Yardeni: Next Recession 2019
By Dan Weil | Monday, 27 Jul 2015 09:19 AM
Some economists expect a recession to begin soon. They say we're due because historically recessions have occurred every five to 10 years, and our last one ended in 2009.
But ace economist Edward Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, says the next recession may not come until March 2019. That's based on the movement of the Index of Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI) over the past five business cycles, he explains in a commentary provided to Newsmax Finance.
"It has taken 68 months — from January 2008 through October 2013 — for the CEI to fully recover from its severe decline during 2008 and early 2009," he writes. The average time for a full recovery in the last five cycles was 26 months, with a range of 19-33 months.
"The good news is that the average increase in the CEI following each of those recovery periods through the next peak was 18.6 percent," with an average period of 65 months and a range of 30 to 104 months, Yardeni says.
"If we apply this average to the current cycle, then the CEI would peak in 45 more months, during March 2019, with a substantial gain from here."
The last economic-growth period lasted from 2001-2007.
The economy hasn't exactly blown anyone's socks off in the first half of the year, with GDP shrinking 0.2 percent in the first quarter and the Atlanta Fed's forecasting model indicating growth of 2.4 percent for the second quarter.
But better times are ahead, says MarketWatch chief economist Irwin Kellner. "If the MarketWatch consensus is correct, third-quarter growth could hit the tape at 3 percent or better," he writes.
And what is fueling the strength? Of course, there's the Federal Reserve's low interest-rate policy, Kellner writes. While the Fed is likely to begin raising rates this year, it's highly unlikely to push the federal funds target rate much above its current record low of zero to 0.25 percent.
Lower gasoline prices also are playing a role, he says. The national price average now totals $2.71 a gallon, down 23 percent from $3.53 a year ago, according to AAA.
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Poster Comment:
When the recession hits, it will likely be a whopper.