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Immigration See other Immigration Articles Title: Projecting Immigration’s Impact on the Size and Age Structure of the 21st Century American Population Using data provided by the U.S. Census Bureau, this study first recreates the Bureau's most recent population projections. We then vary the level of net immigration (the difference between those coming and those leaving) to discern its impact on the U.S. population. The findings show that immigration makes for a much larger overall population, while having only a small effect on slowing the aging of American society. Among the findings: If immigration continues as the Census Bureau expects, the nation's population will increase from 309 million in 2010 to 436 million in 2050 — a 127 million (41 percent) increase. The projected increase of 127 million is larger than the combined populations of Great Britain and France. It also exceeds the entire U.S. population in 1930. The Census Bureau assumes net immigration (legal and illegal) by 2050 will total 68 million. These future immigrants plus their descendants will add 96 million residents to the U.S. population, accounting for three-fourths of future population growth. Even if immigration is half what the Census Bureau expects, the population will still grow 79 million by 2050, with immigration accounting for 61 percent of population growth. Without any immigration, the U.S. population will increase by 31 million by 2050. Though projections past 2050 are much more speculative, if the level of immigration the Census Bureau foresees in 2050 were to continue after that date, the U.S. population would reach 618 million by 2100 — double the 2010 population. The immigrant (legal and illegal) share of the population will reach one in six U.S. residents by 2030, a new record, and nearly one in five residents by 2050. The above projections follow the Census Bureau's assumptions about future levels of immigration, as well as death and birth rates, including a decline in the birth rate for Hispanics. Consistent with prior research, the projections show immigration only slightly increases the working-age (18 to 65) share of the population. Assuming the Census Bureau's immigration level, 58 percent of the population will be of working-age in 2050, compared to 57 percent if there is no immigration. Raising the retirement age by one year would have a larger positive impact on the working-age share over the next 40 years than would the Census Bureau's total projected level of net immigration (68 million). While immigrants do tend to arrive relatively young and have higher fertility than natives, immigrants age just like everyone else, and the differences with natives are not large enough to fundamentally increase the share of the population who are potential workers. The Center for Immigration Studies, as well as other researchers, has reported that immigration levels have fallen somewhat in recent years. While there is no way to know if the level will remain lower, this change can be incorporated into these projections. Assuming immigration is one-third below what the Census Bureau's expects for 10 years (2010-2020) produces a total U.S. population of 428 million in 2050 — a 118 million increase over 2010. By itself immigration would account for 87 million additional U.S. residents under this scenario. A one-third reduction in the Census Bureau's level of immigration over the entirety of the next four decades (2010-2050) produces a total U.S. population of 404 million in 2050 — a 95 million increase over 2010. By itself immigration would account for 64 million additional U.S. residents under this scenario. Because the underlying level of immigration is so high, even a one-third reduction in what the Bureau expects over the next four decades would still add tens of millions of new residents to the U.S. population and account for most of the population growth. The importance of immigration to population growth can be seen by projecting the impact of reduced fertility. If the fertility of natives were to fall 20 percent more than the Census expects by 2030, but immigration continued at the pace the Bureau expects, the U.S. population would still grow to 409 million by 2050 — a 99 million increase over 2010. Immigration is a discretionary policy of the government and can be changed. The fundamental question for the American public and policy makers is whether a much larger population and the resulting greater population density will add to or diminish the quality of life in the United States. Poster Comment: Key points to consider: snip The findings show that immigration makes for a much larger overall population, while having only a small effect on slowing the aging of American society. If immigration continues as the Census Bureau expects, the nation's population will increase from 309 million in 2010 to 436 million in 2050 — a 127 million (41 percent) increase. The immigrant (legal and illegal) share of the population will reach one in six U.S. residents by 2030, a new record, and nearly one in five residents by 2050. Immigration is a discretionary policy of the government and can be changed. The fundamental question for the American public and policy makers is whether a much larger population and the resulting greater population density will add to or diminish the quality of life in the United States. Post Comment Private Reply Ignore Thread Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest
#1. To: scrapper2 (#0)
Roy beck has been preaching this clearly since at least 2000. IN VAIN! IT IS TOO LATE! Who is it that wants (needs) to destroy this country so bad? “Anti-semitism is a disease–you catch it from Jews”–Edgar J. Steele “The jew cries out in pain, as he strikes you.”–Polish proverb “I would like to express my heartfelt apologies for the unfortunate and tasteless quotes I published in my tag lines. I am very sorry and ashamed. I never wanted to offend anyone, or to encroach human rights."- Hmmmmm
No it's not too late. But it's getting close. Immigration is a DISCRETIONARY gov't policy, as the article points out. It can be changed. The whole charade of immigration needed to keep the population young and productive is B.S. as Camorota demonstrates. The major problem I see is the lack of true statistically based info provided to the public by MSM. And MSM is owned by a handful of globalists who are very much pro-browning of America with floods of uneducated, unskilled Third Worlders, which also serves to dumb the nation down - another thing viewed as a benefit by globalist elites. Btw, I'm not against legal immigration per se, irrespective of color or country of origin, as long as the nation benefits from needed skills that educated immigrants can bring. But legal immigration needs to be controlled and it needs to be responsive to our nation's employment needs. It can't be carved in stone. This holus bolus family reunification nonsense is just that. Illegal immigration should be a felony not a misdemeanor and it should result in immediate deportation, with visitation to our nation prohibited for 10 years. Anchor baby citizenship should be challenged at the Supreme Court level like yesterday.
Globalists, I've heard of them. Careful, or you'll need to borrow one of my tags. It would seem to be harder to control an educated homogenous population. “Anti-semitism is a disease–you catch it from Jews”–Edgar J. Steele “The jew cries out in pain, as he strikes you.”–Polish proverb “I would like to express my heartfelt apologies for the unfortunate and tasteless quotes I published in my tag lines. I am very sorry and ashamed. I never wanted to offend anyone, or to encroach human rights."- Hmmmmm
Increased demands on resources will doubtlessly result in more Zero Population Growth education in our suburban and rural communities.
"I am not one of those weak-spirited, sappy Americans who want to be liked by all the people around them. I don’t care if people hate my guts; I assume most of them do. The important question is whether they are in a position to do anything about it." - William S Burroughs
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