The United States has never defaulted on its debt, but, with the political gridlock in Washington D.C., it seems that the unthinkable might happen as the United States approaches its limit to borrow. "Treasury Secretary Jack Lew told Congress [October 1] that the U.S. government has started to use the last of its 'extraordinary measures' to ensure it stays below the debt ceiling," according to CNNMoney, but the secretary believes that the government "will run out of extraordinary measures no later than Oct. 17."
Even the most hard-headed politicians probably recognize that its best not to allow the federal government to default on its obligations. But the clock is ticking.
Many people also believe that it would be unlikely for a state to default on its debt. But did you know that it has happened before?
States splurged on new programs. Then it all went bust, bringing down banks and state governments with them. This wasn't [recent] America, it was America in 1841, when a now-forgotten depression pushed eight states and a desolate territory called Florida into the unthinkable: They defaulted on debts.
-- Wall Street Journal, Jan. 4, 2011
The 1835-1842 depression was the country's first major economic downturn. The next major depression was the one between 1929 and 1932. Is the next one due? If you believe the next deflationary depression is set to occur sooner than later, beware that bonds -- even issues that are perceived to be the safest -- can sink in value, as Robert Prechter describes in his business best seller, Conquer the Crash.
In the United States, defaults on municipal bonds could occur at any moment after times get difficult. Politicians in many jurisdictions have borrowed and spent way more money than is likely ever to be paid back. Merely paying the interest on that debt in tough economic times will become an acute problem for many issuers. In such cases, default for many cities and counties will be inevitable. Even the debt of some higher-level government agencies is at serious risk of default in a worst-case scenario.
-- Conquer the Crash, second edition, p. 149
As you probably know, in recent years, several major U.S. cities, including Detroit, have defaulted on their debt. And these defaults occurred during an economic recovery. Imagine the scenario during the next economic downturn. Who's to say that even a state, or several states, will be spared from default? Some states are already having a hard time paying their bills. And, remember, even the fear of default will cause bond investors to lose money.
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