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(s)Elections See other (s)Elections Articles Title: In Presidential Election, Age Is a Factor Only Among Whites May 18, 2012 PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama maintains a substantial edge over Mitt Romney among voters younger than age 40, while Romney wins among those 40 and older. Obama does best among those 18 to 29, beating Romney by 21 percentage points, while Romney's best group is those aged 70 and older, among whom he wins over Obama by a 14-point margin. These results are based on an analysis of more than 15,000 Gallup Daily tracking interviews with registered voters, conducted from April 11-May 16, 2012. Overall, Obama and Romney are tied over this period, with 46% support each. The race is most competitive among 50- to 59-year-old voters, who tilt slightly toward Romney by 47% to 44%. Those aged 40 to 49 and 60 to 69 support Romney by slightly larger seven-point margins. But among the youngest American voters, those younger than 30, the race is highly one-sided. These young voters give Obama a 56% to 35% lead. On the other hand, among seniors 70 and older, Romney leads by 53% to 39%. Younger voters' lower likelihood to vote, however, underscores a particular challenge facing the Obama campaign. Americans younger than 40, and particularly those younger than 30, are less likely to say they will definitely vote than are those 40 and older -- precisely those who are most likely to support Romney. Age Makes Little Difference Among Nonwhite Voters The impact of age on voting intentions is driven almost entirely by differences among non-Hispanic whites. Age makes little difference in voting preferences among nonwhites, more than 70% of whom support Obama regardless of their age category. Support is at least marginally higher for Romney than for Obama among all age groups of whites, but rises substantially among those 40 and older, as it does among all Americans. The Republican nominee is ahead by a slim two points among whites aged 18 to 29 but by 25 points among whites aged 40 to 49. Among nonwhites, Obama's margin over Romney changes only slightly, ranging from 57 to 63 points. Implications In 2012, age is a significant correlate of voting behavior -- as has been well established in previous elections -- but basically only among non-Hispanic white voters. Nonwhite voters are so strong in their support for Obama that age makes little difference. Gallup's large sample sizes allow for a more detailed analysis of age than is usually possible with single surveys. This analysis is based on more than 15,000 interviews conducted from April 11 to mid-May, and shows that while the race is a dead heat over that time across all voters, Obama wins by large margins among all nonwhite age groups. On the other hand, Romney's edge over Obama among whites ranges from a slim two points among 18- to 29-year-olds to 25 points among 40- to 49-year-olds. Among all Americans, age is a predictor of voter turnout. Voters younger than 40 are significantly less likely to say they will definitely vote than are those 40 and older -- presenting a challenge for the Obama campaign as it attempts to maximize its relative advantage among the younger group. Poster Comment: Intertops current odds: Obama: 1.35 to 1 Post Comment Private Reply Ignore Thread
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