http://www.newyorker.com/magazin.../07/20/the-really-big-one
Poster Comment:
It has also been estimated that over the last ten thousand years a major quake hit at this fault every 250 or so years. Twenty or so years ago scientists figured that there had been a 9.0 earthquake centered in around Portland, Oregon in 1700; there have been no major quakes since then. It's gonna happen (1-in-3 chance for an 8 quake in the next 50 years, a 1-in-10 chance for a 9) and it's gonna be bad, in part because so many buildings were built before it was recognized that the Pacific Northwest was in a serious seismic zone.
"Everything west of I-5 is going to be wiped out."