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Science/Tech See other Science/Tech Articles Title: Humans will be extinct in 100 years says eminent scientist http://(PhysOrg.com) -- Eminent Australian scientist Professor Frank Fenner, who helped to wipe out smallpox, predicts humans will probably be extinct within 100 years, because of overpopulation, environmental destruction and climate change. COMSOL Multiphysics Product Booklet See the latest in simulation and application design. Complimentary access. http://www.comsol.com Corporate sponsor program Fenner, who is emeritus professor of microbiology at the Australian National University (ANU) in Canberra, said homo sapiens will not be able to survive the population explosion and “unbridled consumption,” and will become extinct, perhaps within a century, along with many other species. United Nations official figures from last year estimate the human population is 6.8 billion, and is predicted to pass seven billion next year. Fenner told The Australian he tries not to express his pessimism because people are trying to do something, but keep putting it off. He said he believes the situation is irreversible, and it is too late because the effects we have had on Earth since industrialization (a period now known to scientists unofficially as the Anthropocene) rivals any effects of ice ages or comet impacts. World population growth chart World population growth chart. Fenner said that climate change is only at its beginning, but is likely to be the cause of our extinction. “We’ll undergo the same fate as the people on Easter Island,” he said. More people means fewer resources, and Fenner predicts “there will be a lot more wars over food.” Easter Island is famous for its massive stone statues. Polynesian people settled there, in what was then a pristine tropical island, around the middle of the first millennium AD. The population grew slowly at first and then exploded. As the population grew the forests were wiped out and all the tree animals became extinct, both with devastating consequences. After about 1600 the civilization began to collapse, and had virtually disappeared by the mid-19th century. Evolutionary biologist Jared Diamond said the parallels between what happened on Easter Island and what is occurring today on the planet as a whole are “chillingly obvious.” While many scientists are also pessimistic, others are more optimistic. Among the latter is a colleague of Professor Fenner, retired professor Stephen Boyden, who said he still hopes awareness of the problems will rise and the required revolutionary changes will be made to achieve ecological sustainability. “While there's a glimmer of hope, it's worth working to solve the problem. We have the scientific knowledge to do it but we don't have the political will,” Boyden said. Fenner, 95, is the author or co-author of 22 books and 290 scientific papers and book chapters. His announcement in 1980 to the World Health Assembly that smallpox had been eradicated is still seen as one of the World Health Organisation’s greatest achievements. He has also been heavily involved in controlling Australia’s feral rabbit population with the myxomatosis virus. Professor Fenner has had a lifetime interest in the environment, and from 1973 to 1979 was Director of the Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies at ANU. He is currently a visiting fellow at the John Curtin School of Medical Research at the university, and is a patron of Sustainable Population Australia. He has won numerous awards including the ANZAC Peace Prize, the WHO Medal, and the Albert Einstein World Award of Science. He was awarded an MBE for his work on control of malaria in New Guinea during the Second World War, in which Fenner served in the Royal Australian Army Medical Corps. Professor Fenner will open the Healthy Climate, Planet and People symposium at the Australian Academy of Science next week. More information: http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/worldbalance/easter.html © 2010 http://PhysOrg.com Poster Comment: ealex 4 / 5 (17) Jun 23, 2010 This is just alarmist fear-mongering, which is surprising and disappointing from a scientist of his supposed caliber. Mass death? Sure. Drastic reduction in population, again, entirely possible, all it would take is one kick-ass airborne virus. But you always have to take into consideration that the ARE communities of people living in isolated and remote areas that will not be hit as hard by whatever hits densely populated areas. More so, most countries have various fall-back mechanisms in case of catastrophe to ensure some level of survival of the species (bunkers, shelters, seed vaults, etc) and certainly more than we as a public know of. So it would be fairly safe to say that excluding the most catastrophic of events, we will NOT go extinct anytime soon. A lot of us might die, granted, but then again, within 100 years, all of us discussing this here will be dead anyway. Concern should be raised and educated, but not through extremist stances and statements, just IMHO. SteveL 4.5 / 5 (4) Jun 23, 2010 Extinct in 100 years? Highly unlikely. As mentioned before there are people living in secluded and self reliant societies that will survive just about anything short of a nuclear, solar or impact event. Diseases may rampage population centers and trade routes until natural thinning is complete. Over consumption of available energy, water or food will cause rationing and wars - again thinning the population to a naturally sustainable level. But extinction? I highly doubt it. Civilizations have grown to prominance before and collapsed for one reason or another into a subsequent dark age. What makes us so special this time so that it "can't" happen to us? Every thinking person knows there is a limit to the resources upon which our society depends. Any remaining humanity will have to re-learn how to live with what nature provides. Unless of course we eventually learn how to leave the cradle and become a multi-planet species - before the next die off. Post Comment Private Reply Ignore Thread Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 1.
#1. To: Tatarewicz (#0)
Congratulations -- your scenario is about as grim as his. Bunkers and shelters are for a tiny minority of the financial elite. If mother nature is that upset with us, who could blame her?
There are no replies to Comment # 1. End Trace Mode for Comment # 1.
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