries, hoping to nab five votes here and ten votes there, who are determined to make this a brokered convention - where they can sell their delegates in return for something to boost their ego/agenda.
#4. To: farmfriend (#0)
Rare in the modern age of U.S. politics, a "brokered convention" could result in Republicans ditching their current crop of candidates and turning to someone else who they feel would have a better chance of defeating Democratic President Barack Obama in the November 6 election. Notice which candidate gets no mention? Presidential hopeful Mitt Romney's struggles in Michigan are fueling speculation that Republicans might have to resort to a doomsday scenario and launch a frantic search for a 2012 savior at their nominating convention in late August.
#5. To: CadetD (#4)
yes actually I did. and it will be interesting to see what happens with the delegates he has garnered unnoticed. Notice which candidate gets no mention?
changing the puppet does not change the play.
#6. To: farmfriend (#5)
Texas has been making noise about moving its primaries to very end of May (supposedly a result of re-districting bickering), with its GOP convention being the NEXT weekend in Fort Worth. The verdict is still out...they might offer to allow the presidential primaries be held on-time separate from rest of ballot. it will be interesting to see what happens with the delegates he has garnered unnoticed.
#7. To: CadetD (#6)
I think California's are in June. I still need to re-register so I can vote for Paul.
changing the puppet does not change the play.
#8. To: farmfriend (#7)
I still need to re-register so I can vote for Paul. My point being that people getting selected as state convention delegates would have very little time to plan their travel/stay to the convention--RP is from Texas, after all. You should try to become a delegate to the California convention...attending your precinct caucus post-poll closing time. Everybody should do this in their respective precincts. being the NEXT weekend in Fort Worth....
#9. To: CadetD (#6)
The Republican Convention is early July. The last scheduled primary is Utah for June 25th. It appears that the Republicans in Texas are threatening to deliberately delay the Republican primary if they don't get their way about redistricting. The problem is like The Ransom of Redchief: Delaying the primary only reduces the leverage of Texas Republicans among their own party, with the result that after the Texas Republicans can't expect much backup from other Repubs; Texas Dems would love to see the Republicans shoot themselves in the foot this way. Ultimately redistricting will probably favor the Dems.
#10. To: Shoonra (#9)
National convention is August 27-30 in Tampa, Florida. The Republican Convention is early July
#11. To: farmfriend (#0)
I just came across this: http://www.mediaite.com/tv/top-g...blicly-call-for-jeb-bush/
#12. To: CadetD, farmfriend (#11)
Yeah, Jebby's name started getting floated a good month to six weeks ago. We're being set up again. It's like the Italian Basketball Mechanic: "Da Fix is in."
#13. To: Shoonra, CadetD (#9)
Ron Paul's Delegate Advantage | Ron Paul 2012 Presidential Campaign Committee Ron Paul’s Delegate Advantage Writes Katrina Trinko at National Review: If you think Rick Santorum won Iowa, Minnesota, and Colorado, you’re wrong. Let me explain: Santorum did win the caucus votes in all those states. But because none of those states have bound delegates, that means the state’s delegates to the national convention could theoretically vote for someone besides Santorum for the nomination, someone like say, Ron Paul, whose campaign is aggressively working to control as many state delegates as possible. In Minnesota, where Paul nabbed 27 percent of the caucus vote, the Paul campaign estimates that 75 percent of the current delegates are Paul supporters. In Colorado, where Paul got 12 percent of the vote, 50 percent of the delegates are Paul supporters. Now delegates face elimination rounds, so it’s unclear if the Paul campaign will be successful or not in maintaining these percentages. But the campaign is hoping to pull it off. From my piece today: The campaign refuses to worry about backlash from the party if its plan succeeds, and Paul’s percentage of delegates at the convention is significantly higher than his percentage of votes. “We think that’s the way a party should really pick its nominee,” [Paul national campaign chairman Jesse] Benton says. “We think that the activists that are most tuned in to the issues, most engaged in the process should be the ones selecting the nominee.” It’s true that most states have bound delegates (or at least the vast majority of delegates are bound), so this strategy has limits. But if there is a brokered convention — which is not out of the realm of possibility this cycle — it will matter if most or a significant chunk of delegates are Paul supporters… The Republican Convention is early July. The last scheduled primary is Utah for June 25th.
#14. To: All (#9)
My mistake. The Republican National Convention is scheduled for August 27-30 in Tampa, Fla. The last scheduled primary is June 25th (Utah).
#15. To: All (#0)
So, what they're saying is that all of those deadline rules for candidates to get on state ballots don't apply to the Specialer Republican "strategists" if they want to ditch 'em all for "another candidate" who didn't have to meet those requirements and filing fees, didn't have do any fundraising or spend any money, didn't have to debate umpteen times, didn't have to endure any unfavorable press, didn't have to do any campaign-trail traveling or work at all, and they can disenfrachise all of our votes if they wanna pretend to be "kingmakers" in this country? Surely they jest or think they're in jolly ole England or are powermad or something. Obviously, they don't want to defeat Obama who shouldn't even be on the ballot or Romney either due to unverified Article II citizenship status. If they wanted to defeat Obama by votes, they'd be backing Ron Paul who has huge crowds of supporters at his speeches -- waiting in droves outside in the winter even, rain and snow, because his events are booked to capacity. So many thousands that he's been speaking outside as well for those who weren't able to get in. a "brokered convention" could result in Republicans ditching their current crop of candidates and turning to someone else who they feel would have a better chance of defeating Democratic President Barack Obama in the November 6 election.
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"They're on our left, they're on our right, they're in front of us, they're behind us...they can't get away this time." -- Col. Puller, USMC
#16. To: All (#15)
Ron Paul - Vancouver Washington - Supporters overflowing - 2/16/2012
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"They're on our left, they're on our right, they're in front of us, they're behind us...they can't get away this time." -- Col. Puller, USMC
#17. To: farmfriend, All (#0)
First Amendment Rights - Detroit Silverdome for Ron Paul effort. People might still be lined up outside if it got booked to capacity but I like that idea. "It's hard for me to see how Romney rights the ship if he loses Michigan," said Republican strategist Matt Mackowiak. "There is no level of spin that can overcome that disaster."
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"They're on our left, they're on our right, they're in front of us, they're behind us...they can't get away this time." -- Col. Puller, USMC
#18. To: All (#15) (Edited)
Ron Paul Vancouver, WA 02/16/2012 - speaking outside to the crowd that couldn't get into the building for his speech there Ron Paul in Richland - speaking outside to the crowd that couldn't get into the building for his speech there Ron Paul - In Spokane, WA. February 17, 2012 - 2,500+ made it into the convention center Ron Paul in Seattle - Over 3000 supporters! 2/16/2012: "They had to stop letting people in because there were so many. After the speech quite a few people left but the ballroom filled up to capacity again when the people that were outside the doors came in. These are historic times. This is a New American Revolution and Ron Paul is the pioneer paving the way for future generations." 3000 + @ Ron Paul KC Union Train Station Speech Kansas City Mo.: "I appologize about the very poor video quality. I put this on here to show everybody that around 3000 people showed up to see Dr. Paul" Ron Paul at the Century Link Arena in Boise on Feb. 18, 2012 Edited for sequence and last link.
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"They're on our left, they're on our right, they're in front of us, they're behind us...they can't get away this time." -- Col. Puller, USMC
#19. To: farmfriend (#7)
#20. To: Ferret (#19)
that one is good. I should add it to my collection.
changing the puppet does not change the play.
#21. To: Ferret (#19)
changing the puppet does not change the play.
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